Global Warming, Economics and Christian Ethics

Timothy D. Boyle

Economics Department, Kwansei Gakuin University

Aims Of This PresentationAims Of This Presentation

1. The Environment and Christian ethics

2. Setting the Stage: The Earth’s Design

3. Mechanisms of Global Warming

4. Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Real?

5. Possible Solutions and Economic Implications

1. The Environment and Christian ethics

2. Setting the Stage: The Earth’s Design

3. Mechanisms of Global Warming

4. Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Real?

5. Possible Solutions and Economic Implications

Part 1The Environment and Christian ethics

Part 1The Environment and Christian ethics

• “Rule over … every living creature…” Gen. 1:28• The LORD God took the man and put him in the

Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it. Gen 2:15

• For six years sow your fields… . But in the seventh year the land is to have a sabbath of rest… . The land is to have a year of rest. Lev. 25:3-5

• The Bible teaches that God entrusted the earth’s resources to humans, and it is our responsibility to use them wisely.

• “Rule over … every living creature…” Gen. 1:28• The LORD God took the man and put him in the

Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it. Gen 2:15

• For six years sow your fields… . But in the seventh year the land is to have a sabbath of rest… . The land is to have a year of rest. Lev. 25:3-5

• The Bible teaches that God entrusted the earth’s resources to humans, and it is our responsibility to use them wisely.

Part 2Setting the Stage

Formation of the Solar System 4.6 Billion

Years Ago

Part 2Setting the Stage

Formation of the Solar System 4.6 Billion

Years Ago

The Early Earth and the Formation of the Moon

The Early Earth and the Formation of the Moon

Without the moon, life on earth would be impossible.

(4 minute video clip)

Without the moon, life on earth would be impossible.

(4 minute video clip)

Without the moon formation event, the earth would be like Venus

Atmosphere is 96.5% CO2 with a pressure about 93 times that of earth

Surface temperature: 467 ﾟ C

Transformations of the AtmosphereTransformations of the Atmosphere

Much thinner than the original atmosphere

An atmosphere that allowed a stable water cycle

An atmosphere protected by a strong magnetic field

An atmospheric makeup transformed by life activities

Much thinner than the original atmosphere

An atmosphere that allowed a stable water cycle

An atmosphere protected by a strong magnetic field

An atmospheric makeup transformed by life activities

Factors Necessary for a Life-Support PlanetFactors Necessary for a Life-Support Planet

Factors relative to the entire universe (more than 30) Example: Ratio of the strengths of the gravitational force and the electromagnetic force must be fine-tuned to better than 1 part in 1040 (1040 = 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000).

Parameters of the galaxy and parent star (several dozen)

Planetary factors, such as mass, chemical makeup, distance from parent star, etc. (more than 100)

More than 200 fine-tuned factors.

Factors relative to the entire universe (more than 30) Example: Ratio of the strengths of the gravitational force and the electromagnetic force must be fine-tuned to better than 1 part in 1040 (1040 = 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000).

Parameters of the galaxy and parent star (several dozen)

Planetary factors, such as mass, chemical makeup, distance from parent star, etc. (more than 100)

More than 200 fine-tuned factors.

Factors Necessary for a Life-Support Planet (2)Factors Necessary for a Life-Support Planet (2)

Timing of life development vis a vis luminosity increase of parent star.

Timing of life development vis a vis luminosity increase of parent star.

The “Greenhouse effect” was necessary to keep earth warm enough for life. But it had to be gradually reduced to keep earth from getting too hot due to increasing solar luminosity.

Part 3 Mechanisms of Global Warming

Part 3 Mechanisms of Global Warming

Without “greenhouse gases,”

earth would be 33 ﾟ C cooler.

Without “greenhouse gases,”

earth would be 33 ﾟ C cooler.

Atmospheric Trans-

mission and Absorption of Radiant

Energy

Atmospheric Trans-

mission and Absorption of Radiant

Energy

Natural Causes for Climate VariationNatural Causes for Climate Variation

Milankovitch Cycles

History of Eccentricity, Tilt, and Precession

History of Eccentricity, Tilt, and Precession

Important Climate OscillationsImportant Climate OscillationsOrbital factorsMilankovitch Cycles

Oceanic

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) El Niñoño – La Niñña - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Arctic Oscillation (AO) Pacific-North American Teleconnection (PNA) Antarctic Oscillation

Solar 11-Year Solar Cycle (Sunspots) Long-Term Solar Cycles (70-90, 500 years +) Variable Solar Irradiance

Orbital factorsMilankovitch Cycles

Oceanic

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) El Niñoño – La Niñña - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Arctic Oscillation (AO) Pacific-North American Teleconnection (PNA) Antarctic Oscillation

Solar 11-Year Solar Cycle (Sunspots) Long-Term Solar Cycles (70-90, 500 years +) Variable Solar Irradiance

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in Ocean Currents Have Huge Effect on Climate

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in Ocean Currents Have Huge Effect on Climate

Arctic OscillationArctic Oscillation

Positive Phase Negative PhasePositive Phase Negative Phase

In Negative Phase, cold air more likely to flow into Japan, the Eastern United States and Europe

Solar ActivitySolar Activity

Almost all of the energy that drives the climate comes from solar radiation.

Almost all of the energy that drives the climate comes from solar radiation.

The Effect of AerosolsThe Effect of Aerosols

Depending on type and distribution, aerosols can have either a warming or cooling effect.

Depending on type and distribution, aerosols can have either a warming or cooling effect.

Even Cosmic Rays Affect the ClimateEven Cosmic Rays Affect the Climate

Reduced Flux of Cosmic Rays Contributes to

Global Warming

Reduced Flux of Cosmic Rays Contributes to

Global Warming

Part 4 Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Real?

Part 4 Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Real?

Powerful vested interests and agendas

Conflicting Scientific Claims

Powerful vested interests and agendas

Conflicting Scientific Claims

As Reported in the Washington Post The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing

scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.

The Date of the Report?

November

1922!

The Climate Is Always ChangingThe Climate Is Always Changing

The debate is about how much is from natural causes and how much is man-made and what can and should be done about it.

The debate is about how much is from natural causes and how much is man-made and what can and should be done about it.

According to Al Gore and some members of the IPCC, we must take drastic action to save the planet!

On the other hand, some scientists deny any significant, human-caused climate change.

(DVD clips from documentary “Not Evil, Just

Wrong: The True Cost of Global Warming Hysteria”)

How important really is CO2?How important really is CO2?

Essentially all of the radiant energy that can be absorbed by CO2 is absorbed in the first 1000m. Increasing CO2 levels only increases absorption logarithmically.

Essentially all of the radiant energy that can be absorbed by CO2 is absorbed in the first 1000m. Increasing CO2 levels only increases absorption logarithmically.

Methane also important Greenhouse gas

Methane also important Greenhouse gas

Much easier to reduce than CO2Much easier to reduce than CO2

Methane Sources:Rice paddies 22%Marshes 21%Cattle 15%Natural gas 9%Landfills 8%

Carbon Soot

Carbon soot is estimated to have 3 times the effect of CO2 on artic climate, and 80% of that is anthropogenic.

Himalayan glaciers have been retreating in recent years, but 90% of the cause is carbon soot and aerosols in the air.

Many areas depend on glacial melt for much of their water

Many areas depend on glacial melt for much of their water

IPCC had to retract its 2007 claim that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by

2035

IPCC had to retract its 2007 claim that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by

2035

Part 5 Possible Solutions and Economic

Implications

Part 5 Possible Solutions and Economic

Implications

Role of CO2 greatly overestimated

Relative ease with which factors other than CO2 can be addressed

Cost of proposed “solutions” to economy

Huge opportunity to develop new technologies

Role of CO2 greatly overestimated

Relative ease with which factors other than CO2 can be addressed

Cost of proposed “solutions” to economy

Huge opportunity to develop new technologies

Need for economic justiceNeed for economic justice

Forcing large cuts in CO2 emissions will drastically increase energy costs

While it will affect everybody, the poor will suffer the most.

Forcing large cuts in CO2 emissions will drastically increase energy costs

While it will affect everybody, the poor will suffer the most.

Human-centered SolutionsHelping people in developing countries recover their own environment.

Saving Himalayan glaciers by reducing soot in air: Clean cooking stoves.

Desertification in Africa and Central Asia

Desertification in Africa and Central Asia

◊ Getting out of the vicious cycle of desertification

◊ Providing cooking stoves and fuel◊ Reforestation would provide a carbon sink

◊ Getting out of the vicious cycle of desertification

◊ Providing cooking stoves and fuel◊ Reforestation would provide a carbon sink

“Fertilizing” the Ocean“Fertilizing” the Ocean

• Sea plankton absorbs more CO2 than any other carbon sink

• Sperm whale excrement is best fertilizer

• Possibility of artificially adding iron to seawater

• Sea plankton absorbs more CO2 than any other carbon sink

• Sperm whale excrement is best fertilizer

• Possibility of artificially adding iron to seawater

Opportunity For Japanese Leadership

Even without the issue of CO2 emissions, the age of fossil fuels is coming to an end.

Need for new technologies

Conclusions (1)

Global Warming (and cooling) is a naturally occurring cyclical phenomenon with a relatively small anthropogenic factor added on.

CO2 reduction is grossly overemphasized, and so we should use our remaining fossil fuel wisely for the economic wellbeing of all.

Efforts do need to be made to reduce CO2 emissions where feasible, but also to increase CO2 absorption, which is likely more effective.

Conclusions (2)Opportunity for moral and technological

contribution to solving manmade climate change

From standpoint of Christian ethics, solutions must give priority to human welfare

It is our responsibility to return to the principle that God has entrusted earth’s resources to us to manage wisely for human benefit