ICES Advice for 2009

South Western WatersSWWRAC, Lisbon, 08July08

Manuela Azevedo

(on behalf of ACOM Chair)

Hake pescada

Megrim areeiro Sole linguado

Anglerfish tamboril

Nephrops lagostim

Precautionary approach

Fpa

Blim

Flim

Bpa

Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB)

Fish

ing

mort

alit

yUsed to determine state of the stock and basis for advice

Bmsy Bmax

Fmsy

Fmax

Status of fish stocks• Expressed relative to precautionary reference

points– Biomass

– Fishing mortality

Reduced reproductive capacity

Full reproductive capacity

At risk of reduced

reproductive capacity

low

highBlim Bpa

Harvested unsustainablyHarvested sustainably

At risk of unsustainable

harvesting

low

highFpa Flim

Basis for the advice– If biomass

below Bpa : F that will achieve SSB at Bpa in 2010

below Blim : zero catch or Recovery Plan

– If management plans evaluated to be precautionary• Advice according to management plan

– If no assessment available• Indications of stable population: no increase effort/catch

– e.g. apply recent average catch• Indications of declining population: decrease effort/catch• Indications of depleted population: lowest possible/zero catch

Northern HakeIIIa, IV, VI, VII, VIIIabd

ICES advice

Landings in 2009 should not exceed 51 500 t → decrease in TAC of 5%

According to Fpa

Management objectives - Increase SSB above 140 th t: F < 0.25 but TAC±15%- If SSB >= 140 th t for 2 consecutive years then Management Plan

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

020

000

4000

060

000

Landingsto

nnes

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Fishing mortality

F(2

-6) Fpa

Flim

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

010

0000

2500

00

Recruitment

age

0 ()

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

010

0000

2500

00

SSB

Bpa

Blim

SSB > Bpa Fsq = Fpa Fsq > Fmax

Management considerations

• Discards of juvenile hake can be substantial in some areas and fleets. The spawning biomass and the long-term yield can be substantially improved by reducing mortality of small fish: technical measures that reduce unwanted bycatch and other measures that shift the selection pattern towards larger fish.

• The northern hake stock met the SSB target in the recovery plan of 140 000 t for two consecutive years, according to the results from the 2006 and 2007 assessments. Article 3 of the recovery plan indicated that a management plan should now be implemented and one is under development.

•The reduction of fishing mortality to levels around Fpa (0.25) has promoted the increase in SSB in recent years.

SoleBay of Biscay (VIIIabd)

ICES advice

Landings in 2009 should not exceed 4 430 t → increase in TAC of 6%

According to Fpa

Management objectives - Increase SSB above 13 th t in 2008

10% annual reduction on F but TAC±15%

SSB ~ Bpa Fsq ~ Fpa Fsq > Fmax

FISHING MORTALITY

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

84 88 92 96 00 04

Year

F (3

-6,u

)

Flim

Fpa

SPAWNING STOCK BIOMASS (SSB)

-113579

11131517

84 88 92 96 00 04

Year

(Tho

usan

d to

nnes

) Bpa

LANDINGS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

84 88 92 96 00 04

Year

(Tho

usan

d to

nnes

)

RECRUITMENT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

84 88 92 96 00 04

Year

2 YEAR

OLD

S (M

illion

s)

GM

Management considerations

• Since the stock is estimated close to the target SSB of 13 000t, according to article 3 of the multi-annual plan it is necessary for EC to decide on a long-term target fishing mortality rate and a rate of reduction to achieve the target.

Megrim in Divisions VIIb-k and VIIIabd

L. whiffiagonis

ICES advice

Landings in 2009 should not exceed 13 000 t Basis: average landings of 2004–2006

Management objectives There are no explicit management objectives for this stock

• New survey data do not change stock perception: “.. survey indicators and commercial data series point to the stock being stable.”

• No new advice: to be updated next year

Anglerfish in VIIb-k and VIIIabdL. piscatorius and L. budegassa

ICES advice

Landings in 2009 should not exceed 33 000 t Basis: average landings of 2004–2006

Management objectives There are no explicit management objectives for these stocks

• New survey data do not change stock perception: “.. survey indicators and commercial data series point to the stocks being stable.”

• No new advice: to be updated next year

-18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

Longitude (º W )

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

Latit

ude

(º N

)

23

24

3125

26

27

28

29 30IXa

IXb

VIIIa

VIIIb

VIIIc

VIIIdVIIIe

Nephrops VIIIab (Bay of Biscay)

Functional Units 23 and 24:

Assessed as one entity

ICES advice

Landings in 2009 should not exceed 3 400 t Basis: average catch of 2005–2007

Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for this fishery

Reference points not defined Fsq > Fmax

FISHING MORTALITY

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.80

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year

RECRUITMENT (AT AGE 1)

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year

SPAWNING STOCK BIOMASS (SSB)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year

REMOVALS AND LANDINGS

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year

landings

removals

F(2-5)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

SSB

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

R (age 1)

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Underestimation of Fishing mortality

Overestimation of Spawning Biomass

Major revision on Recruits

Short-term forecast not provided due to the high uncertainty of recent levels of recruitment. Short-term forecasts are particularly sensitive to uncertainty in recent recruitment

Management considerations

• Although the stock seems to have been relatively stable there is an opportunity to greatly increase the long-term yield from this fishery as well as the SSB.

This can be achieved by lowering the fishing mortality and improving the selection pattern. Since the present fishing mortality is three times the fishing mortality related to high long-term yield, a management plan should be established to reduce fishing mortality and also to improve the selection pattern, in particular by reducing discarding.

Iberian Waters (VIIIc and IXa)

ICES advice

Zero catch in 2009 According to Bpa

Management objectivesIncrease SSB above 35 th t by reducing F to 0.27 by 2015

10% annual reduction on F but TAC±15%

Hake in VIIIc and IXa (Southern hake)

SSB < Blim Fsq > Flim Fsq > Fmax

Fsq > 0.27

Increased!

Well below Blim !

TAC overshot

Management considerations

• The implementation of the recovery plan has not been effective. Fishing mortality is increasing, the TAC is overshot, and discard rates are high.

• Had a 10% annual reduction in fishing mortality been achieved since 2006 according to the recovery plan, the fishing mortality in 2009 would be less than half of the most recent estimate.

• Recent increases in SSB and yield are due to good recruitment in recent years, but at the Fsq level there is a high probability of reversing the upwards trend in SSB unless F in 2009 is reduced by at least 40%

ICES advice

Landings in 2009 should not exceed 1 430 t230 t (megrim) + 1200 t (4-spotted-megrim)

Basis: No increase in F

Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for these stocks

• New survey and commercial data do not change stock perception: “ .. SSB stable for L. whiffiagonis and increasing for L. boscii.”

• No new advice: to be updated next year

Megrim in VIIIc and IXa

ICES advice

Close the fishery and develop a Recovery Plan According to PA

Management objectivesThere are no explicit management objectives for these stocks

• There are no indications that the stock has improved Last year: Fishing mortality equal to zero in 2008 was not

expected to bring the stock back to BMSY. • No new advice: to be updated next year

Anglerfish in VIIIc and IXa

-18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

Longitude (º W )

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

Latit

ude

(º N

)

23

24

3125

26

27

28

29 30IXa

IXb

VIIIa

VIIIb

VIIIc

VIIIdVIIIe

Nephrops

VIIIc

FU 25 – North Galicia

FU 31 – Cantabrian Sea

IXaFU 26-27 - West Galicia & North Portugal

FU 28-29 - SW & S Portugal

FU 30 - Gulf of Cadiz

Management objectivesRebuild the stock within 10 years (RPlan since end January 2006)10% annual reduction on F but TAC±15%

Apply to all FU in Iberian waters

ICES advice FU 25: Reduce catches to zero FU 31: Reduce catches to zero

Landings

0

40

80

120

160

200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Landin

gs (to

nnes)

Effort

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Effort (days fis

hin

g)

Avilés + Santander fleets

Santander fleet

LPUE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 L

PU

E (kg / in

dex)

Avilés fleet

Santander fleet

Mean sizes

32

36

40

44

48

52

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mean s

ize (m

m c

ara

pace length

)

Landings Mal

Landings Fem

2* 3*

IXa

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

ton

nes

FU 30

FU 28-29

FU 26-27

ICES advice

FU 26-27: Reduce catches to zero

1* -weekend break in West Galicia, 2*- 70 mm mesh size, 3*-recovery plan

Figure 7.4.10.2 Nephrops FU 26+27, West Galicia and North Portugal: Long-term trends in landings, effort, LPUE and mean sizes.

ICES advice

FU 28-29: Catch in 2009 should not exceed 200 t

Landings (males and females combined)

0

200

400

600

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Cat

ches

(to

nnes

)

Fishing Mortality

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Fba

r

Males Females

Recruitment (relative to long-term average)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

R (

rela

tive

to lo

ng-t

erm

ave

rage

) Males Females

SSB (relative to long-term average)

0

50

100

150

200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

SS

B (

rela

tive

to lo

ng-t

erm

ave

rage

)

Males Females

ICES advice

FU 30: Catch in 2009 should not exceed 200 t

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Abundan

ce s

urv

ey index

(Kg/h

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

LPUE

200-700 m of depth *LPUE

Figure 13.3.3. Nephrops in FU 30 (Gulf of Cadiz). Mean sizes of landings from 2001 to 2007 (mean ± s.e.)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Mea

n s

izes

lan

din

gs

(mm

CL

)

Figure 13.3.6. Nephrops in FU 30 (Division Ixa Gulf of Cadiz).Mean size (mean ± e.s) spring botom trawl survey from 2001 to 2008.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mea

n s

ize

(mm

CL

)

??

Mean size

Landings

Survey

Landings

Management considerations

• The calculation of a TAC corresponding to a reduction in F of 10% as called for in the recovery plan was not feasible (fishery indicators too uncertain: FU 25,31, 26-27, 30) or unreliable short-term forecasts (FU 28-29)

• Since the TAC is set for the combined fishery units FU 26–30, a disproportionate amount could be taken from one or the other of the units. This could result in a higher fishing mortality on one of the stocks than had been anticipated. Finer-scale management of catches and/or effort at a geographic scale that corresponds to the distribution of the Nephrops stock should be implemented.

STOCK Advice 2009 comparison to last year

Hake IIIa, IV, VI, VIII, VIIIabd (Northern stock) 51 500 t same basis

Megrim VIIb-k, VIIIabd 1 400 t unchanged

Anglerfish VIIb-k, VIIIabd < 33 000 t unchanged

Sole VIIIabd (Bay of Biscay) < 4 430 t same basis

Nephrops VIIIab

FU 23-24: Bay of Biscay 3 400 t same basis

Hake VIIIc, IXa (Southern stock) 0 unchanged

Megrim VIIIc, IXa < 13 000 t unchanged

Anglerfish VIIIc, IXa 0 or Rplan unchanged

Nephrops VIIIc

FU 25: North Galicia 0 unchanged

FU 31: Cantabrian Sea 0 unchanged

Nephrops IXa

FU 26-27: West Galicia & North Portugal 0 unchanged

FU 28-29: Southwest & South Portugal 200 t unchanged

FU 30: Gulf Cadiz 200 t changed