Japan PUB WG, SAKE SAKE, Suimon Adventure for Knowledge Evolution

Progress and Planning

Yasuto TACHIKAWADisaster Prevention Research Institute

Kyoto University

Gauged BasinGauged BasinWG1 Establishment of a guideline for selecting hydrologic models through a development of uncertainty evaluation indices

LocalLocalScaleScale

Human ActivityHuman Activity

WG2 Estimating frequencies of hydrologic extreme events in ungauged basins by using scaling, regionalization, and historical record analysis

WG3 Relating hydrologic diversity to landscape elements to establish a realistic PUB model

WG5 Downscaling of global hydrologic information for local scale watershed managements in ungauged basins

GlobalGlobalScaleScale

Ungauged BasinUngauged Basin

WG4 Global-scale hydrological modeling considering interaction between natural variation and anthropogenic activities.

Japanese PUB WG, SAKE

WG2 Estimating frequencies of hydrologic extreme events in ungauged basins by using scaling, regionalization, and historical record analysis

Kuzuha et al., 2004

1 ha10 ha1 km2

10 km2

100 km2

1000 km2

Spatial Scale

Hillslope processes

Processes controlling hydrological response

Channel processes

Rainfall variability

Landscape elements

・Geomorphology・ Geology・ Climate・ Vegetation・ Land Cover

WG3 Relating hydrologic diversity to landscape elements to establish a realistic PUB model

Understand how much the Hydro-diversity and search criteria for ClassificationUnderstand how much the Hydro-diversity depends on spatial scale and landscape elementsEstablish a Model for PUB with Realistic Parameters and evaluate its uncertainty for each Classification and various spatial scales

WG4 Global-scale hydrological modeling considering interaction between natural variation and anthropogenic activities

Hanasaki, Oki, Kanae, 2004

WG5 Downscaling of global hydrologic information for local scale watershed managements in ungauged basins

Physically based downscaling method

Stochastic downscaling method

Ungauged Basin

JAPAN PUB NATIONAL WORKSHOP,JAPAN PUB NATIONAL WORKSHOP,Nov. 3-5, 2004Nov. 3-5, 2004

Two projects to link PUB Two projects to link PUB WGsWGs

1. How hydrologic model could/can predict the floods hit Japan in 2004?

When we choose and identify a flood runoff model, we usually do not have severe flood data (1/100 flood etc.).

2. How hydrologic models work at ungauged basins? Blind Test

Blind test of hydrologic models at(1) Maecham River basin in Thailand.(2) Saloween River basin in Burma.

Give forcing data created from global scale data set.

Design of blind test is important. (1) What conditions we suppose? Suppose completely no data? Or . . . ?(2) How the results of blind test utilize to improve models and understanding?

2003-2004

Nov. 2003 2nd National WS to form WGsFeb. 2004 Australia – Japan PUB WGs kick off meeting at PerthJuly 2004 PUB session at AOGS-APHWNov. 2004 3rd National WSNov. 2004 PUB Session in WRMinCE at Colombo, Sri LankaJan. 2005 PUB/LSM WS at KyotoMar. 2005 Mae Cham Data WS

2005

June 20-24 AOGS, Flood Session

August 3-5 PUB session at Society of Hydrology and Water

Resources in Japan

October 31- PUB WS at Hohai University at Namjing, China

November PUB National WS

PUB (Prediction in Ungauged Basins) Session on Methodology of Trans-Regional

Application of Hydrological Models

International Conference on Sustainable Water Resources Management in Changing Environment of the Monsoon

(WRMinCE)Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 17, 2004

- 12 Presentation Related to Methodology of Trans-Regional application of Hydrological Models

- General Discussion (Working Group in the Region)

Conclusions from PUB related Discussion with Special Focus to

South Asia

Hydrological Prediction is an urgent need in the South Asia.Hydrological data in the region is very limited, poorly gauged and quality is low.Participants showed great interest in PUB and are interested in forming WG in the region for PUB research.The delegates from Nepal, India, Bangladesh, and Uganda will discuss forming PUB WGs in their countries.

Thai PUB WG has been newly formed.Sri Lanka PUB WG will be formed very near future. Nepalese PUB WG has been newly formed.

PUB/LSM at Kyoto, Jan. 20-22, 2005PUB/LSM at Kyoto, Jan. 20-22, 2005

PUB/LSM at Kyoto, Jan. 20-22, 2005Jan. 20-22, 2005

21 presentation including invited researchers: Kenji Tanaka, Kyoto University Murugesu Sivapalan, University of Western Austlaria Xu Liang, UC Berkeley Peter Troch, Wageningen University Dawen Yang, Tsinghua University Barry Croke, Australian National Univ.) Liliang REN, Hohai UniversityHohai University Hyun-Suk Shin, Pusan National University Sam-Hee Lee, Korean Institute of Construction

TechnplogyGeneral discussions

PUB/LSM at Kyoto, Jan. 20-22, 2005

Session 1 : Land surface models (LSMs) on a global scale and hydrological watershed models (HWMs) for macro-scale applications.Session 2 : Frontier of LSM development : interfaces with other discipline.Session 3 : Uncertainties, quality controls, and correction techniques in model formulation, coding, parameters, forcing, and initial conditions.Session 4 : PUB and PUB activity in Asia.Session 5 : Needs for hydrological modeling: Where is the scientific frontier, which is the technical cutting edge, and what are the societal needs?

2005

June 20-24 AOGS, Flood Session

August 3-5 PUB session at Society of Hydrology and Water

Resources in Japan

October 29-31 PUB WS at Hohai University at Namjing, China

November PUB Domestic WS

Gauged BasinGauged BasinWG1 Establishment of a guideline for selecting hydrologic models through a development of uncertainty evaluation indices

LocalLocalScaleScale

Human ActivityHuman Activity

WG2 Estimating frequencies of hydrologic extreme events in ungauged basins by using scaling, regionalization, and historical record analysis

WG3 Relating hydrologic diversity to landscape elements to establish a realistic PUB model

WG5 Downscaling of global hydrologic information for local scale watershed managements in ungauged basins

GlobalGlobalScaleScale

Ungauged BasinUngauged Basin

WG4 Global-scale hydrological modeling considering interaction between natural variation and anthropogenic activities.

Japanese PUB WG, SAKE

Gauged BasinGauged BasinWG1 Uncertainty evaluation andmodel construction guideline

LocalLocalScaleScale Human ActivityHuman Activity

WG2 Estimating frequencies of hydrologic extreme events in ungauged basins

WG3 Dominant hydrologic processes and scale

WG5 Downscaling for watershed management

GlobalGlobalScaleScale

Ungauged BasinUngauged Basin

WG4 Global-scale modeling including natural variation and anthropogenic activities