HEV, P-HEV, and EV market 2011-2020 - AVICENNE P-HEV and EV market 2011-2020... · 2019-03-18 · Christophe PILLOT [email protected] +33(0)1 4778 4600 HEV, P-HEV, and EV market

Christophe PILLOT [email protected]

+33(0)1 4778 4600

HEV, P-HEV, and EV

market 2011-2020

Impact on the battery Business

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT 13 ELBC

PARIS

25 – 28 SEPTEMBRE 2012

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025

Impact on the battery

business

13 ELBC PARIS

25-28 SEPTEMBER 2012

AVICENNE PROFILE

Creation: 1992

Headquarter: Paris

Liaison Office: Japan, USA

AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot

4 consultants in Paris

Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy

with in-depth research

The Rechargeable Battery market

21st Edition

Customized

survey

2


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METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH

TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

Conferences & Exhibitions

Top management contacts network > 17 000 contacts

In Depth analysis Of applications Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers

Battery Users,

OEM

Raw materials suppliers

Environment & recycling

Safety

Substitution technologies:

SuperCap, Fuel cells

3

http://www.batteryjapan.jp/en/Top/

http://www.thebatteryshow.com/index.php


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MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES

WORLDWIDE A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS AROS SECURITIES ARC ASHLAND ATOFINA - ARKEMA AT KEARNEY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY R&D ASSOCIATION OF KOREA B&D BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BUHLER GMBH BYD CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DCN DELTA DGA

DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK (BAYER) HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ITRI ITS

JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP - RUSSIA NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OMG INC PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA ROLAND BERGER SAFT

SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WARBURGPINCUS WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER

4


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AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

REALITY 0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

2008 2009 2010 2011

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2011

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

IIT (March 2010)

AAB

Deutsche Bank

Roland Berger

AVICENNE

IIT (March 2011)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

AVICENNE 2007-2011

5


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OUTLINE

THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET IN 2011/2012

THE HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET IN 2011/2012

2020 FORECASTS

IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS

IMPACT ON THE LED ACID BATTERY BUSINESS

CONCLUSIONS

6


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0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2010

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

7



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0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h


1990-2010


Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

8

Lead acid: Major market


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1990-2010

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

1990 2000 2010

Bill

ion

US

$


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

35 BILLION US$

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2010)

9

-

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

1990 2000 2010

Bill

ion

US$

STORAGE

TRACTION

INDUSTRIAL

PORTABLE

SLI


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EACH BATTERY TECHNOLOGY HAS ITS

SPECIFIC ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGES

10

Lead Acid

Nickel Cadmium NiCd

Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH Conventional Laminate

Lithium-Ion

...On

Advantage of ...

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Operating temperature

range • Self discharge rate • Reliability (progressive

extinction)

• Gravimetric energy density

• Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Price


• Volumetric energy density

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Price

• Operating temperature range

• Higher cyclability • Self discharge rate • Price


range • Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics


range • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics

Lead Acid

Nickel Cadmium NiCd

Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH

• Higher cyclability • Price • Safety • Recyclability


• Higher cyclability • Price • Safety • Recyclability

• Price • Safety • Discharge rate • Recyclability

• Higher cyclability • Price



• Volumetric energy density • Higher cyclability • Price

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density

(potentially) • Design characteristics • Safety • Price


• Higher cyclability

Conventional

Laminate

Lith

ium

-Io

n


• Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Voltage output • Design characteristics



• Price

• Volumetric energy density

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Voltage output

Absolute advantages


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

20

30

Million barrel per day

Price of the WTI barrel

of oil, US $

CO2 density in the

atmosphere increase

11

WHY X-EV ?

Petroleum

consumption

worldwide 1960-2030

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

73

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

Source: Energy Information

Administration, US Government

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Source: IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007, Synthesis Report p38


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12

HEV, P-HEV & EV

DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

EV & HEV MARKET

EV 25 kWh

HEV 0.6-2 kWh batteries

MICRO HEV*

MILD HEV

MEDIUM HEV

FULL HEV

P HEV 5 kWh

batteries

CITROEN C3 TOYOTA VITZ

GM Saturn Vue GM AURA

GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD

HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT

MERCEDES S400

TOYOTA PRIUS

TOYOTA CAMRY

FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION

MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE

NISSAN ALTIMA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $

Fuel saving Vs. Cost

HEV

P-HEV

EV


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HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2011

LESS THAN 0.9M HEV SOLD

HEV sold per year, M units,

worldwide, 2000 - 2011

Penetration of hybrids in the

global sales, 2000-2011

13

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

0,0%

0,2%

0,4%

0,6%

0,8%

1,0%

1,2%

1,4%

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

HEV

wo

rld

wid

e p

en

etr

atio

n (

%)

Mill

ion

TOYOTA OTHERS

USA

JAPAN

EUROPE

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

7,0%

8,0%

9,0%

10,0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Pen

etra

tio

n o

f h

ybri

ds

in t

he

glo

bal

e s

ales


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BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOYOTA

HONDA

FORD

NISSAN GM

MERCEDES

HYUNDAI/KIA Others

Total HEV Vehicles

Less than 0.9 M in 2011

HEV sold per year, M units per

car manufacturers, 2000-2010

14

TOYOTA

HONDA

FORD

HYUNDAI

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

TOYOTA HONDA




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BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA,

HYUNDAI

OTHERS: FORD, MERCEDES,

GM, NISSAN…

15

TOYOTA

HONDA

HYUNDAI

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 ‘ 0

00

HEV

so

ld

TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI

FORD

GM

NISSAN

HYUNDAI

MERCEDES

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

FORD GM NISSAN HYUNDAI MERCEDES PORCHE




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BY COUNTRY

USA 31%

EUROPE 14%

JAPAN 48%

OTHERS 7%

Total HEV Vehicles

Less than 0.9 M in 2011

HEV sold per year, M units per

country, 2004-2011

16

USA

EUROPE

JAPAN

OTHERS

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



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HEV FORECASTS

2011-2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: 2 Million units in 2015 & 4 M Units in 2020

17

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

Mill

ion

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS



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LONG TERM HEV FORECAST

FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020

0,9

2,0

4,0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2011 2015 2020

Mill

ion

AVICENNE (Sept 2012)

AVICENNE (Oct 2009)

AABC (2011)

IIT (March 2011)

Credit Suisse

Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)

Roland Berger (Mini August 2011)

Nomura (March 2009)

18

AVICENNE ENERGY FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC

COMPARE TO OTHER ANALYSTS

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Compilation, February 2012



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LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS

DEVICES: AVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST

19

Li-ion penetration in electronic

devices & HEV

(1)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario

(2)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario

(3)IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar,

(4)AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009

HEV powered by LIB

forecasts from 2008 to 2011

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007

REALITY 0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

2008 2009 2010 2011 M

illio

n H

EV p

ow

ere

d b

y LI

B

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011


Cellular Phones

(to=1994)

Portable PCs (to=1994)

Power Tools (to=2004)

HEV Avicenne (to=2010)

HEV Avicenne 2 (to=2010)

HEV IIT (to=2009)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Li-i

on

pen

etra

tio

n in

ele

ctro

nic

de

vice

s &

HEV


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LIB BUSINESS

RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

20

More & more incidents & accidents

All the battery makers and the OEM are concerned

Recall cost impact drastically the battery business and the profitability

Battery Makers

OEM Battery recall

Date Cost

Matsushita Nokia 46 M cells 08/07 170 MUS$

Sanyo Mitsubishi 1.3 M cells 12/06 35 MUS$

Sony Dell, Apple,

Toshiba, Lenovo,...

10 M Packs

65 M cells 2006 430 MUS$

Sony HP, Toshiba,

Dell 0.44 M 2009

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Op

era

tin

g p

rofi

t/R

eve

nu

e

RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT Sanyo

MBI

BYD

SGS

Sony

NEC

Maxell

LGC

SDI

Average


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TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.

Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launch by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.

LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago)

Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago).

So, it take between 10 & 20 years to commercialized a new material in the battery industry.

21


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22

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE

>50 GWh in 2015

A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems

Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500

PANASONIC NISSAN Motor US

Sony BYD

LG Chem JCI

A123 Sanyo Ener1

Nissan-Renault (Fr) Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)

GS YUASA SB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle Energy Lithium Energy Japan Rusnano-Thunder Sky

LG Chem - Compact … Nissan - Renault (UK)

Toshiba Blue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port) Lishen

BAK SAFT US

SAFT Hitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC Japon NEC Tokin (Electrodes)

Mitsubishi H.I. SK Energy

Panasonic EV LiTec GmbH

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh


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LIB BATTERY COST

Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …)

Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure :

CAPEX,

labor cost,

R&D

Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)

Raw material needs / mAh

Electrode process Yield

Assembly Process Yield

Cell manufacturing cost

Module manufacturing cost

Pack assembly cost

…

Costs analysis Battery price in 2011

$/kWh

23

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

LIB 18650

cell

LIB EV Cell

LIB pack for EV

LIB HEV cell

LIB pack for HEV


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LI-ION BATTERY COST

2011-2020

LIB cell average cost

(EV design ; NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

24

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2011 2015 2020

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode cost

Cathode cost 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Cel

l

Pac

k

Cel

l

Pac

k

Cel

l

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

Cell Manufacturing

Other Materials

Electrolyte

Separator

Anode

Cathode 2015* 2020* 2011*


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EV FORECASTS

2011-2020

EV sold, in million units,

worldwide, 2010 - 2020

EV impact on the LIB & raw

material market is HUGE

25

IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale

IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale

Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009

Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes

AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011

IIT (March 2010)

AAB

Deutsche Bank

Roland Berger

AVICENNE

IIT (March 2011)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

4

50

45

400

1000

10000

25000

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Mobile Phone

Portable PC

Power Tools

E-bikes

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Average Wh per device


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TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

2011-2020

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery

needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020

Total battery demand (MWh)

2000 – 2025

26

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M

Wh

NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV

LIB for EV

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2005 2010 2015 2020

M W

h

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV


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35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

27

Powered by Advanced lead acid batteries

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

Optimistic Scenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

35 3.5


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HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

28

Stand

ard

Lead acid

Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H b

atte

ries

STANDARD CAR

88.5% EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead acid

(+ EDLC

)

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

54%

MICRO HYBRID

40%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion


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TAKEAWAYS

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices

For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH

LIB begin really to compete in 2012

P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 5 B$ market in 2015 & 9 B$ in 2020

EV expectations attract large Chemical companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards

HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020

P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020

Micro-hybrid will achieve 40%

Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2020 in volume & value

Battery Market 2010-2020

CAGR = +8%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2020

29

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 M

$

Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1990 2000 2010 2020 M

Wh

Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB Others


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THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

30

Documents

HEV, P-HEV, and EV market 2011-2020 - AVICENNE P-HEV and EV market 2011-2020... · 2019-03-18 · Christophe PILLOT [email protected] +33(0)1 4778 4600 HEV, P-HEV, and EV market