Later life 2011 - National and International trends

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  • 1. Later Life 2011
    • National and International Trends
    • Prepared by Age UK Research Department
  • 2. Overview
    • Demographics and population trends
    • Health and wellbeing
    • Money matters
    • Home and care
    • Public policy challenges
    • Opportunities for enterprise
  • 3. Demographics and Population Trends
  • 4. Ageing in the UK
    • TODAY
      • 10 million aged over 65
      • 1.3 million aged over 85
      • 11,000 aged over 100
    • THE FUTURE
      • 12.5 million over-65s by 2020, 16 million by 2030
      • Fastest growth post-85
      • 250,000 aged over 100 by 2050
  • 5. UK population pyramid (mid-2009 estimate) Source: ONS 2010
  • 6. Ageing of the UK population Source: ONS 2010
  • 7.
    • At current rates, life expectancy in the UK is increasing at the rate of about two years for each decade that passes
    • Source: House of Lords Science and Technology Committee 2005
    • Ageing: Scientific Aspects
    Life Expectancy at birth (UK)
  • 8. Life expectancy at birth (UK)
    • 1980 2000 2010
      • Males 70.8 75.3 77.9
      • Females 76.9 80.1 82.0
    (Source: World Bank Development Indicators 20 Nov 09 and ONS Oct 2010 )
  • 9. Life Expectancy at Birth 1980-82 to 2006-08 (Source: ONS 2010)
  • 10. Ageing - Internationally
    • Across EU population growth over next 25 years:
      • 81% over-60s
      • 7% 18-59 year olds
    • Across the world, by 2050 people over 60 will make up
      • 1/3 of rich world
      • 1/5 of developing world
  • 11.
    • Global Population Aged 80+ years
    • 1950 14 million
    • Today 300 million
    Longevity Revolution - Global Source: WHO 2010
  • 12. The Worlds 15 Oldest Countries (%65+) Source: Haub C, 2006; World Population Data Sheet
  • 13.
    • The number of centenarians in Japan increased almost one-hundredfold from 154 in 1963 to more than 13,000 at the beginning of this century and is projected to increase to almost 1,000,000 by 2050
    • Ageing Horizons, 3,1 (2005)
    Longevity Revolution - Japan
  • 14. Italy population pyramids
  • 15. China population pyramids (millions, by age and sex) 1950 2000 Male Female Male Female Age Source: World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005). 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age 2050 Female 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male
  • 16. Life Expectancy and Development
  • 17.
  • 18. Later life in the UK- an overview
    • Over 1.3 million people are aged 85 or over. One in four children born today
    • will live to 100
    • People aged 65 now have an average life expectancy of 82-85 years, the
    • last 7-9 years with a disability
    • Nearly 2.5 million people aged 65+ in England have care needs
    • 3.7 million people aged 65+ currently live alone
    • 821,000 people aged 65+ currently have dementia. is This is projected to
    • double in less than 40 years
  • 19. Later Life internationally: an overview
    • Of the current total world population of over 6.8 billion, there are over 790 million people aged 60 and over
    • Life expectancy at birth ranges from 82.6 years in Japan to 39.6 years in Swaziland
    • 70% of the worlds older people (60+) live in less developed countries
    • 60% of people with dementia live in developing countries, and this is expected to rise to 71% by 2040
    • 70% of mortality in low income countries is due to communicable disease and 30% to chronic long term illness; this will be reversed by 2030
  • 20. Health and wellbeing
  • 21. While health is clearly an outcome in itself, it is also a key driver of outcomes in other domains, including employment and ability to contribute ELSA (Wave 2, 2006) indicates the two-way relationship between health and wealth: greater financial resources reduce the chances of poor health, and good health has a positive relationship to financial wellbeing
    • Services are hospital focused, prioritising cure rather than prevention or complex case management, commissioning is in early stages of development, question marks over value for money, realisation that some target-driven achievements occurred at the expense of quality.
    • National priorities remain but emphasis on local decision making
    • Choice as a patient right and a tool to drive up quality along with contestability between providers for contracts framed by ambition to provide care closer to home
    • In eight years time, demographic change alone would mean that there would be:
    • Nearly 2.7 million people aged 75+ with at least one limiting long term illness and over 4.3 million people aged 65+ with LLTI
    • People living an average of 7-9 years at the end of their lives with a disability
    • Nearly seven million older people who cannot walk up one flight of stairs without resting
    • One-and-a-half million older people who cannot see well enough to recognise a friend across a road
    • Over 4 million with major hearing problems
    • Up to a third of a million people aged 75+ with dual sensory loss
    • A third of a million who have difficulty bathing
    • Nearly a million with dementia
    • Between 4-7 million with urinary incontinence
    • One-and-a-half million suffering from depression
    Why is this important? Policy Trends What do older people think?
    • Mental health older peoples preference for services include peer support; a range of activities and opportunities of things to do; 24-hour help in a crisis that helps you maintain everyday life; supported housing options, technologies and skills and learning opportunities that enable independent living. More broadly older people suggest the following to improve mental health and wellbeing: improve public attitudes; provision of activities for older people; befriending schemes (esp. those aged 90+); improved access to quality public services, and improving standard of living (mostly younger respondents).
    • Community Services priority areas for action include: improving the range of support for carers; making services personalised and holistic; joining up health and social care so there is one point of call; considering the transport implications of any changes to services
    • Intermediate care help with keeping out of long term care is important e.g. mentoring and advocacy to help them through the health and social care system; more time from care assistants; more availability and affordability of high quality home and telecare; help with practical matters such as laundry, adequate refreshments and warmth.
    Prevention package Mental health new horizons Quality accounts New regulatory system Personal health budgets Dementia strategy Stroke strategy End of life care strategy Primary care strategy Transforming community services LINks and local accountability Physical activity strategy POPPS World class commissioning HEALTH
  • 22. Long Term Health Conditions: The Strategic Challenge
    • There are over 15 million people in England with long-term health needs.
    • Long term conditions are those that cannot, at present, be cured, but can be controlled by medication and other therapies.
    • The impact on the NHS and social care for supporting people