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If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

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Page 1: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water

Henk van Schaik

Bonn22 November 2007

  

Page 2: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Water and Climate in The Netherlands Water and climate globally

Common grounds

Page 3: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

The Netherlands

Below sealevel55% Land / 60% Population 65% National Gross Product

Page 4: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007
Page 5: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Our common nightmare

Page 6: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Dutch Climate proofing“we will stay”

Research for knowledge to – Inform the public– Build political support: first Chamber motion on climate proofing– Develop adaptation plans

Page 7: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Netherlands case

Generic scenariosDesigned to span a wide rangeof possible climate change,suitable for many applications

Dry summersParticularly dry summer conditions gain additional attention in Dutch climate adaptation policyTailoring

Process of tailoring is important for application in practice. Close multi-disciplinary cooperation is required

Page 8: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Restricted water capacity

In whole area:• restricted discharge capacity• increase wet damage crops

Increasing floods along IJssellake coast

Stronger salinisation by saline seepage

Increase salinization bysaline seepage

Vulnerable sea-defence

Vulnerabilities

Bulbs in dune-area

Page 9: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Prime Minister perspective….

“The climate is changing and we should make our country climate proof. The national government together with science, policy and other stakeholders”

Jan-Peter Balkenende - DutchPrime Minister, november 2005” Science - Policy

interaction

Page 10: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

1. Open debate

Not: ‘for and by governments’ or a technocratic problem

The National Adaptation StrategyChoices made in the process...

2. Ongoing, planned, future investments, plans, policies

Not: just new investments and programmes

5. Mainstream in 10 year

Not: blueprint or series of projects for the coming 50 years

4. Adaptation mainly by ‘combining work with work’

Not (yet): megaprojects just for adaptation

3. Innovation parallel to practice

Not: sequential; first research, than policy frames, laws, implementation

Page 11: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Spatial consequences

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Bulb growth in theWieringermeer polder

Inner space area used as extensive grassland and as

resting place for geese

New dynamic nature and more emphasis on recreation

Reservation space for natureon a dynamical coast

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Bulb growth not anymore possible in inner dune area

Extensivation peat grassland because of increasing water level

from 60 up to 20 cm - surface

Page 12: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Costs:

The costs under current climate conditions 1 - 2 billion Euro's per year (~0.2 - 0.4% of the national GDP).

For the coming 50 years, yearly costs about 1.2 - 2.2 billion Euro's, which is ~0.25-0.46% of the national GDP.

Page 13: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

RES6485

Water Collection, Tugela Ferry - 07/2002

WATER STRESS and POVERTY

Page 14: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Today’s global water challenges

Billions of people live in absolute poverty More than a billion people lack access to safe water supply and

sanitation 80 % of rural people’s livelihood depend on rainfed agriculture for

subsistence farming. Extreme rainfall variability causing frequent droughts and floods

Climate change comes on top …

Fulco Ludwig
I am not sure if we need this slide? people should be familiar with Nile challenges
Page 15: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

MDGs: Reduce by 2015 half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water.

Reduce by half the population without access to basic sanitation by 2015

IWRM plans.

International Water Policy Context

Page 16: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Extreme rainfall variability: the case of Kenya

Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean

60%

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160%

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Page 17: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Case of Ethiopia

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rainfall variation around the mean

GDP growth

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rainfall variation around the mean

GDP growth

Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982-2000

Page 18: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Climate change

Page 19: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

IPCC 4’th Assessment Report

Expected Expansion of drought affected areas Higher flood risks Decline of water supply from snow fed; decreasing water

security for 1/6 of the world population Increased coastal flooding related to sea level rise Increased deaths because of floods, storms and

droughts Lower food security and malnutrition

Page 20: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

IPCC 2007 Projected rainfall change 2090-99 versus 1980-99

Dec – Feb Jun - Aug

Page 21: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Impact of a drier and more variable climate on GDP growth

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Southern Africa East Africa Sahel Coastal WestAfrica

historic variability

-10% rainfall

-10% rainfall, 50% increased s.d.

Page 22: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Mean T0

± 1 SD

LJM,2002

Threshold Threshold

New Mean

Probability of high extremes

Probability of low extremes

An increase in mean and variance of run off imply a nonlinear increase in the probability of extremes, which requires to adjust design criteria

Page 23: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

DECISION FRAMEWORK ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND

CLIMATE CHANGE

• IWRM • Food security• Utilities• Coastal delta’s• Cities• Energy

•Operating rules•Water orders•Water allocation•Demand management

Type of decision Climate Weather

Long Term (10-50 yrs) Medium Term (6-9 months) Short Term (0-10days)

Decadal changes Seasonal Forecasts Real Time

Strategic (policies, regulations, land use, water, development….)

Infrastructure development policiesRegulations

Planning (infrastructures, vulnerabilities, etc.

Infrastructure designs - Water allocations to agriculture-dam operations

Operational (use of climate information)

-dam operations

Page 24: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Assessing vulnerability(Climate atlas)

1. Water resources and ecosystems

2. Water supplies

3. Food security

4. Coastal delta’s

5. Megacities and urban areas

6. Health and sanitation

7. Energy

Page 25: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Reducing vulnerability

– Communicate and use climate information (short, medium and long term) at all levels

– Control water use (leakages etc.) – No regret measures including water storage– Diversify economy: away from rainfed dependence

Page 26: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Generic features

1. Make use of tailored climate information (short, seasonal and long term)

2. Carry out sector and local specific vulnerability assessments to identify hot spots

3. Adaptation 1. In context of development

2. Government, private sector and the public

3. Adapt existing and future policies and plans at national and local levels

4. Communication and Information

5. Innovation (technical, communication, governance etc.)

Page 27: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

RES8552

WE NEED MORE THAN JUST LOOKING

AT THE PROBLEM!

Page 28: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

mitigate... .. and adapt!Prevent

Page 29: If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

Thank you !Thank you !www.waterandclimate.orgwww.waterandclimate.org