ICES Advice for 2009 South Western Waters SWWRAC, Lisbon, 08July08 Manuela Azevedo (on behalf of ACOM Chair)

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ICES Advice for 2009 South Western Waters SWWRAC, Lisbon, 08July08 Manuela Azevedo (on behalf of ACOM Chair) Slide 2 Hake pescada Megrim areeiro Sole linguado Anglerfish tamboril Nephrops lagostim Slide 3 Precautionary approach F pa B lim F lim B pa Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) Fishing mortality Used to determine state of the stock and basis for advice B msy B max F msy F max Slide 4 Status of fish stocks Expressed relative to precautionary reference points Biomass Fishing mortality Reduced reproductive capacity Full reproductive capacity At risk of reduced reproductive capacity lowhigh B lim B pa Harvested unsustainably Harvested sustainably At risk of unsustainable harvesting lowhigh F pa F lim Slide 5 Basis for the advice If biomass below B pa : F that will achieve SSB at B pa in 2010 below B lim : zero catch or Recovery Plan If management plans evaluated to be precautionary Advice according to management plan If no assessment available Indications of stable population: no increase effort/catch e.g. apply recent average catch Indications of declining population: decrease effort/catch Indications of depleted population: lowest possible/zero catch Slide 6 Northern Hake IIIa, IV, VI, VII, VIIIabd Slide 7 ICES advice Landings in 2009 should not exceed 51 500 t decrease in TAC of 5% According to Fpa Management objectives - Increase SSB above 140 th t: F = 140 th t for 2 consecutive years then Management Plan Slide 8 SSB > BpaFsq = FpaFsq > Fmax Slide 9 Management considerations Discards of juvenile hake can be substantial in some areas and fleets. The spawning biomass and the long-term yield can be substantially improved by reducing mortality of small fish: technical measures that reduce unwanted bycatch and other measures that shift the selection pattern towards larger fish. The northern hake stock met the SSB target in the recovery plan of 140 000 t for two consecutive years, according to the results from the 2006 and 2007 assessments. Article 3 of the recovery plan indicated that a management plan should now be implemented and one is under development. The reduction of fishing mortality to levels around Fpa (0.25) has promoted the increase in SSB in recent years. Slide 10 Sole Bay of Biscay (VIIIabd) Slide 11 ICES advice Landings in 2009 should not exceed 4 430 t increase in TAC of 6% According to Fpa Management objectives - Increase SSB above 13 th t in 2008 10% annual reduction on F but TAC15% Slide 12 SSB ~ BpaFsq ~ FpaFsq > Fmax Slide 13 Management considerations Since the stock is estimated close to the target SSB of 13 000t, according to article 3 of the multi-annual plan it is necessary for EC to decide on a long-term target fishing mortality rate and a rate of reduction to achieve the target. Slide 14 Megrim in Divisions VIIb-k and VIIIabd L. whiffiagonis Slide 15 ICES advice Landings in 2009 should not exceed 13 000 t Basis: average landings of 20042006 Management objectives There are no explicit management objectives for this stock New survey data do not change stock perception: .. survey indicators and commercial data series point to the stock being stable. No new advice: to be updated next year Slide 16 Anglerfish in VIIb-k and VIIIabd L. piscatorius and L. budegassa Slide 17 ICES advice Landings in 2009 should not exceed 33 000 t Basis: average landings of 20042006 Management objectives There are no explicit management objectives for these stocks New survey data do not change stock perception: .. survey indicators and commercial data series point to the stocks being stable. No new advice: to be updated next year Slide 18 Nephrops VIIIab (Bay of Biscay) Functional Units 23 and 24: Assessed as one entity Slide 19 ICES advice Landings in 2009 should not exceed 3 400 t Basis: average catch of 20052007 Management objectives There are no explicit management objectives for this fishery Slide 20 Reference points not definedFsq > Fmax Slide 21 Underestimation of Fishing mortality Overestimation of Spawning Biomass Major revision on Recruits Short-term forecast not provided due to the high uncertainty of recent levels of recruitment. Short-term forecasts are particularly sensitive to uncertainty in recent recruitment Slide 22 Management considerations Although the stock seems to have been relatively stable there is an opportunity to greatly increase the long-term yield from this fishery as well as the SSB. This can be achieved by lowering the fishing mortality and improving the selection pattern. Since the present fishing mortality is three times the fishing mortality related to high long-term yield, a management plan should be established to reduce fishing mortality and also to improve the selection pattern, in particular by reducing discarding. Slide 23 Iberian Waters (VIIIc and IXa) Slide 24 ICES advice Zero catch in 2009 According to Bpa Management objectives Increase SSB above 35 th t by reducing F to 0.27 by 2015 10% annual reduction on F but TAC15% Hake in VIIIc and IXa (Southern hake) Slide 25 SSB < BlimFsq > FlimFsq > FmaxFsq > 0.27 Increased! Well below Blim ! TAC overshot Slide 26 Management considerations The implementation of the recovery plan has not been effective. Fishing mortality is increasing, the TAC is overshot, and discard rates are high. Had a 10% annual reduction in fishing mortality been achieved since 2006 according to the recovery plan, the fishing mortality in 2009 would be less than half of the most recent estimate. Recent increases in SSB and yield are due to good recruitment in recent years, but at the Fsq level there is a high probability of reversing the upwards trend in SSB unless F in 2009 is reduced by at least 40% Slide 27 ICES advice Landings in 2009 should not exceed 1 430 t 230 t (megrim) + 1200 t (4-spotted-megrim) Basis: No increase in F Management objectives There are no explicit management objectives for these stocks New survey and commercial data do not change stock perception: .. SSB stable for L. whiffiagonis and increasing for L. boscii. No new advice: to be updated next year Megrim in VIIIc and IXa Slide 28 ICES advice Close the fishery and develop a Recovery Plan According to PA Management objectives There are no explicit management objectives for these stocks There are no indications that the stock has improved Last year: Fishing mortality equal to zero in 2008 was not expected to bring the stock back to B MSY. No new advice: to be updated next year Anglerfish in VIIIc and IXa Slide 29 Nephrops VIIIc FU 25 North Galicia FU 31 Cantabrian Sea IXa FU 26-27 - West Galicia & North Portugal FU 28-29 - SW & S Portugal FU 30 - Gulf of Cadiz Slide 30 Management objectives Rebuild the stock within 10 years (RPlan since end January 2006) 10% annual reduction on F but TAC15% Apply to all FU in Iberian waters Slide 31 ICES advice FU 25: Reduce catches to zero FU 31: Reduce catches to zero Slide 32 IXa Slide 33 ICES advice FU 26-27: Reduce catches to zero Slide 34 ICES advice FU 28-29: Catch in 2009 should not exceed 200 t Slide 35 ICES advice FU 30: Catch in 2009 should not exceed 200 t ?? Mean size Landings Survey Landings Slide 36 Management considerations The calculation of a TAC corresponding to a reduction in F of 10% as called for in the recovery plan was not feasible (fishery indicators too uncertain: FU 25,31, 26-27, 30) or unreliable short-term forecasts (FU 28-29) Since the TAC is set for the combined fishery units FU 2630, a disproportionate amount could be taken from one or the other of the units. This could result in a higher fishing mortality on one of the stocks than had been anticipated. Finer-scale management of catches and/or effort at a geographic scale that corresponds to the distribution of the Nephrops stock should be implemented. Slide 37 STOCKAdvice 2009 comparison to last year Hake IIIa, IV, VI, VIII, VIIIabd (Northern stock) 51 500 t same basis Megrim VIIb-k, VIIIabd 1 400 t unchanged Anglerfish VIIb-k, VIIIabd < 33 000 t unchanged Sole VIIIabd (Bay of Biscay) < 4 430 t same basis Nephrops VIIIab FU 23-24: Bay of Biscay 3 400 t same basis Hake VIIIc, IXa (Southern stock) 0 unchanged Megrim VIIIc, IXa < 13 000 t unchanged Anglerfish VIIIc, IXa 0 or Rplan unchanged Nephrops VIIIc FU 25: North Galicia 0 unchanged FU 31: Cantabrian Sea 0 unchanged Nephrops IXa FU 26-27: West Galicia & North Portugal 0 unchanged FU 28-29: Southwest & South Portugal 200 t unchanged FU 30: Gulf Cadiz 200 t changed