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HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 – 2020IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS
Information for growth
Christophe PILLOT
4TH International Congress on Automotive Battery Technology
Dorint Pallas Wiesbaden, Germany9th – 11th May 2011
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AVICENNE ENERGY
Creation: 1992
Headquarter: Paris
Liaison Office: Japan, USA
Director: M. Madani
AVICENNE Energy Director : C. Pillot
4 consultants in Paris
Information for GrowthPowering your company’s market strategy with in-depth research
2HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - May 2011
AVICENNE ENERGY
AVICENNE MEDICAL
The Rechargeable Battery market
2010-2020April 2011, 20th Edition
Customized Client
Projects
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METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION
Conferences & Exhibitions
In Depth analysisOf applications
Top management contact network Cross Check Analysis
Battery Makers
Battery Users,
OEM
Raw materials suppliers
Environment & recycling
Safety
Substitution technologies:
SuperCap, Fuel cells
3HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - May 2011
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MORE THAN 100 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE
A123 Air Liquide Air Product Alcatel Amperex (ATL) Aros Securities ARC Atofina - Arkema AT Kearney Axeon Bain Battery R&D Association of
Korea B&D BHP Billiton Brand Licencing Parners (BLP) Bourns Bosch BYD Cap X Catella Carbone Lorraine CDN Cobalt CEA/LITEN Celgard Chemetall CIAPS CIBA CNRS Cogema CRU Group CSC Challenge Strategy Change DELTA DGA
Dialog Semiconductor Dow Chemical Dupont Duracell EDF Electro Energy Ener 1 Energizer ETC AB Facom Falcon Bridge Fairshild semiconductor Fameart FIST Floridienne de Chimie FMC Lithium Fortu Power Cell France Telecom Fulton Innovation GAIA GIL Import Batteries Ltd. GS Melcotec HC Starck (Bayer) HILTI Hitachi Maxell Hollingsworth & Vose Cie Honeywell HPL (High Power Lithium) Hutchinson IER IGL Export. International Component Inco Intersil
ITRI ITS Johnson Controls JBC Kodak Kruger Lazard Leclanché Legrand LG Chemical Lion cells Little Fuse Lilipucian Lynas Corp Matsushita Microsoft MTI Micro Fuel Cells Mindbranch Moltech Molycorp Motorola NCCP - Russia Nitech NKKPC – Brett Nelson Norilsk Nickel NTK Powerdex OMG Inc Panasonic Philips PK & Wise PRAYON PSA Rayovac Renault
Rhodia Saft Samsung SDI Sanik Schroder Venture Scotent Entreprise Shenzhen High Power
Technology Schott AG SKC SVE - Dassault Solvay Sony Stibat Storck Toda Kogyo TOTAL Total Wireless Solution Toyota Tyco Umicore Uniross Varta Warburgpincus World Industrial Information
Center WR Grace & Cie Zebra ZPower
4HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - May 2011
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OUTLINE
1. THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET IN 2010
2. ELECTRIC VEHICLE SEGMENTATION
3. HEV MARKET BY COMPETITOR AND BY AREA
4. FORECASTS BY 2020
5. IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 5
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[email protected], P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 6
MAIN QUESTIONS
Impact of the financial & economic crisis on the HEV market & the PHEV or EV developments?
Will the HEV penetration continue ? Where is the limit?
Car suppliers strategy for HEV, PHEV & EV? Do they believe in those markets?
What are the main market drivers & limiters?
When will Li-ion appeared massively in HEV? NiMH Vs. Li-ion for HEV?
Which Li-ion batteries for the future HEV, PHEV & EV?
Cobalt, Lithium, Nickel or Phosphate future needs?
Market for EV, PHEV & HEV batteries in 2015 & 2020 ?
Who will be the main battery suppliers?
Will high level investment result in a significant overcapacity in the future?
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WHY HEV?
Source :Energy Information Administration, US Government
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
US
$ /
bar
rel
Price of the WTI barrel of oil, US $
Source :http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html(1) Estimations
CO2 density in the atmosphere increase
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007,
Synthesis Report p38
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mill
ion
bar
rels
per
day
Petroleum consumption worldwide 1960-2009
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HEV, P-HEV & EVDEFINITION & SEGMENTATION
> 144 v
… - 14 v
14 – 42 v
42 – 144 v
MICRO MILD MEDIUM FULL
HYBRID LEVELS:
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $
Fuel saving Vs. Cost
HEV
P-HEV
EV
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 8
*Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
EV & HEV MARKET
EV25 kWh
HEV0.6-2 kWh batteries
MICROHEV*
MILD HEV
MEDIUMHEV
FULL HEV
P HEV5 kWh
batteries
CITROEN C3TOYOTA VITZ
GM Saturn VueGM AURA
GM MALIBUHONDA ACCORD
HONDA CIVICINSIGHT
MERCEDES S400
TOYOTA PRIUSTOYOTA CAMRY
FORD ESCAPEFORD FUSION
MILANGM YUKONGM TAHOE
NISSAN ALTIMA
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THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET IN 2010VALUE IN M$
Battery for Automotive market in 2010: 11% of the battery market in value
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 9
(1) Pack level
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
M U
S$
Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 1995-2010
NiCd NiMH Li-ion
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
M U
S$
Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, by application 2000-2010
HEV
Others
Power tools
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
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THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET IN 2009VOLUME IN MWH
Battery for Automotive market in 2010: <5% of the battery market in Volume
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 10
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
MW
h
The worldwide rechargeable battery market, MWh, 1995-2010
Ni-Cd Ni-MH Li-Ion
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
MW
h
The worldwide rechargeable battery market, MWh, 1995-2010
Automotive
Others
Power Tools
Portable PCs
Celllular Phones
Information for growth
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NIMH IN 2010MAIN APPLICATION: HEV
Cordless Phones
9%
Retail: RC cars,Toys,
Household, DSC, 18%
HEV65%
Others8%
NiMH battery by applications, worldwide, % in value, 2010
1 200 M NiMH cells – 3 500 MWh1.65 B$
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
% o
f H
EV b
atte
ry in
NIM
H r
even
ues
M$
NiMH battery market worldwide in value% for HEV application
Others HEV % of HEV in NiMH sales
CAGR 2005/2010+14% per year in Volume
+10% per year in value
11HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
11
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HEV MARKET
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
1,4%
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
Mill
ion
HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide,2000 - 2010
TOYOTA OTHERS %
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 12
1,3% of vehicle sold worldwide in 2010 was Hybrid
USA
JAPAN
EUROPE0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Pen
etra
tio
n o
f h
ybri
ds
in t
he
glo
bal
e s
ales
Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2000-2010
Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
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HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2010
TOYOTA
78%
HONDA
16%
FORD
4%
NISSAN
1%
GM
1%
MERCEDES
0,3%
Total HEV Vehicles: 900 000 units in 2010
SOURCE : TOYOTA, HONDA, GM, FORD, CHRYSLER
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 13
HONDA
FORD
GM
NISSAN0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
‘ 00
0 H
EV s
old
HEV sold per year, M units per car manufacturers, 2000-2010
HONDA FORD GM NISSAN
TOYOTA
HONDA
FORD
GM0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
‘ 00
0 H
EV s
old
HEV sold per year, M units per car manufacturers, 2000-2010
TOYOTA HONDA FORD GM NISSAN
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
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HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2010
14
USA
JAPAN
EUROPE
OTHERS0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
0,45
0,50
Mill
ion
HEV sold per year, M units per country,2000-2010
USA JAPAN EUROPE OTHERS
USA30%
JAPAN55%
EUROPE11%
OTHERS4%
Total HEV Vehicles: 900 000 units in 2010
Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
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Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV FORECASTS UP TO 2015
HEV MARKET IN 2015 : 2,2 Million units (1)
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 15
(2) HEV & hybrid excluding micro hybrids
(1) Assumptions:- >75 M vehicle sold WW in 2015- 3% Hybrids
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Pe
ne
trat
ion
of
hyb
rid
s in
th
e g
lob
ale
sal
es
Penetration of hybrids (2) in the global sales, 2000-2015
USA
JAPAN
EUROPE
AVERAGE WW
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015H
hyb
rid
sso
ld W
orl
dw
ide
‘ 00
0 u
nit
s
Penetration of hybrids (2) in the global sales, 2000-2015
USA
JAPAN
EUROPE
RoW
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
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NIMH BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ca
pa
cit
y (m
Ah
) fo
r N
iMH
ce
ll -
Ind
ex
10
0 in
19
96
NiMH Capacity is increasing Exemple of AA NiMH
(index 100 in 1996)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
NiM
H C
ost
pe
r k
Wh
-In
de
x 1
00
in
19
96
NiMH cost per kWh is decreasing(index 100 in 1996)
PRIUS II PRIUS III
Capacity 6.5 Ah 6.5 Ah
Cells 228 (38 * 6) 168 (28 * 6)
Voltage 273.6 v 201.6 v
Specific power 1000 W/kg 1300 W/kg
Specific energy 46 Wh/kg 46 Wh/kg
Total power/HEV 36 kW 37.8 kW
Total energy/HEV 1778 Wh 1310 Wh
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 16
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
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NIMH BATTERIES FOR HEV IN 2009/2010
PEVE
75,5%
PANASO
NIC
4,7%
SANYO
19,7%
COBASYS
0,2%
PEVE SANYO Panasonic COBASYS JCS
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N
TOYOTA n
LEXUS n
HONDA n n
FORD n
NISSAN n
GM n n
BMW n
DAIMLER n
CHRYSLER n
DEV
ELO
PM
ENT VW o
DAIMLER o
BMW o
PSA o
CHERY o
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 17
Thanks to TOYOTA, Panasonic EV, got more than 75% of the HEV battery market and a large know-how
0 20 40 60 80 100
PEVE
Panasonic
SANYO
COBASYS
Million NiMH cells
NiMH battery & Car makers relationshipsin 2009/2010
TOYOTA
HONDA
FORD
NISSAN
GM
n Supply -o Development SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
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LI-ION BATTERIES DEVELOPMENTS FOR HEV, P-HEV & EV
Li-ion is THE solution for the future
BUT, SAFETY, LIFE TIME & COST issues
Lot of technical solutions (NMC, NCA, LFP, LCO...)
Lot of EXPENSIVE Developments…
So,
Lot of JV, partnerships etc...
PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion
Volts 201.6 201.6
Cells 168 (28*6) 56
Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah
Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh
Weight 38 kg 25 kg
T°C Range + +
Cyclability + ++
Safety
Cost
18
TOYOTA NISSAN HONDA FORD MITSUBISHI DAIMLER BYD AUTO BOSCH CONTINENTAL JC
PANASONIC PEVE
NEC AESC
GSY JV (HEV) LEJ (EV)
SDI SB LiMotive
SAFT JV
BYD JV in China HEV, EV
ENAX Partner
MAGNA Partner
JOINT VENTURE & STRONG PARTNERSHIP
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011
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LI-ION BATTERIES DEVELOPMENTS
19
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Li-ion
TOYO
TA
NIS
SAN
HO
ND
A
HY
UN
DA
I
MIT
SUB
ISH
I
BYD
Aut
o
SUB
AR
U
MA
ZDA
SUZU
KI
SAIC
GM
FOR
D
CH
RYS
LER
TESL
A
BA
E
FISK
ER
KOD
A (
Mile
s
Elec
tric
)
DA
IMLE
R
VW
AU
DI
BM
W
PSA
REN
AU
LT
FIA
T
VO
LVO
THIN
K
TATA
PIN
INFA
RIN
A
MA
GN
A
CO
NTI
NEN
TAL
DEL
PHI
TATA
C & P
?
C & P
C & P
Pack
C & P
C
JC-SAFT
C Pack
ContinentalC
P
Cell
Yuasa
LiTec - Evonik EV ? ?
C & P C
C
C
?
? Megac
?
ENAX - CONTINENTAL
MAGNA P Pack
GAIA
GSY Cells
TOSHIBA Test C ?
HITACHI
BATSCAP (BOLLORE-EDF) HEV
EV
TESLA C Smart
CONTINENTALP Mercedes
S400
ALP/E-One Cells mini
Enerdel (Delphi 19,5%) ?
RENAULT/AESC/CEA
Panasonic/Tesla ?
Sony Cells ?
Lishen
HITACHI MAXELL
MAXELL
EIG C & P
LEJ (GSY-Mitsubishi)
BEJ -Blue Energy Japan
GSY - HONDA
PEVE
A123 JVc & p
c & p?
LG? ?
?SB LiMotive (SDI-BOSCH)
?cells ?
SK Energy ?
?
BYDChina JV
C
Sanyo
ASIA USA EUROPE & AUTRES
P
CC
Cells
C
Smart
TIERS 1
AESC (Nec-Nissan)
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011
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LI-ION BATTERY COST
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 20
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
$/k
Wh
LI-ION BATTERY COSTCELLS / PACK
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
$ /
kW
h
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EVAVICENNE FORECASTS
BMS
Pack production
Production cellule
Autres Matériaux
Cathode
2015* 2020**
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year** USBAC Goal in 2020
Source : AVICENNE Compilation, March 2011
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LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS DEVICESAVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST
Cellular Phones(to = 1994) Portable PCs
(to = 1994)
Power Tools(to = 2004)
AVICENNE (1)
to=2010
AVICENNE(2)
to=2010
IIT(3)
(to=2009)
AAB(4)
(to=2009)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Li-i
on
pen
etra
tio
n in
ele
ctro
nic
dev
ices
& H
EV
YEARS
(1) AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario(2) AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario(3) IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar, Slide 5(4) AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 21
SOURCE: AVICENNE COMPILATION, MARCH 2011
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LONG TERM HEV FORECASTFROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020
22
AVICENNE Oct 2009
Deutsche Bank (June 2008)
Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)
Credit Suisse
AABC (March 2010)
Nomura (March 2009)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
s
HEV FORECASTS (Million)
AVICENNE (Oct 2009)
Deutsche Bank (June 2008)
Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)
IIT (March 2010)
Credit Suisse
AABC (March 2010)
Nomura (March 2009)
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011
SOURCE: AVICENNE COMPILATION, MARCH 2011
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LONG TERMHEV BATTERY FORECASTS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Nu
mb
er o
f H
EV s
old
wo
rld
wid
e (M
illio
n)
HEV market, million units, worldwide, 2005-2020
HEV (million)
% of Li-ion - Relevant Scenario
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
% o
f Li
-io
n b
atte
ry in
HEV
M$
HEV battery market worldwide, million $2000-2020
NiMH
Li-ion
Penetration of Li-ion in IHV (%)
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011 23
Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
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HEV, P-HEV & EV LONG TERM FORECASTSEV ENERGY NEED: 25 MORE THAN HEV!
24
4
50
45
400
1000
10000
25000
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000
Mobile Phone
Portable PC
Piower Tools
E-bikes
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Average Wh per device
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
AVICENNE CONSERVATIVE
IIT (March 2010)
Deutsche Bank
Roland Berger
AVICENNE REALISTIC
IIT (March 2011)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
EV(1) sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020
Information for growth
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LONG TERMEV, PHEV & HEV BATTERY FORECASTS
25
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
M U
S$
AUTOMOTIVE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET M US$, Worldwide, 2005-2020
(Pack level)
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
M W
h
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 - 2020
EV25 kWh
P-HEV 10 kWh
HEV1 kWh
Assumptions2,2 M HEV in 20153,5 M in 202035% Li-ion in 2020
0.1 M P-HEV in 20150.4 M in 2020100% Li-ion
100 000 EV in 2015400 000 in 2020100% Li-ion
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
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TOTAL LIB DEMAND
26
Assumptions2,2 M HEV in 20153,5 M in 202035% Li-ion in 2020
0.1 M P-HEV in 20150.4 M in 2020100% Li-ion
200 000 EV in 20151M in 2020100% Li-ion
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
M W
h
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020 (Scenario 2)
EV25 kWh
P-HEV 10 kWh
HEV1 kWh
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
M W
h
Total battery demand (M Wh) 2005 – 2020
EV25 kWh
P-HEV 10 kWh
HEV1 kWh
Li-ion except Auto
NiMH except Auto
NiCd
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
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LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENT 2009-201510-12 B$ WORLDWIDE / >50 GWH IN 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
27HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
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ANNONCED INVESTMENT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT OVERCAPACITY
28
Assumptions2,2 M HEV in 20153,5 M in 202035% Li-ion in 2020
0.1 M P-HEV in 20150.4 M in 2020100% Li-ion
200 000 EV in 20151M in 2020100% Li-ion
HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - MAY 2011
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10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
M W
h
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020 (Scenario 2)
EV25 kWh
P-HEV 10 kWh
HEV1 kWh
Production capacity
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
TAKEAWAYS
The Hybrid vehicle is the only mass market choice for electric traction cars today
Toyota opened this market and earn money with HEV models
The hybrid vehicles is now a niche market: in 2015 we believe more than 2,1 million Hybrid cars will be sold worldwide
The battery technology is today the NiMH, we don’t expect the Li-ion to be significant on the HEV mass market
P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion
1 M EV represent roughly 20 000 MWh, or 40 000 tones of cathode materials!
HEV, P-HEV & EV will change the gasoline dogma in the car Industry. In the next decade, we are expecting one of the world most important disruption in the car industry
Then, EV could change totally the battery market on a long term basis.
29HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - May 2011
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005 2010 2015 2020
M U
S$
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET M US$, Worldwide, 2005-2020 - PACK LEVEL (S2)
NiCd NiMH Li-ion NiMH for HEV Li-ion for HEV, PHEV, EV
SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011
Information for growth
Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00
CONTACT
Christophe Pillot
Phone + 33 -1 - 47 78 46 00Fax + 33 - 1 - 47 78 46 01
[email protected] our Web Site : www.avicenne.com
30HEV, P-HEV & EV MARKET 2010 - 2020 ; IMPACT ON THE BATTERY BUSINESS - May 2011
