Kentucky Postsecondary Education and Economic Development Council on Postsecondary Education by Paul A. Coomes, Ph.D. Professor of Economics, and National

KentuckyPostsecondary Education

and Economic Development

Council on Postsecondary Educationby

Paul A. Coomes, Ph.D.

Professor of Economics, and

National City Research Fellow

University of Louisville

May 24, 2004

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Western Kentucky University

Northern Kentucky University

Murray State University

Kentucky State University

University of Kentucky

Morehead University

Eastern Kentucky University

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Regions of Economic Forecast

Topics TodayOccupational outlook system for greater

Louisville economy, linked to educational institutions

The problem: low educational attainment, low earnings per job

The true labor markets around KentuckyIssues in building a system encompassing all

of Kentucky

Sort by Rate of Growth

Sort by Net Growth

Occupational details – O*NETnurses

Occupational details nurse skill requirements

County & Industry Info

Occupation descriptiontruck drivers

Outlook – Advanced Search

Advanced Search

High School/GED Healthcare Support

High School/GED or LessHealthcare Support

High School/GED Health Practitioners and Technical

The Problem

Low levels of formal education, low wages and salaries

College Education and Earnings120 Kentucky Counties, 2000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of Adults with College Degree, 2000

Ave

rage

Ann

ual E

arni

ngs pe

r Jo

b, 2

000

United States

25.1 % college

$36,400 earnings

College Education and Earnings120 Kentucky Counties, 2000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of Adults with College Degree, 2000

Ave

rage

Ann

ual E

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b, 2

000

Fayette

Oldham

ScottHickman

EdmondsonLewis

McLean

College Attainment Rates, 1990-2000Louisville and 14 Comparison Metro Areas

15 20 25 30 35 40

Dayton

Louisville

Memphis

Greensboro

Jacksonville

Birmingham

Cincinnati

Indianapolis

Charlotte

Nashville

Omaha

Kansas City

Columbus

Richmond

Raleigh

United States

% of adults w/ College Degree

1990 Census

growth, 1990 to 2000

Louisville 14th, gained one rank in nineties

College Attainment and Earnings per JobLouisville and 14 Comparison Metro Areas, 2000

$25,000

$27,000

$29,000

$31,000

$33,000

$35,000

$37,000

$39,000

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

% of adults with college degree, 2000

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, 200

0

College Attainment and Earnings per JobLouisville and 14 Comparison Metro Areas, 2000

$25,000

$27,000

$29,000

$31,000

$33,000

$35,000

$37,000

$39,000

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

% of adults with college degree, 2000

annu

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0

Louisville

Raleigh

Charlotte

Kansas City

Richmond

Greensboro

Dayton

Columbus

Memphis

Growth in College Enrollment, 1990 to 2000Louisville and Peer Metros, residents aged 18 and older

-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

Louisville

Dayton

Kansas City

Cincinnati

Memphis

Birmingham

Columbus

Richmond

Greensboro

Indianapolis

Charlotte

Omaha

Jacksonville

Nashville

Raleigh

Source: US Census Bureau. The Louisville MSA had 54,900 students in 1990 and 50,800 in 2000.

enrollments peaked in 1991 with 53,463 enrollees, dipped to a low of 46,897 in 1996 and have been rising since.

Fall College Enrollments within the Louisville MSA 1990-2001

52,272

53,463

52,426

50,712

49,330

47,21046,897

47,178

48,313

49,760

51,207

54,541

40000

44000

48000

52000

56000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. Metro total calculated by querying database for activity at area institutions. Colleges include those offering associate degrees and higher. No data available on enrollments for academic year 1999-2000 or professional degrees 2000-2001; data displayed are estimates based on interpolation of nearest values.

Clark

Harrison

Bullitt

Jefferson

Scott

Floyd

Oldham

Hardin

Nelson

Grayson

Shelby

Marion

Henry

Meade

Breckinridge

Larue

Washington

Jefferson

Crawford

Spencer

Trimble

Carroll

Washington

.-,65.-,71

.-,64.-,265.-,64

.-,65

.-,264

Ohio River

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23-County Louisville Region; 20037-County Louisville MSA 1990-2000Interstate Hwys.Ohio River

30 0 30 60 Miles

7-county Metropolitan Statistical Area 1990-2000 and 23-county Louisville Economic Region

Degree-granting Institutions Identified

Within the Louisville MSA

• In the academic year 2000-2001, eleven schools offered associate degrees or equivalent [yellow], three offered bachelor’s degrees only [blue], and eight schools offered bachelor’s, master’s, doctoral and/or first-professional [green].

School1990 Men

1990 Women

1990 Total

2000 Men

2000 Women

2000 Total

IVY TECH STATE COLLEGE-SOUTH CENTRAL 826 893 1,719 818 1,115 1,933JEFFERSON COMMUNITY COLLEGE 3,659 6,575 10,234 3,684 5,836 9,520LOUISVILLE TECHNICAL INSTITUTE 395 105 500 412 200 612NATIONAL EDUCATION CENTER KENTUCKY COL OF TECHN 229 110 339PHILLIPS COLLEGE 45 433 478RETS ELECTRONIC INSTITUTE 275 63 338 274 91 365WATTERSON COLLEGE 40 120 160JEFFERSON TECHNICAL COLLEGE* 290 290 580 1,041 471 1,512STENO-TYPE INSTITUTE OF LOUISVILLE 4 36 40ITT TECHNICAL INSTITUTE 306 48 354KENTUCKY CAREER INSTITUTE 45 52 97SPENCERIAN COLLEGE 8 193 201SULLIVAN UNIVERSITY 481 1,232 1,713 1,056 2,156 3,212COLLEGE OF THE SCRIPTURES 5 3 8PORTLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL OF BIBLICAL STUDIES 3 1 4SIMMONS BIBLE COLLEGE 70 27 97 0 23 23BELLARMINE UNIVERSITY 1,569 2,338 3,907 999 1,849 2,848INDIANA UNIVERSITY-SOUTHEAST 2,101 3,541 5,642 2,421 4,006 6,427LOUISVILLE BIBLE COLLEGE 39 16 55 105 25 130LOUISVILLE PRESBYTERIAN THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY 91 84 175 139 111 250SOUTHERN BAPTIST THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY 1,661 584 2,245 1,748 572 2,320SPALDING UNIVERSITY 172 887 1,059 384 1,248 1,632UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE 10,747 12,232 22,979 8,916 10,855 19,771Totals 22,702 29,570 52,272 22,356 28,851 14,393

Total Fall Enrollment, 1990 Total Fall Enrollment, 2000Fall Enrollment at Post-Secondary Institutions in the Louisville MSA

30 0 30 60 Miles

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LOuisville MSA 1990-2000

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Hanover College

$TElizabethtown Community College

Saint Catherine College

$T Ivy Tech Southeast

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Louisville MSA 1990-2000

There are five colleges outside of the 7-county metro area but inside the 23-county economic region. We will track these schools as well, but they are not included in this analysis.

Total Enrollmentsin Local Degree-granting Institutions

Academic Year 2000-2001

In Fall 2000, there were 51,207 students enrolled in degree-granting institutions in the Louisville metro area. Of this total, approximately 39% were enrolled at the University of Louisville, 19% at Jefferson Community College, and 13% at Indiana University (IU) Southeast.

In total, 7 of 10 students enrolled went to these three institutions.

U of L38%

Jefferson Community

College19%

IU Southeast13%

other30%

Trends by Type of Degree

• In the Louisville MSA, the number of associate’s degrees conferred are declining, while bachelor’s and master’s degrees earned are increasing.

Degrees Awarded by Type of Degree;Trends 1991 through 200116 Comparison Metros

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees Master's Degrees Doctor's Degrees First-Professional DegreesSource: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsceondary Education Data System. Metro total calculated by querying

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. Metro total calculated by querying database

Degrees Awarded by Type of Degree;Trends 1991 through 2001

Louisville Metro Area

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees Master's Degrees Doctor's Degrees First-Professional Degrees

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsceondary Education Data System. Metro total calculated by querying database Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. Metro total calculated by querying database

Occ Code Occupation Title Job Level School 1 School 2 School 3 School 4

299099 Healthcare Practitioners and Technicians 3 156648 156471 156930 151041

319091 Dental Assistants 3 157289

319092 Medical Assistants 3 157793 151041 156930 157766

291071 Physician Assistants 4 156921 157766

291111 Registered Nurses 4 157289 156286 157757 156921

Job Level

Education/Experience

1 No previous work-related skill, knowledge, or experience necessary.

2 Some previous work-related skill, knowledge, or experience helpful or necessary.

3 Previous work-related skill, knowledge, or experience required.

4 A minimum of two to four years of skill, knowledge or educational preparation required.

5 Extensive skill, knowledge, and experience required. Often requires more than five years of experience.







School ID Institution Name & Level(s) of Degree Offered

Address Phone Website

156648 Elizabethtown Community College;

Associate’s

600 College Street Road, Elizabethtown KY. 42701

270-769-2371

www.elizabethtowncc.com/

156471 Galen Health Institute;

Non-degree Granting

612 S Fourth Street, Louisville, KY 40202

502-582-2305

www.nursingcareer.com/

156930 Jefferson Technical College;

Non-degree Granting

727 W. Chestnut Street, Louisville, KY. 40203

502-213-5333

www.jtc.kctcs.edu







School ID Institution Name & Level(s) of Degree Offered

Address Phone Website

157289 University of Louisville;

Associate’s through Doctor’s and First Professional

2301 S. Third Street, Louisville, KY 40292

502-852-5555

www.louisville.edu

156286 Bellarmine University; Bachelor’s through Master’s

2001 Newburg Road, Louisville, KY 40205

502-452-8000

www.bellarmine.edu

157757 Spalding University; Associate’s through Doctor’s

851 S. Fourth Street Street, Louisville, KY. 40203

502-585-9911

www.spalding.edu

The True Labor Markets Around Kentucky

Ashland

Paducah

Jackson

Nashville

Cincinnati

Louisville

Evansville

Clarksville

Elizabethtown

Bowling Green

Memphis

Lexington

Owensboro

HuntingtonCharleston

Hopkinsville

Economic Areas Containing Kentucky Countiesas defined by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Charleston

Lexington

Cincinnati-Hamilton

Nashville

LouisvilleEvansville-Henderson

Paducah

Memphis

Fort Knox

Fort Campbell

Bluegrass Army Depot

Issues in Developing Statewide System

1. Identifying true labor market boundaries

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Owensboro

Evansville

Clarksville

AshlandHuntington

Cincinnati

Elizabethtown

Bowling Green

LouisvilleLexington-Fayette

Paducah

MayfieldMurray

Central CityMadisonville

Glasgow

Campbellsville

Somerset

Danville

Richmond

London

Corbin

Middlesborough

Frankfort Mount Sterling

Morehead

Maysville

Covington


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Western Kentucky University

Northern Kentucky University

Murray State University

Kentucky State University

University of Kentucky

Morehead University

Eastern Kentucky University

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#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

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#YAshland

Owensboro

Evansville

Louisville

Cincinnati

Huntington

Clarksville

Bowling Green

Elizabethtown

Lexington

Illinois

OhioIndiana

Illinois

Tennessee

Virginia

West Virginia

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Kentucky CountiesMetropolitan CountiesInterstatesRiversLakes

#Y Principal Metro Cities

New Definitions – 9 Metropolitan Statistical Areas containing 36 KY counties and 2.4 million residents

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Corbin

London

Murray

Glasgow

Paducah

DanvilleRichmond

Somerset

Frankfort

Maysville

Union City


Campbellsville

Middlesborough

Mount Sterling

Mayfield

Hanover

Ironton

Portsmouth

Cumberland Gap

Madison

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$T Other Area Cities$T Principal Micro Cit ies

New Definitions – 14 Micropolitan Statistical Areas containing KY counties

New Definitions –23 Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas containing 61 KY counties and 3.1 million residents

$T$T

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#Y

#Y

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Ohio

Indiana

Illinois

Tennessee

Virginia

West Virginia

Ashland

Owensboro

Evansville

Louisville

Cincinnati

Huntington

Clarksville

Bowling Green

Elizabethtown

Lexington

Corbin

London

Murray

Glasgow

Paducah

DanvilleRichmond

Somerset

Frankfort

Maysville

Union City


Campbellsville

Middlesborough

Mount Sterling

Mayfield

HanoverIronton

Portsmouth

Cumberland Gap

Madison

100 0 100 200 Miles

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$T Other Area Cities$T Principal Micro Cit ies#Y Principal Metro Cities


2. Identifying and tracking activity at relevant postsecondary institutions in

each labor market

Answer: IPEDS


3. Policy implications?

First: fact-based policy discussionsTrack shortages, surpluses of programs in

each labor market?Consider more reciprocity/coordination across

state lines, particularly along Ohio River?Consider more coordination with private

providers and/or college vouchers?

for research reports, see

http://monitor.louisville.edu

Documents

Kentucky Postsecondary Education and Economic Development Council on Postsecondary Education by Paul A. Coomes, Ph.D. Professor of Economics, and National