Global Greenhouse Gas EmissionsPreeti Dasari, Aneesha Wagh and Julia YunMTH 291-01

Introduction

CO2 Emissions:“those stemming from the burning of fossil fuels and the

manufacture of cement. They include carbon dioxide produced during consumption of solid, liquid, and gas fuels and gas flaring.”

- World Bank

Purpose of Study:- climate change and environmental issues- effect over the years

Pitch SOS CO2 emissions. (n.d.). Retrieved April 29, 2015, from http://www.cartoonmovement.com/cartoon/10261

Goals

1. Determining factors that affect CO2 gas emissions2. Comparing country groups and time periods

a. High Income (gdp per capita > 12616)b. Middle Income (12616 < gdp per capita < 1035)

c. Low Income (gdp per capita < 1035)

3. Cross-validation of year 2000 data with year 2010 model

Data Source: World Bank Climate Change Database

VariablesResponse Variable- CO2 Gas Emissions (kt)

Explanatory Variables- GDP per capita (US$)

- Energy Use (kt of oil equivalent)

- Access to Electricity (ATE) (% of total population)

- Electricity Production (kWh)

- Agricultural Land (% of land area)

- Forest Land (% of land area)

- Population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million (% of total population)

- Time: year 2010 and year 2000

Data / Missing Data

● 429 observations● approximately 42% of data missing ● regression model used to impute data for all variables

Transformations

Final Model (year 2010)

log(CO2emission) = βo + β1*log(energy.use) + β2*log(electprod) + β3*(ATE^2) + β4*forest.land + β5*agri.land + ε

Diagnostic Plots

ANOVA Model (year 2010)

Total of 215 countries- 67 high income countries- 111 middle income countries- 37 low income countries

Year 2010:

ANOVA Model (year 2010)

Density Plot

Cross-Validation of Year 2000 data

2000 vs 2010

Conclusions- factors that significantly affect

CO2emissions: ATE, agri/ forest land, energy use & elect production

- Countries produce different amounts of C02 and this trend has changed within income groups over the years

- 2010 data cannot be used to predict previous/ future CO2 emission levels as shown -- because of constantly evolving global trends.

Truthdig - Tag - Co2 Emission. (n.d.). Retrieved April 30, 2015, from http://www.truthdig.com/tag/co2_emission