INTERNATIONAL YEARBOOK OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS, 1932-33

INTERNATIONAL YEARBOOK OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS, 1932-33Review by: N. JasnySocial Research, Vol. 1, No. 3 (AUGUST, 1934), pp. 392-397Published by: The New SchoolStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40981390 .

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392 SOCIAL RESEARCH have been. Similar attempts are being made in Europe: the liberal and democratic forces are opening the fire with a precise knowledge of the targets. This time the call for a new democratic action is sounded not only by theoreticians but by men who are skilled in active political organization. The program that Henry De Man wrote a few months ago for the Belgian socialist party is now considered and discussed as a definite plan of social reconstruction; the political activity of Giustizia e Libertà is revamping Italian anti-Fascism; the manifesto of the socialist movement in Germany, recently edited in this country by Nor- man Thomas, is another sign in the same direction. Together with enormous differences, some fundamental notes can be recognized in all these attempts to escape strangulation by the right or by the left: a new care for the middle classes, constitutional guarantees for a decent living, centralization of control and decentralization of management in eco- nomic activity, watchful eyes for the definition and protection of civil liberties. After all, the New Deal will not always be a picturesque ex- pression of local American politics. To have contributed to this movement, within the limitations that we must regret, is the best justification for the latest book of Mt. Lippmann.

Max Ascoli

INTERNATIONAL YEARBOOK OF AGRICULTURAL STATIS- TICS, 1932-33, published by the International Institute of Agriculture in Rome, 1933. 794 pp. 90 lire.

The most important publication of the International Institute of Agriculture in Rome, the International Yearbook of Agricultural Sta- tistics, has been greatly supplemented and improved in recent years. In its present form the Yearbook differs considerably from the somewhat meagre standard of the first postwar years. I shall discuss these new features later, but it is worth while first to consider some of the features that have remained virtually unchanged.

It is a somewhat surprising fact that, contrary to what might be ex- pected, each new Yearbook is a completely independent work, not di- rectly connected with the earlier volumes. Thus the Yearbook for 1932-33 contains data on acreage, yield, production and foreign trade for the average of the years 1924 to 1928 and for the years 1929 to 1932. The data for the earlier years may of course be found in the previous issues of the Yearbook, but it would be difficult to make use of them. Estimates of acreage and production are sometimes corrected by the statistical offices even many years after their appearance, but the changed figures appear in the International Yearbook only as far back as data



BOOK REVIEWS AND NOTES 393 for all countries are given. Thus in Poland, the estimates of acreage and yield for the years 1921 to 1927 were revised upward to make them comparable with the figures for 1928 attained by an improved method. But in the Yearbooks the corrected figures can be found only for the years 1925 to 1927. The difficulties in using the data of the previous issues of the Yearbook are still greater as regards totals, since the countries included in the totals are not the same in different Yearbooks. A student of the wheat situation, for instance, may desire to have the figures on world production of wheat for at least a complete five-year period; but the figures for the four years 1929 to 1932, available in the last issue of the Yearbook, can not be supplemented by the figure for 1928 given in the Yearbook for 1931-32.

Moreover, the Institute's publications do not contain series over long periods of years, such as every earnest student requires. No wonder that in serious studies the material supplied by the Department of Agriculture of the United States, the Food Research Institute in Cali- fornia, etc., is used much more freely than that of the International Institute.1

The second point of general importance I wish to emphasize is that the Institute is too easily satisfied with the first summations and com- putations. Totals are presented (with subdivisions) on world production of each of the principal grains, oilseeds and many other agricultural products. No attempt, however, is made to compute the world production of all principal grains, or all oilseeds together. Similarly, only the data on exports and imports of individual products are presented; totals on world trade in all grains together each user of the Yearbook has to compute for himself. As regards prices, only those for single products on separate markets are compiled. What is much more needed, however, are prices of the commodities on the world market with differences in quality, influences of individual markets, etc., eliminated as far as possible. As the International Institute of Agriculture makes no effort in this direction, many other institutions have continued to 1In compiling series over long periods of years the Institute would of course be

compelled to change fundamentally its methods of working. Elasticity must step in, where strict formality rules now. One can not, for example, prepare series on world production over a long period using, as the Institute has made it a principle to do, only official figures, because the official statistics of many countries for different periods are incomparable. The formal, inelastic methods of working are, however, not only inadequate for the preparation of long time series, but they also reduce the value of the current information supplied. In calculating the probable surplus of wheat in exporting countries, for instance, the Institute has frequently used the standing official figure on Canadian production at a time when the deliveries to the country elevators had already made it certain that the official estimate was not correct.



394 SOCIAL RESEARCH

perform this necessary task, or have undertaken to do so even after the creation of the Institute. The extensive use of the indexes of world production and trade in agricultural products calculated by the League of Nations, of Broomhall's prices of red imported wheat of fair quality in Liverpool, of the British parcels wheat prices compiled by the Food Research Institute, etc., shows how pressing the need for such data is.

In the Yearbooks issued since the war, excepting the last two issues, the averages of the years 1909-13 or 1909-10-1913-14 were used as bases of comparison for the figures on production and trade. In other sections of the Yearbook the more primitive base of only one year, 1913, was used, although many serious mistakes were bound to result.

Beginning with the issue for 1931-32 the Institute has abandoned the prewar bases, the correct as well as the deficient ones, and has replaced them by postwar figures. In explanation of this the General Secretary states in the 1931-32 preface, "The prewar period is now rather distant and many changes that have occurred in the interval seem to be of a definite nature or, at any rate, to exclude any return to the previous position. The series of data not influenced by the exceptional circumstances of the years immediately following the war is now sufficiently large to permit the adoption of a new basis of comparison, better adapted to the present conditions. ... It has therefore appeared op- portune to abandon the comparison with prewar years."

Much in this reasoning is unquestionably sound. Some change in

regard to the bases of comparison is surely needed, especially as the

great perturbations caused by the war had established the habit of looking back to the prewar time as to a normal status to which every- thing would gradually return. The prewar base had finally come to be taken as a standard norm. If one could show that something was not in accord with prewar conditions, its abnormal nature was regarded as proved. Multitudes of requests directed to the government for the introduction or raising of import duties, quotas, subsidies, etc., had in their favor no argument except that the petitioners were not getting what they had before the war.

A dethroning of the prewar base of comparison will therefore un-

questionably be welcomed. But the prewar figures have surely not lost their importance entirely. No serious investigation can do without them. For many countries and many summations the prewar base will for a long time to come remain more important than a postwar base. The abuse of it would be prevented by providing two bases, thus pro- moting the investigation of the relation to and the departure from both bases.



BOOK REVIEWS AND NOTES 395 Granted, however, that only one base shall be constructed and that

it shall be a postwar one, how should this base be made up? The Insti- tute thinks it best to use for this purpose the average of the five years immediately preceding those for which data are given in the respective Yearbooks. As the Yearbook for 1931-32 provided data on production and trade in the years 1928 to 1931, the average of 1923 to 1927 was used as a base. In the Yearbook for 1932-33 the average of 1924 to 1928 is the base, etc. But can this purely formal method be regarded as ap- propriate for constructing a base of comparison?

A base of comparison must possess some typical properties. The years selected for composing it must, therefore, be to some extent homoge- neous. The Institute recognizes that the data used should not be influenced by the exceptional circumstances of the years immediately following the war- and surely not by those of the war years themselves. But the merely formal method of selecting the base chosen by the Institute makes it impossible to meet this requirement. By 1923 or even 1924 the disturbances of the war had not disappeared entirely. In prac- tically all European countries the figures on crop production and on number of livestock still remained low, whereas in the United States and some other countries the liquidation of wartime overexpansion was not yet completed. In my opinion a five-year average for 1925 to 1929 would meet the situation much better than the averages used in the last two Yearbooks of the Institute. The facj: that two years enter- ing this average, 1928 and 1929, are given in the Yearbook for 1931-32 separately is no reason for not using them in the preparation of the base.

Moreover, the usefulness of the bases prepared by the Institute is impaired not only by the inclusion of extraordinary war and postwar years; the merely formal method of selecting the data is a considerable danger for the future as well. In the last issue of the Yearbook the representative character of the base as a postwar norm improved. The same will be the case with the next issue. Beginning with the Yearbook for 1934-35, however, the bases must become more and more meaningless, since they will include years of prosperity and years in which production, prices, etc., were strongly affected by the unprecedented world crisis.

As regards the individual sections of the Yearbook, I must content myself with cursory observations. In the section devoted to production the Institute still keeps to the usage of giving figures on areas without stating whether the data refer to areas sown or harvested. There is only a general statement made in a footnote that "the figures of areas, when-



396 SOCIAL RESEARCH ever possible, are those of areas harvested." But the student must know exactly for each individual country what areas he has to deal with. Apart from this, at least for winter grain, figures should be given both on areas harvested and on areas sown. In studying the trend of agricultural production over a brief period of years, the data on acreage harvested are very frequently of very little value; sometimes they are even liable to cause significant errors. As the material compiled by the In- stitute does not extend over many years it would perhaps be more expedient, if merely one set of figures can be given, to supply data only on acreage sown.

The tables on trade have been greatly improved of late by introduc- ing two-fold summations. Up to the issue for 1926-27 only one set of totals for gross exports and imports was given. Beginning with 1927-28 totals for net exports and imports have been added, this series being obtained by summing up all net exports and all net imports separately. The totals on all exports and imports, the only ones available previously, are very useful. But surely most people are primarily interested in the second series.

The section dealing with trade exhibits a further improvement by an addition of tables on trade in wheat and flour together, flour being expressed in terms of wheat. The study of the grain market would be still more facilitated if the Institute would furnish tables on bran (of wheat, rye and rice) . For more profound studies data on trade in products made of barley, oats and corn are likewise necessary. Data on oil cake must be included in any case. Students of the oilseed and oil market, of the dairy industry and of the market for feeding stuffs, are very much interested in them.

The tables on exports and imports arranged not by calendar years but by commercial seasons (August- July) , have of late been enriched by inclusion of the countries of the southern hemisphere, previously lacking, so that world totals can be calculated for commercial seasons as well. In this section of the Yearbook data on exports and imports of corn are lacking. Every study of the world trade in grain is unquestionably incomplete without the transactions in this important cereal.

The number of markets for which price series are published has been greatly increased during the last few years. On rye and rice, for instance, until recently only one series was supplied for each product, whereas now six series are found for each of them.

The need for prices which are undisturbed by local conditions of individual markets, especially by import duties, quota regulations, etc., and which may be regarded as representative of the world market, has



BOOK REVIEWS AND NOTES 397 been stressed above. As the prices on individual markets are compiled in the statistics of the respective countries, an international institute should make it its primary object to prepare series representative of the status of the commodity on the world market. The series of prices of South Russian rye, which actually represent a combination of prices of rye from different countries, can be regarded as a very small step toward what should be accomplished in this field.

Apart from the weekly prices (and freight rates) expressed in the original currency usually published in the Yearbook, the issue for 1931- 32 for the first time contains monthly averages of these prices reduced to gold francs. This has made the Yearbook more useful. It could be still further improved if yearly averages for calendar and commercial years were given.

Since the issue of 1930-31 the statistics on stock are included in the Yearbook. But the data presented are still very incomplete, the only figures given being those on the carryover of wheat in Canada and in the United States, on visible commercial stocks of grain in the same countries, on grain afloat to Europe and on port stocks of grain in the United Kingdom. The investigation of the Food Research Institute, "Estimation of End- Year World Wheat Stocks from 1922,"1 shows that by including all available data and using correct working methods very important results can be attained in this field.

The value of the work would be greatly raised by publishing it in several parts at different dates adjusted to the seasonal availability of the statistics included. As soon as all separate parts of a Yearbook were out, they could easily be bound together in one volume. The Institute will meet all reasonable requirements only by supplying long time series, some of them extending over at least half a century, and by simul- taneously rendering its publications as up to date as possible, thus enabling the student to survey the present situation in the light of past developments.

N. Jasny

ROGERS, LINDSAY. Crisis Government [Social Action Books, ed. by Al vin Johnson] New York: Norton. 1934. 166 pp. $1.75.

This book frankly acknowledges its origin in a course of lectures, re- worked and amplified with the development of events. It is loosely built and not weighted down with scientific framework or with systematic reports of facts. A simple and clear idea is developed in various chapters 1 Wheat Studies, vol. ix, no. 5, 1933.



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INTERNATIONAL YEARBOOK OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS, 1932-33