Four Mega TrendsFour Mega Trends

Ray McNultyRay McNultySenior Vice PresidentSenior Vice President

International Center for Leadership in Education

Hawaii January 22-23, 2007

Impacting High School Reinvention

Themes

1. Some Thoughts

2. Educational Challenges

3. Four Megatrends

Class of 2017

Dreams of the children we have

Success to Significance

Some thoughts…

REFORM

What are some thoughts that come to mind when you hear this word?

RENEWAL

Rigor/Relevance - AllRigor/Relevance - All

WhyWhy

Do We Need Do We Need

to Changeto Change

Schools?Schools?

WhatWhat

Needs to Needs to

Be Done?Be Done?

HowHow

Do We DoDo We Do

It?It?

THE IMPLEMENTATION DIP….

THE POSSIBILITY CURVE..

Fullan--1990

Epidemic of Immediacy

• Clock of the Long Now….

REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS

“Law will be simplified. . .Lawyers will have diminished, and their fees will have been vastly curtailed.”

Journalist Junius Henri Browne, 1893

REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS

“Before man reaches the moon your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail.”

Arthur Summerfield, US Postmaster General under Eisenhower, 1959.

REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS

“Daily toil . . . will be shortened to four or five hours” U.S. Senator W.A. Peffer of Kansas, 1893.

“There will be no epidemics. There will be no incurable diseases.” Norman Bel Geddes in Ladies’ Home Journal, 1931.

DEMASTIFICATION

We have as a people, fewer shared experiences.

Choice Cable Stations

DISINTERMEDIATION

Printing Press

EDUCATIONAL TRENDS

Trends

A Fundamental ChallengeChanging Perceptions and Increased

ExpectationsSecondary Focus – College and Work Ready

Fundamental Challenge

Changing the expectations of educators, parents, community

members and students regarding what is possible.

All students graduate as strong citizens ready for college and work.

“Ready for college and work” means that students:

• have strong reading, writing and math skills

• are prepared for a range of post-secondary options

• become informed citizens who can grapple with tough social problems

NAEP Reading, 17 Year-Olds

220

240

260

280

300

320

1971 1975 1980 1984 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2004

Avera

ge S

cale

Sco

re

African American Latino White

21 29

NAEP Math, 17 Year-Olds

220

240

260

280

300

320

1973 1978 1982 1986 1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2004

Avera

ge S

cale

Sco

re

African American Latino White

20 28

College Algebra

Required Skills:Add, subtract, multiply, divide and

simplify rational expressionsUnderstand functional notation Solve systems of two linear equations

in two variablesSolve quadratic equations in one

variableGraph a linear equation and quadratic

functionDetermine the perimeter and the

circumference of geometric shapesRepresent geometric objects and

figures algebraically

There has also been a skills convergence: high school graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those

entering college

Source: American Diploma Project, 2003

Machine OperatorEastman Chemical Company

Required Skills:Calculate and apply ratios, proportions and

percentages to solve problemsAdd, subtract, multiply, divide and

simplify rational expressionsRecognize and solve problems using a

linear equation and one variableApply principals in equations involving

measurementsDetermine the perimeter and the

circumference of geometric shapes

• Colleges and employers demand similar knowledge and skill sets

• In math, they require algebra, data analysis, and statistics

• In English they demand strong oral and written communication skills, analytical and research skills

Changing Perceptions and Increased Expectations

• The growing need for personalization and customization will influence not only the way that business is conducted but also how schools will function.

Four Mega Trends

Challenges

• Globalization

• Demographics

• Values / Beliefs

• Technology

GlobalizationGlobalization

• 9/11

• 11/9

• Information Tech (Work to Worker)

GlobalizationGlobalization

• Tax Returns

• MRIs

• Reuters

• McDonalds

• A- Level

ChinaChina

• Clothes / Shoes

• Furniture

• Consumer Electronics

• Computers

• Bio Technology

Cities with 1 Million PeopleCities with 1 Million People

• United States

• Eastern / Western Europe

• China (2006)

• China (2020)

9

36

100 +

160 +

Number of ParticipantsIntel International Science

Competition

• U.S. 50,000

• China 6 Million

SOURCE: Craig Barrett, CEO Intel

ChinaChina• World Class for 10%• K – 12 Universal by 2020• 100 World Class Universities• 30 World Class Research Universities• Math /Science Focus (Specialist – 3rd Grade on)• International Orientation (110 Million – English)• Coherent Teacher Preparation• Early Childhood (3 year old – universal by 2015)• Career Focus

Source: Education in China: Lessons for U.S. Educators, Asia Society – Business Roundtable, CCSSO

Challenges

• Globalization

• Demographics

• Values / Beliefs

• Technology

Start WorkingEnd WorkingLongevity

1900 2000 2100

47

62

77

21

62

1418

107

Over 85Over 85

• 1994 3.5 Million

• 2020 7 Million

• 2050 27 Million

• 1910 3.0 / 100

Demographics / Economic

• 1946 4.6 / 100

• 2000 1.4 – 1.8 / 100

MedicareMedicare

• 2004 9 %

• 2020 25 %

• 2040 50 %

Registered VotersRegistered VotersSchool Age ChildrenSchool Age Children

• 1960 50 %

• 2005 18 %

Challenges

• Globalization

• Demographics

• Values / Beliefs

• Technology

Larger ContextLarger Context

• 1901 – 24 G.I.

• 1925 – 42 Silent

• 1943 – 60 Boomers

• 1961 – 81 Gen X

• 1982 - Millennial

Millennial ParentsMillennial Parents

• Accountability

• Protective

• Connected 24 / 7

• Cool to be Smart

• Team Skills

• Cool to Know Technology

Out of every 100 ninth graders….

65 will graduate from high school

39 will enter college

26 are still enrolled in the sophomore year

15 will graduate from college

Challenges

• Globalization

• Demographics

• Values / Beliefs

• Technology

Information TechnologyInformation Technology

• ProcessingProcessing

• CommunicationsCommunications

Nano TechnologyNano Technology

• Atom UpAtom Up

Central Units’ Memory = 8 MBCentral Units’ Memory = 8 MB

2004 iPod = 4 GB2004 iPod = 4 GB

2005 iPod = 20 GB2005 iPod = 20 GB

2006 iPod = 80 GB2006 iPod = 80 GB

1964 IBM System / 360 Mainframe1964 IBM System / 360 Mainframe

Image source: www.dell.com

Image source: http://robota.dem.uc.pt/pda_control/pda2.JPG

SPOTSPOT

• MicrosoftMicrosoft– CitizenCitizen– FossilFossil– SuuncoSuunco

SPOTSPOT

• Integrated ProjectionIntegrated Projection

• Projection KeyboardProjection Keyboard

Projection KeyboardProjection Keyboard

Projection KeyboardProjection Keyboard

Projection Keyboard and ProjectorProjection Keyboard and Projector

Bio TechnologyBio Technology

• Biological ScienceBiological Science

• Practical ApplicationPractical Application

Bio-InfoBio-Info

Cell Cell

DNADNA

HardwareHardware

SoftwareSoftware

Genetically Engineered FoodsGenetically Engineered Foods

• Tomato

World Wide WebWorld Wide Web

GoogleGoogle

• 2003 350,000 searches a day

• 2006 1,000,000,000 searches a day

Source: Thomas l. Friedman

Semantic WebSemantic Web

1980s: “internetworking protocols” link computers

(Internet)

1990s:“hypertext transfer protocol” link documents

(WWW)

2000s:“grid protocols” link databases

(Grid computing)

Semantic WebSemantic Web Analyze DocumentsAnalyze Documents

Key words and headersKey words and headers Meaning/conceptsMeaning/concepts

Complete TaskComplete Task

Information Systems Hardware Tools Capacity

Grid ComputingGrid Computing

Language TranslationLanguage Translation

Ear Buds

Translation GogglesTranslation Goggles

Evolution of the Telephone

1950s

1990s

1970s

Today

Ready for Work

Youth Employment Outcomes

Ready for CollegeAcademic Outcomes

Ready for LifeYouth Development Outcomes

21st Century Skills & Content

Information & Media LiteracyCommunication

Critical & Systems ThinkingProblem Solving

Creativity, Intellectual CuriosityInterpersonal Skills

Self-DirectionAccountability and Adaptability

Social ResponsibilityFinancial LiteracyGlobal Awareness

Civic Literacy

Cultural, Physical & Behavioral Health Knowledge & Skills

Specific Vocational Knowledge & Skills

To Deliver 21st Century Skills & Content: The Common Core

Subject Matter Knowledge

Themes

1. Some Thoughts

2. Educational Challenges

3. Four Megatrends

Class of 2017

Dreams of the children we have

Success to Significance

Four Mega TrendsFour Mega Trends

Ray McNultyRay McNultySenior Vice PresidentSenior Vice President

International Center for Leadership in Education

Hawaii January 22-23, 2007

Impacting High School Reinvention