How do Materials Affect Energy Sustainability ?

Energy Limits Materials Availability

esp. Sustainable Availability ✔

but ….

Do Materials Limit Energy Availability,

esp. Sustainable Availability ?

Igor Lubomirsky and David Cahen

but what about the inversei.e., does sustainable materials availability

affect sustainable energy availability ?

How will transitioning to new energy technologies affect materials production

and consumption?

Do we have the technological abilities to adapt?

If yes, how?

Sustainable Energy availability defines the range of Materials that can be used

sustainably

World Oil Energy Consumption by Sector, 1973-2010

Why do we have to consider these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized.

If a technologically and economically viable energy

alternative exists,

can it be implemented

and if it can,

to what extent* and how fast?**-------------------------------------* ≤ few %, or 10 few 10s of % of global energy use ?** weeks, months, years, decades ?

Why do we have to consider these questions ?

Questions: 1.How much energy can be diverted without major disruptions to living standards? how flexible is energy consumption structure?

2. Can limitations on materials availability affect (energy) technology transitions ?

Postulate

Transition to new technologies requires diversion of materials and

energy

Well .. what is energy used for?

11%

10%

24%

27.5%

27.5%

Materials production Transportation Residential use Commercial services Other

(= most of the “industry” part) 2010

Why do we have to consider these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized.

Can some of this energy be redirected?

Consider Transportation (nearly 30% of total)?

Industrial and commercial Personal and recreational

35.4%

21.2%

23.2%

Agriculture Construction

20.2%

Only ~8% of personal fuel consumption is

“purely” recreational (~1.6% of all transportation,

0.5 % of total)!

“Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”,

The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010)

Energy usage in transportation in the US

2010

Residential? (~ 25 % of total)

Major fraction (>85%) is for heating and air conditioning.

Commercial services? (~ 10 % of total)

Energy consumption can be cut … at expense of important services-----------------------------------------------

From past* experience ~10% ( 3.5% of total)

*: e.g., 2008/9

Can some residential or commercial services energy

use be redirected?

“Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production

and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010)

Can some of the energy for materials processing be

redirected?

“Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of

energy production and use”, The National Academies press,

Washington DC (2010)

10.7 (32%)4 (12%)

1.5 (5%)

2 (6%)

3 (9%)

12 (36%)

steel cement ammonia aluminum plastics all other

Production of 5 materials requires > 50% of all energy for industry / materials

processing(Haber-Bosch)(Hall-Héroult)

2010

1.3% (6%)

1.4% (7%)

2% (10%)

6% (30%)

> 4% (> 30%)3%

(15%)

Because these 5 materials are vital, only a small part of the energy used for industry can be really

diverted

Can energy expenses for materials processing

decrease with time?

YES, but it takes time…*

* e.g., 3-D Printing

Decreasing energy cost of material extraction from orepig iron

Al smeltingen

erg

y in

ten

sit

y (

MJ/

kg

)

en

erg

y in

ten

sit

y (

MJ/

kg

)

production (x 106 tonnes)

production (x 106 tonnes)

1800

1890

2008

TD limit

0000000

TD limit

2009

from:

embodied energy (MJ/kg)

Pri

ce o

f m

ate

rial (U

S$/k

g)

From:

The importance of “embodied energy” of materials

em

bod

ied

en

erg

y (

MJ/

kg

)

Dilution (1/concentration)(x106 tonnes)

em

bod

ied

en

erg

y (

MJ/

kg

)

world production/consumption (x106 tonnes)

Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase.

WHY?because improved extraction technology

is offset by decreased quality and ore exhaustion

Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..

Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006).

COPPER

Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase,

and because of increased energy cost of extraction with decreasing ore quality

Energy and greenhouse gas implications of deteriorating quality ore reserves; T.Norgate and S. Jahanshahi; CSIRO Minerals/Centre for Sustainable Resource Processing; URL : http://www.minerals.csiro.au

Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase,

COPPER COPPER

Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase,

Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..

Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006).

COPPER

because discovery of new ores does not compensate for exhaustion

Can materials consumption

be restricted by increased

efficiency of their use?

Material intensity* decreases steadily

* quantity of materials per unit of product decreases)

USA

UK

Japan

Does it mean that materials consumption will decrease?

F.Krausmann et al…

The socio-metabolic transition. Long term historical trends ...

Mineral/fossil

Biomass

Well,…materials consumption / capita INCREASES because … living standards rise

Krausmann at al… 2009

Dom

esti

c M

ate

rials

Con

su

mp

tion

and, thus, absolute materials consumption accelerates

exponentially

F. Krausmann , …. , M. Fischer-Kowalski, Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century, Ecological Economics, 68(10), 2696-2705 (2009).

also per capita !!

Can materials consumption

be restricted by increased

efficiency of their use?

Maybe, but it’ll take time…

Availability of materials

Can supply of materials

be increased rapidly if technological need

arises?

Natural Abundance of Elements in Earth’s Crust

can be misleading

Price scales as a power law with abundance

John R. Boyce, Biased Technological Change and the Relative Abundance of Natural Resources

Production volumes should also scale with abundance

Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others

Can the supply of materials that are (mining)

by-products*

be increased rapidly if technological need arises?

by-products

* contrast Se, Te, Ga, Cd,In,with primary (mining) products such as Fe, Cu, Al, Zn, Sn, Pb, cement, phosphate

Availability of materials produced as

How does the need for materials

that use mining by-products

affect abilities to switch to

renewable energy sources?

materials for solar cells

(valid until we pro-/re-gress[ed] to Pb…)

Let’s look at

L. Peter, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 1840–1856doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0348

Data for some thin film “PV elements”

ppm

$ /

tonne

Material’s availability for (thin film) PV: CdTe, CIGSto

nnes/

yr

Annual production of some “PV elements”

ABUNDANCE in

earth’s crust

COST

Annual production of Te in 2010 is

150 tonne (from Cu refinement)

Current recovery rate is 33–40%

Increasing installed CdTe PV capacity from current 0.01 TWpe to 0.1 TWpe requires a few times increase in Cu production.

In 2008 Cu production used 0.08% of world energy. Increasing production by a few times will not be possible (quickly).

Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey) and

Fthenakis, V.: Sustainability metrics for extending thin-film photovoltaics to terawatt levels, MRS Bulletin, 37(4), 425 (2012).

Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to exhaustion

with the current

consumption rate and

technology

Annual production including recycling

Known resources

Indium (Zn,Al) 2010 574 N/A Probably <10

Gallium (Al, Zn) 2008 184 N/A Probably <10

Tellurium (Cu) 2010 155 22,000 140

Selenium (Cu) 2009(US declined to disclose)

2,280 88,000 39

Cadmium (Zn) 2010 22,000 660,000 30

Similar calculations can be done for other materials

Increase in Ga (or In) production requires increase in Al

production

Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey)

How large can the increase be?Only 10% of Al producers extract GaSeem

s pra

ctica

lly

imposs

ible

But Si, Ti, Pb and organics… are available in really large quantities

  Approximate energy cost production (GJ t-1)

Primary products

Aluminum 188Steel 29

Copper 135Cement 6

Iron ore 3Lead 31

Zinc 76Phosphate 0.35

Secondary productsGallium 50

Germanium 40Indium 40

Selenium 116Tellurium 116

Cadmium 4.5

36

Listed energy cost of the byproducts (excluding price of primary product)

Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..

(large) increase in by-product production

requires

(large) increase in production of corresponding primary product

maybe possible (or find alternatives),

but not on short time* scales

So, where does this leave us?

* weeks /months/few years

Can recycling help?

Yes, at least partially Current recycling Apparent Extraction

Level (%) Efficiency (%)Pb >90 2Fe 55-65 23Al 40-50 15Sn >50 12Mg >40 7Cu >25 3Asphalt >75 --(in USA)Ammonia (fertilizer) none --Cement ( concrete) minor --

2010

But sizeable fraction of materials (still) can’t be / aren’t recycled

10.7 (32%)4 (12%)

1.5 (5%)

2 (6%)

3 (9%)

12 (36%)

steel cement ammonia aluminum plastics all other

Recycled already >50%

(Haber-Bosch)(Hall-Héroult)

1. We will need time to have flexibility in our ability to divert energy resources to new technologies.

2. Whether or not we can increase production of materials will depend on abundance and on if they are by-products.

3. Recycling can provide partial relief for a lot, though not all “major” materials.

Conclusions:

Sustainable energy availability sustainable materials availability?Sustainable energy availability is not exactly or always sustainable materials availability

So, here is

your

challe

nge:

We need new id

eas