Improving Migration and Population Statistics: Mid-Year Estimates

Office for National Statistics Centre for Demography

Agenda

1. Introductions and Objectives of Meeting 11:00

2. Local Authority presentations 11:15

3. Lunch 12:15

4. Summary of Migration Statistics Improvement 12:45Programme - improvements to methods so far

5. Plans for phase two of the Migration Statistics 13:00Improvement Programme

6. Discussion 13:45

7. Close 14:30

Objectives

• To contribute to the aim of the cross-government programme to improve migration statistics with particular emphasis on local area migration statistics

• To provide local authority users with an opportunity to comment on the improved estimates

• To discuss plans for phase two of the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

• To enable more effective user consultation

Migration Statistics Improvement Programme – Phase 1

Nigel Swier

ONS Centre for Demography

Overview

• Background to the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (MSIP)

• MSIP Phase 1

• Improvements affecting LA estimates

• QA & User engagement

• Summary

The Challenge

• No system of compulsory migration registration

• Rapid changes in levels and distribution

• Increasingly complex patterns

• Estimates required at local authority (LA), regional and national levels

Efforts to improve migration statistics

• The 2001 ‘Census gap’• ONS IMPS Programme (2003)

– LA Case Studies– The 2007 improvements package

• Major Reviews (2006-2008)– Inter-departmental Task Force on Migration Statistics– TSC Report on ‘Counting the Population’

• Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (2008)– Cross government programme– Led by National Statistician with Ministerial Group

MSIP: Phase 1

• Improved cross-government reporting• Development and access to administrative

data sources (DWP, HESA, DSCF)• Improvements to survey sources (IPS, IHS)• New products:

– Short-term migration estimates– Migration Indicators– Quarterly IPS estimates

• Improvements to LA estimates for the next 3 year finance settlement

Improvements affecting LA estimates

• Replacement of 2001 Census distribution to estimate immigration to LA level with a modelling approach incorporating a wide range of data sources

• Methodology for distributing emigration to LA level made more robust and consistent with immigration modelling

• Data from Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) used to improve internal migration estimates by adjusting for uncaptured student migration

Distribution of impact across all LAs 2002 to 2008

Camden has been excluded from this chart

02

04

06

08

0N

umb

er o

f Loc

al A

utho

ritie

s

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4Percentage Impact

QA & User engagement

• ONS Internal Review Groups

• Local Insight Reference Panels

• Expert Peer Review Group

• 2009 Roadshows (June & December)

• User Engagement (30 Nov 2009 to 18 January 2010)

Issues raised during user engagement

• Student adjustment assumptions

• Data used in the international migration models

• Use of intermediate geographies

• International migration regional totals

• Comparisons with other data sources

Summary

• Migration has always been difficult to measure accurately and is becoming even more difficult

• The remit of the MSIP is to improve migration statistics in the broadest sense

• The latest LA estimates are the best possible that could have been produced (although ONS acknowledge they are not perfect)

• Phase 1 has delivered other improvements• Phase 1 work on administrative sources

provides a platform for further improvements in Phase 2

Migration Statistics Improvement Programme – Plans for Phase 2

Ben Humberstone

ONS Centre for Demography

Phase 2 Workstreams

Admin Sources

E-borders

Methods

Quality

User Engagement

Admin Sources Workstream

• Key deliverable – plausibility range and contingency adjustment strategy

• Quality assessment of admin sources

• Assessment of long/short term migrants

• Demographic analysisAge

Pop

Local Authority X

Contingency Adjustment

Methods Workstream

• Key deliverable – improved regional/local authority distribution of long and short term migrants

• Utilising admin sources to distribute migrants estimated by IPS (national/regional level)

• Solving the ‘intermediate geography’ issue.

IPS Estimate

Children - School Census

Workers - Lifetime Longitudinal DB (L2), Migrant Worker Scan,

Students - Higher Ed Stats Auth

General - Flag 4 Patient Register,

E-Borders Workstream

• Key deliverable – Improved international migration estimates

• Short term – looking for improvements to weighting of IPS and ‘lead indicators’ for patterns of migration

• Medium/long term – development of travel history analysis leading to direct estimation of migration(?)

Other Work

• Quality key deliverable – measurement of uncertainty around pop ests at LA level, builds on ‘plausibility ranges’

• Ongoing user engagement – • ‘Roadshows’ in the autumn after the MSIP Programme

Board• Quarterly updates and research reports

• Further work on student moves utilising microdata

Dependencies

• 2011 Census • Demographic Quality Assurance• Measures of long and short term migrants possible for

the first time• Local Authority engagement

• Beyond 2011 Project• Looking at what might come after the 2011 Census• Assessing the feasibility of a range of options

• Comprehensive Spending Review

Next Steps

• Review plans for Phase 2 in the light of today’s meeting

• Develop detailed plans for submission to the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme Board in September

• MSIP Phase 2 Roadshows in the autumn• Delivery of improved methods• Revisions to population estimates?• 2011 Census!

Questions?

Discussion

• To what extent do the plans outlined for Phase 2 address the concerns raised in the first session?

• Has anything been overlooked in the plans?• How best can we keep you informed?

Time

Migrant Journey

Apply for a visa (non EEA)

Leave UK

Start work/course

Arrive in UK

HESA

E-borders

Patient Register

School Census

NIRS (Migrant Worker Scan)

Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study

Lifetime Labour Market Database

Electoral Register

Register with GP

Dependents start school

PBS

Election – register to vote

E-borders

Activities

Admin Sources

Move within UK

Change GP

The migrant journey and administrative sources

Pha

se 1

del

iver

y

Improvements to administrative sources

Development of methods (linking)

e-Borders specification e-Borders methods

e-Borders statistical delivery

Census Results Understanding Census results

Further development

May 2010 2011 2012 2013

Revisions Rebased estimates

Improved estimates and products

Good Census QA

Use of best sources

Minimal gap

Fut

ure

pop

ulat

ion

est

imat

e s

yste

ms

TimelineW

hat

do

we

get?

Context - Change

UK Components of Change, mid-1998 to mid-2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Thousands

Net migration

Natural change