Lecture: Prospective Environmental Assessments · Lecture: Prospective Environmental Assessments. ... Coupling Scenario Analysis and MFA ... Geochemically scarce metals

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Coupling Scenario Analysis and MFA

Case Studies: Future metal demand and availability

11.04.2017Stefanie Hellweg 1

Lecture:

Prospective Environmental Assessments

||www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD 11.04.2017 2Prospective Environmental Assessment: Coupling Scenario Analysis and MFA

Learning goal

1. Getting to know examples of prospective

assessments with a combined scenario analysis and

dynamic material flow analysis

2. Understanding for the case of electricity generation,

how the methods of the lecture can be applied to

• assess whether technology growth could be

limited by future resource limitations

• assess the consequences of technology use on

future metal availability

||www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD 11.04.2017 3

Background and motivation

IEA 2013 (World Energy Outlook 2012)

Energy demand is increasing Energy provision is

associated with negative

(environmental)

consequences

GDP Total primary

energy demand

Source: Presentation Anna Stamp, 2014

Prospective Environmental Assessment: Coupling Scenario Analysis and MFA

OECD

Non-OECD



Wäger, 2011, data from Hagelueken & Meskers (2010)

% mined

1978-2008

% mined

1900-1978

Johnson et al. (2007), based on private communication

with Intel Corporation

Increasing primary production Increasing complexity





Prior et al. (2012) Wäger et al. (2011)

Rising environmental impacts

of resource provision

Green: Geochemically scarce metals

Supply constraints could impede a large scale implementation of some

technologies


Declining ore grades (example gold)



Guiding question & research gap

Potential future demand can be modeled to assess potential pressure

on supply system of a geochemically scarce metal.

This quantitative modeling has often been based on static model

parameters.

Reliable estimations on resource availability are lacking, which

impedes a sound interpretation on possible supply restrictions.

How will future electricity generation and in particular a transition

towards currently emerging and potentially more sustainable

technologies in the energy sector affect the supply and demand for

scarce metals (and how will the scarcity of metals affect technology

growth)?




Approach

Scenarios of future electricity production

Dynamic material flow model that links postulated future

implementation rates of technologies for electricity provision to

primary metal demand

Discussion of how and if the increased metal demand could be

met by the supply system – which changes are necessary and

how they could influence environmental impacts?

2 examples:

1. General study on overall worldwide electricity

generation on metal demand

2. More detailed study on copper indium gallium selenide

(CIGS) solar cells and implications on indium demand

and supply



Example 1: «Dynamic analysis of the global

metals flows and stocks in electricity

generation technologies»

A. Elshkaki & T. E. Graedel. 2013. Journal of Clearner Production 59:

260-273.



Scenarios (2050)

GEO-3 scenarios from UNEP (Global Environmental Outlook)

«Market first scenario»

• Market-driven developments

• Business as usual

• For renewables: only existing policies are taken into account

«Policy first scenario»

• Strong governmental actions to reach social and environmental goals

• Renewables: takes into account existing policies and assumes successful

implementation of targets

Source: Elshkaki & Graedel 2013



Current electricity supply and scenarios (2050)

Past and current electricity production for 57 countries (aggregated to 11

regions) and existing energy scenarios as point of departure:

GEO-3 scenarios from UNEP (Global Environmental Outlook)


«Market first scenario» «Policy first scenario»

TW

h

TW

h



Current electricity supply and scenarios (2050)



TW

h

TW

h

Worldwide electricity production: technology split



Electricity production from wind and solar

technologies



TW

h

TW

h



Assumptions for modeling electricity generation

technologies

• Wind: market share of offshore wind farms grow from currently 2% to 50%

in 2050

• PV: equal market shares of multi and singlechristalline silicon technologies

assumed; market share of thin film increases and the three technologies

have equal shares (amorphous silicon, CdTe, CIGS)

• Concentrated solar power: power tower and parabolic trough technology

• Hydropower: run-of-river and reservoir

• Geothermal: hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems

• Biomass: Cogeneration heat and electricity plant

• Nuclear: pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor

• Coal, gas, oil: «average» power plant (no distinction between

technologies)

More technological detail for renewables




Modeling metal stocks and flows (dynamic MFA)


1. Modeling annual installed electricity capacity per technology

→ The market share of each «sub-technology» was multiplied to the

cumulative installed electricity to get sub-technology specific values

→ discarded capacity modeled as delayed inflow:

2. Metal flows: estimated based on technology inflow multiplied by

metal content



Results: Metal demand


MF: market first; PF: policy first

Strong increase for all metals in policy first scenario

Compared to current production level, Nd (used in wind generators) does not

have a problem, while Te and In (mainly used in PV) need to increase

significantly production capacities to meet future demand



Results: Metal cumulative demand (until 2050)

compared to 2010 reserve estimation (policy

first scenario)


In, Te, and Ag may become resource

limted AND these three metals are

additionally used in non-energy

applications (Te in metallurgical alloys

and chemicals, In in flat panels and

alloys)

Companion metals (production can

only be increased by more efficient

recovery from host metals)

However, reserve estimations are

uncertain (and likely to increase)



Results: Stocks


For some metals (e.g. Nd) recycling will not play a major role in the near future

Other metals (e.g. Ag) may be available for other applications in the future, if

trend towards less Si-based PV continues

Geographical distribution of metal «resources» will change

Nd stock in wind turbines Indium reserves and in-use-stocks



Results: Average demand from 2010 – 2050

compared to 2010 production level for base

metals


Base metals are not an issue




Conclusions

Base metals (Al, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, Fe) are not a problem

Metal resources will be relocated geographically (from

locations with natural reserves to countries with large in-

use stocks)

No metal supply problems for wind power technology

Potential metal availability issues for (all) PV

technologies:

Silver for silicon based technologies

Tellurium for cadmium telluride technology

Indium for CIGS

Germanium for amorphous silicon




Example 2: Copper indium gallium selenide

(CIGS) solar cells

A. Stamp et al. 2014. Linking energy scenarios with metal demand

modeling – The case of indium. CIGS solar cells, Resources,

Conservation and Recycling 93: 156–167.



Approach

grey box: material flow model

circles: model input

rhombi: output variables

Source: Stamp et al. 2014



Scenarios (electricity generation solar)

No Title Short descriptionReferen

ce

sc1

Technology

Roadmap

Solar

Optimistic but plausible roadmap for PV implementation.

Identification of technology, economic and policy targets needed to realize these

future growth rates.

PV contribution on global electricity production in 2050:

11% (=4500 TWh/a)

(IEA,

2010)

sc2

energy

[r]evolution –

Reference

Scenario

Business as usual pathway, based on reference scenario in IEA (2004) with

extrapolation from 2030 to 2050.


<1% (=139 TWh/a)

(Greenpe

ace and

EREC,

2007)sc3

energy

[r]evolution –

Alternative

Scenario

Outline for an energy system with CO2 emissions reduced by 50% below 1990

levels in 2050 (limit global warming to maximum +2°C).

Key assumptions similar to sc2, but lower energy intensity per Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) (higher share of renewables, electricity demand reduced by 33%

compared to sc2 with efficiency measures).

Energy price projections, supply security, and policy recommendations included.


9% (=2800 TWh/a)




Scenarios (electricity generation solar)

No Title Short description Reference

sc4Solar Generation 6

– Reference

Business as usual pathway, based on reference

scenario in IEA (2009) extrapolated from 2030 to 2050.


1-2%a) (=562 TWh/a)

(EPIA and

Greenpeace,

2011)

sc5

Solar Generation 6

– Accelerated

Scenario

Potential of PV with faster deployment rates than in

recent years, by continuation of current support

policies.


11-14% a) (=4450 TWh/a)

sc6

Solar Generation 6

– Paradigm Shift

Scenario

“Full potential of PV”, with high level of political

commitment.


17-21% a) (=6747 TWh/a)




Energy scenarios: electricity from PV

Business as usual

scenarios

«Full potential PV»

scenario

PV-optimistic

scenarios




Scenarios for Indium use in non-energy

applications

• Estimation of growth rates (high, medium and low

scenario)

• Example: annual growth rates in coatings currently +13%;

substitutions are being explored for coatings, so «high»

growth was assumed to be equal to 4% (economic

growth) according to US Department of Energy; medium

2%, low 1%




Assumptions about market penetration and

technological progress CIGS cells

Parameter Level 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 unit

Market penetration CIGS

P1 Market share

of CIGS solar

cells on the PV

market

Optimistic 0 2 5 13 25 37 48 50 %

Reference 0 2 4.5 9 15 21 28 30 %

Pessimistic 0 2 4 6.5 10 13.5 18 20 %

Technological progress CIGS

P2 Indium

intensity CIGS

solar cells

(material

intensity)

Optimistic 25.0 24.1 22.6 19.6 15.0 10.4 5.9 5.0 t/GW

Reference 30.0 29.0 27.5 24.4 19.5 14.6 10.0 9.0 t/GW

Pessimistic 40.0 39.1 37.6 34.6 30.0 25.4 20.9 20.0 t/GW

P3 CIGS module

lifetime

Optimistic 30 years

Reference 25 years

Pessimistic 20 years




Assumptions about handling of CIGS cellsParameter Level 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 unit

Handling in anthroposphere CIGS

P4 Utilization rate

indium in CIGS

solar cell

manufacturing

(material

efficiency

Optimistic 17 21 26 37 55 73 89 93 %

Reference 17 20 24 32 45 57 69 72 %

Pessimistic 17 %

P5 CIGS solar

cell production

scrap

Optimistic 87.5 87 85 80 70 60 53 52 %

Reference 87.5 87 86 84 80 76 73 73 %

Pessimistic 87.5 %

P6 Collection rate

EoL CIGS

modules

Optimistic 85 %

Reference 40 %

Pessimistic 0 %

P7 Recovery rate

indium from EoL

CIGS modules

Optimistic 92 %

Reference 68 %

Pessimistic 0 %

P8 Recovery rate

indium from CIGS

solar cell

production scrap

Optimistic 25 28 33 44 60 76 92 95 %

Reference 25 27 31 38 50 62 73 75 %

Pessimistic 25 27 29 34 43 51 58 60 %

Prospective Environmental Assessment: Coupling Scenario Analysis and MFASource: Stamp et al. 2014


Assumptions about other indium applications

Parameter Level 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 unit

Indium tin oxides (ITO) thin film applications

P9 Flat panel

displays lifetime

High 10 %

Average 7 %

Low 5 %

P10 Utilization

rate indium in ITO

manufacturing

High 30 30 34 43 62 80 92 93 %

Average 30 30 33 39 51 63 71 72 %

Low 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 %

P11 ITO

production scrapSame as P5

P12 Collection

rate EoL flat panel

displays

High 50 %

Average 20 %

Low 15 %

P13 Recovery rate

indium from EoL

flat panel displays

High 0 1 4 16 43 69 84 85 %

Average 0 1 3 11 25 39 49 50 %

Low 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.1 4.0 5.0 %

P14 Recovery rate

indium from ITO

production scrap

High 74 74 77 80 85 89 94 95 %

Average 69 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 %

Low 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 %

Source: Stamp et al. 2014Prospective Environmental Assessment: Coupling Scenario Analysis and MFA


Results: Primary Indium demand for CIGS solar

cellsCumulative primary indium demand

from CIGS solar cells associated with

various energy scenarios

Cumulative primary indium demand for

one scenario (sc3), with varying

assumptions for parameter groups




Results: Total primary Indium demand for all

applications




Measures to adjust indium supply to increased

demand

1. Improve extraction efficiency

2. Increase production of carrier metal zinc

3. Mine indium with other carrier metals

4. Access historic resources




Equipping all

mines with

indium-capable

smelters:

Efftot > 52%

Some new

projects have

90%

Efftot > 72%

11.04.2017 32

Indium extraction efficiency from zinc ore to

high purity indium

In = indium, Zn = zinc, Zn ore conc = zinc ore concentrate, 2N = 99% purity, 5N+ = >99.999% purity..




Increase production of carrier metal zinc

Annual zinc production: 12 Mio t in 2010

On average, zinc production has increased 3.5% per year

since 1900 (linked to construction and automotive industry,

particularly for galvanization)

Sufficient for lower bound estimation of Indium demand

For upper bound estimation: annual increase of 12 – 24 %

necessary (scenario 1 and 6)




Mine indium with other carrier metals & access

historic resources

Indium also occurs in copper, lead and tin minerals

Indium Corporation identified 15,000 t of indium as

residue reserves

Usability of residue reserves depends on pollution level




Conclusions

The same amount of primary indium “invested” can sustain

considerably higher installed capacities of CIGS solar cells

Prerequisites: higher efforts in reducing indium demand in the technology

and in keeping the indium in the anthropogenic cycle

Possible changes in the supply system to react to increasing

demand: e.g. increasing the extraction efficiency of indium as a

by-product of zinc production in order to decrease dependency

on future zinc demand development.

Some optimism regarding securing the indium supply for an

increased CIGS solar cell implementation in the medium term,

although higher prices might result.

Study cannot be generalized to other metals.




Example 3: Future of Aluminum recycling

Modaresi R & Müller D, The Role of Automobiles for the Future of

Aluminum Recycling, Environmental Science and Technology 46 (16),

dx.doi.org/10.1021/es300648w, 8587–8594, 2012


https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=aluminum+car&view=detailv2&&id=7EBBF99E5BA05D3A94DA83FDA543EAE9B0E7C82B&selectedIndex=0&ccid=VH9pd7%2bJ&simid=608023209468038710&thid=OIP.M547f6977bf8940a0bdfac867f7abb533H0

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=aluminum+car&view=detailv2&&id=7EBBF99E5BA05D3A94DA83FDA543EAE9B0E7C82B&selectedIndex=0&ccid=VH9pd7%2bJ&simid=608023209468038710&thid=OIP.M547f6977bf8940a0bdfac867f7abb533H0


1-2 Folien zur Studie von Müller: dynamic. MFA

und Qualität Alu Schrott


Aluminum Recycling, Environmental Science and Technology 46 (16),

dx.doi.org/10.1021/es300648w, 8587–8594, 2012

Future of Aluminum (Al) recycling• Al recycling is currently constrained scrap availability, but the amount of

postconsumer scrap is expected to grow

• Postconsumer Al scrap is often contaminated and consists of many alloys

• Passenger cars use most of the secondary castings (produced from a

mixture of Al scrap)

Is downcycling a problem? When and under what conditions is a scrap

surplus likely to occur?

Which interventions can ensure that all recoverable scrap will find a useful

application?



Aluminum Recycling, Environmental Science and Technology 46

(16), dx.doi.org/10.1021/es300648w, 8587–8594, 2012

Future of Aluminum (Al) recycling: dynamic MFA

Method: Dynamic MFA using future scenarios to estimate trajectories of

input parameters: global population development, car ownership, car

lifetimes, car technology and material compositions, recovery rates




(16), dx.doi.org/10.1021/es300648w, 8587–8594, 2012

Future of Aluminum (Al) recycling: dynamic MFA

Results:

• Current practice of downgrading and dilution will lead to a

scrap excess already in this decade.

• By 2050, the annual scrap excess from passenger cars

may reach 0.4−2 kg per capita (10−54% of the primary

aluminum production in 2006).

• This corresponds to a loss of annual energy saving

potential of 45−240 TWh/yr and a loss in greenhouse

gas saving potential of 4−19 kg per capita and year.




(16), dx.doi.org/10.1021/es300648w, 8587–8594, 2012

Future of Aluminum (Al) recycling: interventions

Most effective counter-measures:

• Improve sorting into castings, wrought aluminum, and different alloy

families

• Design for disassembly and design for recycling: reduction of the number

of alloys (however, effect would come with delay of product lifetime)

• Effective strategies need to include an immediate and rapid penetration

||www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD 11.04.2017 41Prospective Environmental Assessment: Coupling Scenario Analysis and MFA

Learning goal

1. Getting to know examples of prospective

assessments with a combined scenario analysis and

dynamic material flow analysis

2. Understanding for the case of electricity generation,

how the methods of the lecture can be applied to

Further examples?


Further applications: Hg in India


Further applications: Hg in India

Buger et al.

2013, ES&T

Documents

Lecture: Prospective Environmental Assessments · Lecture: Prospective Environmental Assessments. ... Coupling Scenario Analysis and MFA ... Geochemically scarce metals