8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

1/22

RealEstateAdvisoryCommittee

,

RECESSIONAND RECOVERY

PatrickJankowski

VicePresident,

Research

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

2/22

Si ns of Recover

Turnedup

Q3

09

n us r a pro uc on

Steadyincrease

since

Oct

09

Exportsofgoodsandservices

GrowingsinceQ309

Initialjobless

claims

Trendin downsinceFeb10

GREATERHOUSTONPARTNERSHIP

Houston.org

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

3/22

Recession vs. Recover

1.7million

private

sector

jobs

lost

GREATERHOUSTONPARTNERSHIP

Houston.org

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

4/22

Recession vs. Recover

1.7million

private

sector

jobs

lost

April May10

495,000privatesectorjobsgained

GREATERHOUSTONPARTNERSHIP

Houston.org

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

5/22

DepthofRecession

etro

ompar sons

MetroRecession

JobsLost(Seasonally Adjusted)

1 D.C. 22 92,100 3.1%2 Houston 17 115,900 4.4%

3 Boston 25 123,800 4.9%

, .

5 NewYork 20 453,200 5.2%

6 Philadelphia 22 159,600 5.6%

7 St

Louis 24 81,600 6.0%8 Baltimore 24 80,600 6.1%

9 Minneapolis 22 121,500 6.8%

10 Seattle 22 134,000 7.6%

11 Chicago 23 359,.900 7.9%

12 SanDiego 29 106,800 8.1%

an a , .14 SanFrancisco 26 181,700 8.9%

15 LosAngeles 29 541,300 9.6%

16 Miami 28 253,300 10.5%

17 Tam a 39 138 700 11.0%

18 Phoenix 28 235,100 12.2%

19 Riverside 29 173,000 13.5%

20 Detroit 119 517,600 23.4%

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

6/22

Houstons recover

GREATERHOUSTON

PARTNERSHIP

Houston.org

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

7/22

Houston Purchasin Mana ers Index

70

60

65

Apr`1058.1

50

55

eutral=50

40

45N

`

30

35

1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10

39.0

GREATERHOUSTON

PARTNERSHIP

Houston.org

Source: National Association of Purchasing Management - Houston, Inc.

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

8/22

N rth Am rican Ri C nt

2,300

1,900

2,100

1,300

1,500

1,700 May`10

1,507

900

1,100

500

700

+ Jan01 Jan02 Jan03 Jan04 Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10

June 09

895

GREATERHOUSTON

PARTNERSHIP

Houston.org

Source: Baker Hughes

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

9/22

HA Pa n r 12month total millions

54

52

May`10

48

August`09

.

44

.

40

42

1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10

GREATERHOUSTON

PARTNERSHIP

Houston.org

Source: Houston Airport System

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

10/22

in lFamil H m al 12month total

75,000

65,000

70,000

55,000

60,000May`10

55,491

50,000August`09

51,667

40,000

45,000

1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11

GREATERHOUSTON

PARTNERSHIP

Houston.org

Source: Houston Association of Realtors

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

11/22

M t r V hicl al 12month total thousands

330

280

230

May `10

228,758

180

Jan00 Jan01 Jan02 Jan03 Jan04 Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11

Decem er 09

218,700

GREATERHOUSTON

PARTNERSHIP

Houston.org

Source: InfoNation, Inc.

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

12/22

Pa r ll Em l m nt millions

2700

2600 Apr`10

2.507M

2400

Jan`10

2.479M

2300

2100

Jan00 Jan01 Jan02 Jan03 Jan04 Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 1/11

GREATERHOUSTON

PARTNERSHIP

Houston.org

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

13/22

MetroComparisons Strength

o

ecovery

MetroRecovery JobsGained(SeasonallyAdjusted)

Num er %

1 D.C.2 Baltimore 2 26,500 32.9%

3 NewYork 4 67,200 14.8%

, .

5 Seattle 4 17,100 12.8%

6 Boston 2 14,900 12.0%

7 Philadelphia 2 17,200 10.8%8 Houston 3 10,900 9.4%

9 SanDiego 4 8,500 8.0%

10 Phoenix 4 18,100 7.7%

11 Atlanta 2 16,200 7.7%

12 Minneapolis 4 9,100 7.5%

ou s , .

14 LosAngeles 4 35,100 6.5%

15 Chicago 4 14,200 3.9%

16 Miami 4 9,300 3.7%

17 Riverside 4 4 500 2.6%

18 Tampa 4 1,900 1.4%

19 Detroit 1 3,600 0.7%

20 SanFrancisco

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

14/22

An th r L k at th J Data

PeakJobs 2,619,200 Aug'08

Trough 2,503,300 Jan'10Current 2,514,200 Apr'10JobsLost 115,900

%Lost 4.4%

RecoveryToDate 10,900Jobs

3monthavg 3,600jobs

2monthavg 10,300jobs

ReturntoPeak 11months

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

15/22

An th r L k at th J Data

PeakJobs 2,619,200 Aug'08 2,632,300 Dec '08

Trough 2,503,300 Jan'10 2,479,500 Jan'10Current 2,514,200 Apr'10 2,507,900 Apr'10JobsLost 115,900 152,800

%Lost 4.4% 5.8%

RecoveryToDate 10,900Jobs 28,400Jobs

3monthavg 3,600 jobs 9,500jobs

2monthavg 10,300 jobs 16,000jobs

ReturntoPeak 11months 10months

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

16/22

An th r L k at th J Data

PeakJobs 2,619,200 Aug'08 2,632,300 Dec '08

Trough 2,503,300 Jan'10 2,479,500 Jan'10Current 2,514,200 Apr'10 2,507,900 Apr'10JobsLost 115,900 152,800

%Lost 4.4% 5.8%

RecoveryToDate 10,900Jobs 28,400Jobs

3monthavg 3,600 jobs 9,500jobs

2monthavg 10,300 jobs 16,000jobs

ReturntoPeak 11months 10months

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

17/22

Strengtheningof

the

dollar

Carbonlegislation

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

18/22

G ttin th H alth

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

19/22

Th tc m

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

20/22

Gr R i nal Pr ct

763.1

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA 2005-2035

$ Billions*

466.0

556.6

656.1

252.5294.4

384.1

'05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35

*2000ConstantDollars

Source: ThePerryman

Group,

Spring/Summer

2009

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

21/22

P lati n an Em l m nt

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA 2005-2035

7.9

8.6

9.4

5.3

5.9

6.5

7.2

2.4 2.63.0

3.33.5

3.8 .

'05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35

Population Employment

Source: ThePerrymanGroup,Spring/Summer2009

8/9/2019 Houston Recession and Recovery

22/22

RealEstateAdvisoryCommittee

,

RECESSIONAND RECOVERY

PatrickJankowskiVicePresident,Research