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1 Investor Presentation Q2 FY 2018

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Page 1: Investor Presentation/media/Files/D/D-R-Horton... · 2018. 5. 4. · Investor Presentation Q2 FY 2018. 2 D.R. HORTON, INC. By closings volume for calendar years 2002 to 2017. 3 FORWARD-LOOKING

11Investor PresentationQ2 FY 2018

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22

D . R . H O R T O N , I N C .

By closings volume for calendar years 2002 to 2017

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33

F O R W A R D - L O O K I N G S TAT E M E N T S

This presentation may include “forward‐looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actualoutcomes will not be materially different. Factors that may cause the actual results to be materially different from the futureresults expressed by the forward‐looking statements include, but are not limited to: the cyclical nature of the homebuildingindustry and changes in economic, real estate and other conditions; constriction of the credit markets, which could limit ourability to access capital and increase our costs of capital; reductions in the availability of mortgage financing provided bygovernment agencies, changes in government financing programs, a decrease in our ability to sell mortgage loans on attractiveterms or an increase in mortgage interest rates; the risks associated with our land and lot inventory; our ability to effect ourgrowth strategies, acquisitions or investments successfully; home warranty and construction defect claims; the effects of a healthand safety incident; the effects of negative publicity; supply shortages and other risks of acquiring land, building materials andskilled labor; the impact of an inflationary, deflationary or higher interest rate environment; reductions in the availability ofperformance bonds; increases in the costs of owning a home; the effects of governmental regulations and environmental matterson our homebuilding operations; the effects of governmental regulations on our financial services operations; our significant debtand our ability to comply with related debt covenants, restrictions and limitations; competitive conditions within thehomebuilding and financial services industries; the effects of the loss of key personnel; and information technology failures anddata security breaches. Additional information about issues that could lead to material changes in performance is contained inD.R. Horton’s annual report on Form 10‐K and our most recent quarterly report on Form 10‐Q, both of which are filed with theSecurities and Exchange Commission.

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44

D . R . H O R T O N , I N C . T R A D E D ON N Y S E A S D H I

48,731Annual homes closed

$630.3 millionCash flow from operations*

$15.1 billionAnnual consolidated revenues

$8.2 billionStockholders’ equity

$1.8 billionAnnual pre‐tax income

$21.72Book value per common share

As of or for the twelve‐month period ended March 31, 2018Consolidated cash flow from operations excluding the Forestar, eliminations and other adjustment columns in the segment tables in the Company’s Q2 FY 2018 press release

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55

B R O A D N AT I O N A L F O O T P R I N T 7 9 M A R K E T S | 2 6 S TAT E S

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66

B R O A D N AT I O N A L F O O T P R I N T 7 9 M A R K E T S | 2 6 S TAT E S

HB Revenue

29%

24%

25%

12%

5% 5%

Inventory

27%

24%25%

12%

6%6%

As of or for the twelve‐month period ended March 31, 2018Savannah, Georgia is included in the East Region; Atlanta and Augusta, Georgia are included in the Southeast Region

EASTDelaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North and 

South Carolina, Pennsylvania,

Virginia

MIDWESTColoradoIllinois

Minnesota

SOUTHEASTAlabama, Florida, 

Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee

SOUTH CENTRALLouisianaOklahoma

Texas

SOUTHWESTArizona

New Mexico

WESTCalifornia, Hawaii, 

Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington

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77

D I V E R S E P R O D U C T O F F E R I N G S A N D P R I C E P O I N T S

18%

28%

20%

27%

7%

$0$500k

Represents homes closed for the twelve months ended 3/31/18

Homes for entry‐level, move‐up, active adult and luxury buyers

$200k

$250k

$300k

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88

FA M I LY O F B R A N D S

59%

36%

3% 2%

HomesSold

57%38%

3% 2%

HomesClosed

62%

30%

6% 2%

Home SalesRevenue

79 markets | 26 states ASP $323k

60 markets | 21 states ASP $241k

36 markets | 16 states ASP $578k

25 markets | 14 statesASP $271k

Based on Q2 FY 2018 results

FIRST TIME / MOVE UP ENTRY LEVEL LUXURY ACTIVE ADULT

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99

M A N A G E M E N T T E N U R E A N D E X P E R I E N C E

City managersover 10 years

Executive team andregion presidents

25 years

Division presidents14 years

Average employee tenure

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1010

M A R K E T S H A R E D O M I N A N C E

Top 5 Markets Top 50 Markets

0

10

20

30

40

50

#1 Top 5 Top 10 Operate In

Source: Builder magazine ‐ 2017 Local Leaders issue, rankings based on homes closed in calendar 2016

13

28

3640

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

DFW Houston Atlanta Phoenix AustinDHI market share Market share of highest ranking competitor

D.R. Horton Share and Rankings in Largest U.S. Housing Markets

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1111

O P E R AT I O N A L F O C U S

• Maximize returns by managing inventory levels and balancing sales pace and pricing in each community

• Generate consistent positive annual cash flow from operations

• Maintain inventories of land, lots and homes that support double‐digit annual growth in both revenues and profits

• Underwriting expectations for each community:

• Minimum 20% annual pre‐tax return on inventory (ROI)

• Initial cash investment returned within 24 months or less

• Increase optioned land and lots by expanding relationships with land developers• Grow Forestar’s land development platform

• Control SG&A while ensuring infrastructure supports growth

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1212

E M P H A S I S O N R E T U R N O N I N V E N T O R Y ( R O I )

Steady improvement in Homebuilding ROI

12.8%

15.4% 16.0% 16.6%17.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

FY 2015 FY 2016 TTM 3/31/17 FY 2017 TTM 3/31/18

Homebuilding ROI is calculated as homebuilding pre‐tax income for the year divided by average homebuilding inventory.  Average homebuilding inventory in the ROI calculation is the sum of ending homebuilding inventory balances for the trailing five quarters divided by five. 

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1313

B A L A N C E D A P P R O A C H

Consolidated Revenues

$10.8 $12.2 

$14.1 

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018e

Land Investment ‐ Homebuilding

$2.2

$2.7

$3.5

~$4.0

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018e

$ in billionsExpect to generate positive cash flow from operations for the fourth consecutive year excluding Forestar

Expect to generate positive cash flow from operations for the fourth consecutive year while growing revenues and replenishing land investments

$15.9 – $16.3

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F Y 2 0 1 8 C A P I TA L A N D C A S H F L O W P R I O R I T I E S

• Balanced, disciplined, flexible and opportunistic• Invest in homebuilding opportunities, including acquisitions, to generate acceptable 

returns and consolidate market share • Acquired 75% of Forestar for $558 million in October 2017• Reduce or maintain debt levels and leverage• Refinanced $400 million of senior notes in Q1 FY 2018

• Consistent dividends to shareholders• Increased quarterly dividend by 25% in Q1 FY 2018• Approximately $190 million annually

• Share repurchases to partially offset dilution• Repurchased 1,000,000 shares during the six months ended 3/31/18 for $47.9 million• Remaining Board authorization at 3/31/18 of $152.1 million

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C O N S O L I D AT E D P R E - TA X P R O F I T M A R G I N

$10.8$12.2

$14.110.4%

11.1%11.4%

12.1% ‐ 12.3%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

$18.0

FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018eConsol. Rev $ PTI %

PTI %Consol. Rev $  

$ in billionsConsolidated pre‐tax profit margin shown as a % of consolidated revenues

$15.9 – $16.3

Expect consolidated pre‐tax profit margin to improve 70 to 90 basis points in FY 2018

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1616

F O R E S TA R G R O U P ( “ F O R ” )

• FOR, a majority‐owned subsidiary of DHI (as of 10/5/17), is a publicly‐traded land development company, with operations in 18 markets and 10 states

• The strategic relationship between DHI and FOR will significantly grow FOR into a large, national residential land development company, selling lots to DHI and other homebuilders

• Advances DHI strategy of increasing access to optioned land and lots to enhance efficiency and returns

• Over the next 3 to 5 years, DHI intends to reduce its ownership position and increase FOR’s public float

• Effective 1/30/18, FOR’s fiscal year‐end aligns with DHI’s September 30 fiscal year

• Annual lot delivery and revenue expectations*

• Fiscal 2018:  1,200 lot deliveries and $90M of revenue

• Fiscal 2019:  4,000 lot deliveries and $300M to $350M of revenue

• Fiscal 2020:  10,000 lot deliveries and $700M to $800M of revenue

• Over the next three years, expect FOR’s stabilized pre‐tax profit margin to be 10% to 12%

• Forestar is targeting a net debt to capital ratio of 40%

*Expectations are for Forestar’s standalone operations

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1717

F O R E S TA R G R O W T H T I M E L I N E

Expect FOR to deliver 4,000 lots and generate $300M to $350M of revenues in FY19

Oct. 5, 2017

FOR evaluating 38 primarily DHI‐sourced projects (closed 

on 20 as of 3/31/18) representing 15,000 lots

DHI & FOR fiscal year‐end

Sept. 30, 2018

Expect FOR to invest $400M in land acquisition and development and have a bank credit facility in 

place in FY18

Lot counts and dollar amounts are approximateExpectations outlined are for Forestar’s standalone operations

DHI Q3 earnings release & call

July 2018 

Sept. 30, 2019Sept. 30, 2020

DHI to provide updated FOR guidance

Expect FOR to access the public markets for additional growth 

capital in FY19

Feb. 2018

FOR strategic asset sale

Expect FOR to deliver 1,200 lots and generate $90M of revenues in fiscal 2018 

DHI does not expect FOR to have a material impact on its fiscal 2018 results

Expect FOR to deliver 10,000 lots and generate $700M to $800M of revenues in FY20

DHI acquisition date of 75% of o/s shares of 

FOR

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1818

F Y 2 0 1 8 E X P E C TAT I O N S *

Fiscal Year:• Consolidated pre‐tax profit margin of 12.1% to 12.3%• Consolidated revenues between $15.9 billion and $16.3 billion• Homes closed between 51,500 homes and 52,500 homes• Home sales gross margin in the range of 20.5% to 21.0%, with potential quarterly fluctuations that may be outside of this range

• Homebuilding SG&A expense of around 8.7% of homebuilding revenues• Financial Services operating margin of approximately 30%• Income tax rate of approximately 25%**• Outstanding share count increase of less than 1%• Cash flow from operations of at least $800 million (excluding Forestar) 

Third Quarter:• Backlog conversion rate in the range of 87% to 89%• Home sales gross margin of 20.5% to 21.0%• Homebuilding SG&A expense in the range of 8.2% to 8.3% of homebuilding revenues• Income tax rate between 25% and 26%

*Based on the Company’s results for 1H18 and market conditions as noted on its Q2 FY18 conference call on 4/26/18 and excluding Forestar**Excludes Q1 FY 2018 charge of $108.7 million to reduce net deferred tax assets as a result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

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1919

T H R E E Y E A R O U T L O O K *

FY 18 – FY 20:

• Increase consolidated revenues and pre‐tax profits at a double‐digit annual pace• Improve return on inventory

• Increase optioned lots to 60% of total homebuilding land and lot position by 2020

• Cash flow from operations growing to over $1.25 billion annually in 2020 

•Maintain or reduce debt and leverage

• Increase dividends• Repurchase shares to offset dilution with a target to keep our outstanding share count flat by 2020

*Based on market conditions as noted on the Company’s conference call on 4/26/18 and excluding Forestar

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2020

S E C O N D Q U A R T E R D ATA

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Q 2 F Y 2 0 1 8 H I G H L I G H T S

• Net income attributable to D.R. Horton increased 53% to $351.0 million or $0.91 per diluted share

• Consolidated pre‐tax income increased 26% to $444.8 million

• Consolidated pre‐tax profit margin improved 80 basis points to 11.7%

• Net homes sold, homes closed and homes in backlog increased by 13%, 15% and 8%, respectively

• 15,828 net homes sold and 12,281 homes closed

• Homes in inventory increased 8% to 29,400 homes

• Lots owned and controlled up 13% to 257,700; 52% optioned, up from 48%

• Repurchased 500,000 shares during the quarter for $22.5 million

Comparisons to prior year quarter

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2222

S A L E S , C L O S I N G S A N D B A C K L O G

Net Sales Orders, Homes Closed and Homes in Backlog increased 13%, 15% and 8%, respectively, in Q2 FY 2018 compared to Q2 FY 2017

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Sales Closings Backlog2Q FY 2016 2Q FY 2017 2Q FY 2018

# of Homes

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2323

I N C O M E S TAT E M E N T

$ in millions except per share data

YEAR ENDED3/31/2018 3/31/2017 3/31/2018 3/31/2017 9/30/2017

Homes closed 12,281  10,685  23,069  20,089  45,751 

HomebuildingRevenues:   Home sales  $        3,672.1   $        3,158.1   $        6,856.6   $        5,955.8   $      13,653.2    Land/lot sales and other 13.6  6.3  50.0  34.7  88.3 

3,685.7  3,164.4  6,906.6  5,990.5  13,741.5 Gross profit:   Home sales 764.6  626.0  1,427.6  1,178.9  2,725.4    Land/lot sales and other 1.6  0.7  6.7  8.3  13.5    Inventory and land option charges (30.1) (12.2) (33.8) (14.5) (40.2)

736.1  614.5  1,400.5  1,172.7  2,698.7 SG&A 322.7  294.5  627.5  562.9  1,220.4 Interest and other (income)  (2.6) (2.4) (16.8) (6.5) (11.0)

Homebuilding pre‐tax income 416.0  322.4  789.8  616.3  1,489.3 Financial services, Forestar and other pre‐tax income 28.8  31.5  46.3  55.8  112.8 Pre‐tax income 444.8  353.9  836.1  672.1  1,602.1 Income tax expense 94.0  124.7  296.4  236.0  563.7 Net income 350.8  229.2  539.7  436.1  1,038.4 Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests (0.2) 0.0  (0.6) 0.0  0.0 Net income attributable to D.R. Horton, Inc.  $           351.0   $           229.2   $           540.3   $           436.1   $        1,038.4 

Diluted earnings per share  $             0.91   $             0.60   $             1.41   $             1.15   $             2.74 

3 MONTHS ENDED 6 MONTHS ENDED

                        

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2424

H O M E S A L E S G R O S S M A R G I N

Home sales gross margin of around 20%

19.8% 20.2% 19.8% 19.8% 19.8% 20.3% 20.8% 20.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

FY15 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY18 Q2 FY18

Shown as a % of the Company’s homebuilding segment’s home sales revenuesIncludes interest amortized to cost of salesRefer to slide 3 of the Company’s Q2 FY18 Supplementary Data presentation for detailed components of home sales gross margin 

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2525

H O M E B U I L D I N G S G & A

SG&A as a percentage of homebuilding revenues improved 50 basis points to 8.8% in Q2 FY 2018

Fiscal YTD 3/31 Second Fiscal Quarter

9.4%9.1%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

 2017 2018

 HB Rev $   SG&A %

9.3%8.8%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Q2 FY17 Q2 FY18

 HB Rev $   SG&A %

HB Rev $ SG&A % HB Rev $ SG&A %

$ in millionsShown as a % of homebuilding revenues

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C O N S O L I D AT E D P R E - TA X I N C O M E

$672.1$836.1

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

2017 2018

10.9%

11.7%

Fiscal YTD 3/31 Second Fiscal Quarter

Consolidated pre‐tax profit margin improved 80 basis points to 11.7% in Q2 FY 2018

$353.9 $444.8

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Q2 FY17 Q2 FY18

10.9%11.7%

PTI $ PTI $

$ in millionsShown as a % of consolidated revenues

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B A L A N C E S H E E T

$ in millions except per share metricsHomebuilding cash and cash equivalents presented above includes $9.4 million, $9.3 million and $11.1 million of restricted cash for the periods ended 3/31/18, 9/30/17 and 3/31/17, respectively.

3/31/2018 9/30/2017 3/31/2017Homebuilding

$                538.3  $                982.3   $                959.0 Inventories:   Construction in progress and finished homes 5,119.6 4,606.0 4,642.6   Land inventories                4,720.0                 4,631.1                  4,395.5 

9,839.6  9,237.1  9,038.1 Other assets 828.4  793.1 711.0 

Deferred income taxes, net 219.9 365.0 451.6Financial services, Forestar and other assets                1,791.9  807.1 761.4Total assets $          13,218.1  $          12,184.6   $          11,921.1 

HomebuildingNotes payable $            2,623.1  $            2,451.6   $            2,803.4 Other liabilities 1,536.8 1,508.7 1,428.0

Financial services, Forestar and other liabilities 686.3 476.7 469.6Stockholders’ equity                8,198.9                 7,747.1                  7,219.6 Noncontrolling interests                    173.0                          0.5                           0.5 Total equity                8,371.9                 7,747.6                  7,220.1 Total liabilities and equity $          13,218.1  $          12,184.6   $          11,921.1 

Debt to total capital – homebuilding 24.2% 24.0% 28.0%Common shares outstanding 377.41 374.99 374.40Book value per common share $                21.72  $                20.66   $                19.23 

      Cash and cash equivalents

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H O M E S I N I N V E N T O R Y

Homes in inventory increased from a year ago to support expected growth in homes closed

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

9/30/15 9/30/16 3/31/17 9/30/17 3/31/18

Models Sold Specs

23,100

19,800

29,400

27,100 26,200

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H O M E B U I L D I N G L A N D A N D L O T P O S I T I O N

118,400 112,900 118,500 125,000 124,200

55,50091,600 108,800

124,000 133,500

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

9/30/15 9/30/16 3/31/17 9/30/17 3/31/18Optioned Owned

173,900

227,300

Optioned lot position increased 23% from a year ago48% owned / 52% optioned at 3/31/18

204,500

257,700249,000

*Includes 8,700 lots owned or controlled by FOR that DHI has under contract or the right of first offer or refusal to purchase

*

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H O M E B U I L D I N G P U B L I C D E B T M AT U R I T I E S B Y Y E A R

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23

4.750%

$350

$500 $500

2.550%3.750% 4.000% 4.375%

5.750%

$700

$ in millions

$400