Jack Ohman, 1991, The Oregonian

Tsunami Hazard Mitigation in Oregon

Update on FY08-09 AccomplishmentsNTHMP Annual Meeting

Pasadena, California

January 27, 2010

Robert C. WitterOregon Department of Geology

Althea TurnerOregon Emergency

Management

Jack Ohman, 1991, The Oregonian

New research by Chris Goldfinger places the probability of the next Cascadia earthquake at about

80% by 2059

January 27, 2010 Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

State of Oregon FY08 NTHMP Grant

OverviewTotal award: $253,910FY08 Objectives

1. Initiate tsunami hazard assessment in Bandon, Oregon.

2. Promote tsunami risk mitigation and preparedness.

3. Support NWS TsunamiReady program.


FY08 Objective 1:Bandon Tsunami Hazard

Assessment• Tasks Accomplished

(1a) Cascadia earthquake source model completed.(1b) Tsunami deposits data compiled for Bandon area.(1c) Unstructured computational grid generated;Over 50 test simulations completed at Bradley Lake;Final inundation runs (30) planned for March 2010.(1d) Project management ongoing;Contributed to NTHMP partnership;Cochair, NTHMP Mapping & Modeling Subcommittee;Preparation of GIS database and final report, spring-

summer 2010.


FY08 Objective 1:Bandon Tsunami Hazard

Assessment• Issues

– Scheduling conflicts among science team delayed development of earthquake source model.

– Incorporating new lidar data into computational grid proved more time consuming than expected.

• Fixes– No cost one-year extension granted.


FY08 Objective 2:Promote Tsunami Preparedness• Tasks Accomplished

(2a) Attended over 15 outreach and education events;Informed ODOT on earthquake and tsunami hazards.

(2b) Posted interactive tsunami evacuation maps online;http://www.nanoos.org/data/products/oregon_tsunami_evacuation_zones/index.php

Helped Cannon Beach install evacuation map signs.(2c) Carried out first annual Tsunami Road Show.(2d) Provided technical assistance to Pacific Peril exercise.(2e) Produced 8-min Oregon tsunami preparedness video in

partnership with USGS.


FY08 Objective 2:Promote Tsunami Preparedness• Issues

– NTHMP Subcommittee co-chairs requested clarification on subtasks 2b – 2e .

– All subtasks were not explicitly described in FY08 proposal, which led to confusion.

– Subtasks 2b – 2e contribute to overall outcomes targeted by Objective 2 and support task 2a.

– Worked with Oregon Tsunami Advisory Council to develop FY09-012 Oregon Tsunami Outreach Program.


FY08 Objective 3:TsunamiReady Support

• Tasks Accomplished(3a) Design for Lincoln City blue-lens strobe warning

signals complete; installation planned for Jan. 2010;Lincoln City renewed TsunamiReady designation.

(3b) Procured 326 tsunami signs for Tillamook County, Lincoln City, Yachats, and Coos Bay (complete).

• Issues– No cost one-year extension granted to complete

both projects.


State of Oregon FY09 NTHMP Grant

OverviewTotal award: $710,992FY09 Objectives

1. Complete new generation of tsunami inundation maps for Oregon.

2. Empower public to prepare for tsunamis and build communities resilient to a broad spectrum of coastal hazards.

3. Build a sustainable, community-based outreach and education program that supports TsunamiReady.


FY09 Objective 1:New Tsunami Inundation Maps

• Progress on Tasks(1.1.1) Bandon tsunami simulations underway;(1.1.2) Compilation of geologic evidence for

prehistoric tsunamis in Bandon area complete;(1.1.3) Project management ongoing; GIS database

and final report planned for spring-summer 2010.(1.2.1) Tsunami deposits data compiled for southern

OR;(1.2.2) Field checking planned for summer 2010;(1.2.3) Supporting NGDC and CA with development of

tsunami deposits database.


FY09 Objective 1:New Tsunami Inundation Maps• Progress Continued

(1.3) Tsunami simulations for southern Oregon coast;

(1.3.1) DEM development ongoing; generation of computational grid(s) planned for April-May 2010;

(1.3.2) Selected southern Oregon tsunami simulations planned June-July 2010;

(1.3.3) Preparation of GIS database and final report planned for fall 2010.


FY09 Objective 1:New Tsunami Inundation Maps• Issues

– Grid resolution limits computational speed– Southern Oregon tsunami simulations delayed

to summer 2010


FY09 Objective 2:Empower Public to Prepare

• Progress on Tasks(2.1) Produce tsunami evacuation maps for 7 coastal

communities in southern Oregon (fall 2010).(2.2) Update online tsunami evacuation map (fall 2010).(2.3) Post new data to Tsunami Information

Clearinghouse (fall 2010).

• Issues– Evacuation maps and update to online data

contingent on completing southern Oregon inundation map by fall 2010.


FY09 Objective 3:Sustainable, Grassroots Outreach• Progress on Tasks

(3.1) Identify and support Tsunami Outreach Coordinator (complete).

(3.2) Help 3 communities meet TsunamiReady requirements (ongoing progress)

(3.3) Contribute to Tsunami Information Clearinghouse (ongoing)

(3.4) Identify 3 community organizers (February 2010)

(3.5) Coordinate the 2010 Tsunami Road Show (April 2010)


FY09 Objective 3:Sustainable, Grassroots Outreach• Issues

– Unexpected administrative workload delayed contract for Tsunami Outreach Coordinator.

– Sensitivities related to selecting target communities.

• Fixes– Careful evaluation of target communities and

upfront outreach campaign to disseminate Outreach Program information to coastal cities and counties.


Oregon FY10 Project Plan

Task NTHMP Performance Metrics Supported

Requested

Funds

1.1 Compile tsunami deposits data, southern Tillamook County

Produce inundation maps that meet NTHMP guidelines by 2012

$36,536

1.2 Complete Tillamook Co. tsunami inundation map

Complete inundation maps for all threatened communities in Oregon by 2013

$328,824

Total Requested for Objective 1: $365,360


Objective 1: Mapping & Modeling – Aug. 1, 2010 to July 31, 2011



Requested

Funds

2.1 Tsunami evacuation maps for 11 communities, Tillamook County

Increase the number of tsunami evacuation maps by 10% annually

$70,456

2.2 Update online tsunami evacuation map

Increase the percentage of NTHMP products available on the web to 90% by 2012

$15,098

2.3 Release Tsunami Information Clearing-house (online)

Increase the percentage of NTHMP products available on the web to 90% by 2012;Post 100% if tsunami evacuation maps to the NTHMP web repository by 2012

$15,098



Objective 2: Mitigation and Education – Aug. 1, 2010 to July 31, 2011



Requested

Funds

3.1 Support Tsunami Outreach Coordinator

Establishing more tsunami resilient communities;Promote a culture of tsunami preparedness and response.

$94,859

3.2 Help 3 communities meet TsunamiReady guidelines

Increase the number of recognized TsunamiReadycommunities to 105 in 2013;Annually increase local warning reception capabilities by 10%, based on the baseline established by 2010.

$17,658

3.3 Disseminate online education information to communities

Explore the feasibility of integrating tsunami information into K-12 education;Facilitate educational events.

$16,599

3.4 Support community organizers for 3 areas


$117,720


Objective 3: TsunamiReady Support



Requested

Funds

3.5 Coordinate the 2011 Tsunami Road Show


$5,886


TOTAL REQUESTED FOR FY2010: $718,733


Objective 3: TsunamiReady Support (continued)

How many outreach activities in FY08?

• Briefed Gleneden Beach Fire District on tsunami hazards – 7/23/09• Met with Taft High School students about tsunamis – 10/6/08• Briefed Seaside School District on tsunami hazards – 10/10/08• Oregon Coast Fire Chief’s Association semi-annual meeting – 2/6/09• Taped video documentary with Oregon Field Guide – 2/25/09

http://www.opb.org/programs/ofg/segments/view/1715

• Briefed Rockaway City Council on tsunami hazards – 3/25/09• 2009 Tsunami Road Show, 7 cities in 7 days – 4/4/09 to 4/10/09• Townhall meeting on tsunami hazards, Newport City Hall – 4/21/09• Oregon Coast Fire Chief’s Association semi-annual meeting – 7/17/09

Total outreach and public education events attended: >15

http://www.opb.org/programs/ofg/segments/view/1715

Documents

Jack Ohman, 1991, The Oregonian