Impact Based Warning Experiment – Year 3

Severe Weather Season 2014ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO808 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT * AT 806 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CREVE COEUR...BRIDGETON...OLIVETTE...ST. ANN...OVERLAND...LAMBERT FIELD...WOODSON TERRACE...UNIVERSITY CITY...ST. JOHN...HAZELWOOD... BEL-RIDGE...BERKELEY...KINLOCH...NORMANDY...COOL VALLEY... HILLSDALE...FLORISSANT...NORTHWOODS...FERGUSON AND DELLWOOD. THIS WARNING INCLUDES CONFLUENCE STATE PARK...FIRST MISSOURI STATECAPITOL HISTORIC SITE AND HORSESHOE LAKE STATE PARK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLYTORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVETO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOIDWINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THECLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3900 8998 3872 8990 3863 9053 3884 9056TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 253DEG 41KT 3876 9050 TORNADO...OBSERVEDTORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLEHAIL...<.75IN $$ GLASS

What’s New In 2014?Experiment has been expanded…

- Tulsa- Norman/OKC- Blacksburg- Lubbock- San Angelo- Great Falls- Glasgow- Riverton- Jackson

What’s New In 2014?

Some minor wording changes …impacts of “considerable” and “catastrophic” are

now the same

You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris will be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes…businesses and vehicles is likely and complete destruction possible.

What’s New In 2014?

Pathcasts will be utilized whenever possible, i.e.:

Biggest operational change:

* The storm will be near:Centralia at 645 pmMexico at 715 pm

(Other small towns listed beneath the pathcast)

What’s New In 2014?Pathcast Considerations:

Software logic uses a fairly “broad brush” to assemble city list

- List of towns will not be “complete” (max # 15)- Arrival times (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) may change

between products - List of towns may change between products - Cannot take into account non-linear motions

A Quick Review…

The impact based warning demonstration is a change to the traditional tornado warning system by:

1 - the introduction of a “threat tier” through the use of tags and,

2 - creating more concise and effective wording that communicates risk and impacts commensurate with that threat.

It is NOT about forecasting EF-scale!!!

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO808 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT * AT 806 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CREVE COEUR...BRIDGETON...OLIVETTE...ST. ANN...OVERLAND...LAMBERT FIELD...WOODSON TERRACE...UNIVERSITY CITY...ST. JOHN...HAZELWOOD... BEL-RIDGE...BERKELEY...KINLOCH...NORMANDY...COOL VALLEY... HILLSDALE...FLORISSANT...NORTHWOODS...FERGUSON AND DELLWOOD. THIS WARNING INCLUDES CONFLUENCE STATE PARK...FIRST MISSOURI STATECAPITOL HISTORIC SITE AND HORSESHOE LAKE STATE PARK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLYTORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVETO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOIDWINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THECLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3900 8998 3872 8990 3863 9053 3884 9056TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 253DEG 41KT 3876 9050 TORNADO...OBSERVEDTORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLEHAIL...<.75IN $$ GLASS

 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR240 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN SEARCY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS... EASTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 315 AM CDT * AT 237 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF JASPER. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE... SAINT JOE... POINT PETER... PIERCETOWN... EULA... CARVER... YARDELLE... WOOLUM RECREATION AREA... WAYTON... VENDOR... SNOWBALL... PINDALL... PARTHENON... MT JUDEA... HASTY... DEER... CROSSROAD... COWELL... BASS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ASTURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3611 9294 3604 9281 3592 9274 3576 9324 3592 9333TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 244DEG 35KT 3588 9318 $$ 51

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO808 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 806 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CREVE COEUR...BRIDGETON...OLIVETTE...ST. ANN...OVERLAND...LAMBERT FIELD...WOODSON TERRACE...UNIVERSITY CITY...ST. JOHN...HAZELWOOD... BEL-RIDGE...BERKELEY...KINLOCH...NORMANDY...COOL VALLEY... HILLSDALE...FLORISSANT...NORTHWOODS...FERGUSON AND DELLWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLYTORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVETO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOIDWINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THECLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 8998 3872 8990 3863 9053 3884 9056TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 253DEG 41KT 3876 9050

TORNADO...OBSERVEDTORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLEHAIL...<.75IN

$$

GLASS

Possible Tornado Tags

Wording of IMPACT section tied to damage threat tag

Remember…this format/tags are used in follow-up severe weather statements (SVS)

SVS can be used to change the tornado tags (radar vs. observed) and damage threat tags (none, “considerable”, catastrophic”) at any

time

“Enhanced” Severe Thunderstorm Warnings(storms with winds ≥ 80 mph and/or

hail ≥ 2.75” (baseball))

- EAS Activation Requested- “This is a particularly dangerous storm” / enhanced impact wording- Enhanced Thunderstorm Warnings are scheduled to be transmitted via WEA in the future (Date TDB)

On final point….

The impact based warning demonstration should NOT be used to minimize the danger

from an “base” tornado warning, but rather to highlight and place emphasize on the storms

that pose the greatest danger.

Many/most times, a “base” tornado warning will precede an “enhanced” tornado warning.

IBW Training Material

http://www.weather.gov/impacts