Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

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WMO/WWRP Workshop Use of NWP for Nowcasting 25 October 2011 Evaluation of the 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) as Nowcast Guidance NOAA /ESRL/ GSD Curtis Alexander, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, David Dowell, Eric James, Patrick Hofmann, Tanya Smirnova , Ming Hu, and John Brown. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

11th WRF Users Workshop 24 June 2010 The real-time Rapid Refresh (RR) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast systems: Recent enhancements and evaluation activities NOAA/ESRL/GSD Curtis Alexander, Steve Weygandt, Tanya Smirnova, Stan Benjamin, John Brown, Ming Hu, Joe Olson, Doug Koch, Kevin Brundage, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison, Patrick Hofmann, and Eric James

WMO/WWRP WorkshopUse of NWP for Nowcasting25 October 2011

Evaluation of the 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) as Nowcast Guidance

NOAA/ESRL/GSDCurtis Alexander, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, David Dowell, Eric James, Patrick Hofmann, Tanya Smirnova, Ming Hu, and John Brown

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Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models13km Rapid Refresh (mesoscale)13km RUC (mesoscale)3km HRRR (storm-scale)RUC current oper Model, new 18h fcst every hour

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Experimental 3km nest inside RR, new 15-h fcst every hour Rapid Refresh (RR) replaces RUC at NCEP in 2011 WRF, GSI with RUC featuresSpring 2011 Hourly HRRR Initialization from RRHourlyRRLateralBoundaryConditionsInterp to 3 km gridHourlyHRRR15-h fcstInitial ConditionFields11 z 12 z 13 zTime (UTC)AnalysisFields3DVARObs3DVARObsBack-groundFields18-h fcst18-h fcst1-hrfcstDDFIDDFI1-hrfcst18-h fcst1-hrfcstInterp to 3 km grid15-h fcstUse 1-h old LBC to reducelatencyUse most recent IC (post-DFI)to get latest radar infoReduced Latency:~2h for 20113NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB ModelsModelVersionAssimilationRadar DFIRadiationMicrophysicsCum ParamPBLLSMRUCN/ARUC-3DVARYesRRTM/DudhiaThompsonGrell-DevenyiBurk-ThompsonRUCRRWRF-ARW v3.2+GSI-3DVARYesRRTM/GoddardThompsonG3 + ShallowMYJRUCHRRRWRF-ARWv3.2+None: RR I.C.NoRRTM/GoddardThompsonNoneMYJRUCModelRun at:DomainGrid PointsGrid SpacingVertical LevelsVertical CoordinateBoundary ConditionsInitializedRUCGSD, NCOCONUS451 x 33713 km50Sigma/ IsentropicNAMHourly (cycled)RRGSD,EMCNorth America758 x 56713 km50SigmaGFSHourly (cycled)HRRRGSDCONUS1799 x 10593 km50SigmaRRHourly (no-cycle)NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB ModelsModelVersionAssimilationRadar DFIRadiationMicrophysicsCum ParamPBLLSMRUCN/ARUC-3DVARYesRRTM/DudhiaThompsonGrell-DevenyiBurk-ThompsonRUCRRWRF-ARW v3.2+GSI-3DVARYesRRTM/GoddardThompsonG3 + ShallowMYJRUCHRRRWRF-ARWv3.2+YesMultiple Radar DA ExperimentsRRTM/GoddardThompsonNoneMYJRUCModelRun at:DomainGrid PointsGrid SpacingVertical LevelsVertical CoordinateBoundary ConditionsInitializedRUCGSD, NCOCONUS451 x 33713 km50Sigma/ IsentropicNAMHourly (cycled)RRGSD,EMCNorth America758 x 56713 km50SigmaGFSHourly (cycled)HRRRGSDCONUS1799 x 10593 km50SigmaRRHourly (no-cycle)HRRR MilestonesInception over northeastern USSept 2007Integration into CoSPA: Aviation UsersSpring 2008Domain expansion to eastern USMar 2009HCPF time-lagged ensemble inceptionMay 2009HRRR WRF-ARW updated to v3.1.1Oct 2009Domain expansion to CONUSOct 2009HRRR WRF-ARW updated to v3.2Apr 2010Forecast period extended to 15 hrsApr 2010Real-time multi-scale reflect. verificationJune 2010Parallel (shadow) retrospective systemSept 2010Attained ~95% reliabilityJun 2010Reduced latency to ~2 hrsDec 2010

HRRR (and RR) Future MilestonesConversion of all output to GRIB2 formatApr 2011Transition from RUC to RR parent modelApr 2011DOE-funded HRRR FTP site for energy industryMay 2011Update to WRF-ARW v3.3.1Nov 2011Rapid Refresh operational at NCEPDec 2011Reflectivity data assimilation at 3 km scale2012Incorporate SatCast products at 3 km scale2012Assimilate Radial Velocity at 3 km scale2012HRRR demo @ESRL improves2012-2014Ensemble Rapid Refresh (NARRE) at NCEP2014HRRR operational at NCEP2015?Ensemble HRRR (HRRRE) at NCEP2016?Some HRRR users and applicationsAviation Weather Center (AWC): 2-D gridsFederal Aviation Administration (FAA) Command CenterNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR): 2-D, 3-D, 15-min gridsOperational evaluation in CoSPAStorm Prediction Center (SPC): 2-D gridsOperational severe weather forecasting and evaluationNational Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL): 2-D, 3-D and 15-min gridsMesoscale analysis, Short-term precipitation forecastsNational Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP): 15-min gridsReal Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)Bonneville Power Administration (BPA): 3-D gridsReal-time forecasts of turbine-level wind and solar irradianceColorado State University (CSU/CIRA): 2-D gridsVerification of solar irradiance forecasts at SURFRAD sitesNumerous private sector companiesAir Resources Laboratory (ARL): Tiled 3-D HRRR gridsDispersion forecasts, Local wind forecasts in complex terrainNational Weather Service (NWS): 2-D and 3-D gridsOperational weather forecastingUnited States Air Force (USAF): 2-D gridsOperational weather forecasting

Severe WeatherAviationRenewable EnergyForecastingModel ConfigurationsHRRRPrimaryCoSPANCEPESRL/GSDRRDevRUCDevRUCBackupRRPrimaryHRRRDevRUCOperRREMCRRDev2Blending Radar Nowcasts and HRRR Forecasts for AviationCoSPA: Collaborative effort: ESRL/GSD, NCAR/RAL, MIT/LL

Provide 0-8 hr thunderstorm intensity and echo top guidance to aviation communityHRRR 15 UTC 08 July 20116 hr forecast valid 21 UTCVILEcho TopCoSPA 17 UTC 08 July 20114 hr forecast valid 21 UTCObservationValid 21 UTC 08 July 2011Blend with CIWS10Blending Radar Nowcasts and HRRR Forecasts for AviationCoSPA: Collaborative effort: ESRL/GSD, NCAR/RAL, MIT/LL

Provide 0-8 hr thunderstorm intensity and echo top guidance to aviation communityHRRR 15 UTC 08 July 20116 hr forecast valid 21 UTCVILEcho TopCoSPA 17 UTC 08 July 20114 hr forecast valid 21 UTCVerificationValid 21 UTC 08 July 2011Blend with CIWS

CSI 0.20Bias 1.30

Eastern US30 dBZ threshold40 km grid

11Verification of RUC/RR (parent) vs HRRRCold Season (1 Jan 2011 14 April 2011)RUC vs HRRRLeadTimeCloudsPrecip (13 km)Reflectivity(40 km)Upper-AirSurfaceCeiling < 500 ftVis < 0.5 mile> 0.1 inch> 1.0 inch25 dBZ35 dBZTempRHWindTempDewptWind1-hrHRRRHRRRN/AN/AEqualHRRRHRRREqualHRRRHRRRRUCHRRR3-hrHRRRHRRREqualHRRRHRRRRUCEqualN/AN/AN/A6-hrHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRRUCEqualHRRRRUCHRRRWarm Season (15 April 2011 25 October 2011)RR vs HRRRLeadTimeCloudsPrecip (13 km)Reflectivity(40 km)Upper-AirSurfaceCeiling < 500 ftVis < 0.5 mile> 0.1 inch> 1.0 inch25 dBZ35 dBZTempRHWindTempDewptWind1-hrHRRRRRHRRREqualHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRRRRRHRRR3-hrHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRRREqualRREqual6-hrHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRRRHRRREqualEqual

HRRR Verification < 500 ft ceiling, 6-hr forecastsTSS (3 day averages)HRRR consistently beats the RUC(cold season)HRRRRUCHRRR-RUCHRRRRRHRRR-RRHRRR consistently beats the RR(warm season)HRRRbetterRUC/RRbetter13

HRRR Verification < 0.5 mi visibility, 6-hr forecastsTSS (7 day averages)HRRR consistently beats the RUC(cold season)HRRRRUCHRRR-RUCHRRRRRHRRR-RRHRRR consistently beats the RR(warm season)HRRR betterRUC/RRbetter14

HRRR Verification 10 m wind, 6-hr forecastsRMS (3 day averages)HRRR consistently beats the RUC(cold season)HRRRRUCHRRR-RUCHRRRRRHRRR-RRHRRR nearly equal to RR(warm season)RUC/RR betterHRRR better15

HRRR VerificationUpper-Air Wind, 6-hr forecastsRMSHRRR and RUC nearly equal(cold season)HRRRRUCHRRR-RUCHRRRRRHRRR-RRRR consistently beats the HRRR(warm season)HRRR better RUC betterHRRR better RR better16

HRRR VerificationPrecipitation, 24-hr (2x12) forecasts15 April 25 October 2011HRRRRRRUCHRRR consistently beats the RR/RUC(warm season) | | | | | | | |0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 3.00 inThresholdCSI13 kmBIAS13 kmOptimalThreshold | | | | | | | |0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 3.00 in17

HRRR VerificationReflectivity, All Forecasts25 dBZ CSI40 kmHRRR consistently beats the RUCAt 4+ hrs (cold season)HRRRRUCHRRR-RUCHRRRRRHRRR-RRHRRR consistently beats the RR(warm season)HRRR betterRUC/RRbetter18

HRRR VerificationReflectivity, All Forecasts35 dBZ CSIHRRR consistently beats the RUC(cold season)HRRRRUCHRRR-RUCHRRRRRHRRR-RRHRRR consistently beats the RR(warm season)HRRRbetterRUC/RRbetter19

HRRR wintertime forecast applicationsIFRLIFRMVFRExcellent skill for low ceiling / visibility|--------VFR-------------

HRRR wintertime forecast applicationsIFRLIFRMVFRExcellent skill for low ceiling / visibility|--------VFR-------------LIFRLIFRIFRIFRVFRVFRMVFRMVFR

Very good skill for small-scale details in strongly forced convection andprecipitationHRRR wintertime forecast applicationsNSSL reflectivity08z Jan. 17, 2010HRRR 8h fcst.

Surface obs08z Jan. 17, 2010HRRR wintertime forecast applicationsGood skill for small-scale terrain-related details60 F60 F

HRRR Reflectivity VerificationEastern US, Reflectivity > 25 dBZ11-20 August 2011 Reflectivity DA in RR/RUC increases HRRR forecast skillHRRR bias depends strongly on parent modelCSI 40 kmRUC->HRRR RadarRR->HRRR Radar

RR->HRRR No RadarRUC->HRRR No Radar

RR->HRRR RadarRR->HRRR No RadarRUC->HRRR RadarRUC->HRRR No RadarBIAS 03 kmOptimal

00 hr HRRR forecastsRR No radar dataRR Radar data

Obs00z 12 August 201125

01 hr HRRR forecastsObs

ObsRR No radar dataRR Radar data01z 12 August 201126

RR No radar dataRR Radar dataReflectivity00z 12 August 201100 hr forecastsConvergence Cross-Section

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RR No radar dataRR Radar dataConvergence Cross-Section

Reflectivity01z 12 August 201101 hr forecasts

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80-kmvalid (GMT)valid (EDT)00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p neighborhood verification of 6-hforecasts from 3-km HRRR verification:10 June 26 Sept 201040-km20-km25 dBZ6-h fcst3-kmMany caseAll init times29Explain titleUncertainty - forecasting forecast errorReducing error reduces uncertaintyVa