Infrastructure constraints in Europe · London Heathrow LHR 78,0 3,0% 238,1 0,3% Paris CDG CDG 69,5 5,4% 221,3 0,7% ... (i.e. 3rd runway in LHR) and not always possible (AMS) •

5-6 June, 2018

Share your thoughts #CAPASummit

Infrastructure constraints in EuropeRafał Milczarski

CEO of LOT Polish Airlines

Sydney, June 06, 2018

LOT Polish Airlines – Keynote CEO Presentation

5-6 June, 2018


THE BUSSIEST EUROPEAN AIRPORTS DO NOT ACHIEVE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT GROWTHS

TOP 10 European airports

Passengers[million]

Scheduled departures ['000]

Airport Code 2017 vs. 2016 2017 vs.

2016London Heathrow LHR 78,0 3,0% 238,1 0,3%

Paris CDG CDG 69,5 5,4% 221,3 0,7%Amsterdam AMS 68,5 7,7% 233,1 4,9%

Frankfurt FRA 64,5 6,1% 223,4 2,7%Istanbul Atatürk IST 63,7 6,0% 214,5 -3,1%

Madrid MAD 53,4 5,9% 180,1 1,9%Barcelona BCN 47,3 7,1% 151,2 5,3%

London Gatwick LGW 45,6 5,7% 139,7 2,3%Munich MUC 44,6 5,5% 190,9 2,4%

Rome Fiumicino FCO 41,3 -1,1% 146,0 -4,9%

Sum of Top10 European 576,3 5,2% 1938,2 1,2%TOTAL Europe 2133,8 8,3% 8309,4 3,6%

• Scarce infrastructure capacity in Europe. The demand increases faster than the supply.

• Contstraints of current infrastructuredevelopment

• Adaptation to growth is expensive (i.e. 3rd runway in LHR) and not always possible (AMS)

• Huge reconstruction costs of keyEuropean hubs causes industry loosing it’s competitiveness

Sources: anna.aero, Diio MI

5-6 June, 2018


CAPACITY WILL BE AMONG THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES

Ø 204 slot coordinated airports globally. (43% of global air traffic1). Over a half of the coordinated airports are located in Europe.

Ø +50% increase in fligths expected by 2035 compared to 2012. Airports’ capacity to increase by only +17% (Source – Eurocontrol, 2013)

Ø Planned capacity dropped by more than half after the 2008 economic crisis. 20 airports will be running at capacity (compared to only 3 in 2012), resulting increased delays.

Ø Eurocontrol estimates that 12% of demand will be unaccommodated, meaning up to 120 million passengers unable to fly or 1.9 million flights not operated

1) http://www.iata.org/policy/slots/Pages/index.aspx; Worldwide Slot Guidelines (WSG) - Annex 11.6 2) Challenges of Growth 2013, Eurocontrol

5-6 June, 2018


AIRSPACE CONGESTION – ASYMMETRIC FLOW DISTRIBUTION

• All Europe’s main hubs are located in old15 EU countries

• Sky over CEE has potential to accomodategrowing traffic

• Central & Eastern European (CEE) countries with it’s 180 mln inhabitantsrepresents growing customer’s base

• CEE deserves a transportation hub whichwill take the load off the existing Western hub system.

• Greenfield project may match bestdevelopments in it’s class

Sources: Fligthradar24.com

5-6 June, 2018


THE FUTURE GROWTH IN EUROPE WILL STAY IN CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Sources: eurocontrol.int

Central & Eastern Europe – focus of LOT activities

5-6 June, 2018



Sources: eurocontrol.int

5-6 June, 2018



Passengers [million]

Scheduled departures ['000]

Airport Code 2017 vs. 2016 2017 vs.

2016London Heathrow LHR 78,0 3,0% 238,1 0,35%

Paris CDG CDG 69,5 5,4% 221,3 0,66%Amsterdam AMS 68,5 7,7% 233,1 4,89%

Frankfurt FRA 64,5 6,1% 223,4 2,73%Istanbul Atatürk IST 63,7 6,0% 214,5 -3,11%

Madrid MAD 53,4 5,9% 180,1 1,93%Barcelona BCN 47,3 7,1% 151,2 5,26%

London Gatwick LGW 45,6 5,7% 139,7 2,31%Munich MUC 44,6 5,5% 190,9 2,39%

Rome Fiumicino FCO 41,3 -1,1% 146,0 -4,88%

Sum of Top10 European 576,3 5,2% 1938,2 1,21%TOTAL Europe 2133,8 8,3% 8309,4 3,63%

Sum of Top5 CEE airports* 67,6 18,7% 270,2 10,95%CEE countries** excl. Russia 159,4 16,3% 633,3 11,11%

CEE countries** 290,1 16,1% 1122,4 10,39%

• Significant increase of CEE’s traffic over the last few years

• Propensity to fly in CEE considerably lower (1:3) than in WE, growing at a quicker pace.

• Annual average growth of movements exceeded +10% in 2017, compared to +3,6% of European average

• The major airports in the region keep the pace of the growth with the smaller ones

Sources: anna.aero, Diio MI

* Warsaw WAW, Prague PRG, Budapest BUD, Bucharest OTP , Kiev KBP** 20 countries: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

5-6 June, 2018


Ø The concept of the Central Transport Hub (CTH) – Solidarity Airport is in line with the objectives of the European Aviation Strategy.

Ø A greenfield construction of high capacity, like CTH, will create newpassenger experience based on new concepts and technologies

Ø Crossroad of planned high speed railway links (East-West + North -South)

Ø Easily accessible via existing highways (East-West + North-South highways crossings nearby)

Ø Suitable for multiple parallel runways positioning and further long term development (up to 100 mln passengers annually)

NEW INVESTMENT IN THE PIPELINE – Poland’s SOLIDARITY AIRPORT

5-6 June, 2018


Metro of 1.2 M inhabitants

Metro of 3.5 M inhabitants

Q

LOCATION OF THE CENTRAL TRANSPORTATION HUB FOR CEE

5-6 June, 2018


1. The capacity of current European airports is and will not be sufficient. Their development is subject to many restrictions, incl. but not limited to urban, environmental and social ones.

2. The market conditions support construction of new airport infrastructure in Central & Eastern Europe.

3. Central Transport Hub (CTH) – Solidarity Airport is likely to be an important means to relaxing of the European constraints.

4. The potential changes in process of slot allocation aren’t addressing the root of the problem – i.e. lack of infrastructure.

5. Apart from airport infrastructure, airspace capacity requires urgent increase and/or restructuring – they both have to be aligned.

CONCLUSIONS

5-6 June, 2018


THANK YOU

Documents

Infrastructure constraints in Europe · London Heathrow LHR 78,0 3,0% 238,1 0,3% Paris CDG CDG 69,5 5,4% 221,3 0,7% ... (i.e. 3rd runway in LHR) and not always possible (AMS) •