James PintoProject Scientist II

NCAR Research Applications Laboratorypinto@ucar.edu

NCAR/RAL Perspective onAviation-based Requirements for RUA

Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015

Alaska C&VFAA camera locations

- Provide 1st guess analysis to AAWU for developing C&V charts - Generate analysis that combines available met data (METAR, satellite, etc) with C&V info from FAA cameras - Effort currently lead by Rita Roberts (RAL) and Bob Hallowell (MIT-LL) - Requirements: Cloud base analysis, RH trends

1000 camera locations with multiple view angles.

VFR MVFR

VFRMVFRIFR

Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015

Dust Storm Analysis and NowcastsWRF-chem Aerosol Optical Depth

- builds on WRF-Chem modeling framework - implemented for Saudi Arabia’s Presidency of Meteorology & Environment (PME)

> guidance on aerosol optical depth, all dust, & dust near surface - Requirements: Surface wind gusts, stability profiles, surface moisture

MODIS Optical Depth

Slide courtesy Yubao Lui (RAL)

Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015

MCS InitiationMCS Detection JJA 2013 OBS MCS-I Frequency

Pinto et al. 2015

• Peak frequency 8% / (500 km)2 in SE• Mean Frequency = 0.3 % / (500 km)2

Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015

MCS Initiation - PredictionMCS Initiation Detection MCS-I Likelihood

Requirements: Improved model initialization – boundary locations, stability profiles, PBL moisture

mem1

mem2

memNReliability

MCS-I within 125 km +/- 1 hr

Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015

Nowcasting MCS Initiation with Data Mining

- Random Forest to asses which variables most useful for predicting MCS Initiation - Ahijevych et al. 2015 - Requirements: Stability, Moisture (surface and integrated), shear, boundaries

HRRR Predictors Ordered By Mean Importance

Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015

Turbulence Analysis and Nowcasts NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA)

◦ Prototype running in real-time over entire CONUS (133 NEXRADS)◦ 5 min updates

NEXRAD

EDR

Slide courtesy Bob Sharman (RAL)

- Requirements: 15 min trends in stability, u,v,w, hydrometeor profiles

~400 aircraft w/ in situ EDR

Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015

Precip Type & Icing Potential Analysis

- EOL’s Particle identification software uses dual polarization, temperature profile analysis (slide courtesy Scott Ellis) - Requirements: T,q(z) accurately depicting melt layer

Retrieval Algorithms using Polarimetric Radar Data

Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015

Requirements Summary

C&V - Cloud base Analysis, RH(z) trends

Convection - Stability, Moisture (surface and integrated), shear, boundaries

Turbulence - 15 min trends in stability, u,v,w profiles

Precip Type - T,q(z) especial in vicinity accurately depicting melt layer

Icing - T,q(z), cloud geometry, liquid water content, specific humidity

Dust Storm/ Haze - Requirements: Surface wind gusts, stability profiles, surface moisture, optical depth

Variable-dependent Analysis Uncertainty Critical

Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015

Aviation-relevant Projects in RAL• Ceiling and Visibility - Combine satellite, metars, FAA camera into C&V analysis for AK - Haze and dust storms analysis/prediction

• Inflight Icing - CIP/FIP - Probability of icing, severity, supercooled liquid drops - High ice water content (HIWC) - Precip type retrievals from polarimetric radar

• Turbulence and Wind Shear - NCAR Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) - In situ Eddy Dissipation Ratio (EDR) - Juneau Airport Wind System (JAWS)

• Convection - Probabilistic MCS-I nowcasting - Lightning analysis and nowcasting

RUA Nowcasting Workshop, 3-4 Jun 2015