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If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water
Henk van Schaik
Bonn22 November 2007
Water and Climate in The Netherlands Water and climate globally
Common grounds
The Netherlands
Below sealevel55% Land / 60% Population 65% National Gross Product
Our common nightmare
Dutch Climate proofing“we will stay”
Research for knowledge to – Inform the public– Build political support: first Chamber motion on climate proofing– Develop adaptation plans
Netherlands case
Generic scenariosDesigned to span a wide rangeof possible climate change,suitable for many applications
Dry summersParticularly dry summer conditions gain additional attention in Dutch climate adaptation policyTailoring
Process of tailoring is important for application in practice. Close multi-disciplinary cooperation is required
Restricted water capacity
In whole area:• restricted discharge capacity• increase wet damage crops
Increasing floods along IJssellake coast
Stronger salinisation by saline seepage
Increase salinization bysaline seepage
Vulnerable sea-defence
Vulnerabilities
Bulbs in dune-area
Prime Minister perspective….
“The climate is changing and we should make our country climate proof. The national government together with science, policy and other stakeholders”
Jan-Peter Balkenende - DutchPrime Minister, november 2005” Science - Policy
interaction
1. Open debate
Not: ‘for and by governments’ or a technocratic problem
The National Adaptation StrategyChoices made in the process...
2. Ongoing, planned, future investments, plans, policies
Not: just new investments and programmes
5. Mainstream in 10 year
Not: blueprint or series of projects for the coming 50 years
4. Adaptation mainly by ‘combining work with work’
Not (yet): megaprojects just for adaptation
3. Innovation parallel to practice
Not: sequential; first research, than policy frames, laws, implementation
Spatial consequences
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Bulb growth in theWieringermeer polder
Inner space area used as extensive grassland and as
resting place for geese
New dynamic nature and more emphasis on recreation
Reservation space for natureon a dynamical coast
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Bulb growth not anymore possible in inner dune area
Extensivation peat grassland because of increasing water level
from 60 up to 20 cm - surface
Costs:
The costs under current climate conditions 1 - 2 billion Euro's per year (~0.2 - 0.4% of the national GDP).
For the coming 50 years, yearly costs about 1.2 - 2.2 billion Euro's, which is ~0.25-0.46% of the national GDP.
RES6485
Water Collection, Tugela Ferry - 07/2002
WATER STRESS and POVERTY
Today’s global water challenges
Billions of people live in absolute poverty More than a billion people lack access to safe water supply and
sanitation 80 % of rural people’s livelihood depend on rainfed agriculture for
subsistence farming. Extreme rainfall variability causing frequent droughts and floods
Climate change comes on top …
MDGs: Reduce by 2015 half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water.
Reduce by half the population without access to basic sanitation by 2015
IWRM plans.
International Water Policy Context
Extreme rainfall variability: the case of Kenya
Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
Case of Ethiopia
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
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60
80
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year
pe
rce
nta
ge
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
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20
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rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
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year
pe
rce
nta
ge
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982-2000
Climate change
IPCC 4’th Assessment Report
Expected Expansion of drought affected areas Higher flood risks Decline of water supply from snow fed; decreasing water
security for 1/6 of the world population Increased coastal flooding related to sea level rise Increased deaths because of floods, storms and
droughts Lower food security and malnutrition
IPCC 2007 Projected rainfall change 2090-99 versus 1980-99
Dec – Feb Jun - Aug
Impact of a drier and more variable climate on GDP growth
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Southern Africa East Africa Sahel Coastal WestAfrica
historic variability
-10% rainfall
-10% rainfall, 50% increased s.d.
Mean T0
± 1 SD
LJM,2002
Threshold Threshold
New Mean
Probability of high extremes
Probability of low extremes
An increase in mean and variance of run off imply a nonlinear increase in the probability of extremes, which requires to adjust design criteria
DECISION FRAMEWORK ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND
CLIMATE CHANGE
• IWRM • Food security• Utilities• Coastal delta’s• Cities• Energy
•Operating rules•Water orders•Water allocation•Demand management
Type of decision Climate Weather
Long Term (10-50 yrs) Medium Term (6-9 months) Short Term (0-10days)
Decadal changes Seasonal Forecasts Real Time
Strategic (policies, regulations, land use, water, development….)
Infrastructure development policiesRegulations
Planning (infrastructures, vulnerabilities, etc.
Infrastructure designs - Water allocations to agriculture-dam operations
Operational (use of climate information)
-dam operations
Assessing vulnerability(Climate atlas)
1. Water resources and ecosystems
2. Water supplies
3. Food security
4. Coastal delta’s
5. Megacities and urban areas
6. Health and sanitation
7. Energy
Reducing vulnerability
– Communicate and use climate information (short, medium and long term) at all levels
– Control water use (leakages etc.) – No regret measures including water storage– Diversify economy: away from rainfed dependence
Generic features
1. Make use of tailored climate information (short, seasonal and long term)
2. Carry out sector and local specific vulnerability assessments to identify hot spots
3. Adaptation 1. In context of development
2. Government, private sector and the public
3. Adapt existing and future policies and plans at national and local levels
4. Communication and Information
5. Innovation (technical, communication, governance etc.)
RES8552
WE NEED MORE THAN JUST LOOKING
AT THE PROBLEM!
mitigate... .. and adapt!Prevent
Thank you !Thank you !www.waterandclimate.orgwww.waterandclimate.org