Health Care Facility Risk Assessment Daniel Kollek Executive Director Centre for excellence in Emergency Preparedness For Brian Schwartz & Bonnie Henry

Health Care FacilityRisk Assessment

Daniel KollekExecutive Director

Centre for excellence in Emergency Preparedness

ForBrian Schwartz & Bonnie Henry

Disaster Preparedness Conference 2006

Risk = Probability x Impact


Components of Risk

Probability?A. Highly likely?B. Likely?C. Possible?D. Unlikely?

Impact?1. Marginal 2. Serious3. Critical 4. Catastrophic


ProbabilityProbabilityRating Description Detail

A Highly Likely nearly 100% probability in next year

B Likelybetween 10 and 100% probability in

next year, or at least one event in next 10 years

C Possiblebetween 1 and 10% probability in

next year, or at least one event in next 100 years

D Unlikelyless than 1% probability in next 100

years


Components of Impact

Type• Human• Physical /infrastucture• Business

Severity1. Marginal 2. Serious3. Critical 4. Catastrophic


Impact - Human

1. unlikely to cause injury, illness or death in community members/providers

2. low probability of injury, illness or death

3. high probability of injury or illness; low probability of death

4. high probability of death


Impact – Physical Infrastructure1. unlikely to cause physical infrastructure

damage causing service disruption with resultant costs/recovery challenges

2. minor physical infrastructure damage3. moderate physical infrastructure

damage 4. extensive physical infrastructure

damage with substantial service disruptions, high costs and extended recovery time


Impact - Business

1. unlikely to cause public/private sector service interruptions

2. minor or limited or short term service interruptions

3. significant/widespread or long term service interruptions

4. Numerous public/private sector entities unable to provide services


Overall Impact Rating11-12 Catastrophic Normal level of functioning or increased

level of public/private services required within the community

8-10 Critical Community can assure a normal level of services with assistance from within region or reduced levels of service with resources existing within the community

5-7 Serious Community can only assure a normal level of services with assistance from outside the region or the community is reduced to providing a minimal level of service with normal resources existing within the community

3-4 Marginal Community cannot assure core public/private services without extensive assistance from provincial or federal resources


Risk Assessment examples

Threat Probability Impact (H+P+B)

Risk

Tornado B 3+3+2 B8

Dirty Bomb B/C/D 3+1+2 B/C/D6

Pandemic influenza

B 4+1+4 B9


Impact Rating

Impact/ProbabilityA

HighlyLikely

BLikely

CPossible

DUnlikel

y

11-12:Catastrophic A11-A12B11-

B12C11-

C12D11-

D12

8 -10: Critical A8-A10 B8-B10 C8-C10 D8-D10

5 - 7: Serious A5-A7 B5-B7 C5-C7 D5-D7

3 - 4: Marginal A3-A4 B3-B4 C3-C4 D3-D4

Risk Rating


Priorities

1. Pandemic ‘flu2. Tornado3. Dirty bomb


Priorities

Perform this exercise for all:• Naturally occurring events• Technological and

infrastructure events• Human related events


Summary

• Assessment of risks is first step in planning

• Helps focus efforts and ensures no possibilities are missed

• Helps prioritize efforts in preparedness

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Health Care Facility Risk Assessment Daniel Kollek Executive Director Centre for excellence in Emergency Preparedness For Brian Schwartz & Bonnie Henry