Africa Carbon Exchange (ACX) workshop,

KEFRI, 12-16 November 2012

Impacts of climate change

and what this means today

and in the future

21st Century climate

challenge

• Four distinctive characteristics:

– It is cumulative

– The effects are irreversible

– Large time lags – today’s emissions are

tomorrow’s problems

– It is global

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Climate change is today a

global financial challenge

• Since 2009, governments broadly agree that it will be costly to

solve climate change

• By 2020, US$100bn needed annually for investments in climate

mitigation and adaptation (“Copenhagen Accord”)

• Governments in developed countries to play a catalytic role,

but private sector in developed countries to contribute a

significant portion of the US$100bn

• Markets, including carbon markets, are key instruments for

mobilization of private capital for climate-friendly investments

• Strong need for innovative finance at scale to meet the

climate challenge

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Framing climate change

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• What are the potential IMPACTS of the Climate Changes

• Are we ready for the Challenges posed by the IMPACTS

1.Global Warming is unequivocal

and primarily human induced

- Global temperature has increased

over the past 50 years.

- This observed increase is due

primarily to human-induced emissions

of heat-trapping gases.

2. Climate Changes are underway in Africa

and are projected to grow

These include:

- Increases in heavy downpours

- Rising temperature

- Rising sea level

- Rapidly retreating glaciers

- Thawing permafrost

- Lengthening growing seasons

- Lengthening ice-free seasons etc

3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase

- Climate changes are already affecting water, energy,

transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health.

4. Climate Change will stress water resources

- Drought is important in many regions,

- Floods and water quality problems - likely to be amplified by climate

change in most regions.

5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged

- Many crops show positive responses to elevated carbon dioxide

and low levels of warming. But higher levels of warming often

negatively affect growth and yields.

- Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will

pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production.

6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise and storm surge

• Increasing risk of erosion and flooding

• Energy and transportation infrastructure - very likely to be

adversely affected.

7. Risks to human health will increase

• Related to increasing heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air

quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by

insects and rodents.

• Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for

negative impacts.

8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses

• Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth,

overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic,

and environmental stresses

9. Thresholds will be crossed leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems

These thresholds determine, for example:

- the presence of sea ice and permafrost,

- the survival of species, from fish to insect pests

10. Future climate and its impacts depends on

choices made today

• The amount and rate of future climate change depend

primarily on current and future human-caused emissions

• Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming,

and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable.

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Impacts of Climate Change

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Impacts of Climate Change

cont…

• By 2080, arid and semi-arid land in Africa could

increase by 5-8% (60-90 million hectares).

• Crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as 90%

by 2100, with small-scale farms being the most

affected.

• It is estimated that by 2100, parts of the sub-Sahara

Africa will likely experience agricultural losses of

between 2 and 7% of the GDP

• Productivity of rivers will increase in the short term

but will decrease in the long term

• Rangeland productivity will decrease and hence

livestock will be affected.

• The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to be between 75-250 million people by 2020 and 350-600 million people by the 2050.

• A 2°C temperature increase could lead to 0.4 –1.8 billion more people at risk of water stress.

• Reduced rainfall will lead to reduction in Groundwater availability particularly in the UPPER AQUIFER from which most of the water supply for Africa is withdrawn

• Reduced rainfall will lead to reduced freshwater availability

• Projected sea level rise would increase

flooding, particularly on the coasts of

eastern Africa;

• Sea level rise will likely increase the high

socioeconomic and physical vulnerability

of coastal cities.

• The cost of adaptation to sea level rise

could amount to at least 5-10% of GDP.

• A 5-7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria distribution is projected, with little increase in the latitudinal extent of the disease by 2100.

• It is estimated that by the 2080s an additional 80 million people will likely be at risk of malaria.

WE MUST FACE THE CHALLENGE

In two ways

1. Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas

Emissions and Concentrations into

the Atmosphere

2. Adaptation to the Impacts of

Climate Change

On mitigation, there is need for the

developed countries to demonstrate

leadership by cutting greenhouse gas

emissions by at least 80% of 1990 levels by

2050 and Developing countries cut

emissions by 20% of 1990 levels by 2050.

This can be achived by a mix of carbon

taxation, more stringent cap-and-trade

programmes, energy regulation, and

international cooperation on financing for low-carbon technology transfer.

• Rural electrification using solar generators

and other alternatives;

• Greenhouse Gas Abatement using

Improved Cooking Stoves to reduce fuel

wood consumption

• Reducing CO2 emissions from organic

waste combustion through composting

• Fuel Switching through Replacement of

fuel wood

• Carbon sequestration through forest

management

• Integrating climate policies in broader development policies

• Regulations and standards

• Taxes and charges

• Tradable permits

• Financial incentives

• Voluntary agreements

• Information instruments

• Research and development

Policies are available to governments to realise mitigation of climate change

• Africa has developed several copings strategies to

adapt to current climate variability but these will be

inadequate to adapt to climate change;

• A range of factors including wealth, technology,

education, information, skills, infrastructure, access

to resources, and various psychological factors

and management capabilities determine the

adaptive capacity of a nation or continent.

• Africa is very poor in most of these factors;

HENCE, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF AFRICA IS VERY LOW

Rehabilitation of natural coastal buffers such as mangroves and coral reefs and provision of alternate livelihood options to relieve the root causes of destruction of coastal buffers.

Improve risk and disaster management capacity

Increase institutional capacity to implement integrated coastal zone management, including climate change effects on productive coastal systems, in particular in the water, fisheries and coastal agriculture sectors.

Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africa

Implementation of measures at community level– Water harvesting techniques

– Introduction of drought resistant varieties of local crops

– Facilitation of food banks– Promotion of irrigation

Implementation of demonstration projects to improve capacity and awareness for sustainable water management including:– Run-off dikes to capture rainfall– Promotion of water efficient technologies– Introduction and dissemination of „drip

irrigation‟ techniques

Suggested Adaptation Activities in Africa

15 September

2006

IEF climate conference 30

Future Climate Regime needs

Global Solidarity to Work• TARGET/DATE: max. +2°C = -70% GHG globally by 2050

• FAIR /EFFECTIVE: Need global participation through national targets, consistent with the global limit

• MARKET/FISCAL: Need new financial mechanisms to steer $17 Trillion of energy investments into low carbon solutions

• MAINSTREAMING: Climate risks must be factored into policy and investment decisions - active risk mitigation

IF YOU ARE NOT PART OF THE SOLUTION YOU ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM!

• Need both MITIGATION and ADAPTATION on unprecedented level – real urgency! We have 10-15 years, at best, to create a working regime, to break the current trend

The development challenge

• It is widely recognized and accepted that in Africa, climate

change will hamper the ability of Africa to adequately

address:

– rapid onset-disaster events

– Widening energy access

– water availability

– food security

– public health

– migration

• Adaptation to climate change is a matter of survival for most

Africans

Recently Africa‟s growth

has been widespread…

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560 million sub-Saharan Africans lack access to electricity

..and it needs energy to keep growing..

But

• The quality of growth matters

• Moving towards low carbon and resilient pathway is paramount

– For increasing demand for services and meeting

unmet demand

– Avoid lock-into carbon intensive options

• In some ways, Africa in an advantageous position

– starting from a low base and has the resources

Any difficult journey requires innovation

What is the CIC?

• World Bank-infoDev initiative, funded by UK Aid and DANIDA

• Will provide incubation, capacity building services and

financing to Kenyan SMEs developing climate mitigation

and adaptation solutions

• First in a series of CICs that infoDev is launching globally

• GVEP International, PwC, Strathmore University and KIRDI are

the lead partners in a consortium contracted by infoDev to

establish and operate the CIC

• Supporting consortium partners are UNIDO, Adelphi, KIPPRA,

LTS International, Netwas, Technoserve and Oxford Energy

Associates

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Why CIC? Why now?

Several challenges underscore the need to stimulate climate innovation

and the growth of clean tech industries in Kenya:

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Only 14-16% of Kenyan households are connected to the grid, a

significant contributor to the energy divide in the country

Traditional biomass-based fuels for cooking and heating are

currently the most important source of primary energy in Kenya with

wood fuel accounting for 68% of total consumption

Access to safe water is estimated at 60% in urban areas and 40% in

rural areas, while sewerage systems cover only 14% of the population

Agriculture is the key economic activity in Kenya, contributing 80% of

formal employment and 26% of GDP, yet is highly constrained by low

and erratic rainfall

Mission

CIC Mission

To provide an integrated set of services, activities

and programmes that empowers Kenyan

entrepreneurs to deliver innovative climate

technology solutions

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CIC core goals

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Fill market gaps by:

• Providing access to flexible investment mechanisms that support

enterprises at varying levels of innovation and scale

• Building innovation capacity through the delivery of advice,

assistance and educational products

• Enabling collaboration and developing policies that support an

innovation ecosystem in East Africa

• Identifying and unlocking new opportunities through access to

information and market intelligence

• Facilitating access to facilities that support rapid technology

design, adaptation, proto-typing, testing and manufacture

CIC activities

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• Provide mentoring and specialised training programmes

• Access to toolkits, templates and pre-packaged supportAdvisory

services

Financing

Access to

facilities

Enabling

ecosystem

Access to

information

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3

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• Provide Proof of Concept grants

• Facilitate access to other sources of financing

• Provide access to facilities that house incubatees and

support technology design, adaptation, prototyping, etc

• Work with GoK to develop Kenyan clean tech policies

• Coordinate technology transfer and collaborative R&D

• Gather, package and disseminate information on

technologies, financing and local markets

Expected outcomes

Combined suite of financing and services make the CIC the “go to”

institution for emerging climate solutions in Kenya

CIC expected to deliver a mix of social economic and

environmental benefits including:

• Jobs created

• Companies launched

• Reduction of CO2 emissions

• Greater climate resiliency

• Access to clean energy and water

• Strengthened technology transfer and local innovation

capacity

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Supporting key GoK policy

initiatives

• The CIC was developed in close consultation with GoK

ministries and officials, primarily the Climate Change

Coordination Unit in the Prime Minister‟s Office and the Ministry

of Environment

• The CIC will help Kenya achieve numerous economic and

policy objectives including:

– Kenya Vision 2030 (to become a middle-income country)

– Greening Kenya (to directly support low carbon growth

through green initiatives)

– The National Climate Change Response Strategy (which

specifically advocates innovation centers)

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Who can participate?

The CIC is seeking a range of partners:

• Entrepreneurs and SMEs: the CIC seeks to support SMEs and

entrepreneurs developing innovative energy, water and agriculture

solutions

• Financial institutions: the CIC seeks to partner with investors, banks

and financial community to improve access to financing and

increase the supply of capital.

• Governments: the CIC aims to work with policymakers to support the

adoption of clean technology in Kenya.

• Private sector: the CIC aims to facilitate collaboration between its

clients and local and international businesses as suppliers, distributors,

partners, licensees or licensors, investors or acquirers.

• Academia: the CIC seeks forge linkages between innovators and

academia to generate valuable knowledge and technologies

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