GIS Assistance in Choosing Locations for New Sports Teams

Goals

To examine the layout of current stadiums for the big four sports:

MLB: Major League BaseballNBA: National Basketball AssociationNFL: National Football LeagueNHL: National Hockey League

To use GIS to choose locations for new teams in case of league expansion

Data Collection

Google Earth used to locate latitude/longitude pairs for stadiumsESRI provided shapefiles of Census tracts (by state) and demographic data for each tractESRI data had to be joined and appended, and tract identifier numbers had to be reformattedCensus Bureau Summary File 3 data for per capita income for all Census tracts

“Geo within geo” tool was helpful but downloading data was still very repetitive and time consuming

Game Plan

Each Census tract was joined to a sports team based on the shortest distance from an edge of the tract to the stadiumSome sports teams share stadiums; in that case, the teams were combined into one entity

e.g., Clippers and Lakers, Jets and Giants

Calculations

To properly assess the value of a given sports franchise, several data points were calculated:

Total populationTotal annual wealth of populationPer capita income of populationAverage distance of population from stadiumAverage distance of wealth from stadiumMaximum distance in population group from stadiumPercentage of fans in the same state as the stadium

Projection

Equidistant projection used for accuracy of distance calculations:

Map Projection Name: Equidistant ConicStandard Parallel: 33.000000Standard Parallel: 45.000000Longitude of Central Meridian: -96.000000Latitude of Projection Origin: 39.000000

Scope of Data

Calculations made only with contiguous U.S. dataAlaska and Hawaii radically throw off distance calculations

Maximum Distance from Census Tract to Closest Stadium

AT&T Park(San Francisco Giants)

Safeco Field (Seattle Mariners)

All 50 States 5,060 km 5,223 km

Lower 48 States 535 km 998 km

Conic Projection of MLB Stadiums

Fan Base Maps: MLB

Fan Base Maps: NBA

Fan Base Maps: NFL

Fan Base Maps: NHL

Calculation Caveats

Assumption that people in any given Census tract will root for the team located closest to that tract is not always true

e.g., during Michael Jordan’s reign, Chicago Bulls fans were found all over the U.S., not just near ChicagoSometimes driving distances are much greater than “as the crow flies” distance calculations

Cities with multiple teamsMissing information about Canada

MLB Map Detail

Calculations

Data available:2000 Census population for tracts2000 Census per capita income for tracts

Total money = population * per capita incomePopulation distance = sum (population * distance) / total populationTotal money distance = sum (total money * distance) / total money

Sample Calculations Table: MLB

MLB TeamTotal

Population Total Money

Average Per Capita Income

Farthest Distance

From Stadium (km)

Average Person

Distance From

Stadium

Average Total Money

Distance From

StadiumIn State

Population

Percentage Fans In Same

State As Stadium

Arizona Diamondbacks 6,755,350 $127,204,754,367 $18,830 721 192 157 5,011,691 74%Atlanta Braves 25,995,537 $508,376,181,931 $19,556 590 256 245 8,099,355 31%

Baltimore Orioles 4,723,769 $106,742,991,466 $22,597 222 56 53 2,880,979 61%Boston Red Sox 11,939,213 $286,672,227,674 $24,011 586 99 87 6,330,312 53%Chicago Cubs 5,565,214 $148,939,607,899 $26,763 326 56 49 4,795,508 86%

Chicago White Sox 7,584,856 $154,301,947,438 $20,343 322 84 84 5,108,153 67%Cincinnati Reds 13,232,301 $264,392,805,854 $19,981 412 149 141 4,915,002 37%

Cleveland Indians 5,089,649 $106,378,854,735 $20,901 199 62 59 4,759,106 94%Colorado Rockies 9,126,678 $192,273,183,405 $21,067 988 320 282 4,336,259 48%

Detroit Tigers 8,784,562 $198,001,439,700 $22,540 472 80 75 7,546,365 86%Florida Marlins 5,944,648 $136,169,165,365 $22,906 245 51 56 5,944,648 100%Houston Astros 15,564,655 $286,097,494,296 $18,381 584 251 227 10,930,338 70%

Kansas City Royals 9,148,079 $179,738,754,094 $19,648 475 215 208 2,566,161 28%Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 8,684,600 $187,861,105,242 $21,632 372 87 86 7,344,268 85%

Los Angeles Dodgers 10,701,076 $219,881,514,110 $20,548 641 53 50 10,658,263 100%Milwaukee Brewers 6,758,779 $143,866,667,686 $21,286 439 131 126 4,462,456 66%

Minnesota Twins 8,168,291 $173,125,169,058 $21,195 985 178 153 4,921,714 60%New York Mets 9,996,797 $232,797,704,587 $23,287 154 32 36 8,067,569 81%

New York Yankees 13,579,732 $375,646,976,880 $27,662 320 67 58 6,565,009 48%Oakland Athletics 10,444,991 $255,974,248,503 $24,507 792 111 95 9,850,855 94%

Philadelphia Phillies 9,246,628 $213,820,163,973 $23,124 258 53 51 5,960,763 64%Pittsburgh Pirates 5,674,791 $103,962,790,397 $18,320 381 86 78 3,750,947 66%San Diego Padres 3,225,726 $71,493,831,507 $22,164 239 44 39 3,101,090 96%

San Francisco Giants 3,365,374 $90,607,521,321 $26,923 535 123 88 3,042,654 90%Seattle Mariners 10,489,074 $228,284,460,709 $21,764 998 236 210 5,917,958 56%

St. Louis Cardinals 9,515,368 $181,135,204,659 $19,036 580 208 196 3,029,050 32%Tampa Bay Devil Rays 9,405,365 $196,723,047,140 $20,916 407 147 143 9,293,930 99%

Texas Rangers 13,122,372 $256,435,467,044 $19,542 724 198 175 9,231,606 70%Toronto Blue Jays 3,916,258 $77,182,936,645 $19,708 400 171 169

Washington Nationals 14,595,239 $346,162,648,029 $23,718 560 210 182 572,059 4%

Calculation: Furthest Tract

Calculation of how far the fan base spreads

Shortest Extent Longest Extent

MLB154 km

New York Mets998 km

Seattle Mariners

NBA160 km

New York Knicks983 km

Minnesota Timberwolves

NFL188 km

Cleveland Browns998 km

Seattle Seahawks

NHL89 km

New York Rangers858 km

Colorado Avalanche

MLB Extents

MLB Extents (Detail)(Note gap in Montana Census tracts)

Calculation: In-State Fan Base (1)

Percentage of fans who are part of a fan base that live in the same state as the stadiumSeveral problems with this calculation, e.g.:

Some New York teams play in New JerseyCount Washington, DC as a state?Missing Canada data

Calculation: In-State Fan Base (2)

Not counting Washington, DC teams:

Smallest Percent Largest Percent

MLB28%

Kansas City Royals

100%Florida Marlins

Los Angeles Dodgers

NBA22%

Memphis Grizzlies

100%Golden State Warriors

Miami Heat

NFL26%

New York Giants & Jets

100%Miami Dolphins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NHL41%

Nashville Predators

100%Florida Panthers

Los Angeles Kings

MLB In-State Fan Base

MLB In-StateFan Base (Detail)

Calculation: Total Population

Total population indicates the size of a team’s potential fan baseExcluding Canadian teams and halving population totals for teams that share a stadium:

Smallest Population Largest Population

MLB3,225,726

San Diego Padres25,995,537

Atlanta Braves

NBA3,945,409Utah Jazz

14,466,653Charlotte Bobcats

NFL2,445,948

San Francisco 49ers20,432,544

San Diego Chargers

NHL4,241,939

Buffalo Sabres29,111,328Dallas Stars

NBA Total Population

Calculation: Total Money

Total money indicates the wealth of a team’s potential fan baseRanks match those of total population except for the NFL

San Francisco 49ers have the highest per capita income in the league ($32,610), so despite having the smallest fan base, they are ranked third from the bottom in total wealth (in front of the Green Bay Packers and the Jacksonville Jaguars)

NBA Total Money

Calculation: Populationand Total Money Distances

The difference between the average distance of a fan to the stadium and the average distance of wealth to the stadium indicates how wealth is distributed around the stadium’s host city

Per Capita Income by Census Tract

Denver Broncos (NFL)Population distance: 326 km

Wealth distance: 287 km

Synthesizing the Data (1)

A useful map combines all sports teams of the four major leagues and shows how close Census tracts are to any teamGives a geographic sense of what areas of the country are lacking representative teams

Census Tract Distance to Major Sports Teams(Darker Green Indicates Further Distance)

Least Representative Census TractTract 380539624 (population 1,589) is the furthest from any sports team,

Watford City, ND is 828 km from the Minnesota Timberwolves

Synthesizing the Data (2)

One way to locate where a new stadium should be located (for the NFL):

Plot all major cities and towns and then remove those that are within 100 km of a current stadium100 km is an arbitrary number but stadiums should not be placed too close together (though the Washington Redskins and Baltimore Ravens play 46 km from each other)

U.S. Cities with 100 km NFL Stadium Radii Removed

Synthesizing the Data (3)

Create 40 km buffers around each city pointCalculate the total population within the buffer40 km is an arbitrary number but could serve as the size of a city large enough to host a sports team

U.S. City 40 km Buffers

Synthesizing the Data (4)

By plotting only buffers that meet a given criterion, possible locations for a sports team can be determined

Metropolitan Areas with a Population Greater than 500,000 without an NFL Team

Metropolitan Areas with a Population Greater than 1,000,000 without an NFL Team

Los Angeles

Portland

Milwaukee

San Antonio

Columbus

Virginia Beach

Final Analysis for Metropolitan Areas with a Population Over 1,000,000

A table with statistics shows that Los Angeles is easily the best choice for a new football team

Further analysis could plot how fan base distributions change with the addition of a team to Los Angeles or other cities

Prospective City Current Fan Base Current Fan Base SizeCurrent Fan Base

Wealth Average Fan DistancePortland Seattle 10,489,074 $228,284,460,709 236

Los Angeles San Diego 20,432,544 $436,316,875,283 150San Antonio Houston 11,442,873 $217,682,640,419 178Milwaukee Chicago 15,765,013 $361,374,421,990 89Columbus Cincinnati 8,637,158 $176,420,638,753 117

Virginia Beach Washington 9,362,763 $241,669,842,381 108