Generalitat de Catalunya Departament d'Agricultura, Alimentació i Acció Rural

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Generalitat de Catalunya Departament d'Agricultura, Alimentaci i Acci Rural. AVALUACI DIMPACTES EN LA CADENA ALIMENTRIA DELS INCREMENTS DE PREUS DELS CEREALS. 16 de novembre de 2007. Quadre resum dimpactes repercutits Pa i pasta alimentria. Repercussi a la cadena alimentria. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • AVALUACI DIMPACTES EN LA CADENA ALIMENTRIA DELS INCREMENTS DE PREUS DELS CEREALS16 de novembre de 2007

  • Quadre resum dimpactes repercutitsPa i pasta alimentria

  • Repercussi a la cadena alimentriaAnlisi repercussi cadena alimentriaOctubre 2006/ Octubre 2007LLET% INCREMENT

    Grfic1

    0.242

    0.247

    0.098

    0.313

    0.4512

    Full1

    Commodity Price Projections

    95/9696/9797/9898/9999/0000/0101/0202/0303/0404/0520052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

    Wheat(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)

    U.S. FOB Gulf209184143119108122126158156150161157162164168171173175176177178

    Canadian Wheat Board190158150127117132140158150148156155158160164166168170171172173

    AWB Limited Export Quote228204168149138155158185183174183178180180182183183182182181180

    European Union Market192173146133132108108102146137137137149161155149149149150151152

    Rice

    FOB U.S. Houston414450415366285290222238375327359314330308315319319321325327325

    FOB Bangkok 5% Broken352323292276222177186194215268280239241243257270280292305317326

    FOB Bangkok 100% B Grade362338302284231184192199220278293251253248263276286299312324334

    Corn

    FOB U.S. Gulf16912110993888993105116989098104109112115116116117117117

    CIF Rotterdam177155127110112110113125138123112119126131136139141141142142142

    Barley

    Canada Feed12310097797487102110978694106107110113117121124127131134

    Sorghum

    FOB U.S. Gulf158111105878494961101189893105109112115117119119121122123

    Soybeans

    Illinois Processor272287244184180175176217302220210194204211212214216216216215214

    CIF Rotterdam304307259225208200203267323277247238247254255256259259258257255

    Soybean Meal

    FOB Decatur 48%260299204153185191185200282202191185190191189189190188186183180

    CIF Rotterdam256278197150180188174197273231197201207208206206206205203200196

    Soybean Oil

    FOB Decatur545496569439344312363486661507476468498520532542554564573583595

    FOB Rotterdam575536633483356336412534633545555524558582594606619629639650663

    Rapeseed

    CIF Hamburg298284296227190202220285317262265266273275273272272270268266264

    Cash Vancouver317318283253194188228296297252260256263264262262261259258256254

    Rapeseed Meal

    FOB Hamburg180175139105124141129139178131132132138135135135136136136135134

    Rapeseed Oil

    FOB Hamburg566539637482359372451588670660700679704722726737745747754762767

    Sunflower

    CIF Lower Rhine312266309257214219287286321313282290303306306306306306303299296

    Sunflower Meal

    CIF Rotterdam15113810376102118110106149120113118123122121121120119116113110

    Sunflower Oil

    FOB NW Europe617545730560413428587592663703637638657660663667672676679682686

    Palm Oil

    CIF Rotterdam545558640514338272359428489420434465483488489493499503505507507

    Palm Kernel Meal

    CIF Rotterdam137101707267596972105838089969693918987858379

    Palm Kernel Oil

    CIF Rotterdam729680653708533313379439619638600629647647648651656662666670671

    Commodity Price Projections (continued)

    199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

    Peanut, U.S. Runners 40/50(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)

    CIF Rotterdam820888700963976915850881887892896901906909911914915

    Peanut Meal

    48/50%, Southeast Mills FOB201235134104122134122140197127118126130130130130130131130129128

    Peanut Oil

    CIF Rotterdam9289599648017446856591,1391,1781,1029509961,0121,0231,0281,0371,0491,0581,0681,0791,090

    Sugar

    FOB Caribbean (raw)273257238155166216167177173231269307291297300301305310315320325

    New York Spot (raw)496485487487406465455480453462483476477477473456454445443439433

    Cotton

    Cotlook A Index1,8871,7341,5901,3001,1651,2629231,2301,5261,1801,2881,3491,4101,4131,4111,4131,4361,4711,5081,5301,555

    U.S. Farm1,6621,5281,4371,3279921,0986579811,3629171,0611,0651,1271,1351,1321,1341,1511,1831,2211,2451,270

    Beef

    Nebraska Direct Fed-Steer1,4611,4341,4621,3551,4451,5361,6031,4781,8671,8681,9241,8501,8011,7491,6861,6361,5951,5641,5731,6021,635

    U.S. Retail6,2696,1786,1636,1096,3446,7557,4467,3098,2598,9629,0198,9078,8948,8918,8508,8358,8158,7928,8859,0839,326

    Steer Price, Alberta1,3321,2741,3381,2461,3311,4141,4681,3891,3261,3321,5021,6901,6391,5901,5271,4771,4361,4041,4131,4421,474

    Australian Export (CIF U.S.)1,9071,7851,8561,7261,8331,9352,1282,1031,9782,4372,4472,4142,3862,3602,3302,3062,2882,2732,2772,2912,305

    Japanese Farm

    Dairy beef9,2378,5858,1666,5156,9768,4956,5754,3336,1088,2788,6048,74410,29511,24612,01812,76113,40813,94914,45914,93615,375

    Wagyu beef19,13416,33415,99214,87116,65217,23714,39212,71216,84218,82019,73418,95021,10722,35823,27324,13124,83225,38525,95726,48826,954

    Pork

    Barrows and Gilts National Base

    51-52% Lean Equivalent9841,2461,1977657509851,0107708701,1581,1039638789071,0041,0861,0499921,0281,0621,092

    U.S. Retail4,5445,1525,4015,3505,3235,6925,9395,8595,8606,1546,2326,1676,1376,2716,4636,6246,6166,6106,7206,9327,146

    Ontario Hogs Index1,1011,3861,3518268081,0911,1198839621,2361,2211,0148949381,0731,1851,1331,0551,1031,1491,189

    Japanese Wholesale4,8914,5854,0503,5423,8844,2783,9683,9143,6554,4644,4314,4864,5304,8405,2045,4675,4175,3515,5405,6705,776

    Chicken

    U.S. 12-City Wholesale1,2421,3501,2961,3891,2801,2381,3031,2241,3661,6341,5611,4441,3781,3631,3501,3501,3541,3581,3621,3671,371

    U.S. Retail3,1773,3183,3213,3893,4043,4253,4773,5683,5563,8093,8383,8053,7873,7843,7763,7853,8133,8473,8863,9293,973

    EU Producer1,5961,7471,5511,5731,4221,3381,3601,3001,5591,7151,9251,7481,9102,0171,9381,8961,9101,9471,9802,0162,051

    Japanese Wholesale2,9132,8742,4982,0542,1601,8632,0851,8981,8292,0662,0832,0712,2422,3792,4832,5922,6932,7822,8732,9633,047

    Turkey

    U.S. Wholesale1,4641,4661,4461,3711,5211,5541,4621,4211,3691,5371,6191,5521,4591,4581,4581,4651,4721,4751,4781,4811,484

    U.S. Retail2,2572,3002,3162,1952,1902,2732,4192,3212,3852,4042,3642,4252,3932,4102,4132,4242,4372,4482,4612,4752,489

    Commodity Price Projections (continued)

    199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

    Milk(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)

    U.S. All Milk282328294342316271330267277354334295292297301301301302302303305

    Canadian Fluid Milk429390405407409414406416480521559591599595594597602607611616622

    Australian Average Milk212230212176171155156158173210238217222229230230233236237239240

    Cheese

    FOB Northern Europe2,2492,4262,4252,2251,9131,8542,1721,7401,8792,6533,0582,6892,7492,8422,8512,8602,9052,9482,9763,0013,017

    U.S. Wholesale2,9273,2332,8843,4583,1012,5343,1722,6062,9043,6363,2912,9042,8822,9292,9722,9802,9882,9922,9953,0083,027

    Canadian Wholesale4,6234,8864,9514,8875,0455,1755,1465,2576,1136,8487,9128,4668,6238,6358,6978,8339,0029,1709,3279,4939,680

    Australian Export2,7172,9672,8412,4882,4642,3232,3482,3312,3752,6632,9442,6062,6612,7462,7542,7622,8042,8432,8692,8922,906

    Butter

    FOB Northern Europe2,1551,7501,7241,8531,4361,3251,3351,1471,4061,7972,0041,7551,8031,8531,8491,8601,8911,9201,9461,9721,992

    U.S. Wholesale1,8052,3762,5563,8992,7092,5943,6662,4382,5244,0053,4153,0452,8532,8972,9432,9072,9072,9052,9202,9582,983

    Australian Export1,8792,0381,7551,6751,6681,4661,4151,3631,5061,7872,2051,9141,9702,0292,0242,0362,0732,1072,1372,1682,191

    Nonfat Dry Milk

    FOB Northern Europe2,1071,9421,7401,4531,3011,8822,0131,3261,7211,9762,2001,9832,0402,1012,1312,1342,1462,1542,1582,1602,163

    U.S. Wholesale2,3942,6932,4252,3582,2812,2402,2232,0521,8601,9392,1861,9652,0212,0792,1072,1092,1182,1232,1242,1232,123

    Australian Export1,9042,0771,8401,4921,4341,6281,7451,5111,5352,0012,3242,1182,1722,2302,2582,2622,2722,2812,2842,2862,289

    Whole Milk Powder

    FOB Northern Europe2,1721,9581,8291,7641,5011,8491,9731,3411,7642,1262,2902,0692,1322,2332,2452,2432,2822,3032,3182,3392,344

    Australian Export2,0802,7082,4721,8111,7781,7661,7891,6671,7592,1152,3652,1712,2262,3152,3262,3252,3592,3772,3902,4092,414

    8.4%

    Full1

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    U.S. FOB Gulf

    Canadian Wheat Board

    AWB Limited Export Quote

    European Union Market

    U.S. Dlars per Tona

    Projeccions de preu del blat 2006-2015

    Full2

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    FOB U.S. Houston

    FOB Bangkok 5% Broken

    FOB Bangkok 100% B Grade

    U.S. Dlars per Tona

    Projeccions de preu de l'arrs 2006-2015

    Full3

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    FOB U.S. Gulf

    CIF Rotterdam

    U.S. Dlars per Tona

    Projeccions de preu del blat de moro 2006-2015

    Full4

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Canada Feed

    U.S. Dlars per Tona

    Projeccions de preu de l'ordi 2006-2015

    Full5

    00

    00

    00

    00

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    00

    00

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    FOB Decatur 48%

    CIF Rotterdam

    U.S. Dlars per Tona

    Projeccions de preu de la farina de soja 2006-2015

    Full6

    PROJECCIONS DE PREUS 2006-2010 i 2006-2015

    20062010% Var. 2006/2010200615/16% Var. 2006/2015% Var. 2006/2010200615/16% Var. 2006/2015

    (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)

    BlatPorc

    U.S. FOB Gulf1571718.5%15717813.2%Barrows and Gilts National Base

    Canadian Wheat Board1551667.1%15517311.4%51-52% Lean Equivalent9631,08612.7%9631,