Ism 101 Ruggiero Presentation 012612 r2

7/29/2019 Ism 101 Ruggiero Presentation 012612 r2

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Sales Operations - Supply Chain

Process Automation

By Mike Ruggiero


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Data, data, everywhere, but none of it matches

Seagate Confidential


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Heatmap: Account Management supply analysis tool

SSD: Single Source of Demand Demand Planning tool

Opti Scenario Planning Solver based production planning tool

DFAT Distribution Forecast Analysis Tool Logistic Estimator/Predictinator WW freight cost calculation

PRIO Channel Allocation/FGI commitment tool

Revenue Planner Price/Costs/Revenue/Margin Plan for 6 qtrs

CTS (Cost-to-Serve) TVC cost analysis

Tools Development at Seagate



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Data, data, everywhere, but none of it matches



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HeatMap DSI Allocation Tool

Hub Inventory & Buffer Targets



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Customer satisfaction is being impacted by poor supply

commitment reliability

It is difficult to reconcile the demand forecast for the next 13-

weeks with what is scheduled to be built, why?

It is difficult to determine if JIT inventory buffer levels for key

customers can be maintained

It is difficult to understand how transit time (lead time) affect both

demand fulfillment and buffer levels

Problem-1 Statement



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Production Build plans are Not in a database but are published

weekly on Excel spreadsheets.

Each Production Planning Market Segment uses a different

publication format.

Transit times for customers are poorly understood at a corporate

level, planning uses generic 3-days for all.

There are multiple methods for calculating customer buffer

requirements.

Problem-1 Underlying issues



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Granularity: per Customer, per tab number (9-digit)

Correlate Future Forecast (either Customer FCST or Judged

Demand) to Build Plan (BP) data

Determine the anticipated Ending Hub Inventory on a weekly

basis

Calculate the DOI (Days of Inventory) Delta, in units, available to

the customer

Short term projection (13 weeks)

HeatMap Requirements



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HeatMap Database



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HeatMap Solution

Main Pivot Table



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HeatMap User Views & Interfaces

Drilldown

Configure Pivot Data

Limit Query Data Configure Pivot Table

1

2

3



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Production Scenario

Planning

12 Seagate Confidential


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During times of severe allocation (demand significantly exceedssupply) Sales and Operations could not agree on what product to

build

Maximum quarterly profit margin was dependent on the type of

manufacturing constrain limiting supply

Appeasing large corporate accounts required at least a limited

amount of lower margin product be built

Business strategy required that certain product be favored over

outers regardless of margin (e.g., capacity, target market such as

consumer products or retail, etc.)

Problem-2 Statement



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Again forecast, product margins, constraints stored in

independent databases or no database

Poor agreement on what product cost should be used (standard

cost, actual cost, others)

Poor agreement on which customers should be prioritized overothers

Complexity of variables made it hard to quantify choices/options

(scenario planning)




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Page 15


Scenario Modeling Application

Supply Constraints


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Page 16


Objective: Max ProfitStandard Margin*Allocation Qty

Manipulate Variables

Scenario Modeling Application

Constraints


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FW31 Manu Forecast Model Results

Seagate Confidential Special HandlingPage 17


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DFAT Distribution

Forecast AnalysisTool



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Distribution forecasting aggregates many smaller customers and

involves forecast for a large number of products

Forecasting is more variable and often appears unrelated to

backlog (usually based on TAM goals)

The weekly forecast process required greater than one-person

week to complete and there was only one person assigned

The forecast was imprecise

Existing process tool had 38 documented steps, required an hour

to product a working copy

Problem-3 Statement



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Again five separate datasets need to be correlated: forecast,

shipments, inventory, backlog, available supply

Data was in multiple reports and not indexed/categorized the

same

Input from sales was informal and different for each sales region

Forecast application was old and manual entry of data was very

time consuming

Process tool used incomplete and unreliable data sources




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Page 21 Seagate Confidential

Objective - Improve forecast analysis

Assemble all relevant data sets in one place

Provide ability to compare forecasts to available supply andidentify opportunities for revenue improvement

Provide ability to rapidly identify gaps between forecast andbacklog

Built-in linearity analysis, by week and month

Automate roll-forward logic for weekly forecast misses


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DFAT - Rapid and accurate analysis


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DFAT Single Build, Wham-whams

DFAT Ti A O t t I t


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DFAT -Time, Accuracy, Output Improvement

Accuracy Able to match regional forecast to supply/backlog on a weekly

basis

Includes Opportunity complexity not in original process

Initially possible once or twice a quarter and took 2-days tocomplete


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Applications and the

User Instrument(Mikes Soapbox)



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Time delays

Disconnects - timeouts

Poor or no warnings

Poor or no error reporting

Product Dependencies

Maintenance and support (Vendor longevity)

User Perceived Application Quality



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Time delays

Disconnects - timeouts

Poor or no warnings

Poor or no error reporting

Product Dependencies

Maintenance and support (Vendor longevity)




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Popular App Web based interface



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Popular App Web based interface



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User interface takes ~1 minute to startup

Poor Java compatibility

Timeouts logout on warning on message

Results:

Some functions disabled, but not others

Almost always save document function disabled

Co-worker lost his job in part due to frustration with thisapplication




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Worlds largest Enterprise Software Provider(Not Microsoft)



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Brief Historical Problem Description Approx. RecoveryDate Time

1. Locked out of Rev Planning DF Extract Web Page 8/2 1.5 hr

2. Locked out of Rev Planning DF Extract Web Page 9/2 1 hr

3. Pricing Download returned 1 months Data not 2 8/30 2 hr

4. 1-Working Upload timeout, 1-Final upload timeout 8/31 1 hr

5. 2-Working Upload timeouts 7/14 1 hr

6. Auto scheduled xfer of Extract to repository failed 9/19 2 hrs

7. Std Cost upload times out after 1 hour wait, multiple timeouts 9/28 2 hrs

8. Working download financials wrong Cost values incorrect 9/28 5 hrs

9. Std Cost/FBC upload to report success, but data not actually uploaded 9/29 1 day

10. Pricing Download returned 1 months Data not 2 10/5 1 hr

11. DF Extract (SMA) data extract contains invalid ST numbers 10/16 2-days12. Auto scheduled xfer of Extract to repository failed 11/1 3 hrs

13. Auto scheduled xfer of Extract to repository failed 11/8 30 min

14. DF Extract Web page inaccessible JAVA Server error 11/15 1.5 hr

15. Working download data incorrect, IE9 problem 11/16 6 hrs

16. Email data files messages taking6 to 8 hours to arrive 11/16 3 hrs

17. Pricing Download returned 1 months Data not 2 11/17 2 hrs

18. Working uploads timing out working at Scotts Valley office 11/17 1.5 days

19. Pricing Upload Failed disconnect after 4-minutes (multiple attempts) 1/8 1 week20. Working Uploads timing out working at Scotts Valley office 1/8-1/9 12 hrs

21. Field: Product Family quoted data incompatible with the application 1/9 18 hrs

22. Working download financials wrong 1/10 4 hrs




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Ism 101 Ruggiero Presentation 012612 r2