January 28 th 2014

January 28th 2014

Latin America´s Decade

Latinobarometro 1995-2014

Marta Lagos

Presented at the Wilson Center

Q. With which of the following statements do you agree most? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one; for people like me, it doesn’t matter whether we have a democratic or non-democratic regime, DNA/DNK.

SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013

Source: Latinobarómetro 1995-2013

Source: Latinobarómetro 2013

SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACYTOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013 BY EDUCATION, AGE AND SEX -TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013

Q. With which of the following statements do you agree most? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one; for people like me, it doesn’t matter whether we have a democratic or non-democratic regime. * Here only ‘Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’ .

CHURCHILLIAN DEMOCRACY TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2002-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013


Q. Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement? Democracy may have problems but it is the best system of government. * Here only ‘Strongly agree’ plus ‘Agree’.

FULL DEMOCRACYTOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013

Q. In your opinion, how much of a democracy is (country)? * Here only ‘A democracy, with major problems’.


Q. Has your household run out of money to buy food at any time during the past 12 months? * Here only ‘Yes’.


NOT ENOUGH MONEY TO BUY FOODTOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013

67

1213

141414

1515

1616

1919

2325

2627

3238

0 10 20 30 40

VenezuelaUruguay

MexicoPanama

Costa RicaEcuador

GuatemalaHonduras

Dominican Rep.Colombia

El SalvadorParaguay

Latin AmericaNicaragua

PeruArgentina

BoliviaBrazilChile

NOT IN THE LEFT-RIGHT SCALEQ. In politics, people normally speak of "left" and "right". On a scale where 0 is left and 10 is right, where would you place yourself? *Here only: ‘DNA’ plus ‘DNK’ plus ‘None’.



DEMOCRACY CAN WORK WITHOUT POLITICAL PARTIES TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1997-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013

Q. Some people say that without political parties there can be no democracy while others say that democracy can work without political parties. Which is closer to your view? * Here only ‘Democracy can work without political parties’.


Q. Some people say that without a National Congress there can be no democracy while others say that democracy can work without a National Congress. Which is closer to your view? * Here only ‘Democracy can work without a National Congress’.

SATISFACTION WITH DEMOCRACY TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013


Q. In general, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with the working of the democracy in (country)? * Here only ‘Very satisfied’ plus ‘Somewhat satisfied’ and ‘Not very satisfied’ plus ‘Not at all satisfied’ .

Source: Latinobarómetro and Eurobarometer 1995-2013 NOTA PONER EUROBAROMETER EN LEYENDA

SATISFACTION WITH DEMOCRACY TOTAL LATIN AMERICA AND EUROPE 1995-2013

Q. In general, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with the working of the democracy in (country)? * Here only ‘Very satisfied’ plus ‘Somewhat satisfied’.

Q. Do you approve or not of the performance of the government led by President (name)? * Here only ‘Approve’.


GOVERNMENT APPROVALTOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2002-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013

INTEREST IN POLITICSTOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013


Q. How interested would you say you are in politics? Very interested, ‘somewhat interested, not very interested or not at all interested? * Here only ‘Very interested’ and ‘Somewhat interested’.

Chile and Peru, two countries with high

economic growth rates and low levels of interest in politics

WILLINGNESS TO PROTEST ABOUT…TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013Q. On a scale from 1 to 10 where 1 means “not at all” and 10 means “very”, how willing would you be to demonstrate and protest about…?


EXPECTATIONS

SATISFACTION WITH LIFETOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1997-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013


Q. Generally speaking, would you say that you are satisfied with your life? Would you say that you are....? * Here only ‘Very satisfied’ plus ‘Somewhat satisfied’.


PERCEPTION OF PROGRESS TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013Q. Would you say that this country is progressing, is at a standstill or is in decline? * Here only ‘Is progressing’.

PERCEPTION OF PROGRESS TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2011-2013

Source: Latinobarómetro 2011 – 2013

Q. Would you say that this country is progressing, is at a standstill or is in decline? * Here only ‘Is progressing'.

Half of countries progress between 2011

and 2013.

COUNTRY’S CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013


Countries in difficulty

Q. In general, how would you describe the country’s current economic situation? Would you say it is very good, good, about average, bad or very bad? * Here only ‘Bad’ plus ‘Very bad’.

FUTURE PERSONAL ECONOMIC SITUATIONTOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2001-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013


Q. In the next 12 months, do you think your economic situation and that of your family will be much better, a littlebetter, about the same, a little worse or much worse than now? * Here only 'Much better' plus 'A little better'.

Future expectations increase given strong perceptions of a better economic situation.

ECONOMIC SENTIMENT2013

Economic sentiment is higher for personal situation than that of

the country.

FAIRNESS OF INCOME DISTRIBUTIONTOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2001-2013 - TOTALS BY OCUNTRY 2013


Q. How fair do you think income distribution is in (country)? Very fair, fair, unfair or very unfair. * Here only ‘Very fair’ plus ‘Unfair’.

FAIRNESS OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2010-2013


Q. How fair do you think income distribution is in (country)? Very fair, fair, unfair or very unfair. *Here only ‘ Very fair’ plus ‘Fair’.


HOT WATERTOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013Q. Do you or any member of your family have any of the following goods? * Here only ‘Yes’ for hot water.


Q. Do the salary you receive and your total family income allow you to cover your needs in a satisfactory manner? Which of the following statements describes your situation? * Here only ‘It’s not enough, we have problems’ plus ‘It’s not enough, we have major problems’.

SUBJECTIVE INCOME: IT’S NOT ENOUGHTOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY

COUNTRY’S MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013

Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in your country? Open question. * Here only answers with more than 3%.


SUMMARY: MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMECONOMIC PROBLEMS/CRIME TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2007-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013

Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in your country? * Here only ‘Unemployment’ plus ‘Economy/economic/financial problems’ plus ‘Poverty’ and ‘Crime’.


2013 ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in the country? * Here only ’Unemployment’ plus ‘Crime’.

MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM: CRIME AND UNEMPLOYMENTTOTAL LATINA AMERICA 1995-2013 – TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013


CORRUPTION CRIMEECONOMIC PROBLEMS

COUNTRY’S MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in your country? Open question. *Here only ‘Corruption’, ‘Crime’ and ‘Economic problems’ (the economy, crime, poverty and unemployment).


CAN THE GOVERNMENT SOLVE PROBLEMS DURING THE NEXT FIVE YEARS? TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013Q. How likely is it that the government will solve the most important problem you identified within the next five years? Very likely, likely, not very likely or not at all likely. * Here only ‘Very likely’ plus ‘Likely’ and ‘Not very likely’ plus ‘Not at all likely’


LIKELY NOT LIKELY

CAN THE STATE SOLVE THE FOLLOWING PROBLEMS? TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 – TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013

Q. To what extent do you think the state can solve the problem of crime? The state can solve all the problem, a large part of the problem, a small part of the problem or the state cannot solve the problem. * Here only ‘All the problem’ plus ‘A large part of the problem’.


CRIME

MIDDLE CLASS IN LATIN AMERICAContrast between World Bank and

self clasification of class in Latinobarómetro

WB 2009 LB 2013 DIFFERENCE

Country

Poor / vulnerable

Middle Class

Upper Class

Low Middle UpperLow class Difference LB-WB

Middle class

Difference LB-WB

Bolivia 82 17 1 39 53 5 -43 36Ecuador 79 21 1 44 51 5 -35 30Mexico 72 26 1 39 49 11 -33 23Peru 75 25 1 46 48 5 -29 23Venezuela 81 18 0 54 38 5 -27 20Paraguay 75 24 1 49 43 4 -26 19Costa Rica 60 37 3 40 49 10 -20 12Panama 68 30 2 50 41 6 -18 11Dominican Republic

77 22 1 62 33 5 -15 11

Colombia 67 30 3 57 34 8 -10 4Honduras 83 17 1 74 20 4 -9 3LAC 67 30 2 58 36 4 -9 6El Salvador 83 16 1 76 16 2 -7 0Argentina 51 46 2 46 50 4 -5 4Brazil 66 32 3 62 28 8 -4 -4Uruguay 40 56 4 54 38 7 14 -18Chile 53 42 5 68 30 2 15 -12

CLASS STATUS:LATINOBAROMETRO VERSUS WORLD BANK

CLASS STATUS: LATINOBAROMETRO´S DIFFERENCE WITH WORLD BANK

CLASS: LATINOBAROMETRO & WORLD BANK AVERAGE FOR LATIN AMERICA 2013- 2009Q. People sometimes describe themselves as belonging to a social class. Which social class would you describe yourself as belonging to...?

Source: Latinobarómetro 2013 World Bank 2009.( “low”=low + vulnerable class)

SOCIAL CLASS: SELF-CLASSIFICATIONTOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013


Q. People sometimes describe themselves as belonging to a social class. Which social class would you describe yourself as belonging to…? * Here only ‘High’ plus ‘Upper-middle’, ‘Middle’ and ‘Lower-middle’ plus ‘Low’.

HIGH MIDDLE LOW

EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY BETWEEN THE LAST TWO GENERATIONSTOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013

Q. What level of education do you have? What was the last year you completed?Q. What level of education did your parents have?


PaísLATINOBARÓMETRO

2008*LAPOP 2008** WVS Wave 2005***

Argentina 77 6,2 91Bolivia 77 5,3Brazil 82 5,2Chile 70 5,2 82Colombia 82 5,4Costa Rica 78 5,7Ecuador 60 5El Salvador 63 5,1Guatemala 58 4,6Honduras 66 4,6Mexico 69 5,1 80Nicaragua 67 4,6Panama 71 5,3Paraguay 70 4,8Peru 63 4,9 89Dominican Rep. 79

5,5

Uruguay 88 6,1Venezuela 86 6 93

Latin America 73 5,3 87

Churchillian Democracy

CountryLATINOBARÓMETRO

2013*LAPOP2012**

DIFFERENCE

Argentina 73 Bolivia 61 Brazil 49 66 -22Chile 63

Colombia 52 72 -20Costa Rica 53 87 -34Ecuador 62 70 -8El Salvador 49 72 -23Guatemala 41 66 -25Honduras 44 69 -25Mexico 37 75 -38Nicaragua 50 84 -34Panama 49 84 -35Paraguay 50 63 -13Peru 56 72 -16Dominican Rep. 60 75 -15Uruguay 71 87 -16Venezuela 87 Latin America 56 75 -19

Support for Democracy: Democracy is preferable to any other form of government

Table 1. A Statistical Model of Support for Democracy and Satisfaction with Democracy: Logistic Regression. Democracy

Preferable Democracy Best system

Reject Military Government

Regime Indifference

Satisfaction with Democracy

Coef. Sig. Coef. Sig. Coef. Sig. Coef. Sig. B Sig. DEMOGRAPHICS Sex (male) .10 * .11 * -.05 -.05 .01 Cohort prior to 1960 .29 *** .20 ** .18 ** -.35 *** .16 ** Cohort 1960-1973 .13 * .15 * .17 ** -.13 * .13 * Cohort 1974-1983 .06 -.10 .06 .07 .13 * Education .15 *** .14 *** .11 *** -.14 *** .00 Subjective income .02 .01 .01 -.07 * -.05 POLITICAL CULTURE Political interest .14 ** .07 -.09 * -.42 *** .14 ** Internal political efficacy .02 .15 ** .15 *** -.09 -.02 Social trust .06 .15 * -.10 * -.23 *** .34 *** Political trust .04 * .23 *** -.01 -.06 * .34 *** Partisanship .10 *** .05 * -.02 -.08 *** .18 *** IDEOLOGY Left-Right self-placement .02 .07 * -.17 *** -.07 .04 Free market support index .15 *** .26 *** .03 -.01 .10 *** Religiosity -.04 -.03 -.05 * .00 -.03 PERFORMANCE Economic evaluations .03 * .09 *** .03 -.06 ** .23 *** Country progress .23 *** .24 *** .12 ** -.11 .70 *** Income distribution -.02 .07 * -.10 ** -.02 .49 *** VICTIMIZATION Victim of crime -.04 -.23 *** .00 .14 ** -.14 ** Victim of discrimination -.21 *** -.24 *** -.18 *** .21 *** -.30 *** Victim of Corruption -.25 *** -.13 -.10 .23 ** -.04 Constant -.69 *** -.64 *** .62 *** -.17 -3.52 *** Percent correctly predicted 64.5 79.9 63.7 83.9 70 R-Square: Cox&Snell .04 .06 .01 .03 .22 Nagterlkerke .05 .10 .02 .05 .29

Levels of statistical significance: * p<.05; **p<.01; *** p<:001. Note: Cohorts refer to years of birth (cohort born 1984-1994 is the reference category).

Documents

January 28 th 2014