Freight & passenger growth on the West Midlands rail network.- Implications for capacity

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Current passenger off-peak(trains per hour, sum of both directions)

New St

Moor St

Kings Norton

Stourbridge

Water Orton

Coventry

Wolverhampton

Stafford

Lichfield

Tamworth

Nuneaton

Rugby

Rugeley

Bham Int

Walsall

Cannock

Aston

Camp Hill

Current passenger in 6-hour off-peak

Plus CENTRO-aspired pass. services

New St

Moor St

Kings Norton

Tamworth

Nuneaton

Rugeley

Walsall

Aldridge

Cannock

Camp Hill

Water Orton

Scenarios – Freight demand• Forecasts from MDST study for Network Rail (Freight Market Study)

– Current, 2023/4, 2033/4, 2043/4 (Focus on 2033/4)– Increased fuel & wages: Bad for road = good for rail– Additional rail-connected warehousing nationally– 20% increase in operational days per week and intermodal train length

with equivalent improvements for road– No Avonmouth deep sea container port

• Locally, assumptions include:– South Staffs rail-connected warehousing– Cannock intermodal terminal– Rugeley partially converts to biomass– No Bescot intermodal rail freight interchange

• Key results– Significant freight growth in / through West Midlands– Particularly high growth in intermodal– Coal declines and partly replaced by biomass

Current freight paths: 6-hour off-peak

Kingsbury & Birch Coppice

Rugeley PS

Bescot

Sutton Park

Lawley St

Daw MillHams Hall

Jaguar

2033/4 freight paths: 6-hour off-peak

Cannock

Bescot

Rugeley PS

Sutton Park

Lawley St

Daw Mill

Featherstone / Four Ashes

Hams Hall

Kingsbury & Birch Coppice

Jaguar

Current passenger + freight 6 hr OP

2033/4 passenger + freight

Future congestion hotspots

Ryecroft junction

Water OrtonAston

Bordesley junction

Galton junction

Kingsbury junction

Whitacre junction

Stoke Works junc (Bromsgrove)

Soho S junc

Unconstrained growth:demand for paths vs capacity

• Forecast demand for train paths during daytime off peak 6 hours given unconstrained freight paths plus (aspired) passenger services

• Train path volumes shown are sum in all directions through junctions• Theoretical Max capacity assumes existing Timetable Planning Rules • “Junction simple-CUI” (JSCUI) calculations imply ‘stand-alone’ junctions

Location Theoretical

Max capacity Current

train paths“junction

simple CUI” 2033/4

train paths. “junction

simple CUI” Water Orton 6 x 30 = 180 108 60% 157 87% Ryecroft junc 6 x 30 = 180 38 21% 101 56% Aston 6 x 40 = 240 114 47% 119 49% Galton junc 6 x 40 = 240 122 51% 104 43% Bordesley junc 6 x 40 = 240 51 21% 102 42% Soho South junc 6 x 40 = 240 133 56% 133 55% Kingsbury junc 6 x 30 = 180 73 40% 102 57%Whitacre W junc 6 x 40 = 240 48 20% 107 45%StWkJ (Bromsgrove) 6 x 30 = 180 60 33% 58 32%

Congestion hotspots - commentary• Those currently considered very busy (JSCUI%) max. out at

60% utilization (impact of one junction on the next):– Water Orton (60%) Aston (47%) Galton J (51%) & Soho SJ (56%)– Water Orton highest JSCUI with 60%

• Currently spare capacity through– Ryecroft J (21%) & Bordesley J (21%)

• Little growth forecast at most currently-busy junctions– Aston (49%) Galton J (43%) & Soho SJ (55%)

But large increase at:• Bordesley J (42%)

– Becomes busy – compromises may allow it to be time-tabled• Ryecroft J (56%) & Kingsbury J (57%)

– Become very busy – challenging to accommodate• Water Orton (87%) - Cannot be accommodated

Findings: Water Orton corridor• Water Orton is key bottleneck in West Midlands• Strong unconstrained demand would outstrip

corridor capacity– needs to be resolved to accommodate future growth

• Needed to determine (conditional) output requirements of corridor to investigate solutions

• Water Orton capacity constraint needs to be resolved for Tamworth / Nuneaton local rail service (via Camp Hill) to be launched

Study Findings- Camp Hill South• Study has identified potential incremental scheme which

does not require S-W-L scheme• Kings Norton – Moor St. 3 services/hour + freight feasible

– Assumes Kings Norton additional turnback platform off the main line to avoid conflicts with route to New St.

• Camp Hill chord south could be built first– Could be developed with passive provision for north chord

• Need to establish business case and viability of options• But removal of freight services or signalling upgrade may

be required to reliably deliver > 3 services per hour

Concentration of freight sites

Cannock

Bescot

Rugeley PS

Sutton Park

Lawley St

Daw Mill

Featherstone / Four Ashes

Hams Hall

• in North East quadrant• Opportunity for dedicated freight

line connecting Whitacre J with Sutton Park line?– Using reserved route through Hams Hall

• (2033/4 freight paths in 6-hour off-peak)

Kingsbury & Birch Coppice

Jaguar

Water Orton – Existing Layout

Summary of problem to solve

SLOW Bordesley J / Moor St

Landor St – Jaguar etc

Nuneaton

Sutton Park line

FASTNew St

Tamworth

• HS2

SORT

• Water Orton• Coleshill• Hams Hall• Whitacre J• Kingsbury J

Daw Mill

Birch Coppice

Water Orton – partial solutions• Divert freight to Stourbridge-Walsall-Lichfield

– Easily-switchable trains reduces demand slightly: 157 to 145– But costs probably not justifiable

• Whitacre East chord– or chord at Lichfield from WCML towards Rycroft/Sutton Park?

• Restrictions on freight thru. W. Midlands?– Other freight re-routings involving longer distances & costs– Unpopular with freight operators– Could add to other capacity issues elsewhere (WCML full!)

• Improved signalling• Compromise on fast passenger timingsBut probably need new tracks for full solution such as:• Grade separation at Water Orton and/or Whitacre Junctions• Dedicated freight route west of Whitacre Junction

Proposal to Network Rail• A solution to Water Orton is required

– Start GRIP process– Establish relationship with Strategic Freight Network. Can SFN

contribute to enhancement?