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Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry The World Bank Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin Nikolai Dobrott, Managing Partner May 7, 2010

Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

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Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry. The World Bank Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin Nikolai Dobrott, Managing Partner May 7, 2010. Between 2010 and 2030 global primary energy demand is projected to grow by 34%. Projected Primary Energy Demand [ Mtoe ]. 18,000. 16,000. 2010. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

The World Bank Knowledge Economy Forum IX, Berlin

Nikolai Dobrott, Managing Partner

May 7, 2010

Page 2: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

2

Between 2010 and 2030 global primary energy demand is projected to grow by 34%.Projected Primary Energy Demand [Mtoe]

1980 2000 2007 2015 20300

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Latin AmericaAfricaPacificMiddle EastEastern EuropeEuropeNorth AmericaAsia

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009.

2010

Page 3: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

3

Globally renewable energy deployment has grown significantly.World renewable net electricity generating capacity development [GW]

1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 20070

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Wave and TidalSolar thermalGeothermalSolar PVBiomassWind

Source: IEA Renewables information 2009.

Page 4: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

4

Promoting clean technologies represents a highly attractive opportunity to meet future energy challenges.Advantages of clean technologies

• Less dependency on fossil fuels and prices

• Energy security through diversified energy mix

• Decentralized energy supply and cost-effective opportunities for rural electrification

• Highly reduced CO2 emissions and opportunity for CDM projects

• Creating a local growth industry

• Qualified jobs

Global renewable energy market size in 2008 and 2018e [billion USD]

Biofuels Wind Solar PV Total

34.851.4

29.6

115.9105.4

139.1

80.6

325.12008 2018

Source: Clean Edge 2009

Page 5: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

5

Within ten years installed renewable capacities in Germany have almost quadrupled. Cumulative installed capacities [GW]

Source: BMU 2010

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Geothermal

Biomass

Solar PV

Wind

Page 6: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

6

Renewable energies have become a significant industry in Germany.Renewable energies in numbers (2009)

• 16.1% of electricity consumption

• 8.4% of heat production

• EUR 17.7 bn investment in new installations (+19.4%)

• EUR 33.4 bn in revenues (+8.9%)

• 292,900 jobs in total

Source: BMU 20102004 2006 2007 2008 2009

65,000 74,500 83,000 85,100 87,100

56,800

95,400 96,100 99,100 105,70027,000

48,50055,500 57,000

64,600

14,700

17,90018,200

33,60035,500

Wind Biomass Solar Other

163,500

236,300252,800

274,800292,900

Job development in the renewable energy sector 2004–2009

Page 7: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

The eastern German ‘Solar Valley’ – an example for successful cluster development.• Area: 108,585 km²

• Inhabitants: ~16 million (1/5 of Germany’s total; incl. 3.5 million in Berlin)

• Eastern Germany features the world’s largest PV industry cluster:

- Wafer-based technology: 28 companies with a production capacity of more than 3,7 GW

- Thin-film technology: 26 companies- Equipment suppliers: 13 large companies- Research: several world-class institutes - Education: several universities and colleges with

solar-specific courses- Approx. 15,000 direct employees

7

Source: Germany Trade & Invest 2009.

Equipment for thin-film, automationlaser processing

Leipzig

Frankfurt

Munich

Hamburg

Germany

Leipzig

Berlin

Stuttgart

Düsseldorf

Frankfurt

PV companiesEquipment manufacturers

Research institutions

Solar Valley

Dresden

Page 8: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

8

'97 '98'99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '90

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

By implementing effective policy measures, Germany has taken the lead in solar energy within a few years. Annually installed PV capacities [MWp] PV industry turnover development [m EUR]

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

500

1,700

2,800

4,500

6,100

9,5009,000

100,000 roofs program

Renewed feed-in tariff law

Feed-in tariff law

Renewed feed-in tariff law

Source: BMU 2010.

Page 9: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

9

Best practice example for short term policy measures: 100,000 roof program in Germany.Key data of the program

Duration: 5 years (Jan. 1999 – Dec. 2003)

Effects:

• Generated 345 MW of installed capacity, almost 100% of total PV growth during this period

• 73,787 loans supported

• Total loan volume: EUR 1.6 bn.

Costs: ca. EUR 250 million

Policy design:

• Long maturity loans with low interest rates: 1.9% p.a. undertaken by state-owned KfW bank

Further policy measures during program:

• Renewable Energy Sources Act (2001)

Annually installed PV capacities [MWp]

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Source: Apricum Research 2010

100,000 roofs program

Page 10: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

10

Reliable government support leads to high installed capacities and the development of local manufacturing.

PV cell production world market share 2009

Installed capacity 2009

Germany

SpainJapan

USA

South Korea

Italy

ChinaFrance

Source: Apricum Research 2010

Best practice

Page 11: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

Major drivers for cluster development are dependent on political will and commitment.

11

Strong domestic market

Investment incentives

Industrial fit

Favorable infrastruc-ture

Cost advantages

Research institutions and

universities

Public awareness and

support

Investment promo-tion

Cluster Drivers

Page 12: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

12

Apricum proposes a three-way approach to develop a self-sustaining Cleantech cluster.

Self-sustaining Cleantech cluster

Local manufacturing

• Developing targeted manufacturing incentives in identified key solar applications.

Domestic demand R&D

• Extension of market incentive schemes (e.g. FIT), specifically targeting identified key solar applications.

• Enabling targeted incentives for key innovations

• Promoting Cleantech and solar energy R&D

• Exploiting the full potential of the pool of well-educated and versatile workforce.

Page 13: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

Apricum has the experience and strength to support your location in cluster development.

• Global Cleantech industry and market expertise competency

• experience in economic development:

• Thorough understanding of industry requirements for market entry, location analysis and site selection

• Excellent connection to industry players worldwide

• Experts in investment promotion and cluster development including market and manufacturing incentive schemes

• Consultancy project record for states and regions in Germany, USA and Middle East

• International team of experienced consultants

• Country representative in emerging markets

13

Page 14: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

14

Client

Project summary

Saudi Arabian governmental institution and KAUST – King Abdullah University of Science and Technology

Steps taken by Apricum

Development of a national solar strategy

Location benchmarking vs. leading sites around the world for all segments of the value chain

Global R&D best-practice analysis

Development of solar investment promotion strategy

Solar investor attraction and targeting

ResultIdentification of high-potential solar R&D fields

Full roadmap for the development of a solar industry

SERVICES

Institutional/governmental advisory– selected references.

Page 15: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

15

Client

Portland Metropolitan Area, USA

Project summary

Third-largest city in the Pacific Northwest Region of the U.S.; plans to become number-one U.S. solar and important Cleantech manufacturing site

Steps taken by Apricum

Cleantech positioning and investment attraction strategy

Evaluate site attractiveness based on Cleantech manufacturer’s decision model

Benchmark Portland sites in relation to alternative sites worldwide

Identify relevant site parameters that can be influenced on a local basis

Segment potential investors and set up meetings with selected companies

ResultInterview potential investors for evaluation of Portland’s site attractiveness

Developed investor targeting strategy including measures to increase site attractiveness

SERVICES

Institutional/governmental advisory– selected references.

Page 16: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

16

SERVICES

Institutional/governmental advisory– selected references. Client

Project summaryEconomic development agency of the German Federal State of Saxony

Steps taken by Apricum

Develop investor attraction strategy for selected Cleantech industry segments

Analyze market potential of selected Cleantech segments

Evaluate attractiveness of Saxony as investment location, benchmark against worldwide investment locations

Derive target segments, i.e., most attractive Cleantech segments for investment attraction

Develop investment attraction strategy and derive USP

ResultIdentify potential investors in target segments and profile identified potential investors

Investment attraction strategy completed within eight weeks; prepared client to approach investors in subsequent phase, assisted by Apricum

Page 17: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

Apricum GmbHNeue Grünstr. 17 | 10179 Berlin | Germany

T. +49.30.308 77 62 - 0 | F. +49.30.308 77 62 - [email protected]

www.apricum-group.com

Page 18: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

Back-up.

Page 19: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

19

Renewable industries turnover in Germany (2009).

Solar PV9 million

Biomass11.4 million

WindEUR 5.6 million

Solar thermalEUR 4.9 million

WaterEUR 1.4 million

TotalEUR 33.37 million

Source: BMU 2010.

Page 20: Growth Opportunities in the Cleantech Industry

20

Country

Main market support scheme Cumulative PV capacity (2009)

World market share PV cell production (2009)

Germany Uncapped FIT (since 1991)

9,100 MW 15.0%

Spain Capped FIT (since 2008)

3,500 MW 1.0 %

Japan FIT (since 2008)

2,640 MW 12.6 %

USA Tax credits, RPS (since 2006) 1,380 MW 4.4 %

South Korea Capped FIT (uncapped until 2008) 453 MW 1.9 %

Italy Capped FIT (since 2005) 900 MW 0.7 %

China Capped regional tendering processes (since 2010)

200 MW 38.0 %

France FIT (since 2009) 285 MW 0.4 %

Capacities vs. cell production share 2009.