Global Population Change

What we will cover before Christmas

Population Indicators – birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate, fertility rate and life expectancy

Population change – the Demographic Transition Model

UK – demographic change, population structure and ageing populations

% population growth rate

Births and immigration

Deaths and emigration

Population Change

zero population growth (ZPG) occurs when the number of people in a given area neither grows nor declines

Birth rate – the number of live births per 1000 per year

Death rate – the number of deaths per 1000 per year

Birth and Death Rates

Nb Europe’s birth rate is less than the death rate

Changes in population - fertility

Fertility rate – the average number of children born to each woman in a population during her lifetime. It is a measure of the ability of a population to replace itself. Rate needs to be 2.1 to replace itself (some babies die during infancy)

It can also be defined as the number of live births per 1000 women (aged 15-49) in one year

What factors affect fertility?

• Governmental policies (whether the government is pro-natalist or anti-natalist)

• Religious Beliefs• Poverty/Economic prosperity• Tradition/Social beliefs• Average age for marriage• Existing age structures• Urbanisation• Literacy (with special emphasis on female literacy)• Infant mortality rate• Conflict (war, security, safety)

Map showing fertility rates across the world in 2009

Changes in population - mortalityMortality rate – crude death rate is the most common measure of mortality although infant mortality and life expectancy are two other common measure used

Life expectancy – this is the numbers of years that a person is expected to live

Infant mortality – this is the number of deaths of children under the age of one year, expressed per thousand per year

Map showing crude death rates across the world in 2009

What factors affect mortality?

• Infant mortality – areas with high rates of infant mortality have high rates of overall mortality

• Infant mortality is falling across the world but there are still wide variations. Why?- Malnutrition and under-nutrition- Limited access to clean drinking water- Poor sanitation and hygiene- Limited access to medical provision e.g. vaccination

programmes

Map showing infant mortality rates across the world in 2009

What factors affect mortality?

• Medicine• Economic development• Disease• AIDS• Accidents• War• Lifestyle choices

Mortality Rate1) 12.6% Ischaemic heart disease 2) 9.7% Cerebrovascular disease 3) 6.8% Lower respiratory infections 4) 4.9% HIV/AIDS 5) 4.8% Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 6) 3.2% Diarrhoeal diseases 7) 2.7% Tuberculosis 8) 2.2% Malaria 9) 2.2% Trachea/bronchus/lung cancers 10) 2.1% Road traffic accidents

This list shows the 10 leading causes of death in 2009 (WHO)

Developing countries Developed countries

HIV-AIDS Ischaemic heart disease

Lower respiratory infections Cerebrovascular disease

Ischaemic heart disease Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Diarrhea Lower respiratory infections

Cerebrovascular disease Lung cancer

Childhood diseases Car accident

Malaria Stomach cancer

Tuberculosis Hypertensive heart disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Tuberculosis

Measles Suicide

Leading causes of death in developed and developing countries

Demographicvariable

Country A Country B Country C Country D

Crude birth rate/000 15 17 28 12Crude death rate/000 6 6 8 11

Natural increase % 0.9 1 2 0.1Infant mortality rate/000 31 15.6 66 5.7Total fertility rate 1.8 2 3.3 1.7

% Population aged under 15 23 26 40 19% Population aged over 65 7 6 3 16

Life expectancy at birth Male & Female

69 71 67 74 59 59 75 80

Question - June 2008

(i) Arrange the countries in order of development (4)(ii) Suggest reasons for your chosen order (7)

The Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1 – High stationary stage

Death rates and birth rates are high (often between 30 to 40 per 1000) although they fluctuate due to wars, famine, drought and disease. Population remains fairly stable and natural increase is low. There are no countries in Stage 1 although some remote tribes in the tropical rainforest may have these characteristics

Stage 2 – Early expanding phase

Birth rates remain high but death rates start to fall resulting in high rates of natural increase and population growth. This is due to due to improvements in food supply, sanitation, education and better medical provision.

Stage 3 – Late Expanding Phase The pace of population increase begins to slow down as the death rate continues to fall and the birth rate also begins to decrease. This is due to:

• Lower infant mortality• Urbanisation• Family planning• Education (especially women)• Materialism• Increase in status of women

The rate of natural increase is low

Stage 4 – Low stationary phase

Low birth rates and death rates giving low natural increase. There are small fluctuations and occasional ‘baby booms’ often linked to economic prosperity.

Stage 5 – Zero population growth and population decline

This fifth stage has only been recognised in recent years and only in a few countries (Italy, Sweden and Japan). This is due to:

• Greater independence of woman (especially financially)• Less social pressure for the ‘traditional family’ with

children• Death rates may remain consistently low or increase

slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an ageing population in developed countries.

This creates an economic pressure on the smaller working population

Usefulness?Strengths Weaknesses

Allows a starting point for studying population change over time

Based on industrialising countries (and model assumes that stage 2 follows industrialisation)

Idea can be applied to all countries Changes in birth rate (stage 3) often at a different rate to that predicted by model

Shows changes through time No account of rate of change

Allows for comparisons between countries No account of size of base population

Can link ideas about population change to changing economic and social conditions

No account of impact of migration

Describes what has happened in the UK No account of role of governments

Easy to understand HIV/AIDS has meant that some countries appear to have slipped back

UK – demographic change, population structure and ageing populations

Population Pyramids

Dependency ratio = (population 0-19) + (population >60) population 20-59

Population change in the UK1700’sHigh and fluctuating birth & death1800’sIndustrial revolutionDemand for labourers (economic advantage to have large family)Later improved water supply and sewerageBirth control adviceCompulsory educationPublic Health Acts 1848 and 18691900’sMedical developmentsTwo world wars Greater focus on child welfareWidespread contraceptive use after 1960Legalised abortion 1967Standards of living increased and growth of the consumer societyMore women in education and careers2000’sLow birth rates and death rates and a concern about low population growth. Ageing population

UK population pyramid 2011

UK population pyramid 2025

Demographic ageing

•Falling mortality rates

•Increase in life expectancy (longevity)

•Decline in fertility

Demographic ageing UK Facts• In 2007 the number of people above State Pension Age (SPA) exceeded those aged under 16 for the first time ever, and older people now make up the fastest-growing group in the population.• In 2007 9.8 million people were aged over 65 but by 2032 this figure is projected to rise to 16.1 million – equivalent to almost one in four of the population. • At the same time, the numbers of the ‘oldest old’ – people aged 85 and over – will more than double, rising from 1.3 million in 2007 to 3.1 million in 2032.• 2014, projections suggest, over-65-year-olds will overtake the under-16s. • 2025, the number of over-60s will have passed the under-25s for the first time. • Life expectancy at birth is increasing but an even more telling figure is the increase in life expectancy after 60. In the UK, a man who turned 60 in 1981 could expect to live another 16 years and a woman almost 21 years. By 2003 this had increased to 20 years for men and 23 for women; and according to official UK projections, by 2026 this will rise to almost 24 years for men and almost 27 for women.

Benefits and ChallengesBenefits Challenges

Employment -in private nursing (home or residential care)-home help (provision of meals, cleaning etc.)-e.g. DIY stores like B&Q and Homebase

Decline in ratio of workers to pensionersCurrently 3.3 - by 2032 and taking into account changes in SPA expected to fall to 2.9

Manufacturing niches – chair lifts, wheel chairs (allowing people to stay in own home longer)

Increasing pressure on health resources (although could be offset by people living healthier lifestyles)

Demand for housing-sheltered accommodation-nursing/residential homes (often in large converted period properties)-local authority

Bringing unused/vacant buildings land into use

Demand for housing-sheltered accommodation-nursing/residential homes (often in large converted period properties)-local authority

Finding the right buildings in the right location to meet the needs of people

Leisure industry – gymsDating websites

Welfare costs in the UK are increasing – already takes nearly 25% of the GDP (although this is lower than some other EU countries)

People live longer 41% of NHS spending goes on the over 65’s

Holiday industry – e.g. SAGA used to just market pensioners, now targets over 50’s

Many people do not have an occupational pension. For those that do depend upon the profits being made by companies

Options

- Pensioners are poorer- Taxes and National Insurance increase- Age of retirement increases. This will be equalised for men and women at 65 in the UK between 2010 and 2020 but it could rise even further. Already 67 in Denmark, Norway and 70 in Iceland- Make it compulsory to contribute to a private pension fund, people must save for their own retirement- Reduce the way in which pension funds are distributed to protect less well off at the expense of the more well off (will meet opposition)

The UK’s ageing future – other considerations• the 'compression of morbidity‘• retired people continue to pay their taxes• many retired people care, unpaid, for their grandchildren or their own elderly relatives – estimates suggest this is worth £10 billion a year • figures suggest that up to 35% of people aged 75+ regularly give up some of their free time to help others• the ‘grey pound’• participation in society in other ways, such as voting or joining pressure groups and forums, is also high among current retirees • voting power

Sample questionsJanuary 2010 Distinguish between birth rate and fertility rate (4)

Outline the usefulness of infant mortality as an indicator of development (4)

June 2009Outline and comment on the economic and political consequences of population change

(15)

Specimen paperDefine infant mortality and life expectancy (4)

Outline some of the issues for economic development linked with a populationstructure with a very high proportion of people over 65 years old (5)

Additional specimen questionsIn order to calculate the Population Growth Rate for a country you would need the figure for Birth Rate (%). What is the other vital rates (population statistic) you would need and explain how you would use them to calculate the Growth Rate? (4)

Some of the countries in Figure 7 could be said to be in Stage 5 of the demographic transition model. Discuss the implications of a shrinking population for the economies of countries affected. (5)