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How misinformation about agriculture threatens sustainability and innovation
Alison Van EenennaamCooperative Extension SpecialistAnimal Biotechnology and Genomics Department of Animal Science University of California, Davis, USA
Email: [email protected]: @BioBeefBLOG:https://biobeef.faculty.ucdavis.edu/ http://animalscience.ucdavis.edu/animalbiotech
Van Eenennaam 7/30/2019
9/11/2014
2014 20152008
Probabilistically I am an unlikely agricultural scientist
Van Eenennaam 7/30/2019
Australia – the land of unusual animals
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Agricultural science – not exactly a common career choice for an city-raised girl
Van Eenennaam 7/30/2019
Beef Cattle Champions 1950s vs 1980s
1988 Grand Champion Polled Hereford Show
1953. Grand Champion Angus Female 1950. Grand Champion Steer, weighing 1025 lbs
1986. Denver Champion weighing 2529 lbs
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196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019
Production (Million Tonnes)
Stoc
ks (M
illio
n H
ead)
Stocks (million head) Production (million tonnes)
Linear (Stocks (million head)) Linear (Production (million tonnes))
US Cattle Inventory 1961 – 2019Stocks Down (Million head; blue, left)
vs. Beef Production Up (Million Tonnes; red, right)
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USDA FAS Beef and Veal Production - Selected Countries Summary -https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads
7.4
12.7
97Total head
95Total head
Animal breeders are glorified matchmakers
Van Eenennaam 7/30/2019
2019 Global Beef Production NumbersCattle numbers (Million Head; blue, left)
vs. Beef production (Million Tons; red, right)
USDA FAS Beef and Veal Production - Selected Countries Summary -https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads Van Eenennaam 7/30/2019
Past and projected trends in consumption of meat and milk in developing and developed countries
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1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050
Tota
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Developing - meatDeveloped - meatDeveloping - milkDeveloped - milk
The narrative around animal breeding in polite progressive society
Audio: http://civileats.com/2015/02/19/no-scrubs-breeding-a-better-bull-audio Van Eenennaam 7/30/2019
Spiral-of-silence model“Fear of isolation” makes people less likely to express unpopular opinions in public
Van Eenennaam 7/30/2019
Plant and animal breeders have perhaps the most compelling sustainability story of all time
https://grist.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/corn-hybrid-yields.jpeg Van Eenennaam 7/9/20199/11/2014
# bad stock photos of my job
Van Eenennaam 7/30/2019
Entering the Whole Foods “alternative fact” zone
Whole Foods, have committed “to replace fast-grow ing chicken breeds w ith slower-grow ing breeds ” that grow < 50 grams/d for 58 days rather than 61 grams/d for 44 days
Nothing else about how the chickens are being raised is changing, they are just around for 14 more days before slaughter…..
Why? According to Theo Weening, the global meat buyer for Whole Foods Market, the slow-growingbird "is a much better, healthier chicken, & at the same time it's a much [more] flavorfulchicken as well ".
Where is the objective, evidence-base to support this assertion?
• Livability (survival) is improving 0.22%/yr• Condemnation rates are decreasing 0.7%/yr. M. N. Katanbaf, J. W. Hardiman; Primary broiler breeding—Striking a balance between economic and well-being traits, Poultry Science, Volume 89, Issue 4, 1 April 2010, Pages 822–824, https://doi.org/10.3382/ps.2009-00439
1960: 13.25 lbsfeed/5 lb broiler
2008: 8.25 lbsfeed/5 lb broiler
Agriculturalists have to speak up about tradeoffs from eschewing innovation
Van Eenennaam 7/30/2019
The impact of innovation on future animal breeding programs
1961 Today 2050
Num
ber o
f Ani
mal
s (In
bill
ions
)
6.6B
56B
44B less
74.6B
Without innovation = no productivity increase
18B less
175B
131B
Current rate of genetic improvement
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Animal Genomics and Biotechnology Education
Cognitive dissonance: mental discomfort experienced by a person who simultaneously holds two or more
contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values
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Crop/species 2017 total production
2017 Amount needed at 1950s rate
Additional needed
Soybeans 4,391,553,000 BU
(263,493,180,000 lb)(119,769,627,000 kg)
82,591,000Acres
(33,423,392 ha)
202,375,714Acres
(81,898.546 ha)
~ 120 millionAcres
(~48 million ha)
Corn 14,604,067,000 BU
(817,827,752,000 lb)(371,739,887,000 kg)
83,136,000Acres
(33,643,946 ha)
382,305,419 Acres
(155,522,885 ha)
~ 300 million Acres
(~120 million ha)
Dairy cattle 215,466,000,000 lbsmilk
(97,939,090,900 kg)
9.3 million head 40.5 million head ~ 31 million head
Broilers 41,039,000,000 lbsmeat
(18,654,090,900 kg)
8.9 billionhead
13.3 billionhead
~ 4.4 billion head& additional
66.5 billion lbs feed as less efficient FCR
The Sustainability Opportunity Cost of Forgone Innovation
Van Eenennaam 7/30/2019
Title
http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/01/29/public-and-scientists-views-on-science-and-society/pi_2015-01-29_science-and-society-00-01/Image from http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/06/150129-public-opinion-aaas-health-education-science/
Animal Genomics and Biotechnology Education
Approx. 70% of female Sprague–Dawley rats get mammary tumors by 2 years of age.Control image downloaded fromhttp://www.ratfanclub.org/mamtumpics.html
911 CONTROL
Séralini et al. (2012) Two year study on rats given NK603 genetically engineered corn (GMO) and/or Roundup (R) (retracted; then republished in Environmental Sciences Europe)
The initial Seralini release was timed to occur immediately before California voted on genetically engineered food labeling
911 CONTROL
The ENSSER statement echoes the ongoing campaign to suggest there is no consensus on childhood vaccinations
European Network of Scientists for Social and Environmental Responsibility (ENSSER)
Title
Multiomics reveal non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in rats following chronic exposure to an ultra-low dose of Roundup herbicide. 2017.
Same old rats – this time 10 control ♀ and 10 treatment ♀ livers were examined (n=20)
Sex-dependent impact of Roundup on the rat gut microbiome. 2018.Same old rats - feces from 3♂ / 3♀ control & 9♂/ 9♀ treatment rats
(n=24)
Sowing the seeds of skepticism
Shawn F. Dorius & Carolyn J. Lawrence-Dill (2018): Sowing the seeds of skepticism: Russian state news and anti-GMO sentiment, GM Crops & Food, DOI: 10.1080/21645698.2018.1454192
Iowa State researchers found among 7 news sites, that two Russian news sites (RT and Sputnik) produced more than 50 percent of all GMO-related articles and usually portrayed GMOs negatively. RT published “nearly all” of the articles where the term GM appeared as “click bait,” the researchers said.
Narratives that are based on emotion or fear are difficult to address using logic or reason
Jenny McCarthy – Vaccinations
Vani Hari aka Food Babe– Chemicals in food
Zen Honeycutt– GMOs and glyphosate
And this is probably not the ideal spokesperson to address those fears
#badstockphotosofmyjob
Aristotle’s Rhetorical Triangle -the available means of persuasion
LOGOSLogic/reason/proof
Appeal to logic
ETHOSCredibility/trustAppeal to ethics
PATHOSEmotions/values
Appeal to emotion
Background
Supporting details
Results
Sharedvalues and
bottom lineSo what?
Supporting details
A i l G i d Bi h l Ed i
Why should consumers care? Because GM has facilitated reductions in pesticide use &
environmental footprint of agricultural production
• 56% decrease in global insecticide use on cotton as a result of Btcotton (~20 million kg active ingredient)
• GM insect resistant and herbicide tolerant crops have reduced pesticide spraying by 671.4 million kg (8.2%) and, as a result, decreased the environmental impact associated with herbicide and insecticide use on these crops by 18.4%.
• Important cuts in fuel use and no till, resulting in a significant reduction in the release of GHG emissions ~ in 2016, this was equivalent to removing 16.7 million cars from the roads.Graham Brookes & Peter Barfoot (2018) Environmental impacts of genetically modified (GM) crop use 1996-2016: Impacts on pesticide use and carbon emissions, GM Crops & Food, 9:3, 109-139, DOI: 10.1080/21645698.2018.1476792
What does “non-GMO” milk and eggs mean? Farmers have to source more expensive, non-GMO feed, and also
may have to resort to the use of more harmful chemicals
“Alternative ag facts” harm sustainability & are being promulgated by marketers looking to increase market share
“Preying on a parent’s instinctive desire to protect the health of their children by using lies to scare them into paying more money for absence-labeled foods, or
worse to avoid fresh produce altogether due to misguided fears of GMOs or pesticides,
is the most unethical and disingenuous way to increase
market share imaginable.”
- Alison Van Eenennaam
In response to the twitter trolls that will emerge– humor is powerful – as is self-deprecation
19882018
We need to get out there and tell compelling narratives –especially agricultural scientists – alternative ag facts and
untold tradeoffs have real sustainability impacts
Foodevo.com
https://www.foodevolutionmovie.com/
In
12/16/2014
Genetically modify food?
http://intelligencesquaredus.org/debates/past-debates/item/1161-genetically-modify-food
Thanks for inviting me!
My laboratory receives public funding support from the National Institute of Food and Agriculture and the Biotechnology Risk Assessment Grant (BRAG) program, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under award numbers 2015-67015-23316, 2015-33522-24106, 2017-33522-27097, and 2018-67030-28360.
