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1 Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014 BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF TENDENCY SURVEYS AND CYCLE INDICATORS Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV/IBRE)

Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014

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BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF TENDENCY SURVEYS AND CYCLE INDICATORS. Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV/IBRE). Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014. Overview. Economic Cycles at FGV…………………………………………..3 Timeline……………………………………………………………….4 Tendency Surveys……………………………………………….….5 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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1Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014

BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF TENDENCY SURVEYS AND

CYCLE INDICATORS

Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV/IBRE)

2

Overview

Economic Cycles at FGV…………………………………………..3

Timeline……………………………………………………………….4

Tendency Surveys……………………………………………….….5

Cycle

Indicators...........................................................................9

Mostly used series and quantitative

data...............................10

On Going

Projects.....................................................................14

FGV Economic CyclesFGV Economic Cycles

Tendency Surveys and Cycle IndicatorsTendency Surveys and Cycle IndicatorsTimeline of the FGVTimeline of the FGV

2005Consumer

M

2012M

Labour market leading and coincident Indicators

Trade &Construction

2010M

2008Services

M

Latin AmericanEconomic Survey

2007Q

Experts survey/part of Ifo WES

2013M

Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV

1998Investment

Q

1966Manufacturing (Quarterly until 2005)

M

System of Tendency SurveysSystem of Tendency Surveys

• Since 2008, expansion of coverage and improvements have been supported by the Brazilian Central Bank;

• Main results are made public on FGV´s web site (www.portalibre.fgv.br);

• Detailed results are sold as a means of financing part of the investments.

Main Statistical FeaturesMain Statistical Features

Business tendency Surveys

•Questionnaires and sector coverage are similar to the European Harmonised Programme;

•Firms stratified by size (large, medium and small) and sector;

• Web-based questionnaire complemented by telephone calls.

Consumer Survey

• Questionnaire combines the “European Harmonised”, Michigan and TCB;

• Consumers stratified by income level and region (city);

• Coverage – 7 major cities of the country;

• Data collected by web and telephone calls.

Calendar for FGV Surveys is available at FGV´s web site: http://portalibre.fgv.br/

FGV Surveys – Size of SamplesFGV Surveys – Size of Samples

Sector Size of Sample Number of sectors*

FGV´s monthly Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys

Manufacturing 1,200 21

Services 2,200 29

Trade 1,200 17

Construction 700 11

Total of monthly Business Surveys 5,300 78

Total of Consumer Survey 2,100 4 / 7 *

Quarterly Surveys

Investment 850 21

Latin American Economic Survey 150 ---

* 4 income levels; 7 cities

Indicators from Surveys used in BrazilIndicators from Surveys used in Brazil

Besides the confidence indices, some individual indicators extracted from theses surveys are widely used in Brazil:

• Consumer´s Inflation Expectations (published separately);

• Consumer´s employment assessment;

• Household´s financial situation (delinquency rates);

• Savings/consumption (consumer´s indebtedness cycle);

• Manufacturing Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU);

• Inventory levels;

• Investment Confidence Index – Aggregation of confidence indices from sectors related

to productive investments (eg: capital goods, inputs to construction, etc).

Cycle IndicatorsCycle Indicators

Starting in 2009, FGV created indicators from Tendency Surveys data combined with

other indicators:

• Labour market leading and coincident Indicators (only survey indicators);

• Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV (following the

Conference Board traditional family of indicators).

Manufacturing Confidence IndexManufacturing Confidence Indexx Manufacturing Production*x Manufacturing Production*

Source: FGV/IBRE and IBGE

* Published with a 40-day delay

Future Business Situation x InvestmentFuture Business Situation x Investment

Source: FGV/IBRE

Expected Employment x Industrial EmploymentExpected Employment x Industrial Employment

Source: FGV/IBRE and MTE

Leading Economic Index and Coincident Leading Economic Index and Coincident Economic IndexEconomic Index

Source: FGV/IBRE

The gray areas represent the recessions of the brazilian economy, according to the Economic Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE).

On Going ProjectsOn Going Projects

• Level of capacity utilisation for non-manufacturing sectors (2013-);

• Granting access to microdata from both Consumer and Business surveys to academic researchers from inside and outside FGV (2014);

• Website for the working papers: http://bit.ly/TextosDeDiscussaoIBRE

• Extending the consumer Survey for the whole country (2014-);

• Programme for producing an aggregate Confidence Index for the BRICS’ countries and a Book on the BRICS’ economic cycles (2012-);

Thanks