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Long-time variability of hydro-meteorological fields in the eastern part of Gdansk basin

V.F. Dubravin, Zh.I. Stont, E.V. Dorokhova

Atlantic Branch of P.P.Shirshov Institute of oceanology Russian Academy of sciences Pr. Mira 1, 236000 Kaliningrad, Russia

On the base of the data of seasonal surveys (May 2003 – November 2011) carried out during complex ecological monitoring of off-

shore oilfield Kravtsovskoye (D6), the data from automatic hydro-meteorological station MiniKrams-4 (January 2004 – December 2011) seated on the offshore ice-resistant fixed platform Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft and the data measured in Baltiysk sity, Svetlog-orsk sity, P-1, the seasonal and interannual variability of follow parameters on the east of Gdansk Basin were investigated: water salin-ity S and temperature Tw, air temperature Ta, dew-point temperature Td, atmospheric pressure on sea level P0 and wind speed W. It was shown that seasonal trend of Tw, Ta, Td and W is characterized by annual harmonic, in seasonal trend of S half year harmonic becomes pronounced, and for P0 half year harmonic becomes prevalent. Interannual variability of hydro-meteo elements of the region has cyclical character. Quasi two years, 3- and 5-years periodicities were marked off, and it is proposed of 7-8-, 10-12-, 19-, 22-24-years and century cycles.

I. INTRODUCTION

Varied physical processes taking place in the World Ocean (the sea) and in the atmosphere above are lead to forming hetero-

geneity in properties distributions (parameters and characteristics). These heterogeneities cover wide range both in time (from small-scale to centuries-long periods) and in space (from small-scale to global) [11].

The main purpose of this investigation is quantitative estimation of long-time variability (seasonal and interannual) of hydro-meteorological parameters in the South-Eastern Baltic.

II. MATERIALS AND METHODS

Analysis of long-time variability of hydro-meteorological elements was carried out on the basis of the time series model of S.

Lappo et al [19]. Long-time variability consists of normal seasonal trend ST (regular and climatic), irregular annual AV and in-terannual IV components [19]. The next field data adduced in atlases and reference works were used: water temperature Tw and air temperature Ta, salinity S, water vapour tension ea (or dew-point temperature Td), atmospheric pressure on the sea level P0 and the module of wind speed W measured in Baltiysk sity, Svetlogorsk sity, P-1 and on the offshore ice-resistant fixed platform “OOO Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft” (Fig. 1) [1, 17, 5, 22, 24]. The data of the surface Tw and S observations on GMO Baltiysk [21] and the data of the seasonal surveys (2003 – 2011) carried out during complex ecological monitoring of offshore oilfield Kravtsovskoye (D-6) were also used for analysis.

Initial series were processed with application of the dispersive, harmonious, spec-trum and correlation analysis [3].

III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A. Time series structure of hydro-meteorological fields It is known [19] that in the ocean the components of initial time series (IS) – ST,

AV and IV depend not only on spatial and temporal averaging but on character of an element itself. Thus, components distribution of low-frequency variability in warmth- and moisture physical characteristics (Tw, Ta, ea) sharply differs from dynamic char-acteristics variability (P0 and W) [8]. Dispersive analysis of long-time variability of hydro-meteorological elements in the researching water area (Table 1, 2) has shown that conclusions about distribution of low-frequency components of meteo fields drawn in [8; 19] for the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans are true for our region [11, 12]. Seasonal trend ST dispersion contribution in total dispersion of initial series IS (σ2

ST/ σ2IS) for surface Tw in the Baltic was 97.1-97.2 %. At the same time interannual

variability IV contribution in total (σ2IV/ σ2

IT) was 0.2 % during 1998-2006, 0.9 % during 1950-2000 and 1.0 % during 1961-1990.

Low frequency components distribution for Ta and ea in Baltiysk is similar to abovementioned: decreasing of ST contribution from 92.7 and 94.2 % during of 1998-2006 to 92.0 and 93.5 % during 1961-1990 and inversely, increasing of IV contribution from 0.5 and 0.3 % during 1998-2006 to 1.8 and 1.2 % during 1961-1990.

Fig. 1. Stations location and used materials: 1 – [5], 2 – [17], 3 – [22], 4 – [1; 27].

The other distribution shows Р0 and W: weak decreasing of ST and IV contribution from 6.0 and 11.2 % during 1998-2006 to 6.7 and 9.7 % during 1961-1990 for Р0 ; and slight increasing of ST and IV contribution from 27.9 and 18.6 % during 1998-2006 to 34.2 and 21.1 % during 1961-1990 for W. The similar distribution of low-frequency components is observed and in the area of D-6, where for Ta, Td and P0 ST is 93.7, 89.8 and 12.1% for the period of 2004-2011, and IV – 0.9, 1.6 and 10.6 % corre-spondingly. However ST contribution for W is two times higher than in Baltiysk city – 66.8 % and IV contribution is approxi-mately much lower – 2.4 %.

TABLE 1 Total dispersion (IS), interannual (IV) and seasonal trend (ST) variability of hydro-meteorological elements

according to the data of the Baltiysk station in 1950-2000, calculated by [1, 21, 27]

Element, Dispersion

σIV2/

σIS2

σST2/

σIS2

σIV2/σIS

2 +σST

2/σIS2

period IS IV ST (%) (%) (%)

Tw (°C) (1961-1990) 43.73 0.42 42.48 0.97 97.16 98.13

Ta (°C) (1961-1990) 53.82 0.99 49.54 1.84 92.05 93.89

ea (hPa) (1961-1990) 17.02 0.21 15.91 1.24 93.50 94.74

W (m/s) (1961-1990) 1.62 0.34 0.55 21.07 34.22 55.29

P0 (hPa) (1961-1990) 17.60 1.71 1.18 9.70 6.70 16.40

Tw (°C) (1950-2000) 44.11 0.38 42.82 0.85 97.08 97.93

S (‰) (1959-1989) 0.566 0.135 0.081 23.80 14.26 38.06 Tw (°C) (1998-2006) 38.10 37.00 0.09 0.20 97.10 97.30

Ta (°C) (1998-2006) 56.70 52.57 0.27 0.50 92.70 93.20

ea (hPa) (1998-2006) 19.74 18.58 0.06 0.30 94.20 94.40

P0 (hPa) (1998-2006) 20.74 1.25 2.33 11.22 6.05 17.27

W (m/s)(1998-2006) 1.48 0.41 0.28 18.63 27.95 46.57

TABLE 2

Total dispersion (IS), interannual (IV) and seasonal trend (ST) variability of hydro-meteorological elements according to the data from the automatic hydro-meteorological station MiniKrams-4 – D-6, 2004-2011

Element, Dispersion

σIV2/

σIS2

σST2/

σIS2

σIV2/σIS

2 +σST

2/σIS2

period IS IV ST (%) (%) (%)

Ta (°C) (2004-2011) 49.70 0.42 46.55 0.85 93.66 94.52

Td (°C ) (2006-2011) 42.63 0.67 38.28 1.56 89.80 91.36

W (m/s) (2004-2011) 2.99 0.07 2.00 2.38 66.79 69.17

P0 (hPa) (2004-2011) 24.39 2.96 2.57 10.55 12.13 22.68

Thus dispersion analysis of long-time variability of hydro-meteorological parameters in the investigation area has confirmed

the conclusion of S.K. Gulev [15, 16] about spatial and temporal dependence of time (initial) series components: ST, IV and AV. B. Seasonal trend Regular seasonal trend of thermo- moisture physical parameters is characterized by prevailing of highly stable annual wave in

the researching area (Fig. 2 a-c). The ST amplitude is higher in the shore zone than in the offshore because the shallow water cools down faster in cold seasons and warms up more intensively in summer time (Tale 3). From this Table we can also see that maximum annual Tw is observed to the south of the investigated area (Baltiysk city, P-1) - 8.9-9.0 °С, to the north it gradually decreases (to 8.4-8.6°С in Svetlogorsk city and D-6).

According to the data of harmonic analysis for climatic averages in the investigation area the quota volume of the first har-monic of surface Tw is qI = 0.97÷0.99, the date of maximum occurrence is ТmaxI = 16.07÷05.08 and the amplitude is AI = 7.8÷9.3 ºC (Table 4). Where quota is contribution of given harmonic dispersion in total dispersion of seasonal trend. The annual wave stability is higher for Tа (qI = 0.995÷0.999), and inversely, a little lower for ea (qI = 0.96÷0.98) than for Tw. Annual max-imum occurrence of Tа (ТmaxI = 09.÷18.07) goes a little faster than the date of ea maximum occurrence (ТmaxI = 13.÷19.07). Throughout the monitoring at the D-6 the quota volume of annual harmonic for Tа and Td was slightly smaller than by climatic averages qI = 0.87÷0.97, and the amplitude was slightly larger AI = 7.0÷11.6 ºC. Annual maximum takes place approximately at the same time as for climatic averages ТmaxI = 05.07÷02.08 (Table 5).

Fig. 2. Seasonal trend of monthly average of: а - surface water temperature (Tw, °C); b – air temperature (Ta, °C); c - water vapour tension (ea, hPa) and

TABLE 3 Seasonal trend of surface water temperature in Russian part of the South-Eastern Baltic according to the data of [5, 22, 21, 24]

Observation points Months Year

Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1867-1955 [5]

Baltiysk 1.7 1.3 1.6 5.5 9.3 13.7 18.3 18.5 16.3 11.0 7.1 3.4 9.0

Р-1 2.7 2.1 1.8 4.1 7.8 12.4 16.8 17.9 15.9 12.1 8.2 4.5 8.9

D-6 1.5 1.1 1.2 5.0 8.4 12.5 16.8 18.0 15.7 11.0 6.6 3.0 8.4

Svetlogorsk 1.6 1.5 1.7 5.2 8.9 13.2 17.2 18.2 16.0 10.9 6.9 3.1 8.7

1948-1975 [22]

Baltiysk 0.8 0.6 1.4 5.3 10.7 15.3 18.2 18.5 15.6 10.9 5.9 2.4 8.8

Svetlogorsk 1.3 0.9 1.5 4.6 8.8 13.6 17.3 17.8 15.4 11.2 6.6 3.5 8.5

1960-1990 [21]

Baltiysk 1.1 0.8 1.7 5.6 10.9 15.4 18.2 18.6 15.4 10.7 5.9 2.4 8.9

1902-2005 [24]

Sq. 36* З.4 2.4 2.0 3.2 7.9 12.7 16.8 18.0 15.8 12.0 9.2 6.5 9.2 Note: The maximums are showed by italics and underlining, the minimums – by italics. * - author’s numeration of one degree squares: Sq. 36 is the eastern

part of the Gdansk basin (54.35-55.0° N; 19.0-20,0° E).

In ST of wind speed W annual wave contribution changes both in time and in space, but with reverse direction to Tw, Tа and

ea: maximum speeds occur in November-January and minimum speeds generally occur in July (Fig. 2d). ST of atmospheric pressure distinguishes by the least stability (annual wave contribution qI ≤ 0.18) both by climatic averages and throughout the monitoring period. It is also confirmed by results of dispersion analysis (see Table 1, 2).

ST of surface water salinity is rather complicated (Table 6). It is quite evident near the shore, where river discharge influence is so great that small water areas close to the Vistula outfall, the Klaipeda and the Baltic straits are outlined by salinity front in the junction of marine and river lagoon waters [20, 18, 4].  

The data from the Tables 3-6 show that circum continental zoning on the surface occurs for Ta, ea (or Тd) and Tw, S. However direction of variability for thermo and moisture physical parameters can change to reverse depending on season (increasing or on the contrary decreasing from the shore to the open sea). For salinity such reverse does not exist: salinity increasing is observed form the shore zone to the open sea and from winter to summer [10]. By our estimations annual harmonic contribution of salinity in the northwestern part of Russia is qI ≥ 0.7; it is decreasing to 0.63 in Baltiysk, to 0.52 in Svetlogorsk and to 0.44 on P-1 sta-tion [9].

TABLE 4 Harmonic constants of seasonal trend (maximum magnitudes) of hydro-meteorological elements in the Gdansk basin,

calculated according to the data in [17, 5, 21, 22, 27, 24]

Element

Annual magni-tude Harmonics

Ampl. I / Ampl. II

I (annual wave) II (half year wave)

Ampl. I Date I Quota I Ampl. II Date II Quota II

Tw, °C 8.4 7.80 16.07 0.973 0.76 08.01(08.07) 0.01 6.23

9.2 9.33 05.08 0.992 1.25 28.01(28.07) 0.025 11.99

S (‰) 5.63 0.07 03.11 0.435 0.01 25.05(25.11) 0.002 0.94

7.59 0.35 17.02 0.812 0.22 21.02(21.08) 0.488 17.80

Ta,°C 7.0 9.18 09.07 0.995 0.14 12.05(12.11) 0.0002 19.66

9.0 10.23 18.07 0.999 0.47 29.01(29.07) 0.003 73.51

ea, hPa 9.1 5.29 13.07 0.956 0.68 10.01(10.07) 0.015 4.74

10.5 5.99 19.07 0.982 1.12 23.01(23.07) 0.043 8.12

W, m/s 4.6 0.80 15.11 0.648 0.07 24.05(24.11) 0.004 2.37

6.3 1.63 04.01 0.975 0.52 01.02(01.08) 0.115 14.77

P0, hPa 1013.8 0.15 07.03 0.007 0.32 01.03(01.09) 0.027 0.20

1014.3 0.75 25.10 0.170 1.68 18.04(18.10) 0.439 0.64

TABLE 5 Harmonic constants of seasonal trend (maximum magnitudes) of hydro-meteorological elements at the D-6 in 2004-2011

Element

Harmonics Ampl. I / Ampl. II

I (annual wave) II (half year wave)

Ampl. I Date I Quota I Ampl. II Date II Quota II Ta (°C) 7.79 12.07 0.894 0.59 22.01(22.07) 0.004 8.0

11.65 27.07 0.974 1.15 15.06(15.12) 0.015 15.4 Td (°C) 6.99 05.07 0.868 0.71 09.01(09.07) 0.007 5.6

10.44 02.08 0.973 1.59 11.06(11.12) 0.030 12.0 W (m/s) 1.58 11.11 0.659 0.11 14.01(14.07) 0.002 1.9

2.72 10.12 0.868 1.05 18.06(18.12) 0.181 18.0 P0 (hPa) 0.49 20.01 0.004 1.18 23.02(22.08) 0.034 0.2

2.65 17.10 0.184 5.05 19.06(19.12) 0.438 1.3

TABLE 6

Seasonal trend of surface water salinity (S ‰) in Russian part of the South-Eastern Baltic according to the data in [21, 22, 24] Obser-

vation points

Months Year

Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1948-1985 [22] Bal-

tiysk 6.04 5.87 5.38 4.93 5.21 5.56 5.67 5.56 5.68 5.88 5.81 5.95 5.63

Р-1 7.68 7.74 7.71 7.60 7.49 7.50 7.58 7.59 7.56 7.55 7.57 7.55 7.59 Svet-

logorsk 7.59 7.56 7.51 7.26 7.66 7.31 7.18 7.18 7.23 7.30 7.28 7.28 7.36

1960-1990 [21] Bal-

tiysk 6.07 5.91 5.47 5.07 5.35 5.66 5.74 5.69 5.79 5.91 5.95 6.02 5.72

1902-2005 [24]

Sq. 36 7.56 7.50 7.43 7.34 7.24 7.19 7.27 7.24 7.29 7.47 7.36 7.43 7.36 Note: The maximums are showed with italics and underlining, the minimums – with italics.

C. Interannual variability It is known that interannual variability of hydro-meteo elements in the Baltic Sea has the cyclic nature [2, 6, 23]. Time trend

analysis of meteo-elements in Baltiysk according to the data in [21] shows that interannual variability of Tw, Tа and eа is distin-guished by significant similarity. Firstly the same periodicities from quasi two years to 11-years are distinguishing (Fig. 3). Sec-ondly the correlation analysis has shown that there is strong connection between Tw and Tа, Tw and eа, Tа and eа (r = 0.92; r = 0.78 and r = 0.83 correspondingly). Thirdly linear trend of these elements is positive. Thus linear trend for Tа is 0.029 °С/year in Baltiysk during 1961-1990 i.e. it is approximately one third more than for Tw – 0.018 °С/year and it is 0.004 hPa/year for eа. For one of the dynamic elements – wind speed module the century trend is calculated with maximum in the middle of XX century and minimums in the beginning of XX and XXI centuries and it is typical not only for our region but also for great part of Euro-pean territory of Russian Federation [26]. At the same time linear trend W is negative and it is -0.048 m/s per year in Baltiysk during 1961-1990. Monitoring data from the D-6 in 2004-2011 confirm the conclusion about continuing decreasing both of aver-age wind speed and its extreme magnitudes since 80-90s of XX century for whole Europe including the South-Eastern Baltic. Average speeds of strong winds 15 m/s have shown a little (-0.04 m/s per year) but stable speed decreasing under sufficient Student's test (2.976) [25]. However it should take into account that the storm winds number has not become less but even a little increase according to the estimations in [14].

The same cyclicity is distinguished for surface water salinity S in Baltiysk but with prevalence of 5-years cycles (Fig. 3). Lin-ear trend of S is negative for Baltiysk during 1959-2000 and it is -0.022 ‰ per year. Such long-term variability of salinity is de-termined first of all by river discharge from Curonian and Vistula lagoons [13, 7].

IV. CONCLUSIONS

1. Analysis of long-time variability of hydro-meteorological elements was carried out on the basis of the time series model of S. Lappo et al [19]. Thus regular seasonal trend (ST), interannual (IV) and annual variability (AV) are distinguished in the initial series.

2. The seasonal trend of all thermo and moisture elements (Tw, Tа and eа, Td) on the water area of Russian part of the South-Eastern Baltic are characterized by annual harmonic (quota qI ≥ 0.96) and are distinguished by high stability in time and space (σ2

ST/ σ2IS ≥ 90 %). Seasonal trend of wind speed (W) is characterized by annual wave contribution variability both in time and

space (qI = 0.65÷0.98; σ2ST/ σ2

IS ≥ 28-67 %). 3. Interannual variability of hydro-meteo elements in the investigation area has the cyclic nature, quasi two years, 5-6, 7-8 and

11-years periodicities are marked off. The analysis of time trend meteo-elements in Baltiysk according to the data in [21] has shown that interannual variability of Tw, Tа and eа is distinguished by significant similarity. The same periodicities from quasi two years to 11-years are distinguishing, there is strong connection between them, r = 0.78÷0.92, linear trends of these elements are positive.

4. The century cyclicity for wind speed in Baltiysk becomes apparent most clear with maximum in the middle of XX century and minimums in the beginning of XX and XXI centuries [11], it is typical not only for our region but also for great part of Eu-ropean territory of Russian Federation [26].

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