Global Consumer Markets Service - Economics & … Market Sizing Demographic Analysis Performance Benchmarking Retail Sales & Consumer Spending Forecasting

Global Consumer Markets Service

Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc. 2

Global Insight

• Premier intelligence: World-wide country & economic analysis, forecasts & consulting

• Most comprehensive coverage of countries, regions, and industries from any single source

• Common analytical framework and a consistent set of assumptions across industries

GLOBAL INSIGHT has the BEST TRACK RECORD among

COMMERCIAL FORECASTERS


Global Insight

Broad range of capabilities include:

Consumer Market SizingDemographic AnalysisPerformance Benchmarking Retail Sales & Consumer Spending ForecastingStrategic and Tactical Planning Tools


Global Consumer Markets ServiceGLOBAL CONSUMER MARKETS SERVICE brings together

Key Forecasts, Datasets, and Market-sizing Tools to help you formulate better strategic and tactical plans for your organization,

based on Reliable, Comprehensive Data and Analysis.


A Global Outlook on Consumer Spending & Key Drivers

Cross-country, Comparable Data

95 Emerging and Developed Countries +90% of Global Consumer Purchases Forecast

22 Consumer Product CategoriesDetailed Household Income Distribution ForecastsIn-depth Population AnalysisGender and Age BreakdownsTotal Population Urbanization Rates

History and Forecasts from 1990 to 2020

Consistent Analysis –Complete Coverage


Size & Forecast Your Target Market

Assess Overall Market AttractivenessSize Country MarketsAnticipate Growth by Customer SegmentIdentify Market Risk and Exposure

Uncover Market Opportunity and Evaluate Risk

Conduct Product Penetration AnalysisCombine Your Proprietary Information with

data from Global Consumer Markets to evaluate market penetration and opportunity


Global Consumer Markets: Database Dimensions

Case Studies

DATABASE DIMENSIONS

Global Consumer Markets


Country Coverage

UzbekistanKazakhstanSwedenGreeceSri LankaIndiaUkraineBelarusSpainGermanySingaporeHong KongTurkmenistanAzerbaijanPortugalFrancePhilippinesChina

NorwayFinlandPakistanBangladesh

MexicoCanadaNorth AmericaRussia

Commonwealth of Independent States

El SalvadorEcuadorCubaCosta RicaColombiaChileBrazilBoliviaBelizeArgentinaLatin America

United States

VenezuelaUruguayPuerto RicoPerúParaguayPanamáNicaraguaHondurasGuatemala

EuropeTunisiaJordanTurkeyLatviaTanzaniaIsraelSloveniaHungarySouth AfricaIranSlovak RepublicEstoniaSaudi ArabiaGhanaRomaniaCzech RepublicNigeriaEgyptPolandCroatiaMoroccoCote d'IvoireLithuaniaBulgariaKuwaitAlgeria

Central EuropeAfrica Middle East

NetherlandsDenmarkNew ZealandAustraliaMaltaCyprusAsia-PacificLuxembourgBelgiumUnited Arab EmiratesItalyAustriaUgandaKenya

IrelandIceland

United KingdomSwitzerland

VietnamThailandTaiwan

KoreaJapanIndonesia

95 COUNTRIES

Malaysia


Demographics & Income Distribution by Country

55 to 59

50 to 54

45 to 49

40 to 44

75 & UP

70 to 74

65 to 69

60 to 64

35 to 39

30 to 34

25 to 29

20 to 24

TOTAL URBAN POPULATION

15 to 19

10 to 14

5 to 9

0 to 4

TOTAL ▬ MALE/FEMALE (Age Segments)

POPULATION

US$ ▬ 2000 US$ ▬ PPP$ ▬ 2000 PPP$

$100-150K $150K & UP

$20-30K $30-40K $40-50K$50-60K

$60-70K $70-80K $80-90K

$90-100K

HOUSEHOLDS ▬ AVERAGE INCOME

$0-5K $5-10K

$10-15K $15-20K

INCOME DISTRIBUTION

Unemployment Rate

Female Labor Force

Male Labor Force

Total Employment

LABOR FORCE

Short Term RatePrime Rate

PPP Conversion Factor (Real/2000)

Long Term Interest RateExchange Rate

FINANCIAL


TobaccoEducation Food Communication Services

Household EquipmentFinancial & Other ServicesOther Household ServicesHousehold OperationsSemi-durables

Transportation EquipmentEntertainment Household EnergyAlcoholic BeveragesMedical Non-durables

Transportation ServicesPersonal CareRestaurants & HotelsNonalcoholic Beverages Clothing & Shoes DurablesSPENDING by CATEGORY (Billions of US$, 2000$ and Price Deflators)

Consumer Spending by Country

Index of Human Capital Illiteracy RateHealth Expenditures Education Expenditures

EDUCATION & HEALTHEnrollment Rates

PrimarySecondaryTertiaryProfits

Net National Income Net Disposable Income National Wealth

Gross Domestic Product Employee Compensation Consumption

BUYING POWER INDICATORS

National Income


Easy Online Data Access though DataInsight Web

Find the information you need by Geography and Concept

Export data series into Microsoft ™ Excel

Save frequently used series in Workbooks

Create custom data Aggregations

Visualize data series before exporting

Copyright © 2006 Global Insight 11


Global Consumer Markets: Applications

CASE STUDIES

Database Dimensions

Global Consumer Markets


How do you look at the market?


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

History Forecast

Inde

x of

Glo

bal P

opul

atio

n(1

995=

1)

World, Total Population

Population 0 to 14

Population 15 to 64

Population 65+

Market Planning - Understanding Your Potential

Compound Annual Growth Rate

3.0%

1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

1995-‘202005-’101995-’05

2.5%

1.6%

-0.2%

1.2%

65 & Up

15 to 64

0 to 14

World

2.0%

1.3%

-0.2%

1.0% + 3% AnnualGrowth

…but the world numbers only tell half of the story, as a global firm - Senior Corp

wanted to know which markets were expected to expand most.

A firm specializing in products for Seniors forecast 3% annual sales growth, based on global population forecasts.


United Kingdom

JapanUnited States

India

China

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%

Senior Corp Market Penetration (%)

65+

Abs

olut

e Po

pula

tion

Incr

ease

(Milli

ons)

Market Strategy – Potential PLUS Penetration

A closer inspection of the firm’s market presence revealed that its most highly penetrated markets were not in countries where the absolute 65+ population increase will be the greatest.

Senior Corp’s customer market base (current country portfolio)

*Bubble size represents total 65+ population


United Kingdom

JapanUnited States

India

China

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%

Senior Corp Market Penetration (%)65

+ A

bsol

ute

Popu

latio

n In

crea

se (M

illion

s)

Strategy Dynamics – Re-focus Your Targets

By pursuing an aggressive market expansion strategy in India and Japan,Senior Corp’s market proxy benchmark increased, in absolute terms.

With the right data, Senior Corp can reposition itself to take advantage of true market potential…

…but what about other factors that drive consumer spending?

Senior Corpmarket base, anticipating

India & Japan expansions


4.9

4.9

5.0

7.8

6.1

13.9

3.9

16.3

9.8

- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

U.S.

Germany

Canada

Japan

UK

Russia

Brazil

China

India

10 Year Compound Annual Growth Rates (%)

Health Spending per Capita

Health Care Expenditures: Specific Market Spending

Per capita, the U.S. spends almost double the amount on health compared to its peers

Senior Corp’s product lines are health care related. Now that the firm knows where the

target demographic is expanding –it can evaluate the combined effects of

health expenditure and income growth.

Of the two target markets for expansion –Japan and India – Japan is on par with its traditional peer group, while India is more like the developing world.

USA

Japan

Canada

UK

ChinaIndia

Brazil

Russia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Per Capita Health Expenditures (Thousands of USD)

Ave

rage

Rea

l PP

P In

com

e (T

hous

ands

of P

PP

US

D)


0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

# of

Hou

seho

lds

(mill

ions

) $70 to 80K$60 to 70K$50 to 60K$40 to 50K$30 to 40K$20 to 30K

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

# of

Hou

seho

lds

(mill

ions

) $70 to 80K$60 to 70K$50 to 60K$40 to 50K$30 to 40K$20 to 30K

Households – A Different Perspective on Income

Growth of India’s Middle Class (Real US PPP$)

Forecast Period

Another measure of market demographics – Households by Income Bracket –demonstrates the eruption of India’s middle class over the forecast period, while Japan’s middle class compresses, as households enter higher income brackets.

Japan’s Middle Class (Real US PPP$)

Forecast Period

Senior Corp’s target market is historically biased towards middle class consumers.


An Economics and Business Perspective


The Best in the Business


Thank You.Antonia Prlic

PrincipalAdvisory Services [email protected]

WWW.GLOBALINSIGHT.COM/CONSUMER

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Documents

Global Consumer Markets Service - Economics & … Market Sizing Demographic Analysis Performance Benchmarking Retail Sales & Consumer Spending Forecasting