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CZU: 339.9: 336.7:005 (100+478)(043.3)=161.1 22
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UNIVERSITATEA LIBER INTERNAIONAL DIN MOLDOVA
Cu titlu de manuscris
CZU: 339.9: 336.7:005 (100+478)(043.3)=161.1 22
IRINA BALINA
EVALUAREA RISCURILOR ECONOMICE N ACTIVITATEA BANCAR
INTERNATIONAL
Specialitatea 08.00.14 Economie mondial; relaii economice
internaionale
Tez de doctor n economie
Conductor tiinific: Iuri CROTENCO, doctor habilitat
n economie, conf. univ.
Autorul: BALINA Irina, doctorant
CHIINU, 2013
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3
, , 2013
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4
( , , )
ADNOTARE Irina Balina, Evaluarea riscurilor economice n
activitatea bancar internaional,
teza de doctor n domeniul economiei, Chiinu 2013 Structura
tezei: teza este expus pe 148 pagini al textului de baz i cuprinde
introducerea, trei capitole,
concluzii i recomandri, lista bibliografic cu 169 publicaii, 18
desene, 12 tabele, 22 formule, precum i 19 anexe ce conin 19
tabele.
Cuvintele cheie: economia mondial, relaii economice
internaionale, riscuri economice, metodici cantitative i
calitative, hedging (acoperire), externalizarea, criz financiar
global, activitatea bancar internaional.
Aria de investigare: riscurile economice n economia mondial i
relaiile economice internaionale aplicabile la activitatea bancar
internaional.
Scopul tezei: investigarea i elaborarea bazei teoretice i
metodologice de influen asupra riscurilor economice n activitatea
bancar internaional i identificarea direciilor prioritare n vederea
reducerii aciunilor de dumping asupra economiei mondiale
Obiectivele tezei: investigarea aspectelor teoretice i a
problemelor riscurilor economice n activitatea bancar internaional;
studierea particularitilor evenimentelor ce in de risc i
formalizarea principiilor de clasificare a riscurilor n activitatea
bancar internaional; cercetarea consecinelor impactului riscurilor
economice n economia global asupra activitii bancare internaionale;
efectuarea analizei particularitilor situaionale ale sistemului
bancar din Republica Moldova sub influena riscurilor economice n
condiiile actuale ale conjuncturii economico-financiare mondiale;
elaborarea direciilor de reducere a riscurilor economice n
activitatea bancar internaional, inclusiv i n baza mecanismelor
matematice de modelare.
Noutatea tiinific i originalitatea lucrrii reprezint propunerea
privind evidenierea noiunii teoretice riscurile globale ale
sistemului internaional bancar ca form de sine stttoare a
riscurilor globale n economia mondial; propunerile privind creterea
rolului i importanei organizaiilor internaionale (Fondul Monetar
Internaional i Banca Mondial etc.) prin implementarea recomandrilor
acestora, n scopul reducerii impactului riscurilor economice asupra
activitii bancare internaionale, n vederea depirii efectului
economiei mozaice; modificarea clasificrii internaionale a
riscurilor de ctre Peter S.Rose cu utilizarea unui nivel global nou
de formalizare i ajustare a unui grup suplimentar de clasificare a
riscurilor, cu luarea n cont a riscurilor anului 2013 i ale decadei
ce urmeaz; formularea recomandrilor privind reducerea impactului
riscurilor economice i asigurarea stabilitii sistemice a sistemului
naional bancar bazat pe implementarea cerinelor internaionale ale
Comitetului Basel privind supravegherea bancar Basel II i Basel
III; elaborarea recomandrilor aferente aciunilor dumping a
riscurilor economice n activitatea internaional a sistemului bancar
internaional la capitolul dezvoltrii sferei investiionale i
reglementrii riscurilor n condiiile internaionalizrii fluxurilor
financiare.
Abordarea tiinific a investigaiei reprezint studierea aspectelor
practico-teoretice de dumping a riscurilor economice n condiiile
actuale de criz i post-criz n dezvoltarea economiei mondiale i
elaborarea abordrilor recomandabile de perfecionare a acestora la
nivel mondial, regional i naional.
Importana teoretic li valoarea practic a tezei: Importana
teoretic a lucrrii se caracterizeaz prin aspectele teoretice,
metodologice i conceptuale ce extind unghiul de cercetare a
chestiunilor ce in de dumpingul riscurilor economice din
activitatea bancar internaional n condiiile de criz i post-criz n
dezvoltarea economiei mondiale. Elaborrile tiinifice coninute n
lucrare pot fi utilizate n continuare n cadrul desfurrii
investigaiilor tiinifice n domeniul economiei mondiale i relaiilor
economice internaionale, sistemului bancar internaional, n special,
la studierea semnelor de clasificare a riscurilor economice,
metodelor analitice de reducere a acestora, la elaborarea modelelor
i scenariilor matematice la analiza situaiilor de risc n condiiile
de continu schimbare (n dinamic). Concluziile i propunerile
prezentei tezei pot fi utilizate pentru elaborarea cadrului
normativ legal de dezvoltare a sistemului bancar, n special pentru
strategiile, planurile, programele i regulamentele naionale,
colaborarea economic cu rile i grupurile financiare i bancare
internaionale, inclusiv i pentru implementarea standardelor i
certificatelor internaionale n practica de administrare a
riscurilor din sfera bancar.
Estimarea i implementarea rezultatelor tiinifice: Aprobarea
materialelor tezei s-a efectuat n cadrul seciilor Institutului de
Investigaii Strategice n
domeniul Economiei IISE ULIM, laboratorului de cercetri
tiinifice al Universitii Slavone, n form de rapoarte prezentate n
cadrul unor conferine tiinifice internaionale i naionale,
discursuri la diferite seminare tehnico-tiinifice. Importana
implementrii rezultatelor este confirmat de documentaia respectiv:
n BC Banca Social S.A. - filialele ciusev i Botanica, Institutul de
Investigaii Strategice n domeniul Economiei IISE ULIM,
Universitatea Slavon din Republica Moldova.
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5
, ,
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Banca Sociala , , IISE ULIM .
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6
ANNOTATION Irina Balina, Investigation of economic risks in
international banking,
Scientific degree thesis in economics, Chisinau 2013 Thesis
structure: The thesis has 148 pages of the main text and includes
the introduction, three chapters,
conclusions and recommendations, bibliographical list of 169
publications, 18 figures, 12 tables, 22 formulas, as well as 19
attachments with 19 tables.
Key words: world economy, the international economic relations,
economic risks, quantitative and qualitative methods, hedging,
outsourcing, world crisis, the international banking.
Area of research: economic risks in world economy and the
international economic relations of the international bank
activity.
Aim of the thesis: researching and developing theoretical and
methodological basis of influence on economic risks in the
international banking and indentifying the priority directions in
order to reduce their dumping impact on the world economy.
The objectives of the thesis: researching the theoretical
aspects and issues on economic risks in the international bank
activity; studying the particularities in determining risk events
and in formalizing principles of risk classification in the
international banking; investigating the consequences economic risk
impact in global economy on the international banking; conducting
analysis of situation particularities of the bank system of the
Republic of Moldova under the impact of economic risks in the
conditions of the actual world economical and financial
conjuncture; elaborating directions of economic risk decrease in
the international banking, as well as by applying mechanisms on
mathematics modeling.
The scientific novelty and originality of the thesis includes:
proposals on determining theoretical concept of "the global risks
of the international banking system" in an independent form of
global risks of the world economy; proposals to increase the role
and importance of international organizations (International
Monetary Fund, World Bank etc.) by implementing their
recommendations in order to reduce the impact of the economic risks
to the international banking activities and to overcome the effect
of "patchwork" economy; the modification of the traditional risk
classification by Peter S.Rose with a new global level of
formalization and adjustment of additional risk classification with
regard to the main risks of 2013 and the next decade; proposals for
the application of mathematical modeling of the mechanisms in order
to develop ways to reduce economic risks in international banking;
providing recommendations to reduce the impact of economic risks
and to ensure banking system stability, based on the implementation
of international requirements of the Basel Committee on bank
supervision Basel II and Basel III; making recommendations on
damping economic risks in international activities of the banking
system through the development of the investment sector and risk
management in the conditions of internationalizing financial
flows.
The scientific research issue is to study the theoretical and
practical damping aspects of economic risks in actual conditions of
crisis and post-crisis development of the world economy and the
development of recommendation approaches for their improving at the
global, regional and national levels.
Theoretical significance and practical value of the thesis: The
theoretical value of the thesis is determined by its theoretical,
methodological and conceptual
provisions that extend the theoretical research approach to the
damping risk issue in international banking of crisis and
post-crisis global economy. The elaborated concepts contained in
the thesis can be used for further research in the world economy
and international economic relations, international banking system,
in particular in the study of classifications of economic risks,
analytical methods for their decreasing, development of
mathematical modeling and scenario analysis of risk situations in
changing conditions (in dynamics). Conclusions and proposals of
this thesis may be used to develop the national regulatory basis
governing the economic development of the banking system, in
particular, the national strategies, plans, programs, and
regulations for development, economic cooperation with the
countries and the international financial and banking groups,
including the implementation of international standards and
certificates in the practice of banking risk management.
Estimation and implementation of scientific results Approbation
of thesis materials was provided within the divisions of the
Institute of Strategic Studies in
Economics IISE of the International Independent University of
Moldova, scientifically research laboratory of the Slavonic
University, in the form of reports at the international and
national scientific conferences, presentations at the scientific
and technical seminars.
The implementation of the scientific results is confirmed by the
due documentation: BC Banca Sociala S.A., its branches Sciusev and
Botanica Institute of Strategic Studies in economics IISE ULIM;
Slavonic University of the Republic of Moldova
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7
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-
45
5%; , , , .
. 2004 2007 (FSAP), , , , , , . , , , . , 2011 , . , , , . , II
III , , , , .
, . , .
2001 . (Bankers Blanket Bond). BBB QBE Asito
Moldova-Agroindbank. , .
, , , , .
-
46
BBB 4 QBE Asito, Garant, Donaris Grup Orateh.
1- , . . / . , (, ).
.
:
- , . -, , , , . ;
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- , , . ;
- . , -. ( , ), , . , . , , ;
- ,
-
47
. ;
- , ;
. . -, .
, , . , . .
, , - .. FinComBank :
1. 5%. 2. - 5%. 3.
- 2%; - 15%. Banca Sociala
(), Banca Sociala . . / , . , , , , , . .
.
-
48
2.3. 2008 2010
.
2008 ., 2009 . , , . , , , . [57, . 572]
, 2009 7,7%. 11% , 1,5 . . 0,4%. , 2009. ( , 0,9%) . 2008 . (
22% 18,5%), , , 2 - 3- .
2009 . . , , 17,5% 8% 14% 5% . . 2010 , , . , - , , , .
2009. .
, 2,4% ( Banca Social .. 10%). Investprivatbank, , .
4- : BCR Chiinu (-315 . ), Eximbanc(-58 . ), Unibanc (-45 . ),
ProCreditBank (-35 . ).
-
49
2008 . : Mold-groindbank ( - 63%), Banca de Economii (- 87%),
Victoriabank (-71%), Moldindconbank (-76%) Mobiasbank (-79%). Banca
Social .. 2008 44%. Universalbank, 2008 . (2,6 . ), 86%, 5 . . ,
145 . .
, - . , 0,6 ( Banca Social .. 0,58) 1, 38,27% 20%.
, , , . 2009 5%, 10 . , , .
, . 2010 ., - , , , . , 2010 16 15.
, 2010 (-5%), , : Fincombank (-15,8%), Mobiasbanc (-15,3%),
Moldova Agroindbank (-14,2%), Moldindcombank (-13%), Banca Social
.., 1,6 . ( 13%), .
., 31 2002 16 120 . ($8,3 .); 70 . 120 . ; - 70 . ($4,9 .). 2010
(. . 2.2). 2002 BTR Moldova, ICB
-
50
Banca municipal Chisinu. Petrolbank Eurocreditbank. 2009 . .
14 , ( BCR Fil. Chiinau, - Unibank), 100% (ExibBank,
Businessbanca, Comertbank) (Victoriabank, Mobiasbanca,
Eurocreditbank, Energbank).
. 2.2. 2.2. 31.12.2010 . (. )
##
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: [93]
126,7 . (Universalbank). 2009 . , 145,5 . 2009 . 2008 1 . 270,3
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"", , .
, . 2.3.
-
51
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. .
: [93]
77,6%, 2009 . 3,5 -. 2009 . 32,3%, 12%. 2009 . 2,2% - 39 . 915 .
($3,1 .). , , 3,4%. : - 145,8% - 6 . 052,5 . ($475,5 .); overnight
99,9% - 5 . 465,1 . ($429,3 .); 16,4% - 2 . 179,3 . ($171,2 .).
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.). 10,4 , 2010 16,3%. , 2009 ., 0,3 . - 4,7 9,7% 2009 . 2009 . -
51,6%. 15,9%, , - 12,5%, - 8,7%.
, , . , 700 . 2009 . 35,3% - 1 . 656,9 . ($130,1
-
52
.). , , 16,8% - 7 . 540,9 . ($592,4 .). 2009 . 2,9% - 26 . 416,5
. ($2,1 .). 3,7% - 16 . 465,8 . ($1,3 .), 4,9% - 8 . 011,8 . ($630
.).
2010 . 2010 15 4,7% , 14,4%, 71,6%, 11,6%, 14,3% . , 1994 ,
19.06.2009.
31 2010 ( 2.2.) 1422,13 . , 39,77 . 30 2010 ., 1461,90 . .
[45]
. 2.2.
2010 : [93]
:
, 51,53 . .
6,15 . ( 0,80 . , , ).
-
53
, 1,42 . .
(- 1,16 . ).
-1,10 . . 2010 :
15,00 . ;
3,11 . ( 2,43 . );
1,56 . ;
0,81 . ( 0,80 . );
1,11 . .
, . 2010 . 2010 2012 . 3- : ; . , , . , . ( , ) 5% 2010 . ,
2011-2012 .
. , 2010 . 2009 . 2,8%, 2010 . 8,1%. - . () 04.02.2010 , .
-
54
: , .
25 2010 . . , . , , 31 2010 . , , , .
: , ; - , ; .
, , . - , . , , , , 20% 10% . , , .
31 2010 . , , , .
. . .
-
55
100 . , : , . I , , , . , I , , . 2 : 31 2011 ., I 150 . , 31
2012 .- 200 . . , .
2010 . , () , , . , , . , , , , . - , , : , , , , - . , .
( 2010 .), , - MOLICO ,
-
56
. , , , , . , (CCCEC) , (), () - () . , , .
, , , 2003 . , . , , . , , , . , .
(, , , ) , . . , , , . , , , . , 50 . , . , ,
-
57
. , .
:
1. : ,
;
: .
2. : ; , .. ; ; ( 180 )
; ; .
3. : ; .
, , , .
2.4. 2011 2012 2013
, , , . , 2011 6% ( 2010 7%). , . - , 1,5 , 17% 2010 .
-
58
7,8%. 2012 , , 5% +/-1,5 .
2011 14% 2 . . 2011 7% 9,5%.
, , 2012 , , , 2012 1 (. .), , 2 . ., 2 2012 - 4,5% . , , , - ,
. , , , , , () , . , 2011 11,75%, 5,9%. , , , 2 , .
, , , , .
. . 2009 17,5% 8% ( 2010 8%), 2011 . , 2011 6 ( 8%, 2011 11% ,
14% ). 100 . , , , , , .
,
-
59
, 1,5% 0,08% . , 5 . . , .. 9% (14% -5% = 9%) , () . 300 . .
, , , .
. , 2011 15 - , 15 2012 , 2011 , . 31 2011 :
, , ( 31 2011 150 . ). , 31 2012 200 . . Banca Sociala .. 2012
2,3 (472 . ).
, , 11 % 2011 7 . .
30,4% ( 12%).
, 2011 , 800 . .
, , 2,00% 11,5% ( 2010 0,54% 3,04%).
5,4 . ( 13 %) 47 . . 3 . . 2011 BC Banca Social SA, BC Moldova
Agroindbank SA, Victoriabank SA, BC Moldinconbank SA, BC Banca de
Economii SA.
-
60
4 . (17%) 30 . . . , 2011 (, ) 6,5%.
4 . (13,6 %) 32 . . , , , (13,8%) , .
, anca Social 2011 , . , 20 , . 2011 - , , .
31 2011: 472 . ,
43 . (10%). ()
, 2011 . 100 . .
anca Social 13% 3 . .
, , 378 . (21%) 2 . .
43,5 . , . 1,44%, 8,7%.
( 12%) 24,79%.
-
61
: 29,65% ( - 20%); 0,79 ( 1), anca Social , .
anca Social 2011 , :
1. . , - , ( 100 . ), . 2011 , , (2009 2010 .), . 320 . 2 . .
anca Social (17%) , , - 7%. 2011 1600, 1140 460 - .
anca Social : , , , , , , , , , . 2011 , 700 . .
, 14% ( 2010 . 3%).
, , . 25% , 2010 . , , , . .
,
-
62
- , .. . .
2011 , , . , . , , .
- . - 55%. , , , , , , (, , ..), .. .
, , 5,3% 7,1%. , , ( 30 . , , .). 3%. - 55%. , 3 .. (8%), 2 ..
(26%). , , 6 .. (36%) ( 45%).
: 81% ( 77%), 9%, 10%.
2011 , , , (82%). ,
-
63
(, - , ), RISP FIDA ( , ). , , , .
. - () , , (Millenium), (Filiera Vinului), .
, .
7,1% ( , 6,93%). , ( ; ). 60 .
, - , , . , .
, , (, ), ( -). (SOCIAL) , . .
.
-
64
. , , - .
2. . anca Social 2011-2012 , , , / . . 01.01.2012 . 49 20- -, 5
4- -. 7% ( 121 . ).
2011 . 31%, 26%. / . , , .
, . 2011 15 8 , 19 .
, : Commerzbank AG (), Bank of New York , . , .
, , - . , Banca Sociala .. 14 12%, . , 2011 , , , ,
-
65
, . 170 . , 300 . 30% , Western Union, Contact, , .
3. . , . , 380 . ( 21%), 2 . . 80 . (7%), 300 . (39%) , , , ,
(,51% 49%). 2011 , 3 . . , , , .
, anca Social 2012 . , , . , , , , , .
anca Social 2012-2014 - / , , .
, anca Social .
: ,
;
-
66
, ;
, , 2014 . 800 . .
anca Social , :
, ( ), . ;
, , , . ;
, . , , , .
10 % 2014 3 . :
, ;
2012 3,8 ; 2,5 .
,
anca Social
.
. (raider)
.
-
67
, ,
[112, . 418].
:
, -, ,
[116, . 78].
:
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
[160, .78-79].
.
, ,
,
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, , ,
,
), - ,
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, .) [98- 107].
- , . ,
,
2011 2012 .
2011
.
27,5% Moldova-Agroindbank,
78,1% Universalbank, 16,4% , Banca de Economii 5%
-
68
Victoriabank. 40%
ASITO.
:
,
. , BC
Moldova Agroindbank SA
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, . ,
, ,
.
. , .
-
,
[132].
-
69
, 2012 BC Moldova Agroindbank SA
, ,
28% 2011 .
[127].
2012 . , -
2012 2011 0,91 ,
11 2012 . 0,93 .
0,71 1,44 (. . .2.1. 2).
/
2012 . 2012 536,2 . ,
352,4 . 2011 ,
, 2012 ,
2012 2011 94,19% -11,6 . 37,4% -
105,79 . (. . 2.2. 2).
2012 . 11 2012 ,
30.11.2012 . 3 292,1 . 1,13%;
4 042,80 . 1,13% (. . .2.3.
2).
(), 2012
, , ,
. ,
,
2008-2009 . 2011 ,
[95].
, , , . , , 2011 . , , . : , ,
-
70
, ., , .
, , , , , . , .
2012 . , , , , 30 2012 12% 16%, 30 2014 20% [58, . 114].
, , III- , 1 . 1 2012 .
2012 . , , , , (, ) . Moodys Investors Service 4 2012 . 15 .
[110]:
1. :
Bank of America Corporation ( Baa1 2, ); 1
Barclays Plc Goldman Sachs ( 1 3, ); 2
Citigroup Inc ( 3 2, ); 1 2
Credit Suisse Group ( () 2 () 2, );
2
-
71
HSBC ( Aa2 3) 1
;
JPMorgan Chase ( 3 2) 1
;
Morgan Stanley ( 2 1) Royal Bank of Scotland ( 3 1) 1
;
BNP Paribas Credit Agricole ( 3 2); 1
.
2. :
Deutsche Bank ( 3 2) 1
;
Royal Bank of Canada ( Aa1 Aa3) 2
;
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.
, , ,
.
, , ,
, . ,
. 2012 .
Moodys Investors Service 16 26 .
,
. "... , :
, ,
.
", -
Moody's [47].
99
. -
109 66 .
:
,
;
.
-
72
, The Financial Times
2013 ,
2013 .
,
. ,
(3%), 2%, , ,
" ". 2013 . -
, ,
. -, -
. -,
[18].
UBS
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- .
2014 3,4%. ,
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. 7,57,8%.
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2013-. . 3,63,5%
, , ,
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, , ,
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[147].
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, . 2012
:
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(Angela Merkel) ,
.
2012 . 27
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. 200
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.
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. 12 The Wall Street Journal
-
74
,
[72].
2012
, 2013
(ESM),
2014 .
.
: -
;
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,
;
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. -
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Sddeutsche Zeitung Handelsblatt ,
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-
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500 .
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[150].
2.5. 2
( -
)
2008 2012
2013 :
I.
, .
Venture Capital ABIRD Business Ideas Research &
Development
-
77
200
,
, .
II.
:
1. ,
, ,
,
. , Lehman brothers
2008 .,
. - 2008-2010
, ,
.
2. 2008
, .
-
Bear Stearns Lehman Brothers, JPMorgan, Fannie
Mae Freddie Mac, Merrill Lynch Lehman Brothers,
Washington Mutual (WaMu) .
(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation - FDIC)
702 -
11- ,
10 .
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. 2008 $17,6 .
FDIC, ,
1991 .
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.
4. (2008 2012)
.
, , ,
, (, ,
-
78
.).
. ,
(single resolution mechanism SRM),
2012 . (, )
.
,
. - ;
; , ,
;
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500 .
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,
,
.
6.
. ,
2013 ,
.
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. .) ,
,
.
III.
:
1. 2008 2012 .
, ,
. 2009 . ,
2,4%.
-
79
Investprivatbank , ,
.
: BCR Chiinu (-315 . ), Eximbanc(-58 .
), Unibanc (-45 . ), ProCreditBank (-35 . ).
2008 . : Mold-
groindbank ( - 63%), Banca de Economii (- 87%), Victoriabank
(-71%),
Moldindconbank (-76%) Mobiasbank (-79%). Banca Social ..
2008 44%. BK Universalbank SA, 2008 .
(2,6 . ), 86%,
5 . . ,
, 145 . .
2. , ,
.
5%,
10 . , 2010 ., -
,
, ,
, 15 2012.
. , 2010 .
16 2.
14 ,
( Banca Comercial Romn Chiinu S.A, - Unibank),
100% (ExibBank, Businessbanca, Comertbank)
(Victoriabank, Mobiasbanca, Eurocreditbank,
Energbank).
3. 2011 .
, .
,
, , ,
.
,
.
4. ,
, ,
-
80
2003 .
,
. , ,
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,
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.
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, . ,
,
.
, .
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, , 2012 .
1 , , 2 2
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, , ,
- , . ,
, ,
,
, ,
.
IV.
2012 :
1. - 2012
2011 0,91 , 11
-
81
2012 0,93. 0,71 1,44.
2. 2012 /
. 2012 536,2 .
, 352,4 . 2011 .
, 2012 ,
2012 2011 . 94,19% -11,6 .
37,4% -105,79 . .
3.
11 2012 . ,
30.11.2012 . 3 292,1 . 1,13%;
4 042,80 . 1,13%.
4. (), 2012
, , ,
. ,
, 2008-2012
. 2011 .
V. 2012- 2013 :
1. 2012
, , (, )
.
Moodys Investors Service IV 2012 .
15 , ,
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() Credit Suisse Group (),
Bank of America Corporation ( ),
HSBC ( ),
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), Morgan Stanley ( ), BNP Paribas
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16 , 26 ..
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3. , The Financial Times 2013 .,
2013 . ,
.
,
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2012 , 2013- - 4,5% 6,5%.
-
83
3.
3.1.
. () () ( ). [59, . 214].
() .
() , , , .
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shA , D , Q M , .. (2)
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shu AQDMM ,,, . (3.2)
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(3), .. M,D,Q, shA .
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s, s S , .. ,,,1 NssS s.
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VD , , i-
-
86
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F ,...,...,, 1 ruuUU
uui DD .
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,, Psl }.
s
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sl , 1 i -
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tT, t=0,1,2, - , G1(t),G2(t) Fs,
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-
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88
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-
89
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, .
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(assumption), . . , ;
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- (avoidance). . , , , . , , , , , , , . (mitigation) [82, .
120].
; , . . , , . . , , 1 18, 1 7, 8 13, 14 18.
, , . (AV, EF, SLE) . EF SLE, AV ( ) . . , , , - . . Internet-,
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