Impact of the spectrum management on regional mobile broadband development: challenge and opportunities

Wladimir BocquetSenior Director

Global Spectrum Policy GSM Association

ITU Arab Regional Development, 17ITU Arab Regional Development, 17thth September 2012 September 2012

What’s at stake for mobile industry?

Data Explosion: Rapid changes in mobile service provision such as usage trends and number of important social and behavioural changes have led to previously unpredicted patterns of data consumption amongst mobile users. Mobile data traffic is still expected to significantly increase in the coming five years

Spectrum Resource: Spectrum is the lifeblood of the mobile industry. The amount of spectrum made available and the regulatory conditions on which it is made available fundamentally drive the cost, range and availability of mobile services. Spectrum is a scarce resource and public State property

– Vital input to many industries– Radio waves do not stop at national borders– cross border issues have a significant role in spectrum management

Spectrum Policy: Choosing the appropriate spectrum policy licensing framework to facilitate the large investments required in rolling out networks and introducing updated technologies and new services

Agenda

Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband

Spectrum Management for Mobile Broadband

Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband

Mobile global data traffic

The growing adoption of data services has become the major source of traffic since 2010

On the Analysis Masson forecasts , mobile traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR (Compound annual growth rate) of 42% to reach 28 000 PB per year in 2015.

Source: ITU-R M.2243 Report

Estimates data traffic based on multiple sources

Mobile global data traffic

The ITU-R M. 2243 Report concludes

“The current data traffic (in year 2010) is more than 5 times greater than some of the estimates for Report ITU-R M. 2072 (WRC-07). “

“Actual traffic being experienced by some operators today (year 2011) is even greater than some of the 2020 forecasts given in Report ITU-R M.2072.[…].”

Source: ITU-R M. 2243 Report

Comparison of ITU-R M.2072 with Current Data

This Report clearly indicates that the ITU-R should consider this increasing mobile broadband traffic demand.”

Factors impacting traffic forecastDiversity of devices

Tablet generates 500 times as much data traffic as a basic mobile phone

Smartphones generate, on average, around 50 times more data per month than a basic phone

Average modem/dongle use, with laptop users generating as much as 1300 times that of a “standard” 3G phone

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M2M ITU-R M.2072 forecast

Mobile traffic (PB per year) by device type

Source: ITU, Analysys Mason

Mobile data usage is heavily device-dependent

Factors impacting traffic forecastNumber of devices

2020

12 Billion Mobile Connected Devices2011

6 Billion Mobile Connected Devices

2020

24 Billion Total Connected Devices2011

9 Billion Total Connected Devices

Source: Machina

Mobile world has reached another milestone with Internet becoming increasingly mobile. Ericsson, based on industry information, estimates that the number of mobile subscription will reach 9 billion end of 2017

Spectrum is a key resource/element for Mobile Broadband development

Licensing to support Mobile Broadband

GSMA has commissioned a report that takes an in-depth look at spectrum licensing best practices and real-world case studies

Licensing to support the mobile broadband revolution http://www.gsma.com/spectrum/licensing-to-support-the-mobile-broadband-revolution-report/

Meeting the growing demand Freeing up spectrum resources

Identifying spectrum rights allowing provision of additional spectrum capacity

Enabling flexible/technology neutral use of spectrum (e.g UMTS/LTE at 900/1800 MHz)

Publishing a road map of the planned release of additional spectrum bands – to maximise overall benefits from the use of spectrum taking into

account the benefits of international harmonisation – aligning spectrum rights with the internationally harmonised mobile

spectrum bands Removing service and technology restrictions in existing mobile spectrum

usage rights – to enable operators to choose when to deploy mobile technologies that

can technically co-exist. – However, Operators themselves are likely to be best placed to

determine the speed of migration particularly recognising that 2G services are likely to remain important for the next 5 to 10 years.

Meeting the growing demand Harmonisation

Leverage from the existing deployment and maximise the economy of scale

Facilitate innovation and roaming

Reduce the device costs by – limiting the complexity of

the radio design and the cost of mobile hardware

– helping managing cross-border interference

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Crucial to secure the same allocation and band plan to support harmonisation

Maximise the harmonisation Digital Dividend: 790 – 862 MHz

Support the following band plan with 5MHz block size for LTE technology

Favour contiguous 2x10 MHz per operator to fully leverage on Mobile Broadband technology

Maximise the harmonisation Leverage on the economy of scale (facilitate the access) Facilitate the cross-border coordination

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Maximise the harmonisation 2.6 GHz band: 2500 – 2690 MHz

Fixed vs. flexible band plans– Adopting a fixed band plan is best and lead to global

harmonization in the use of the band– Clear from both prior auctions and operator announcements that

the ITU Option 1 band plan is preferred

In addition,– The Arab states markets should preferably adopt global band

plans– The adoption of ITU Option 1 for 2.6 GHz will yield large

economies of scale in both network equipment and handsets

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FDD uplink FDD downlinkTDD

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Meeting the growing demand Spectrum & Infrastructure Sharing Aspects

Regulatory framework should facilitate operator’s engagement in voluntary infrastructure and/or spectrum sharing.

Regulatory framework should remove restrictions on operators negotiating and concluding agreements governed by private law on sharing in bands dedicated to Mobile Broadband.

Meeting the growing demand Licensing framework to support investment

Stability of the overall licensing framework facilitates investment

announcing in advance a long term plan for reform of the spectrum and operating licensing framework

facilitating international harmonisation so that equipment and devices use the same frequency bands to support international roaming and enable the realisation of scale economies in manufacture

publicly setting out the criteria and process to be followed in licensing decisions and including public written consultation in advance of key decisions being made

Meeting the growing demand Assignment and renewal of licenses

Importance to set out approach to licence renewal in advance of the expiry of the licence

At least 2 to 4 years in advance

Avoid network investment being postponed

Publish the criteria to be used to assess renewal as well as the terms and conditions to be applied to the renewed licence

Study on socio-economic benefits Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

GSMA performed a study case on the benefit to release internationally harmonised spectrum band plans at 2.6GHz and at 800MHz.

Highlight considerable socio-economic benefits from the release of harmonised spectrum for use by mobile operators to deliver next-generation mobile broadband service

Key opportunity – broadband improves GDP and job growth…..

For the full report, please visit:

www.gsma.com/spectrum/spectrum-resources/spectrum-research/socio-economic\_benefit_of_allocating_harmonised_spectrum_in_Kingdom_of_Saudi_Arabia

Socio-economic benefitAllocating harmonised mobile broadband spectrum in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (1/3)

A delay in spectrum assignment of 5 years would reduce the expected number of mobile broadband subscribers to 20 million by 2020 and to 47.5 million by 2025.

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Additional mobile broadband subscriberswith 2013 release

Additional mobile broadband subscriberswith 2018 release

Mobile broadband subscribers with current3G spectrum only

Impact on Mobile Broadband subscriber

Socio-economic benefitAllocating harmonised mobile broadband spectrum in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (2/3)

In 2020, the additional GDP resulting from enhanced growth in mobile broadband subscriptions would amount to SAR52.4 billion, if spectrum is released by 2013. A five-year delay in assigning the spectrum would reduce this gain to SAR9.3 billion.

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Additional GDP with spectrumrelease in 2013

Additional GDP with spectrumrelease in 2018

The impact of spectrum release on GDP in KSA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

Impact on GDP (Gross domestic product) growth

Socio-economic benefitAllocating harmonised mobile broadband spectrum in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (3/3)

In 2020, the additional employment resulting from enhanced growth in mobile broadband subscriptions would amount to 424 000 jobs, if spectrum is released by 2013. A delay in spectrum assign of five years would reduce this gain to 75 000.

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Additional employment(2013 spectrum release)

Additional employment(2018 spectrum release)

The impact of spectrum release on employment in KSA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

Impact on job growth

Summary Meeting the growth in demand for mobile services

Data demand continues to grow1. Additional spectrum being made available and ensuring that the

spectrum goes to the use and users which will maximise its benefits to society

2. Facilitating international harmonisation to support roaming and enable scale economies to lower the cost of equipment

Licensing issues are critical1. Removing unnecessary restrictions on the use of spectrum including

allowing for new Mobile Broadband technologies

2. Ensuring a fair and predictable licensing environment facilitates the investments required to take full advantage of a country’s spectrum resources