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High School Graduate TrendsWICHE’s Knocking at the College Door Projections of High School Graduates, 9th Ed.Peace Bransberger / knocking.wiche.edu

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Fewer Grads in Total; More non-White Grads

Projected number compared to 2012‐13, last confirmed year.

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Fewer Grads in Total; More Non-White Grads

285466 440199 449654

918791

1.6M1.9M 1.8M 1.7M

1.6M

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031

3.44M 3.46M 3.59M

1992 2007 2025 20322013

Total

White

HispanicBlackPrivate schoolsAsian/Pacific Isl.American Indian

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Regional Variation

2000‐2013

2013‐2025

South 2.6% 0.6%West 2.1% 0.2%Midwest 0.8% ‐0.4%Northeast 1.6% ‐0.5%

Avg. Annual Change

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Growth or Decline

Fewer graduates About the same More graduates

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Growth Regions

• Additional grads from Texas and Florida account for ~80% of all additional U.S. grads by 2025

• California may have seen its high year, or very near so

• Whether growing or contracting, state trends largely driven by Hispanic grad trends

– In California, 60k more Hispanic grads by 2025, then almost that many fewer by 2030s

West

South

(Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)

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Regions in Decline

• 24 of the U.S. states do not have a new high projected

– 14 states have a small new increase between 2013 & 2025, but it doesn't exceed their prior high

– 10 states are in perpetual decline

• 16 of the states with little increase or none at all are in the Midwest and Northeast

Midwest

(Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)

Northeast

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2030Nation: -4.0%

2025Nation: +4.7%

2020Nation: -0.1%

Compared to 2013by State

See Knocking pages 20‐23 for Top 10 States & state annual change.

Total Graduates, 2013 to 2020Midwest Northeast South West

Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2020. Fewer  About the same More

Total Graduates, 2013 to 2025

Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2025. Fewer  About the same More

Midwest Northeast South West

Total Graduates, 2013 to 2032

Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2032. Fewer  About the same More

Midwest Northeast South West

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Racial/Ethnic Diversity

White Hispanic Black Asian American Indian

Private schools

Fewer White graduates bring down the total,

but there are additional graduates in virtually

every state.

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Increase for Most States in the South

Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind.

Private

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Growth in Western States Mitigated by Slowdown from California

Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind.

Private

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The Midwest: Strong Minority Graduate IncreasesBut Steep Downturn of White Graduates

Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind.

Private

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Decreases for All Northeast States Except New York

Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Ind.

Private

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Dampening Effect of Lower Male & Minority High School Graduation Rates

Male & Female Graduate Projections, forthcoming September 2017

And a few other data points…

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First Generation Students

Children Ages 5 to 17 in 2015

Race/Ethnicity

Total Millions

Parent with Assoc. or Higher

White 26.9 61%

Hispanic 12.1 25%

Asian 2.4 70%

Black 6.7 35%

Source: NCES 2015 Digest of Education Statistics, Table 104.70, from American Community Survey (ACS) data.

Families with Children Ages 0 to 8 in 2012

Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from 2012 ACS PUMS file.

Income TotalMillions

Parent with Assoc. or Higher

All Families 11.9 47%

< 200% Fed. Poverty Level

7.9 21%

>= FPL 4.0 68%

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Income Distribution of Households With Children,

U.S., 2010-2014

Students from Lesser Means

Medians HHs with children-- All Households

Distribution (95% of families)Each bar segment is 20% of the families

American Community Survey PUMS Five-Year Estimates

$65K$79K $91K

$37K $42K

$0K

$50K

$100K

$150K

$200K

$250K

$300K

$350K

All Races

White20M

Asian1.8M

Black4.3M

Hispanic6.6M

State data on State Profiles

426K more graduates from families with lower than 

average income

138K more from families with higher than 

average income

37K fewer from families below average income

100K fewer from families above average income

Change in Graduates by 2025& Median Family Income 2014

Diffe

rence in HSG

s from 201

4 to 202

4

Median Income by State & Race, Households with Children, 2014

Amer. Ind.  Asian/Pac.Is.  Black HispanicWhite