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Contact: Email: [email protected] Press office: 020 7783 8300 Public enquiries: 0370 000 2288
Initial teacher training (ITT) allocations and the teacher
supply model (TSM), England 2018 to 2019
SFR 88/2017, 26 October 2017
This publication covers the outputs of the teacher supply model (TSM) and the allocation of initial teacher
training (ITT) places for ITT courses in 2018 to 2019. The TSM estimates how many new teachers are
needed to enter the teaching profession in 2019 to 2020, and estimates the breakdown of these new
teachers between those teachers returning after a break from teaching, those who are new to the state
sector but have previously qualified, and those who are newly qualified teachers (NQTs). Of the newly
qualified teachers, the model estimates how many postgraduate ITT trainees are needed to start ITT
courses in 2018 to 2019. For allocations, recruitment has been unrestricted in all postgraduate courses this
year except for Early Years, Physical Education and Primary School Direct (salaried) courses, which have
been given fixed allocations.
In 2018 to 2019, there were 73,531 places initially allocated to ITT providers and School Direct lead schools with recruitment unrestricted in most subject and route combinations.
Recruitment is unrestricted this year for all postgraduate courses except Primary School Direct (salaried), Physical Education (all routes) and Early Years ITT
0 10,000 20,000 30,000
Teach First (PG)
Undergraduate (UG)
School Direct (salaried) (PG)
School Direct (fee) (PG)
School Centred ITT (PG)
Higher Education Institution (PG)
Early Years (PG)
Unlimited allocations Fixed allocations Teach First
ITT allocations by route Postgraduate (PG) and undergraduate (UG)
For postgraduate courses in 2018 to 2019,
there were 22,870 ITT places for Primary,
990 places for Early Years and 42,064
places for Secondary.
Recruitment is unrestricted in all
postgraduate courses, except Primary
School Direct (salaried) courses, Physical
Education (all routes) and Early Years ITT,
which received fixed allocations. For
unlimited allocations, providers have
automatic permission to recruit above this
number.
Recruitment is unrestricted in most
postgraduate courses this year. For
subjects with unlimited allocations, the
published data shows the maximum
requests made by each provider. In
practice, providers have automatic
permission to recruit above this number
without requesting additional places.
There were 73,531 initial allocations in total.
This includes 59,919 unlimited allocations,
11,862 fixed allocations and 1,750 places
available for Teach First.
The number of places allocated to each
route does not reflect the number of
eventual trainees per route. Some routes fill
a higher proportion of their allocated places
than others.
- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Art &
Desig
n
Bio
logy
Busin
ess S
tudie
s
Ch
em
istry
Cla
ssic
s
Co
mp
utin
g
De
sig
n &
Tech
no
logy
Dra
ma
Eng
lish
Ge
og
raph
y
His
tory
Math
em
atic
s
Mod
ern
Lang
ua
ge
s
Music
Oth
er
Physic
al E
duca
tion
Physic
s
Re
ligio
us E
duca
tion
Unlimited allocations Fixed Allocations Teach First
ITT allocations for secondary subjectsSecondary postgraduate
Contact: Email: [email protected] Press office: 020 7783 8300 Public enquiries: 0370 000 2288
Contents
Allocations process ........................................................................................ 3
Multiple-year allocations ................................................................................ 3
Postgraduate ITT places for 2018 to 2019 as estimated by the TSM ............. 5
Methodology used in the teacher supply model ............................................. 7
Further information is available ...................................................................... 9
Official Statistics ............................................................................................ 9
Technical information ................................................................................... 10
Get in touch ................................................................................................. 10
About this release
This statistical first release provides initial teacher training allocations, teacher supply model outputs and multiple-year allocations for 2018 to 2019.
In this publication
Initial teacher training allocations
This document identifies initial teacher training places allocated by the National College for Teaching and Leadership (NCTL). It contains information on ITT places for all ITT courses with allocated places for the 2018 to 2019 academic year.
Teacher supply model (TSM)
The TSM is an annual model designed to estimate the number of postgraduate initial teacher training places needed to provide qualified teachers for the state-funded sector; the 2018 to 2019 TSM estimates how many postgraduate ITT entrants are needed for ITT courses starting in autumn 2018.
Multiple-year allocations: Technical guide
Multiple-year allocations were introduced for the first time last year as a reward for the top performing providers. The award is based on Ofsted rating, degree class of trainees, employment outcomes and recruitment performance. A high-level description of the methodology was published in 2017 but this is the first time we are publishing the technical detail.
Multiple-year allocations: Underlying data
This document contains the Ofsted rating, degree class of trainees, employment outcomes and recruitment performance data used to calculate multiple-year allocations.
There are also open document spreadsheet (ODS) versions of initial Teacher Training allocations, the teacher supply model and multiple-year allocations underlying data. The accompanying teacher supply model Methodological Annex gives further information on the data sources used in the TSM as well as information about the assumptions used in the model. The Methodological Annex also provides details on how to do scenario testing within the model.
3
Allocations process (ITT allocations: Table 1)
Every year the Department for Education distributes initial teacher training places to School Direct lead
schools and providers. ITT is largely focused on postgraduate places (which make up 90% of allocated
places) designed to train teachers for the following year. In order to produce the 2018 to 2019 allocations,
the 2018 to 2019 teacher supply model estimates the demand for entrants to the state-funded teaching
sector in England for the 2019 to 2020 school year. These entrants are expected to come from the
following entrant routes: re-entrants (those returning to the teaching profession), teachers new to the state-
funded sector (those that do not go immediately into employment in the state-funded sector after
successfully completing training) and newly qualified teachers. More detail on the TSM can be found in
section 4.
In June 2017, NCTL published guidance on requesting ITT places for the 2018 to 2019 academic year.
This indicated that ITT providers and School Direct lead schools should request places based on a realistic
assessment of local need and minimum sustainability of their ITT programmes. Using these requests for
places and the teacher supply model outputs, the NCTL allocated ITT places to each ITT provider and
School Direct lead school. Initial allocations for the 2018 to 2019 academic year were confirmed with ITT
providers and School Direct lead schools on 14 September 2017.
In the 2018 to 2019 recruitment cycle, a permissive approach was adopted that removed recruitment
constraints on ITT providers and School Direct lead schools for most courses. This was done by
establishing two categories:
Fixed allocations (11,862 places): This category includes undergraduate, Early Years, postgraduate
Primary School Direct (salaried)1 and postgraduate Physical Education (all routes). School Direct lead
schools and ITT providers received fixed allocations beyond which they cannot recruit.
Unlimited allocations (59,919 places): This category includes all postgraduate courses except Teach
First, Physical Education (all routes) and Primary School Direct (salaried). Lead schools and ITT providers
should note that, for subjects with unlimited allocations, the published data shows the maximum requests
made by each provider. In practice, providers have automatic permission to recruit above this number
without having to request additional places from NCTL.
An additional 1,750 places are available for Teach First. The total number of ITT allocations is 73,531,
which is higher than the 27,307 NQTs required as calculated by the TSM. This reflects a number of factors:
many ITT courses will not fill their places; not all trainees will complete their course; and not all trainees that
complete their course will take up a teaching post in the state-funded sector in England.
Multiple-year allocations
For the 2018 to 2019 academic year, 612 ITT providers will be awarded multiple-year allocations for postgraduate ITT places on the basis that they are in the top 25% performing ITT providers. These 25% top performing providers will receive a baseline guarantee of the allocations published in these official statistics for three years, up to and including the 2020 to 2021 academic year.
Four criteria have been used to determine multiple-year allocations with each given equal weight.The four criteria are: quality of provision as measured by Ofsted; the proportion of trainees securing teaching posts in the state-funded school sector in England; the undergraduate degree class of trainees; and recruitment performance against allocations. Full details of the methodology and underlying data for multiple-year allocations are available in the documents accompanying this publication.
1Providers have received a fixed allocation for Primary School Direct (salaried) courses, and cannot recruit above this allocation. Providers have received a fixed allocation for Primary General with Maths School Direct (salaried) courses and Primary Maths Specialist School Direct (salaried) courses but can request additional places. 2 61 providers were awarded, but due to the closure of one SCITT in 2017 to 2018, 60 will receive the designation in 2018 to 2019.
4
Separate to this methodology, the Department for Education invited ITT providers to propose innovative approaches for the delivery of ITT. Providers with successful bids will also be awarded multiple-year allocations, with successful pilots to be announced in autumn 2017. Table 1: Process for postgraduate allocations for 2018 to 2019
Subject
Number of all
teacher
entrants
expected
2019 to 2020
Number of
teacher re-
entrants
expected
2019 to 2020
Number of
new to state-
funded sector
teacher
entrants
expected
2019 to 2020
Number of
Newly
Qualified
Teacher
(NQT) entrants
expected
2019 to 2020
TSM final
outputs:
Estimate of
postgraduate
ITT entrants
needed
2018 to 2019
Number of
postgraduate
ITT allocations
2018 to 20193
Total number
postgraduate /
undergraduate
ITT allocations
2018 to 20193
Art & Design 901 324 114 463 646 1,525 1,570
Biology 1,617 580 205 831 1,188 3,170 3,208
Business Studies 350 126 44 180 241 781 781
Chemistry 1,447 520 184 744 1,053 3,113 3,138
Classics 37 13 5 19 69 94 94
Computing 850 305 108 437 723 2,035 2,213
Design & Technology1 1,479 531 188 760 1,167 1,667 1,697
Drama 532 191 67 273 357 936 951
English 3,913 1,405 496 2,012 2,558 5,144 5,221
Geography 1,357 378 110 869 1,531 3,055 3,086
History 1,430 361 116 953 1,180 2,771 2,771
Mathematics 4,534 1,628 575 2,331 3,116 5,583 5,867
Modern Foreign Languages2 2,397 642 232 1,113 1,600 3,526 3,604
Music 583 209 74 300 409 1,142 1,162
Other 1,264 454 160 650 896 1,312 1,318
Physical Education 1,679 603 213 863 1,078 1,189 1,326
Physics 1,551 557 197 797 1,219 3,375 3,470
Religious Education 853 306 108 438 643 1,646 1,696
All secondary 26,774 9,133 3,196 14,034 19,674 42,064 43,173
All primary 25,493 8,735 3,484 13,273 12,552 22,870 28,837
Early years - - - - - 990 1,090
Total4 52,266 17,869 6,680 27,307 32,226 65,924 73,100
Source: TSM and ITT allocations 2018 to 2019
1. For allocations purposes, ‘Design & Technology’ also includes ‘Food’ (Design & Technology and Food are classed as independent subjects
within the TSM).
2. There are a number of new routes into MFL teaching available. As such, an assumption has been made that 410 teachers will be recruited for
MFL via these initiatives. Therefore, the entrant components in this table do not sum to the total number of entrants required.
3. This includes Teach First places, which are not allocated to courses.
4. Numbers may not add up to the totals because these numbers have been rounded.
In Table 1, the TSM final output column is higher than the number of NQT entrants expected reflecting the
number of trainees who do not complete training or do not find employment in the state-funded sector in the
year after training. The total allocations column is higher than the number of trainees needed reflecting that
not all ITT courses will recruit trainees for all of their places.
5
Postgraduate ITT places for 2018 to 2019 as estimated by the TSM (TSM 2018 to 2019, Final Outputs of ITT Places)
The TSM for 2018 to 2019 requires just under 1,400 more postgraduate ITT places than in 2017 to 2018.
There is an increase of 431 primary places, a 4% increase. There are 948 more secondary places, a 5%
growth but this is not a uniform growth across all subjects. The biggest increases are seen in Design &
Technology and Physics. No subject has seen a decrease in places with six subjects having the number of
places protected at the number in the 2017 to 2018 TSM.
Part of the TSM process includes a review of subjects where the underlying modelling would lead to a fall in
postgraduate training places required in the next training year. Where this would occur in subjects for which
the expected longer term need for teachers is increasing, the ITT place numbers for these subjects are
adjusted to ensure that they do not fall below the previous year’s level. These are marked with a * in Table
2; more information can be found in the Methodological Annex. This adjustment was also applied for EBacc
subjects in the 2016 to 2017 and 2017 to 2018 models in anticipation of the EBacc policy.
Last year, the model estimated reductions in demand for ITT places in non-EBacc subjects as more
teaching time (as a %) would be spent on EBacc subjects to deliver increased EBacc. However, the
modelling now uses a shallower trajectory for the future increase in EBacc take-up rate. This results in the
teaching of non-EBacc subjects not being required to fall by as much within the immediate term because of
increased EBacc.
The main output from the TSM model is therefore the ITT places for 2018 to 2019 set out in Table 2 below.
6
Table 2: TSM outputs of postgraduate ITT places, 2018 to 2019 and 2017 to 2018 2018 to 2019 TSM, postgraduate (PG) ITT places
Number of PG ITT places for the 2018 to 2019 training year as estimated by the
2018 to 2019 TSM
Number of PG ITT places for the 2017 to 2018
training year as estimated by the 2017 to 2018 TSM
Art & Design 646 577
Biology* 1,188 1,188
Business Studies 241 218
Chemistry* 1,053 1,053
Classics* 69 69
Computing* 723 723
Design & Technology 949 751
Drama 357 345
English 2,558 2,426
Food 218 166
Geography* 1,531 1,531
History 1,180 1,160
Mathematics 3,116 3,102
Modern Foreign Languages 1,600 1,514
Music 409 393
Others 896 812
Physical Education 1,078 999
Physics 1,219 1,055
Religious Education* 643 643
Secondary total 19,674 18,726
Primary 12,552 12,121
Total 32,226 30,847
Source: TSM 2018 to 2019
* Subjects that were protected at the 2017 to 2018 level
7
Methodology used in the teacher supply model
The purpose of the TSM is to provide estimates of the number of entrants to teaching needed through
postgraduate ITT. The TSM is a national model covering all state-funded primary (including maintained
nurseries attached to schools) and secondary schools, academies, and free schools3 in England.
The 2018 to 2019 TSM estimates how many postgraduate ITT places need to be filled for people starting
initial teacher training in the autumn of 2018 to provide sufficient numbers of NQTs in the autumn of 2019.
Teachers can also enter the qualified teacher headcount via other recruitment routes, such as
undergraduate ITT, returning to service in the state-funded sector, or as entrants that are new to the state-
funded sector. All such teachers are accounted for within the TSM estimates.
4.a Qualified teacher headcount projections (TSM 2018 to 2019, Outputs with historical data)
The TSM produces an estimate of future qualified teacher headcount requirements for both primary and
secondary teachers in state-funded schools in England. Qualified teachers that are working as supply
teachers, in special schools or in PRUs are considered as teaching outside of the scope of this model. This
results in a difference in the qualified teacher headcount figures to those presented in the School Workforce
Census.4
The qualified teacher headcount is estimated to rise from 450,412 in 2016 to 2017 to 461,262 in 2020 to
2021 (a 2% rise). The largest growth is seen in the secondary sector, where the qualified teacher
headcount is forecast to grow from 208,904 to 216,758 (4% rise). The increase is smaller for the primary
sector; from 241,508 to 244,505 (1% rise). While the primary pupil population is only expected to rise by
1%, the number of ITT places is expected to rise by 4%. This is driven by the latest data and in particular
the estimated rise in future teacher wastage.
These increases are driven by increasing pupil numbers (both primary and secondary pupil numbers are
currently increasing). The TSM assumes that as pupil numbers increase, additional teachers will be
required. For more information, see the Methodological Annex.
Table 3: Qualified teacher headcount in England, 2011 to 2012 academic year to 2020 to 2021 academic year (figures up to and including 2016 to 2017 are historical figures; figures for 2017 to 2018 and beyond are future estimations made by the 2018 to 2019 TSM)
2018 to 2019 TSM, State-funded schools in England
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Primary 219,759 225,243 230,507 235,669 239,334 241,508 243,605 244,270 244,275 244,505
Secondary 219,184 219,704 217,686 215,630 212,014 208,904 210,665 212,699 214,920 216,758
Total 438,943 444,496 448,193 451,300 451,348 450,412 454,271 456,968 459,195 461,262
Source: TSM 2018 to 2019
Entrants to the qualified teacher headcount come from those who are returning to the profession, are new
to the state-funded sector, or are NQTs following completion of their initial teacher training5. In 2015 to
2016 (using historical data from within the 2018 to 2019 TSM for the latest year available), there were
46,666 entrants to the teacher workforce, of whom 51% were newly qualified. The remainder came from
3 The TSM does not cover special schools, pupil referral units, early years, independent schools, and further education/sixth-form colleges. Although it does not cover teaching at key stage 5 in standalone sixth-form colleges or FE colleges, it does cover sixth-form teaching in secondary schools in the state-funded sector. 4 Figures cited in this statistical first release may not correspond to similar figures in other SFRs. This is not an error; the scope of the TSM and the definitions used for certain terms in the model are by necessity different from other publications. 5 In the 2018 to 2019 TSM an assumption has been made that 410 teachers will be recruited for MFL via new initiatives.
8
those new to the state-funded sector (12%) or those returning to the teaching profession (36%). For more
information on entrants to the teaching profession, please see tables 7a and 7b of the School Workforce
Census publication6.
4.b Pupil projections
A large part of the demand for new teachers comes from the anticipated growth in pupil numbers.
The TSM utilises pupil population figures by age group for state-funded nursery & primary and secondary
schools from the Pupil Projections Model (PPM). These figures differ to those within the PPM Statistical
First Release due to the specific scope used by the TSM for modelling purposes. There was a 1.9%
increase in the pupil population of primary school age between January 2016 and 2017, slightly less than
the estimate between these years within the previous version of the TSM. The annual rate of increase is
then expected to slow to 1.2% between January 2017 and 2018, due to a dip in birth figures in 2009. It is
then projected to continue slowing to 0.0% between January 2019 and 2020. The pupil population of
secondary school age (not including year 12 and 13 pupils) is forecast to start rising from 2.72 million in
January 2017 to reach 3.03 million by 2021 (a rise of 11.5% over four years). All pupil population figures
quoted here are sourced from the 2018 to 2019 TSM and are estimates of pupil numbers for the January of
each academic year (so, figures for January 2017 relate to the 2016 to 2017 academic year) . For more
information on the PPM Statistical First Release please see: National pupil projections.7
4.c Curriculum and qualification assumptions
In addition to changes in pupil numbers, there are a number of policy changes that are modelled within the
TSM which affect the estimated demand for new teachers. For the 2018 to 2019 TSM these only impact on
secondary subjects.
For confirmed government policy, the model assumes the expected direction from the announced policy; if
a government position has yet to be announced, a range of scenarios is modelled in line with government
policy and the central scenario is presented. In this year’s publication, there were four confirmed
government policies that required assumptions. These were:
From the 2018 to 2019 academic year, we expect to see increases in the EBacc entry rate up to
75% for GCSE examinations in the summer of 2024 and 90% by 2027 as outlined in our EBacc
consultation response published in July 2017. The model makes a starting estimate of the first stage
of this increase up to 75%, the increase up to 90% by 2027 has not been modelled in these initial
estimates.
The new, expanded Mathematics GCSE will require a greater amount of Mathematics teaching per
pupil at both key stage 3 and 4. We also expect there to be continued growth in take-up of post-16
Mathematics qualifications, including Core Maths.
An assumption that the new GCSE will lead to an increase in hours spent teaching English at key
stage 4.
The removal of the option to take Core Science GCSE from September 2016 will lead to an
increase in teaching time for those pupils who had previously taken one GCSE and now need to
take a Combined Science GCSE, which requires increased teaching time.
These statistics follow the common principle that where a decision has not been reached about a policy,
statisticians use policy assumptions in order to model the data, however this year no policies which have
yet to be announced are included in the modelling.
For more information on these and all other assumptions and how they are reflected in the model, please
see the Methodological Annex that accompanies this publication.
6 School Workforce Census 7 As with the School Workforce SFR figures, there may be some slight differences between TSM figures and the Pupils Projection SFR figures due to differences in definitions, scope, and so on.
9
Further information is available
More information on the ITT allocations process for 2018 to 2019 is available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/initial-teacher-training-itt-requesting-places-2018-to-2019
Provisional data on the actual number of ITT trainees recruited for 2018 to 2019 will be published in the ITT
Census in November 2018 shortly after trainees start their courses.
More information on the ITT allocations process for 2017 to 2018 is available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/itt-requesting-places-and-allocations-methodology-2017-to-
2018
Provisional data on the actual number of ITT trainees that were recruited for 2017 to 2018 will be published
in the ITT Census on 30 November 2017 at the link below:
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training
Comparisons cannot be made with the 2016 to 2017 allocations process because ITT providers and School
Direct lead schools were not allocated places to fill, but were allowed to recruit trainees until there were
enough trainees for that subject (i.e. above the teacher supply model estimate of need) at which point
recruitment was closed nationally. The actual number of trainees that were recruited in 2016 to 2017 is
published in the ITT census, which is available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/initial-teacher-training-trainee-number-census-2016-to-2017
The School Workforce Census statistical first release (SFR) provides the latest information on the
composition of the school workforce employed in local authority maintained nursery, primary, secondary
and special schools and all primary, secondary and special academy schools and free schools in England.
The latest publication is available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/school-workforce-in-england-november-2016
The Pupil Projections SFR provides national projections for the number of pupils in schools by type of
school and age group. The latest publication is available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-pupil-projections-july-2017
The ITT performance profiles SFR is designed to provide transparent information on characteristics,
outcomes and trends of trainee teachers to the public helping potential trainee teachers make informed
choices about where to train. The latest publication is available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/initial-teacher-training-performance-profiles-2015-to-2016
Official Statistics
These are Official Statistics and have been produced in line with Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
This can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:
meet identified user needs
are well explained and readily accessible
are produced according to sound methods
are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest
The department has a set of statistical policies in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
10
Technical information
The TSM Methodological Annex covers the data used in the model and the assumptions made. There is
also guidance on the scenario testing available to users of the model. The Methodological Annex can be
found alongside the model at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model
Get in touch
Media enquiries
Press Office News Desk, Department for Education, Sanctuary Buildings, Great Smith Street, London
SW1P 3BT.
Tel: 020 7783 8300
Other enquiries/feedback
Please send any queries or feedback regarding the teacher supply model to:
Teachers Analysis Division, Department for Education, Sanctuary Buildings, Great Smith Street, London
SW1P 3BT.
Email: [email protected]
Please send any queries or feedback regarding initial teacher training data to:
Teachers Analysis Division, Department for Education, Sanctuary Buildings, Great Smith Street, London
SW1P 3BT.
Email: [email protected]
© Crown copyright 2017
This publication (not including logos) is licensed under the terms of the
Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. Where
we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to
obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
To view this licence:
visit www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3
email [email protected]
write to Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London, TW9 4DU
About this publication:
Enquiries: Teachers Analysis Division, Department for Education, Sanctuary Buildings, Great Smith
Street, London SW1P 3BT.
Email: [email protected]
download https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training
Reference: [SFR 88/2017]
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