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June 23, 2000(C) Masataka Yamada1 Anticipatory (Eagerly-awaited) Good/Service: Estimating Sales Patterns of Music CDs by Weibull Distribution Model Masataka

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  • Anticipatory (Eagerly-awaited) Good/Service: Estimating Sales Patterns of Music CDs by Weibull Distribution ModelMasataka YamadaKyoto Sangyo [email protected] FurukawaEvergreen Japan Corporation [email protected] KatoIihara Management [email protected] Science Conference 2000, UCLA FR-A4, 9:00-10:30

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • 1 IntroductionFrom diffusion theory point of view, we define anticipatory (eagerly-awaited) good/service for one of products that indicate rapidly penetrating sales curves to give marketers new strategic implications. We pick up CD album as one of the anticipatory goods. Then, we test the hypothesis that the diffusion pattern of an anticipatory good/service is a rapidly penetrating one.

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • 1 Introduction (continued)Second, we found that the diffusion patterns of anticipatory goods are much sharper than those of first purchases of groceries comparing the goodness of fit between Bass diffusion model and Weibull distribution model on the sales data of music CDs. Hence, those goods indicating sharper diffusion curves can be identified as anticipatory goods.Finally, we consider marketing strategy of new product introductions for anticipatory goods.

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • 1.1 Classification of Products in MarketingBefore we proceed to anticipatory good/service, we would like to review conventional product classifications. What is a product? A product is anything that can be offered to a market for attention, acquisition, use, or consumption that might satisfy a want or need. It includes physical objects, services, persons, places, organizations, and ideas (P. Kotler, 1988).

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • Physical products:automobiles, toasters, shoes, eggs and booksServices (Service Products):haircuts, concerts, and vacationsPersons:Barbra Streisand, we give her attention, buy her records, and attend her concertsPlaces:Hawaii can be marketed, in the sense of either buying some land in Hawaii or taking a vacation there.

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • Organizations:The American Red Cross can be marketed, in the sense that we feel positive toward it and will support it. Ideas:family planning, safe driving

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  • Three Levels of ProductCore Product: what is the buyer really buying? Core benefit or serviceTangible Product: a quality level, features, styling, a brand name, and packaging.Augmented Product:delivery and credit, installation, after sale service, and warranty.

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  • Some Examples of Product ClassificationsNondurable goods, Durable goods and Services based on their durability or tangibility.

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  • Consumer goods classification Consumer goods are classified on the basis of consumer shopping habits because they have implications for marketing strategy:

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  • Industrial goods classification Industrial goods can be classified in terms of how they enter the production process and their relative costliness:

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  • What is the purpose of product classifications?Marketers believe that each product type has an appropriate marketing-mix strategy. Or it gives marketers implications for marketing strategy.

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • An approach to Product Classification from Diffusion Theory of New Product We would like to add another approach to classify product for the decision making of marketing strategy from diffusion theory of new products .

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • 2 Past Researches of Diffusion Patterns of New ProductsFourt and Woodlock (1960), q=0, Exponential Curve, Grocery ProductsMansfield (1961), p=0, Logistic Curve, Industrial ProductsBass(1969), combined the above two Lekvall and Wahlbin (1973) Gatignon and Robertson (1985), 29 propositionsBayus(1993), Consumer Electronics and Electric AppliancesSawhney And Eliashberg (1996), Movies

    Patterns can be regarded as being continuous from S-shaped ones to J-shaped ones.

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • Correspondence between Bayus' Segments and the Classes

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • (made from Table 1 on p. 123, Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996)

    (C) Masataka Yamada

    Sheet1

    (Table 1 on p. 123, Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996)

    Name of MoviepqmType of PatternClass

    1Terminator 2240.5530142.5320.000ExponentialV

    2Robin Hood200.3190141.7800.000ExponentialV

    3The Rocketeer170.3470.37142.8040.935Gen. GammaIII

    4Dying Young100.56032.2180.000ExponentialV

    5Naked Gun 2-1/2190.557073.7030.000ExponentialV

    6The Doctor21*********0.000******

    7V.I. Warshowski100.5530.8589.6070.645Erlang-2III

    8Mobsters100.6510.16117.8014.043Gen. GammaV

    9Hot Shots!160.279073.5620.000ExponentialV

    10Doc Hollywood190.193065.8830.000ExponentialV

    11Die Hard 2150.3980.149102.7192.671Gen. GammaIV

    12Days of Thunder130.2950.42171.3840.701Gen. GammaIII

    13Betsy's Wedding100.1990.72418.9490.275Erlang-2III

    14Exorcist III60.2881.35322.0620.213Erlang-2II

    15Arachnophobia100.1810.87642.9110.207Erlang-2II

    16Ghost200.1161.0268.6010.114Erlang-2II

    17Bird on a Wire19*********0.000******

    18Cadillac Man12*********0.000******

    19Wild at Heart110.1741.34610.4980.129Erlang-2II

    3

    (Table 1 on p. 123, Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996)

    pqmType of Pattern

    1Terminator 2240.5530142.5320.000ExponentialV

    2Robin Hood200.3190141.7800.000ExponentialV

    3The Rocketeer170.3470.37142.8040.935Gen. GammaIII

    4Dying Young100.56032.2180.000ExponentialV

    5Naked Gun 2-1/2190.557073.7030.000ExponentialV

    6The Doctor21*********0.000******

    7V.I. Warshowski100.5530.8589.6070.645Erlang-2III

    8Mobsters100.6510.16117.8014.043Gen. GammaV

    9Hot Shots!160.279073.5620.000ExponentialV

    10Doc Hollywood190.193065.8830.000ExponentialV

    11Die Hard 2150.3980.149102.7192.671Gen. GammaIV

    12Days of Thunder130.2950.42171.3840.701Gen. GammaIII

    13Betsy's Wedding100.1990.72418.9490.275Erlang-2III

    14Exorcist III60.2881.35322.0620.213Erlang-2II

    15Arachnophobia100.1810.87642.9110.207Erlang-2II

    16Ghost200.1161.0268.6010.114Erlang-2II

    17Bird on a Wire19*********0.000******

    18Cadillac Man12*********0.000******

    19Wild at Heart110.1741.34610.4980.129Erlang-2II

  • Our Classification Method of Diffusion PatternsYamada, Masataka, Ruji Furukawa and Mamoru Ishihara (1997)Mahajan, Vijay, Eitan Muller and Rajendra K. Srivastava (1990)

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  • Bass Continuous Time Domain Diffusion model

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  • A Typical Pattern for the Respective Class

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  • Class Map with Iso-Peak Time Curves

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  • Table 1 Classification Criteria for Diffusion Patterns

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  • 3 Adoption and Diffusion Process of New ProductAnnouncementAwarenessIntroductionKnowledgeAttitudeAction (Adoption): things that influence indivisual person's adoption decision: things that firms influence indivisual person's adoption decision or things that are givenNote that this conceptual model is made to answer the question why different diffusionpatterns from S-shaped curve to J-curve exist.

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • 3 Adoption and Diffusion Process of New ProductAnnouncementAwarenessIntroductionKnowledgeAttitudeDecision(Intention)Action (Adoption)Initial Value (Attractiveness)Perceived Characteristics ofInnovativeness: (1) RelativeAdvantage, (2) Compatibility,(3) Complexity, (4) Trialability,(5) Observability.PriceExcitement / InnovativenessCountry, Region, Organization,Firm BrandPopularity: Director, Star, Producer,Songwriter, Composer, ArtistSeries, JuniorMarketing Mix SettingInformation,InvolvementWord-of- mouthCommunicationsReview, PublicityAdvertisementTie-up withmultiple mediaPrice decreasingSample offeringMarketing Mix AdjustmentPerceivedRiskValue (Attractiveness) at the timeof its adoption decisionInitialValue ( Attractiveness) /Perceived RiskTime to act from its adoption decision1 / Value (Attractiveness) at the time ofits adoption decisionSpeed of SupplyResponse: Product,Manufacturing,Distribution,CyberspacePersonality andAttributes: Fivecategories ofRogers, LifestyleInventory of SimilarProducts, Existenceof competingproduct categoriesProduct CharacteristicsMarket Characteristics: things that influence individual person's adoption decision: things that firms influence individual person's adoption decision or things that are givenSkip

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  • Back

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  • Value (Attractiveness) at the timeof its adoption decisionInitialValue ( Attractiveness) /Perceived RiskBack

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  • Speed of SupplyResponse: Product,Manufacturing,Distribution,CyberspacePersonality andAttributes: Fivecategories ofRogers, LifestyleInventory of SimilarProducts, Existenceof competingproduct categoriesProduct CharacteristicsMarket CharacteristicsBack

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • 4. Anticipatory (Eagerly-awaited) Good/ServiceEpisode: Tickets for the national singer, Hikaru Utadas first whole country concert tour are put on sale on April 22, 2000 and all of 70,000 seats are sold out within 90minutes. Also the sales of her new single Wait and See~Risk~ have already exceeded 1.3 million CDs within first three days after its introduction. Her popularity seems to stop nowhere. (ZAX 4/23/00).

    (C) Masataka Yamada

  • 4.1

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