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Future of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study on urban mobility and challenges for Brussels Ralf BARON & François-Joseph VAN AUDENHOVE Partners, Arthur D. Little Realty 2012, UPSI-BVS, Brussels, May 23 th 2012 Arthur D. Little Benelux sa/nv Avenue de Tervurenlaan 270 B - 1150 Brussels Belgium www.adl.com [email protected] [email protected]

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Page 1: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

Future of urban mobility

CityBoom: Booming cities -

Blooming cities?!

Results of global Arthur D. Little study

on urban mobility and challenges

for Brussels

Ralf BARON & François-Joseph VAN AUDENHOVE

Partners, Arthur D. Little

Realty 2012, UPSI-BVS, Brussels, May 23th 2012

Arthur D. Little Benelux sa/nv Avenue de Tervurenlaan 270 B - 1150 Brussels Belgium www.adl.com [email protected] [email protected]

Page 2: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

2

Urban mobility 2050

Urban mobility is a global societal challenge

60% 70% 80%

10% 13% 17%

x2 x3 x4

A B C

660bn 830bn 530bn

70%

17%

x3

830bn

Share of urban

population in 2050?

Ecological Footprint

in 2050?

Increase of time spend

in congestions?

Global annual invest

(Euro) in 2050?

Page 3: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

3

1 Arthur D. Little global study on urban mobility

2 Urban mobility challenges for Brussels

Page 4: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

4

The future will be urban…

… but urban mobility systems are on their way to breakdown

Source: Stockholm Environment Institute, US Census Bureau, UN Population Division, Schäfer/ Victor 2000, Siemens, Bureau of Transport Statistics,

Arthur D. Little

Planet Ecological footprint urban mobility

People Delay hours due to congestions

Profit Urban mobility investment need

17,3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

14,2%

11,4%

8,9%

6,7%

5,0%

3,7%

% of the planet’s

biocapacities used

0

30

60

90

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

106,3

91,5

78,8

67,8 58,4

50,9

32,5

Delay hours

per person p.a.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bn EUR

829

665

534

429

324

245

185

Future of Urban Mobility

Page 5: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

5

■ What are the key mobility

challenges to be faced by cities

tomorrow?

■ What are the key solutions under

development to cope with these

challenges?

■ What are the key levers for value

chain actors (city top executives

and solutions providers) to shape

the future towards networked and

multimodal urban mobility

systems?

Within this context, Arthur D. Little has conducted a global study among 66 cities in

order to define the key mobility challenges to be faced by cities tomorrow

Future of Urban Mobility

Urban Mobility Index: 11 criteria

Mobility

maturity

Mobility

Perfor-

mance

■ Share of public transport, walking and cycling in

modal split

■ Number of shared cars

■ Number of shared bikes

■ Penetration rate of smart cards

■ Vision/ strategy for future mobility

■ Average travel speed

■ Mean travel time to work

■ Number of fatalities

■ Registered vehicles

■ Transport related CO2 emission

■ Satisfaction with transport

Page 6: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

6

21%

64%

15%

Average

performance

Above

average performance

Sample average

Below

average performance

45 55 65 75 80 Urban Mobility Performance Index

The overall results indicate that the majority of cities are badly equipped to cope

with the challenges ahead

Amsterdam

Milan

Athens

Rome Lisbon Brussels

Paris Vienna

Berlin

London

Zurich

Goteborg

Cambridge Barcelona Frankfurt Madrid

Western Europe Average 71.4

Hong Kong Stockholm Global Average 64.4

Cologne

Source: Arthur D. Little Urban Mobility Index

Page 7: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

7

The root cause for poor performance is a lack of innovation

Broad range of business

models and technologies

readily available

Innovation hostility key

barrier for evolution of

urban mobility systems

Comprehensive review of 36 urban mobility business

models reveals sufficient availability of solutions to

address the pressing mobility challenges

Analysis of 39 key mobility technologies reveals a

broad range of early and emerging technologies with

significant potential to enable transformation to high

performance urban mobility systems

Current mobility systems do not adapt to changing

demands, combine single steps from a value chain to

a new system, learn from other systems

Current mobility systems do not bring together key

players to work jointly on solutions and rarely provide

for a rewarding environment for investors

Source: Arthur D. Little Urban Mobility Index

Future of Urban Mobility

Page 8: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

8

In total three strategic imperatives were identified for urban mobility depending on

cities’ level of maturity and share of public transport

Manila

Hongkong

Lahore Dubai Bangalore

Washington Brussels

Boston

Stockholm

time

matu

rity

Features:

innovative thinking

seamless

integration with

“one key” for

citizens

high convenience

sharing concepts

Establish

sustainable core:

invest in sustainable

urban mobility

infrastructure

Rethink the system:

shape political agenda

towards shift to public &

sustainability

Network the system:

integration of different

market players and

networking of citizens

Emerging Emerging cities with

partly underdeveloped

mobility systems

Individual Mature cities with high

proportion of registered

vehicles

Public Mature cities with high

share of public transport

/ walking & cycling

Networked mobility Integration of all modes

to reduce share of

individual motorized

transport

Source: Arthur D. Little

Future of Urban Mobility

Page 9: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

9

Illustration – City of Stuttgart: 4 core applications areas

Smart

Mobility

Smart Energy

Smart Business

Smart City

Services &

Tourism

Integration

0% 100% 50% 75% 25%

Ladesäulen

Dimension

Integration of players & services

Source: Arthur D. Little

Critical implementation

challenges

Achieving the critical mass of

customers/citizens: Cooperation with

public transport associations &

companies essential

Killer application needed

- Integrated mobility

- M-Commerce & loyalty

- Value adding city services

Multi project coordination

Technological, organizational (PPP)

& legal complexity

Implementation of an integrated

payment & bonus program

Multilocal implementation & trans

regional integration

Communication towards politics:

Political support for realization

needed

Page 10: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

10

Illustration – City of Stuttgart: Numerous stakeholders involved

Stakeholder landscape mobility+

Source: Arthur D. Little

Operating company/JV

Telecommunication

Municipalities

Public transport

Transport

associations

Financial services

Who is in lead?

Rational concepts for potential

partners?

Product & service portfolio of

partners?

Options for temporal sequence of

integration of partners?

Contribution of each partner?

Shared services regarding payment &

secondary processes?

Buildup and organization operating

company?

Integration of further city services?

Role of e-mobility and further means

of transport (taxi, ferry etc.)?

Further mobility &

technology providers

Further public sector Districts

Critical implementation

challenges

Page 11: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

11

Scalable business model

Source: Wiener Stadtwerke, Arthur D. Little

Illustration – City of Vienna: Starting with integrated mobility, 50% of all urban

citizens will be reached until 2015

Smart Mobility

Smart City Services

Smart Business

Smart Living

Touristic attractions

Museums, theaters, operas

Smart City Vienna Concept Big Bang Implementation

Change to

WLB

Suburban

train

Change to

tram

Change to

bus

Lunch break

City Bike

Change to

suburban

train

Change to

subway

Change to

tram

Universities, Schools

Libraries

Entertainment, sports

Shops, self-service machines

Cafés, restaurants

Company access control

Access control in housing areas

Sports facilities, event tickets

Minor repairs

Energy billing

Potential

Customers:

910.000

Citizens

≈ 50% of

Vienna‘s

Citizens

until 2015

Core Service

Value adding

Services

Page 12: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

12

1 Arthur D. Little global study on urban mobility

2 Urban mobility challenges for Brussels

Page 13: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

13

Source: Arthur D. Little; (1) Annual activity reports 2011 of STIB (includes Metro, Tramways and buses)

2010

220

260

320

340

300

280

240

200

180

0

From 170k to 330k trips p.a. (+94%in 11 years)

20

11

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

Mobility is a key challenge facing urban regions such as Brussels, particularly

given evolving mobility needs associated with increasing urban population

Local Public Transport use in Brussels (in millions trips)1

# trips (Mio)

Mobility in Brussels

Moreover, low mobility performances reduce

attractiveness for companies to settle in Brussels,

thereby influencing real estate rentability

Mobility needs are increasing:

Increasing number of trips/day

Use of local public transport in Brussels

almost doubled (+94%) over the last 11 years

Mobility needs are evolving:

Changing lifestyle toward use of more

sustainable transport and mix of transport

modes

Increase of short distance travels

Mobility challenges are ahead of us given further

increase of urban population expected in the years

to come (1.200k expected in 2015)

Page 14: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

14

Source: Arthur D. Little’s Urban Mobility Index

Above average

= 6

Above average group (> 75 points):

– Amsterdam 81,2

– London 78,5

– Stockholm 77,6

– Gothenburg 77,5

– Vienna 76,3

– Paris 76,3

– Munich 76,2

Average group (65-75 points):

– Zurich 74,6

– Berlin 74,5

– Barcelona 72,3

– Madrid 71,8

– Cambridge UK 71,3

– Istanbul 70,2

– Frankfurt 69,9

– Prague 67,8

– Brussels 67,3

– Milan 65,8

Below average group (< 65 points)

– Ankara 64,8

– Lisbon 62,0

– Moscow 60,1

– Rome 57,9

– Saint Petersburg 56,9

– Athens 53,3

= 7

= 10

Average

Below average

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

Index-Points

68 64 62 60 58 56 54 0 66

Saint Petersburg

Rome

72 74 76

Place 1

Athens

78 80 82

2

Prague

Frankfurt

Istanbul

Cambridge UK

Madrid

Barcelona

Berlin

Zurich

Munich

70

Vienna

Gothenburg

Stockholm London

Amsterdam

Moscow

Lisbon

Ankara

Milan

Brussels

Paris

Brussels – A mid performing city in comparison

with other European cities

Brussels Rank 30 of 66 worldwide

Rank 16 of 23 in Europe Excerpt European Cities

Page 15: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

15

With the introduction of its multimodal mobility card “Mobib”, Brussels can be

considered as one of the good examples for multimodal mobility cards in Europe

CHN

(Peking)

ENG

(London)

LVA

(Riga)

NZ

THA

FIN

SCO

ISR

LUX BEL

JP

ARG

(B. Aires)

NOR

(Oslo)

Source: Arthur D. Little

In Brussels since 2008

Smart city offerings

(transit, car & bike sharing,

parking, stadiums,

museums, theatres,..)

Penetration in 2011 0,62

cards/ person only 3

years after going live

Personalized cards only

(yet)

Open public transport

access system (closing

planned)

Attempt to establish Mobib

as a countrywide

mobility card since 2010

– Speed-up needed!

No automated fare

calculation as in NL and

DK, the card is a “ticket

storage” only

Business models of countrywide mobility cards

Success of countrywide implementation

Degree of maturity

Business model 3:

long-distance-travel

only

Business model 2:

monomodal countywide cards

Business model 1:

multimodal countrywide cards

DEN NL

Insights:

TWN

(Taipeh)

Page 16: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

16

Brussels has a high number of shared bikes and performs

well in car sharing

Bike sharing

Source:(1) De Standaard; (2) http://www.scotty.be/fr/sites/blue-bike/; (3) http://www.cambio.be; (4) http://www.zencar.eu/en/station.cfm; (5) /www.cambio-

carsharing.com

Car sharing

Villo! by JCDecaux1: Launched in 2009,

27.000+ subscribers end 2011, 2.500 bikes and

180 stations (target by 2013: 5.000 bikes at 360

stations)

Blue-bike by SNCB2: 1.000 bikes over 39

stations

Rental initiatives: Pro Velo, CyClo

Cambio car sharing3: Launched in 2003 in

Brussels, 6.500+ users, 244 cars and 84

stations in Brussels

Zen Car4 – Launched in 2011, Green Mobility

Solution: 100% electric cars, 16 stations

Car pooling initiative “Carpool Plaza” – Joint

usage of cars e.g. to go to work

Villo! bike sharing1 Cambio car sharing5

Example Example

180 stations 2.500 bikes 27.000+ users

6.1895.2623.476

1.197445

6.597

2271951294623 2440

5.000

10.000

Nov-11 May-11

CAGR customers 71%

Nov-10 Nov-08 May-06 May-04

customers cars

Page 17: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

17

Source: (1) Conduits (www.conduits.eu), 2010; (2) UITP Source : UITP Mobility in Cities Database (includes investments in infrastructures, vehicles and equipment)

Modal split European cities (ranked from biggest share of public transport to smallest)1

Comments

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mila

n

Go

the

nburg

M

ad

rid

A

mste

rda

m

Lis

bo

n

Fra

nkfu

rt

Lo

nd

on

Be

rlin

M

un

ich

Z

urich

V

ien

na

S

tockh

olm

B

arc

elo

na

P

aris

Rom

e

Bru

sse

ls

Ath

en

s

Ca

mb

rid

ge

Public

transport,

walking &

cycling

Private

motorized

transport

Other

Compared to other European cities, Brussels has a low share of public transport in

modal split, that can be partly explained by historical limited investments in PT

Public transport, walking & cycling accounts

for 40% of total transport in Brussels

Public transport investments in % of GDP2

1,0

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

Brussels

Athens

Berlin

Madrid

Vienna

Amsterdam

London

Rome

Stockholm

Munich

Paris

Increase of public transport trips by 94% from

2000 to 2011. Accounted for 18% in 2010

Cycling: from 1% (2000) to >4% of trips

Car remains the dominant travel mode (57%)

IRIS-II mobility plan includes several initiatives

to further foster sustainable modes of transport

1991-1995 1997-2001

% of GDP

Page 18: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

18

Source: Arthur D. Little Mobility Index; (1) Operator websites, weighted average travel speed metro, tram, bus and car 2010; (2) Average one-way commute time,

www.payscale.com, 2012; (3) Multiples sources, 2010

Average travel speed1 (km/h)

Mean travel time to work2 (min)

Transport related CO2

emissions per capita3 (kg)

16

19

34

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Berl

in

Fra

nkfu

rt

Lo

nd

on

B

russels

M

ad

rid

A

then

s

Milan

B

arc

elo

na

Ro

me

G

oth

en

bu

rg

Lis

bo

n

Vie

nn

a

Zu

rich

S

toc

kh

olm

C

am

bri

dg

e

Pari

s

Mu

nic

h

Am

ste

rdam

45

36

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

Lo

nd

on

M

ilan

P

ari

s

Bru

ssels

A

mste

rdam

R

om

e

Ath

en

s

Zu

rich

M

un

ich

F

ran

kfu

rt

Sto

ckh

olm

M

ad

rid

B

arc

elo

na

Lis

bo

n

Vie

nn

a

Berl

in

Cam

bri

dg

e

Go

then

bu

rg

4

3

2

1

0

Lis

bo

n

Fra

nkfu

rt

Go

then

bu

rg

Sto

ckh

olm

R

om

e

Mu

nic

h

Bru

ssels

Z

uri

ch

V

ien

na

Milan

Am

ste

rdam

L

on

do

n

Mad

rid

Ath

en

s

Pari

s

Cam

bri

dg

e

Berl

in

Barc

elo

na

X 1.000

… leading to low mobility performances, amongst others in terms of average travel

speed, mean travel time to work and transport related CO2 emissions

Page 19: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

19

Solving the problem of urban mobility in a context of a booming urban population

will require mobility stakeholders to jointly work on several axis allowing for the

emergence of innovative and effective mobility concepts

Future of Urban Mobility

Platform

Competition

Which stakeholders should be involved?

Who should take the lead?

How to improve transregional integration?

1. Establish a collaborative

platform to align stakeholders

and prioritize initiatives

Which key priorities for the future?

Which new products/services to offer?

Which governance to ensure realization

of agreed upon targets?

2. Define and execute a vision

for the future of Brussels urban

mobility system

How to answer to booming # of potential

clients and their evolving/new needs?

How to better align mobility (incl. acce-

ssibility/connectivity) with town planning?

3. Discover and respond to the

consumer need for seamless,

multimodal urban mobility

How to make public transport and other

sustainable travel modes more attractive?

How to encourage a rational use of car?

To which extend should balanced public-

private partnerships be stimulated?

4. Initiate fair competition

between different transport

modes and business models

Page 20: Future of urban mobility - UPSI-BVS CityBoom conference_FuM_FINAL.pdfFuture of urban mobility CityBoom: Booming cities - Blooming cities?! Results of global Arthur D. Little study

20

Arthur D. Little is the world’s first management

consulting firm and assists clients with complex

assignments in a wide range of industries.

Arthur D. Little, founded in 1886, is a global leader

in management consultancy, linking strategy,

innovation and technology with deep industry

knowledge. We offer our clients sustainable

solutions to their most complex business problems.

Arthur D. Little has a collaborative client

engagement style, exceptional people and a firm-

wide commitment to quality and integrity.

Visit us at

www.adlittle.com

50

Arthur D. Little Benelux sa/nv

Avenue de Tervurenlaan 270

B-1150 Brussels

Belgium

Telephone 32.2.761.72.00

Telefax 32.2.762.07.58

Email: [email protected]

www.adlittle.com