From Aquino to Aquino Transitional Challenges and Presidential Leadership in Democratizing Philippines Dr. Julio C. Teehankee De La Salle University Manila,

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From Aquino to Aquino Transitional Challenges and Presidential Leadership in Democratizing Philippines Dr. Julio C. Teehankee De La Salle University Manila, Philippines Slide 2 Slide 3 Slide 4 Slide 5 Slide 6 The Puzzle? In a developing democracy like the Philippines, identifying the ineffectiveness of our presidents has become an obsession. Pundits are quick to point out what is wrong, but short on explaining what is wrought. What can Philippine presidents actually do during their term? What factors prevents or enables them to provide presidential leadership? What is the impact of the presidential transition on the rest of their term? Slide 7 The Philippine Presidency the most durable in the Asian region one of three presidential systems in East Asia (South Korea & Indonesia) fifteen presidents since the first Philippine Republic was inaugurated in 1899 Slide 8 The Philippine Presidency: American Template Personal Model Richard Neustadt presidents must persuade reputation, prestige, perception, & judgement personal style Regime Model Stephen Skowronek presidents come to power within regimes (institutional arrangement) structural pattern of regime change cycle of presidents within regimes Structured Choice Model Robert Lieberman opportunities for strategic presidential action within structurally defined & delimited situation structure & agency, regimes & choice Slide 9 While the Philippine presidency is patterned after the American template, it is rooted in Latin American practices. The Philippine Presidency: Latin American Parallelisms Slide 10 The Philippine Presidency: Pangulo Regime Pangulo Regime supremacy of the executive and puts premium on the value of pagdamay metaphor for the body politic Aguinaldo, Quezon, Laurel, Marcos legitimation for authoritarianism; partyless democracy Slide 11 The Philippine Presidency: Democratization 1.transitional teleological process towards democratic consolidation 2.changeless no real process or progress, same-same 3.cyclical - regime establishment, development, challenge, decay, and new regime Slide 12 Arguments Presidential Regimes and Presidential Time Campaign Narratives and Presidential Narratives Narrative Cycles in the Post Marcos Philippine Presidency Making Narratives Stick: The Role of Strategic Players and Coalition-building Slide 13 Presidential Regimes a president ascends to power within a particular set of institutions or regime that largely shapes the presidential style of leadership. Regime commitments of ideology and interest embodied in pre-existing institutional arrangements. Presidents find themselves facing different obstacles to leadership based on their relation to existing regimes Presidents are either builders, consolidators, articulators, or repudiators Slide 14 Presidential Time The recurrence of regime orientations creates a structured context for presidential leadership within a pattern of political time. Political Time medium through which presidents received commitments of ideology and interest and claim authority to intervene in their development. Successive presidents can face dramatically distinct political and institutional challenges. Slide 15 Presidential actions are determined by historically-articulated institutional configurations. But these configurations determine context, they do not determine action Presidents face strategic choices choices given by institutionally configured situations Presidential Leadership: Configuration & Choice Slide 16 Narratives Narratives - stories or discourses with a clear sequential order that connect events in a meaningful way. (Hinchman & Hinchman 1997) Political Narratives narratives (i.e. "populist", "rich- versus-poor" and "reformist", "good governance) used by politicians in the context of electoral democracy in the Philippines (Thompson 2010) Two Types: Campaign and Presidential Narratives Cycle of Narratives: reformist, developmentalist, and populist Slide 17 The Philippine Presidency: Within the Prism of Political Time Foundational Regimes 1st Republic (1899- 1901) American Colonial (1898-1943, 1945-46) 2 nd Republic (1943-45) Definitive Regimes 3 rd Republic (1946- 1972) 4 th Republic (1972- 1986) Prevailing Regime 5 th Republic (1986- present) Slide 18 Transitional Challenges Under the Post-Marcos Presidency The Great Repudiator - founder of EDSA regimeOrthodox Innovator - competent allyPopulist Challenger - Marcos revivalist Apostate born from EDSA, mutated into Marcos The Loyal Son heir to the EDSA legacy Slide 19 Role of Strategic Groups 1.Business protectionist vs. global 2.Church conservative vs. progressive 3.Civil Society radical vs. moderate 4.Military professional vs. adventurists 5.Politicians traditional vs. issue-oriented Slide 20 Making Narratives Stick Strong Narrative, Stable CoalitionStrong Narrative, from Weak to Strong CoalitionStrong Narrative - from Strong to Weak Coalition From Strong to Weak Narrative, Stable Coalition Strong Narrative, Weakening Coalition? Slide 21 Post-Marcos Presidency & the EDSA Regime Slide 22 Slide 23 Thank you very much!