Africa ResearchBulletin Political

Social andCultural Series

Volume 49 Number 4 April 1st–30th 2012

GUINEA BISSAUElections Derailed by Coup

The military junta defies calls for areturn to constitutional order andannounces an interim governingcouncil.

On April 12th, on the eve of the kickoffof the campaign for the April 29th pres-idential runoff, soldiers armed withrocket-propelled grenades and Kalashni-kov rifles seized the headquarters of theruling African Party for the Indepen-dence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PA-IGC) party and the national radiostation. They arrested outgoing PrimeMinister ⁄presidential front-runner Car-los Gomes Junior and President Raimun-do Pereira (appointed as interim head ofstate following the death in January fol-lowing a long illness of President MalamBacai Sanha).

Gomes Junior was whisked away in apick-up truck after troops assaulted hisresidence late on the 12th. The AfricanUnion (AU) immediately called on thetroops to ‘‘honour their commitment toserve under the authority of the consti-

tutionally established institutions ofthe Republic of Guinea Bissau,’’AFPreported (13 ⁄ 4).Gunfire and ambulance sirens echoedthrough a city plunged into darkness aselectricity was cut off. A military sourcesaid the arrested prime minister hadbeen taken to army headquarters at SanVincente, 45 km north of the capital,but the whereabouts of the presidentwere not known. On April 13th heavilyarmed soldiers were patrolling the streetsof Bissau. They were also gathered atthe finance and justice ministries.

Gomes Junior is not popular with themilitary, which he had vowed to prune.He had won the first round of the elec-tion, while former president KumbaYala, who has strong ties to the mili-tary, was second. Yala then called for aboycott of the second round, allegingthat the first was rigged. ‘‘I will not takepart in an election sullied by massivefraud, an election where thousands werenot counted,’’ said the ex-president whowas ousted in 2003 following three yearsat the head of a regime plagued byinstability. As the poll took place 60days after the death of Sanha, thecountry made use of a 2008 electoralregister which excludes those who cameof voting age in the interim and doesnot discount those who may have died.

Gomes Junior and Pereira were releasedon April 27th. Economic Community ofWest African States (ECOWAS) minis-ters, who met in The Gambia on April30th, welcomed the move and urged themilitary command to free the otherpolitical detainees held in the wake ofthe coup, PANA reported (30 ⁄ 4).Guinea Bissau has a long history ofcoups, misrule and political instabilitysince it gained independence fromPortugal in 1974. Since 1998, it has beenthrough one war, four military coupsand the murder of one president andfour military chiefs-of-staff. No presi-

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This issue pp. 19219–258

Sudan – South Sudan

Fear Of War 19222

Malawi

President Joyce Banda 19227

Mali

Interim Government 19229

Azawad State 19242

Libya

Tribal Tensions 19240

Tunisia

Centrist Coalition 19236

Violent Demos 19248

Liberia ⁄ Sierra Leone

Charles Taylor Guilty 19253

Contents

Continental Alignments 19222

Internal Developments 19225

National Security 19237

Military 19250

National Overseas 19252

Social and Cultural 19254

Rates 19257

Index 19258

Published monthly since 1964 http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/arbp

� Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2012. ISSN 0001 9844

dent has ever completed a full term inoffice. In the days leading up to thecoup, there had been fears of unrest andthe first round of the election hadalready been tainted by the assassina-tion of former military intelligence chiefColonel Samba Diallo. Diallo had beenaccused of involvement in a 2009 bomb-ing that killed the then army chief andin turn prompted the murder of presi-dent Joao Bernardo Vieira in a revengeattack, AFP (14 ⁄ 4) pointed out.

Since independence in 1974, GuineaBissau’s army and state have remainedin constant, often deadly, conflict. Thisinstability has allowed cocaine traffick-ers to exploit the struggling state as atransit point for cocaine being movedfrom Latin America into Europe. Thedrug trade is worth about double thecountry’s official GDP and senior armyofficials allegedly control the trade.Army officers have even re-claimeddrugs seized by the ill-equipped police.

Secret Angola Deal Alleged

The military command accused Angolaof interfering in security matters. Lieu-tenant Colonel Daba Nah Waina, oneof the coup’s leaders, told InterPress-Service in Dakar (20 ⁄ 4): ‘‘The crisis hasbeen brewing since Angolan soldiersarrived in Guinea Bissau with vehiclesand weapons, but without notifying thechief of staff of the armed forces of thecountry.’’

Since October 2011, some 300 Angolantroops have been present in GuineaBissau, drafted in to reform the armyand police of the country in line withan agreement between the two govern-ments. But the coup plotters accuseAngola of wanting to ‘‘destroy’’ thecountry’s army and have demandedthat Angolan troops leave. Theyclaimed to have acted because of analleged secret agreement between Go-mes and the Angolan government to‘‘annihilate Guinea Bissau’s armedforces,’’ said Freedom House (25 ⁄ 4).Former colonial power Portugal, con-demning the coup, rejected suggestionsthat there was anything untoward inthe Angolan military presence, AFPreported (15 ⁄ 4).The coup seems to have been motivatedby a desire to pre-empt Gomes Junior’sexpected crackdown on corrupt armygenerals. Such a move might have beenaided by the elite troops from Angola.Gomes intended to implement a long-overdue reform of the security sector,which would involve reducing the sizeof the armed forces; retiring older sol-diers; and building up the civilianpolice force, say many observers.

Some international officials say certainmilitary leaders do not wish to be

retired, fearing they will no longerbenefit from their privileged position inthe drug trafficking economy.

The Pretoria-based Institute for Secu-rity Studies (ISS, 24 ⁄ 4) noted in itsanalysis that there was ‘‘hardly a coun-try in Africa where the army representssuch a great danger for peace and sta-bility’’ as in Guinea Bissau. It said thearmy had put forward ‘‘a number offallacious arguments opposing the mili-tary presence of Angola in the country.In reality, it is the Prime Minister Car-los Gomes Junior and his reformagenda backed by Angola that havebecome the main target of the rebel-lious soldiers.

Although he won PAIGC endorsement,Gomes’ decision to stand for the transi-tional presidential elections revived oldantagonisms between leaders with liber-ation credentials and those perceived tobe harbouring a reformist agendawithin the ranks of the ruling party, theISS said. While Carlos Gomes Juniorwas endorsed by key structures of theparty as its main candidate, two othercontenders, Manuel Serifo Nhamadjo(interim National Speaker) and BaciroDia (Defence Minister), broke ranksand stood as independents. However,Gomes enjoys significant supportamong external actors, includingAngola - a country that has become amajor player in the national politics ofGuinea Bissau. It is precisely this sup-port and his alleged attempt to redefinea new balance of power that promptedthe military coup.

ISS pointed out that just days beforethe coup, a tripartite ECOWAS AfricanUnion (AU)-UN mission met with themilitary to underscore the importanceof the military in preventing the disrup-tion of the electoral process. Also, theECOWAS mediation and the UN Secu-rity Council had recommended thedeployment of an ECOWAS-led peacesupport mission in Guinea Bissau –including a civilian component led byGuinean President Alpha Conde –intended to replace the Angolan forcesand ensure an effective implementationof a regional roadmap on the defenceand security sector reform programmeand promote civilian protection. There-fore the justification of the militarycoup based on the presence of theAngolan mission is misplaced.

On the margins of the extraordinaryECOWAS summit in Abidjan, Coted’Ivoire on April 26th the ECOWASCommission President presented theregional leaders’ directive to theCommander of the ECOWAS StandbyForce’s Joint Task Force to GuineaBissau. The 638-strong regional force,drawn from Cote d’Ivoire, BurkinaFaso, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo, was

to be deployed in Guinea Bissau withindays to replace the Angolan troops,PANA reported (26 ⁄ 4). ECOWASgave the junta 72 hours to accept thedecision or face diplomatic, economicand financial sanctions, a final state-ment said, also threatening prosecutionbefore the International Criminal Court(ICC) in The Hague. The force is to beled by Barro Gnibanga of BurkinaFaso AFP reported (27 ⁄ 4).

Transitional Council

On April 18th, after talks between thejunta and leaders of 20 opposition par-ties, and in defiance of agreements withECOWAS, AU suspension and interna-tional condemnation, a National Tran-sitional Council (NTC) was formed torun the country for two years saidJunta spokesman Lieutenant-ColonelDaba Da Walna. Former parliamentaryspeaker and independent presidentialcandidate Nhamadjo, who finishedthird in the first round of presidentialelections (p.19195), was named NTChead but he told Al Jazeera (20 ⁄ 4) thathe had not been consulted. Later heturned the position down.

The second in command of the Partyfor Social Renewal (PRS), IbraimaSory Djalo, was also appointed ‘‘con-sensually’’ Italian-based MissionaryService News Agency (Misna) websitereported (20 ⁄ 4).Kumba Yala signed the declarationwhich called for the dissolution of gov-ernment institutions and the implemen-tation of the two-year transitional ruleproposal. As a member of the Balante,a strong ethnic group which dominatesthe army, and a long-time supporter ofthe military, Yala is suspected ofinvolvement in the coup despite hisavowed condemnation of the militaryaction.

The transition’s commitment to armyreform, economic reform and the fightagainst drug trafficking and organisedcrime are not being taken seriouslyabroad commented Africa Confidential(27 ⁄ 4).The UN Security Council on April 21stthreatened to impose sanctions againstcoup-leaders. Following this announce-ment, the Junta allegedly shifted itshardline stance, telling a reporter thetwo-year transition government wasjust a proposal, according to one inter-national press report.

The PAIGC simultaneously announcedthe creation of an ‘Anti-Coup NationalFront’ along with 8 other parties closeto Gomes Junior and Pereira. The newfront announced the objective of ‘‘con-ducting a political struggle to restorethe law of rights and return power tothe democratically elected institutions’’.

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Other parties contrary to the junta, butthat do not intend to ally with thePAIGC, have begun consultations for ajoint initiative.

ECOWAS condemned the two-yeartransition deal as illegal and called forthe immediate return of constitutionalrule. ‘‘The Commission strongly con-demns this illegal initiative, particularlyafter the Junta had given a writtenundertaking, following its meeting witha high-level ECOWAS delegation inBissau on April 16th 2012, to step asideto pave the way for the immediatereturn to constitutional normality withthe facilitation of ECOWAS.’’

A very high-ranking west African dele-gation made up of ministers and chiefsof staff had visited Bissau on the 16thto meet those responsible for the coup.ECOWAS communications directorSonny Ugoh announced that it was‘‘completely taken aback’’ by the tran-sition proposal. (� AFP, Johannesburg17 ⁄ 4;IRIN 21 ⁄ 4)

Media Blackout

The coup has been followed by ‘‘grave’’media freedom violations, includingthreats to journalists, a news blackoutand media censorship, say the MediaFoundation for West Africa (MFWA),Reporters Without Borders (RSF) andFreedom House.

According to RSF, the military highcommand suspended all media activityfollowing the coup for the sake of‘‘national cohesion.’’ The military toldmedia executives at a meeting on April16th that the media could resume oper-ations as long as they did not mentionprotests in the capital. RSF called themove ‘‘the introduction of military cen-sorship.’’

Only Guinea Bissau’s state-ownedRadio Nacional, which is occupied bysoldiers, continued to broadcast musicand military communiques appealingfor calm.

Antonio Aly Silva, the well-known blog-ger of Didatura do Consenso (Dictator-ship of Consensus), was arrested andbeaten by soldiers while he was photo-graphing military installations on April13th reported MFWA and RSF. Hewas released a few hours later but hisequipment was confiscated.

Soldiers also took over the premises ofthe Portuguese broadcaster RTP-Africa, threatened staff at gunpoint andstole cameras and other equipmentfrom them, reported RSF.

Although there were no deaths duringthe takeover of power, a climate of fearand uncertainty pervades the capital,Bissau, with repressive measures beingemployed by the military, according to

observers and rights groups. Road-blocks have been set up throughout thecapital, with cars routinely stopped andsearched.

In some areas MPs and other officialsof the PAIGC have reportedly beentargeted and arrested. Many Bissau-Guineans have reportedly travelled to

the countryside or to neighbouringGambia and nearby Senegal to ride outthe instability, IRIN reported (21 ⁄ 4).(Sources as referenced in text)

Drug Smuggling and Power

Many commentators focussed on howthe coup threatened democratic gains

Bissau Coup

2nd: ECOWAS names Guinean PresidentAlpha Conde as mediator in Guinea Bis-sau after opposition threatens to boycottthe presidential run-off.

4th: Yala rejects Conde’s appointment ashe ‘‘ has disqualified himself by leaningtowards our adversaries.’’

8th: The Supreme Court throws out a bidto have the March 18th vote declaredinvalid, rejects appeals lodged by fiveopposition candidates (including Yala)and validates first round results - CarlosGomes junior 49% and Yala 23%.

10th: Angola announces that it will with-draw its mission, MISSANG.

11th: The second-round presidential voteis postponed from April 22nd to April29th.

12th. Yala calls for a new boycott of theupcoming vote. A few hours later, thearmy seizes hq of PAIGC and radio sta-tion. Arrests PM ⁄ presidential frontrun-ner Carlos Gomes Junior and InterimPresident Raimundo Pereira.

13th: The army confirms it has deposedPereira, Gomes Junior and the army chief-of-staff General Antonio Indjai. Coupleaders set out terms for a ‘‘unity govern-ment’’ impose an overnight curfew, call onmembers of the toppled government tosurrender and confirm that private radiostations have been shut down.

14th: The Community of PortugueseSpeaking Countries (CPLP), currentlyheaded by Angola, adopts a resolution ata meeting in Lisbon, calling for the crea-tion of an ‘‘intervention force under theaegis of the UN’’. The United States, Can-ada and Nigeria join the chorus of con-demnation.

15th: The military authorities close thecountry’s maritime borders and airspaceto preclude foreign intervention. Protestersdemanding the release of Gomes Juniorand Pereira are dispersed by the military.

16th: UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moonexpresses grave concern over coup leadersdeclared plans to establish a transitionalgovernment. The EU issues strong con-demnation. ECOWAS sends a delegationto Bissau. Coup leaders agree to allow theimmediate restoration of normal constitu-tional rule.

17th: The African Union (AU) suspendsGuinea Bissau from all AU activities withimmediate effect, pending restoration ofconstitutional order. The African Develop-ment Bank (AfDB) and the World Banksuspend development programmes, with

the exception of urgent assistance. SouthAfrica adds its voice to other Africn coun-tries to deplore the coup and former colo-nial power Portugal says it is sending navyships and a plane for a possible evacuationof its nationals.

18th: The National Transitional Council(NTC) is formed to run the country fortwo years after an agreement between thejunta and leaders of 20 opposition partiessays Junta spokesman Lieutenant- ColonelDaba Da Walna. Manuel Sherif Nha-madjo, who finished third in the firstround of presidential elections on March18th is named head but says he was notconsulted and later turns the post down.

19th: The PAIGC and eight other partiesdenounce the NTC as illegal and call forthe electoral process to be completed.Ousted Foreign Minister Mamadu SaliuDjalo calls on UN to authorize thedeployment of peacekeepers. ECOWAScalls the creation of the NTC an ‘‘usurpa-tion of power’’

20th: The junta says it will not accept UNpeacekeepers as it is not at war. EuropeanCommission chief Jose Manuel Barrosoon a visit to Angola calls for an interna-tional consensus ‘‘so that, beyond con-demning the coup d’etat, we can identifythe necessary steps to resolve or to helpresolve this conflict.’’

21st: Raising the possibility of targetedsanctions, the UN Security Councildemands the immediate restoration of con-stitutional order as well as the reinstate-ment of the legitimate government. Thejunta says its plan for a two-year transi-tion was only a suggestion.

23rd: The EU joins others in saying it willnot recognize the NTC. ECOWAS cancelsan emergency trip to Bissau because of thejunta’s intransigence.

26th: ECOWAS holds an extraordinarysummit in Cote d’Ivoire and mandates an638-strong regional force to replace exist-ing Angolan mission.

27th: ECOWAS gives junta 72 hours toaccept the regional force deployment orface diplomatic, economic and financialsanctions. Gomes Junior and Pereirafreed.

29th: ECOWAS imposes diplomatic, eco-nomic and financial sanctions after a meet-ing in Banjul, The Gambia, between theforeign ministers of the regional ContactGroup and the Guinea Bissau’s politicalstakeholders fail to reach consensus toreturn the country to constitutional rulewithin 12 months.

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both in troubled Guinea Bissau and inthe wider region. ECOWAS ParliamentSpeaker Ike Ekweremadu, called thecoup ‘‘an affront on democratic gover-nance’’.He said the coup, which comeson the heels of a similar attempt inMali (p. 19183) was capable of derail-ing democratic gains in the West Afri-can sub-region.

He said, ‘‘What is going on in Guinea-Bissau is highly condemnable, unjustifi-able, and a slight on the collective willof the peoples of West Africa to liveand prosper under democratic gover-nance, constitutionalism, and rule oflaw’’. (This Day website, Lagos 15 ⁄ 4)

Other commentators looked at the con-nections between the army, narco-trafficand impunity. Former UN representa-tive and Guinea Bissau expert DavidStephen, writing in African Arguments(23 ⁄ 4) commented that ‘‘Prime Minis-ter Gomes had failed, notably, to endyears of mutual suspicion between him

and the army, or to reach out to theBalantes, the largest single ethnicgroup, strong in the army and who seeKumba Yala as their leader. He hadalso let rumours about the role of theAngolan military mission (MISSANG)get out of hand.’’

Stephen argued that ‘‘the non-accep-tance of the election results by KumbaYala and his colleagues, and the accu-sations against Angola, provided asmokescreen for an interventiondesigned to perpetuate a situation ofconstitutional confusion in which themilitary were largely unaccountable,and in which criminality, especiallyregarding narco-traffic, could proceedunhindered. Another key aim of thecoup was to ensure that the assassina-tions and killings of recent years –three of them of former Chiefs of Staffof the Armed Forces – remain unpun-ished and uninvestigated.’’ (AfricanArguments 23 ⁄ 4)

Africa Confidential said the coupappears to be the work of the sameofficers who were involved in previousseizures of power and drug smuggling.It said no Guineans doubted that Indjaiis behind the coup, despite his effortsto stay in the background. The officialline of the coup leaders is that theywere defending the army against immi-nent attack by Missang, backed by theAU, Ghana and Brazil. The Commandclaims to have in its possession a secretdocument signed by Pereira and Gomesoutlining such a plot. Many Guineansbelieve this accusation, which reducespublic sympathy for Gomes, eventhough most are sick of the military’scontinual seizures of power.

The chief objective of the army is toresist army reform and scotch anyefforts to curtail its involvement in thedrugs trade. (Africa Confidential 27 ⁄ 4)Presidential election first round p. 19195

POLITICALRELATIONS

SOUTH SUDAN –SUDAN

State of Emergency

Fighting continues in border areasand raises fears of a wider war.

As Sudan and South Sudan sink deeperinto full-scale conflict and hostile rheto-ric, Sudanese President Omar Hassanal-Bashir on April 29th declared a stateof emergency in some cities of threestates neighbouring South Sudan –namely South Kordofan, Sennar andWhite Nile.

The presidential decree came afterheavy clashes between the Sudaneseand south Sudanese armies over Heglig,reports Sudan Tribune (29 ⁄ 4).The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) arealso battling the combatants of therebel Sudan People’s Liberation Move-ment - ⁄Army-North (SPLM ⁄A-N) andits allies from Darfur rebel groupsmainly in South Kordofan and someparts of the Blue Nile state.

The state of emergency is alreadyimposed in other states borderingSouth Sudan including Blue Nile. Dueto the rebellion in Darfur, a state of

emergency has been in place in the wes-tern half of the boundaries since 2003.

The measure suspends the constitutionand imposes a trade embargo againstthe South.

Nationalist feeling has intensified inSudan after South Sudan occupied thenorth’s main Heglig oil field, part ofSouth Kordofan state, on April 10thfor 10 days, a move which coincidedwith Sudanese air strikes against theSouth in Unity state. It was the mostserious fighting since the South’s inde-pendence and raised fears of a widerwar. Elsewhere in South Kordofan,SPLM-N rebels besieged the town ofTalodi into early April and, after a lull,fighting in the area intensified later inthe month. Both sides said there hadbeen renewed fighting around the stra-tegic town of Talodi, southeast ofUmm Durain.

The seizure of Heglig ratchets upJuba’s confrontation with Khartoum’sNational Congress Party (NCP) regime,which also faces growing pressure fromits opponents in the North, accordingto Africa Confidential (13 ⁄ 4). Juba’sInformation Minister and Spokesman,Barnaba Marial Benjamin Bil, insistedthat taking Heglig was in self-defenceafter Khartoum’s forces had launched aground attack from the town on April9th. Juba’s more assertive strategyshows its support for its former com-rades in the SPLM ⁄A-N and theirvision for change – ending NCP rule.

The African Union (AU) and UnitedNations (UN) Security Council rapidlyrequested the Sudan People’s Libera-tion Army (SPLA) to withdraw fromHeglig.

A surging number of hungry refugeesare fleeing fighting in Sudan wheresome are reduced to foraging in thewild, the United Nations (UN) said onApril 30th, amid new allegations ofSudanese air strikes, � AFP reported(30 ⁄ 4). In South Kordofan, whereinsurgents deny being backed by SouthSudan, a Sudanese air raid killed amother and two children, the SPLM-Nsaid.

Air raids also continued over the week-end against South Sudanese frontlinepositions, the South Sudanese armysaid, despite an AU order the previousweek that the two nations cease borderhostilities within 48 hours. Sudandenied bombing in South Kordofan orSouth Sudan.

Sudan declared on April 20th that itstroops had forced the Southern soldiersout of Heglig, but the South said itwithdrew of its own accord in line withinternational calls.

During the Heglig occupation, Bashirthreatened to overthrow South Sudan’s‘‘insect’’ government.

Sudanese cross-border air raids thatcontinued after the end of the Hegligoccupation drew swift internationalcondemnation. But Khartoum says theSouth’s continued support for rebelsinside Sudan undermines the north’sstability. South Sudan also accuses thenorth of backing rebels on its territory,an allegation the north denies.

Continental Alignments

Continental Alignments

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