50
Steven E. Koonin March 2007 Energy trends and technologies for the coming decades

Lecture Slide Presentation

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

 

Citation preview

Page 1: Lecture Slide Presentation

Steven E. KooninMarch 2007

Energy trends and technologies for the coming decades

Page 2: Lecture Slide Presentation

Technology and policy

Demand Growth

• GDP & pop. growth

• urbanisation• demand mgmt.

Security of Supply

Environmental Impacts

Supply Challenges

key drivers of the energy future

Page 3: Lecture Slide Presentation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)

Prim

ary

Ener

gy p

er c

api

ta (G

J)

Source: UN and DOE EIARussia data 1992-2004 only

energy use grows with economic development

US

Australia

Russia

BrazilChina

India

S. Korea

Mexico

Ireland

Greece

France

UKJapan

Malaysia

energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004)

Page 4: Lecture Slide Presentation

demographic transformations

world population

0

2

4

6

8

10

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1998 2050

2003 2050

source: United Nations

6.3billion

8.9billion

Oceania

AfricaN-America

S-America

Europe

Asia

Oceania

AfricaN-America

S-America

Europe

Asia

Page 5: Lecture Slide Presentation

energy demand – growth projections

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

Notes: 1. OECD refers to North America, W. Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and NZ 2. Transition Economies refers to FSU and Eastern European nations 3. Developing Countries is all other nations including China, India etc.

Global Energy Demand Growth by Region (1971-2030)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1971 1990 2004 2015 2030

OECD Transition Economies Developing Countries

Ene

rgy

Dem

and

(Mto

e)

Global energy demand is projected to increase by just over one-half between now and 2030 – an average annual rate of 1.6%. Over 70% of this increased demand comes from developing countries

Page 6: Lecture Slide Presentation

annual primary energy demand 1971-2003

Source IEA, 2004 (Excludes biomass)

Page 7: Lecture Slide Presentation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1971 2002 2030

Source: IEA WEO 2004Notes: 1. Power includes heat generated at power plants 2. Other sectors includes residential, agricultural and service

Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector (1971-2030)

En

erg

y D

em

and (

bnboe)

growing energy demand is projected

Key: - industry- transport - power - other sectors

Page 8: Lecture Slide Presentation

energy efficiency and conservation

• Demand depends upon more than GDP

− Multiple factors - geography, climate, demographics, urban planning, economic mix, technology choices, policy

− For example, US per capita transport energy is > 3 times Japan

• Efficiency through technology is about paying today vs tomorrow

− Must be cost effective to be attractive

− May not reduce demand through misuse or in supply-limited situations US Autos (1990-2001)

Net Miles per Gallon: +4.6%- engine efficiency: +23.0%- weight/performance: -18.4%

Annual Miles Driven: +16%Annual Fuel Consumption: +11%

Page 9: Lecture Slide Presentation

Demand Growth

• GDP & pop. growth

• urbanisation• demand mgmt.

Security of Supply

Environmental

Constraints

Supply Challenges

• significant resources

• non-conventionals

key drivers of the energy future

Technology and policy

Page 10: Lecture Slide Presentation

US energy supply since 1850

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000

RenewablesNuclearGasOilHydroCoalWood

Source: EIA

Page 11: Lecture Slide Presentation

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

27.8%

6.0%6.3%

23.5%

36.4%Oil

Natural gas

Coal

Hydro

Nuclear

global primary energy sources

Oil

Coal

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Page 12: Lecture Slide Presentation

global energy supply & demand (total = 186 Mboe/d)

Source: World Energy Outlook 2004

Power Generation

Transportation

37Mboe/d

76Mboe/d

Buildings

56Mboe/d

Industry

45Mboe/d

14

Nuclear

14Mboe/d

5

Renewables

5Mboe/d

2

17

3

1

Biomass

23Mboe/d

33

8

2

Coal

43Mboe/d

11

1016

1

Gas

38Mboe/d

6

35

12

10

Oil

63Mboe/d

Page 13: Lecture Slide Presentation

global energy supply & demand (total = 186 Mboe/d)

Source: World Energy Outlook 2004

Power Generation

Transportation

37Mboe/d

76Mboe/d

Buildings

56Mboe/d

Industry

45Mboe/d

11

16

14

Nuclear

14Mboe/d

5

Renewables

5Mboe/d

2

17

3

1

Biomass

23Mboe/d

33

8

2

Coal

43Mboe/d

11

1016

1

Gas

38Mboe/d

6

35

12

10

Oil

63Mboe/d

Page 14: Lecture Slide Presentation

BAU projection of primary energy sources

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1980 2004 2010 2015 2030

MtoeOtherRenewables

Biomass &waste

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case)

’04 – ’30 Annual Growth

Rate (%)

Total

6.5

1.3

2.0

0.7

2.0

1.3

1.8

1.6

Note: ‘Other renewables’ include geothermal, solar, wind, tide and wave energy for electricity generation

Page 15: Lecture Slide Presentation

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Oil Gas Coal

substantial global fossil resources

R/P Ratio 41 yrs.

R/P Ratio 67 yrs.

R/P Ratio 164 yrs.

Proven Proven

ProvenYet to Find

Yet to Find

Yet to Find

Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates

Unconventional

Unconventional

Reserv

es &

Resou

rces (

bn

boe)

Page 16: Lecture Slide Presentation

oil supply and cost curve

Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price

Source: IEA (2005)

Page 17: Lecture Slide Presentation

Demand Growth

• GDP & pop. growth

• urbanisation• demand mgmt.

Security of Supply

• dislocation of resources

• import dependence

Environmental Impacts

Supply Challenges

• significant resources• non-conventionals

key drivers of the energy future

Technology and policy

Page 18: Lecture Slide Presentation

Source: BP Data

significant hydrocarbon resource potential

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

South America

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 North America

Oil Gas Coal

Oil Gas CoalReso

urc

e P

ote

nti

al (b

nb

oe)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Africa

Oil Gas Coal

Reso

urc

e P

ote

nti

al (b

nb

oe)

Reso

urc

e P

ote

nti

al (b

nb

oe)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 FSU

Oil Gas Coal

Reso

urc

e P

ote

nti

al (b

nb

oe)

Gas Europe

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Reso

urc

e P

ote

nti

al (b

nb

oe)

Oil Gas Coal

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Middle East

Oil Gas Coal

Reso

urc

e P

ote

nti

al (b

nb

oe)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Asia

Pacific

Oil Gas CoalReso

urc

e P

ote

nti

al (b

nb

oe)

Key:

- unconventional oil

- conventional oil - gas

- coal

Oil, Gas and Coal Resources by Region (bnboe)

Page 19: Lecture Slide Presentation

78%

10%

61%

15%

88%

65%

22%

90%

39%

85%

12%

35%

Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves

OIL GAS COAL

3 Largets Energy Markets(N.America + Europe + Asia Pacific)

ROW

dislocation of fossil fuel supply & demand

Source: BP Statistical Review 2006

Page 20: Lecture Slide Presentation

Demand Growth

• GDP & pop. growth

• urbanisation• demand mgmt.

Security of Supply

• dislocation of resources

• import dependence

Environmental Impacts

• local pollution• climate change

Supply Challenges

• significant resources• non-conventionals

key drivers of the energy future

Technology and policy

Page 21: Lecture Slide Presentation

climate change and CO2 emissions

- CO2 concentration is rising due to fossil fuel use

- The global temperature is increasing

- other indicators of climate change

- There is a plausible causal connection

- but ~1% effect in a complex, noisy system

- scientific case is complicated by natural variability, ill-understood forcings

- Impacts of higher CO2 are uncertain

- ~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed stabilization target (550 ppm)

- Reached by 2050 under BAU

- Precautionary action is warranted

- What could the world do?

- Will we do it?

Page 22: Lecture Slide Presentation

crucial facts about CO2 science

• The earth absorbs anthropogenic CO2 at a limited rate

− Emissions would have to drop to about half of their current value by the end of this century to stabilize atmospheric concentration at 550 ppm

− This in the face of a doubling of energy demand in the next 50 years (1.5% per year emissions growth)

• The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is ~ 1000 years

− The atmosphere will accumulate emissions during the 21st Century

− Near-term emissions growth can be offset by greater long-term reductions

− Modest emissions reductions only delay the growth of concentration (20% emissions reduction buys 15 years)

Page 23: Lecture Slide Presentation

some stabilization scenarios

Emissions Concentration

Page 24: Lecture Slide Presentation

social barriers to meaningful emissions reductions

• Climate threat is intangible and diffuse; can be obscured by natural variability

− contrast ozone, air pollution

• Energy is at the heart of economic activity

• CO2 timescales are poorly matched to the political process

− Buildup and lifetime are centennial scale

− Energy infrastructure takes decades to replace

− Power plants being planned now will be emitting in 2050

− Autos last 20 years; buildings 100 years

− Political cycle is ~6 years; news cycle ~1 day

• There will be inevitable distractions

− a few years of cooling

− economic downturns

− unforeseen expenses (e.g., Iraq, tsunamis, …)

• Emissions, economics, and the priority of the threat vary greatly around the world

Page 25: Lecture Slide Presentation

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)

CO

2 e

mis

sions

per

cap

ita

(tCO 2

)

CO2 emissions and GDP per capita (1980-2004)

US

Australia

Russia

Brazil

China

India

S. Korea

Mexico

Ireland

Greece

France

UK

JapanMalaysia

Source: UN and DOE EIARussia data 1992-2004 only

Page 26: Lecture Slide Presentation

implications of emissions heterogeneities

• 21st Century emissions from the Developing World (DW) will be more important than those from the Industrialized World (IW)

− DW emissions growing at 2.8% vs IW growing at 1.2%

− DW will surpass IW during 2015 - 2025

• Sobering facts

− When DW ~ IW, each 10% reduction in IW emissions is compensated by < 4 years of DW growth

− If China’s (or India’s) per capita emissions were those of Japan, global emissions would be 40% higher

• Reducing emissions is an enormous, complex challenge; technology development will play a central role

t

EDW

IW

Page 27: Lecture Slide Presentation

Emissions and Energy 1980-2004

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

0 100 200 300 400

Primary energy per capita (Gj)

CO

2 p

er c

apit

a (t

on

nes

)

USA

UK

France

Japan

China

Brazil

Ireland

Mexico

Malaysia

S. Korea

Greece

India

Australia

Russia

Thailand

Coal Oil

Gas

Current global average

CO2 emissions and Energy per capita (1980-2004)

Source: UN and DOE EIARussia data 1992-2004 only

Page 28: Lecture Slide Presentation

greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 by source

Source: Stern Review, from data drawn from World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) on-line database version 3.0

Page 29: Lecture Slide Presentation

historical and projected GHG emissions by sector

Source: Stern Review from WRI (2006), IEA (in press), IEA (2006), EPA (forthcoming), Houghton (2005).

Page 30: Lecture Slide Presentation

Demand Growth

• GDP & pop. growth

• urbanisation• demand mgmt.

Security of Supply

• import dependence• competition

Environmental Impacts

• local pollution• climate change

Supply Challenges

• significant resources• non-conventionals

key drivers of the energy future

Technology and policy

Page 31: Lecture Slide Presentation

some energy technologies

Primary Energy Sources:

•Light Crude•Heavy Oil•Tar Sands•Wet gas

•CBM•Tight gas•Nuclear

•Coal•Solar•Wind

•Biomass•Hydro

•Geothermal

Extraction & Conversion Technologies:

•Exploration•Deeper water

•Arctic•LNG

•Refining•Differentiated fuels

•Advantaged chemicals•Gasification

•Syngas conversion•Power generation

• Photovoltaics•Bio-enzyimatics

•H2 production & distribution•CO2 capture & storage

End Use Technologies:

•ICEs•Adv. Batteries•Hybridisation

•Fuel cells•Hydrogen storage

•Gas turbines•Building efficiency

•Urban infrastructure•Systems design• Other efficiency

technologies•Appliances

•Retail technologies

There are no “silver bullets”But some have a larger calibre than others !

Page 32: Lecture Slide Presentation

evaluating energy technology options

• Current technology status and plausible technical headroom

• Budgets for the three E’s:

− Economic (cost relative to other options)

− Energy (output how many times greater than input)

− Emissions (pollution and CO2; operations and capital)

• Materiality (at least 1TW = 5% of 2050 BAU energy demand)

• Other costs - reliability, intermittency etc.

• Social and political acceptability

we also must know what problem we are trying to solve!

Page 33: Lecture Slide Presentation

Concern relating to Threat of Climate

Change

Con

cern

over

Fu

ture

A

vailab

ilit

y o

f O

il a

nd

G

as

High

High

Low

Low

Adv. Biofuels

Carbon Free H2 for Transport

CTL

GTL

Heavy Oil

EnhancedRecovery

Ultra Deep Water

Arctic

Capture & Storage

Capture & Storage

CNG

Hybrids

C&S

Vehicle Efficiency (e.g. light weighting)

- supply side options

- demand side options

Key:Dieselisation

Conv. Biofuels

two key energy considerations – security & climate

Page 34: Lecture Slide Presentation

the fungibility of carbon

Primary Carbon Source

Syngas Step Conversion Technology

Syngas(CO + H2)

LubesNaphthaDiesel

Syngas to Liquids (GTL) Process

Others (e.g. mixed alclohols, DME)

Syngas to Chemicals Technologies

Methanol

Coal

Natural Gas

BiomassHydrogen

Extra Heavy

Oil Combined Cycle Power Generation

Syngas to Power

Page 35: Lecture Slide Presentation

what carbon “beyond petroleum”?

Fuel Fossil Agriculture Biomass

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

An

nu

al U

S C

arb

on

(M

t C

)

↑↑

15% of 15% of Transportation FuelsTransportation Fuels

1000

Page 36: Lecture Slide Presentation

what carbon “beyond petroleum”?

Fuel Fossil Agriculture Biomass

0

500

1000

1500

2000

An

nu

al W

orl

d C

arb

on

(M

t C

)

↑↑

15% of 15% of Transportation FuelsTransportation Fuels

↑↑5300 Big!

Page 37: Lecture Slide Presentation

biofuels today

• 2% of transportation pool

• (Mostly) Use with existing infrastructure & vehicles

• Growing support worldwide

• Conversion of food crops into ethanol or biodiesel

− US Corn ethanol economic for oil > $45 /bbl

− Brazilian sugarcane economic for oil > $22/bbl

Flex Fuel Offers in Brazil

Food Crops for Energy

Page 38: Lecture Slide Presentation

key questions about biofuels

• Costs

− Biofuel production costs

− Infrastructure & vehicle costs

• Materiality

− Is there sufficient land after food needs?

− Are plant yields sufficiently high?

• Environmental sustainability

− Field-to-tank CO2 emissions relative to business as usual?

− Agricultural practice – water, nitrogen, ecosystem diversity and robustness, sustainability, food impact

• Energy balance

− More energy out than in?

− Does it matter?

Page 39: Lecture Slide Presentation

corn ethanol is sub-optimal

• Production does not scale to material impact

− 20% of US corn production in 2006 (vs. 6% in 2000) was used to make ethanol displacing ~2.5% of petrol use

− 17% of US corn production was exported in 2006

• The energy and environmental benefits are limited

− To make 1 MJ of corn ethanol requires 0.9 MJ of other energy (0.4 MJ coal, 0.3 MJ gas, 0.04 MJ of nuclear/hydro, 0.05 MJ crude)

− Net CO2 emission of corn ethanol ~18% less than petrol

• Ethanol is not an optimal fuel molecule

− Energy density, water, corrosive,…

• There is tremendous scope to improve (energy, economics, emissions)

Page 40: Lecture Slide Presentation

optimizing biofuels requires fusing the petroleum and agricultural value chains

•Species•Yield / Morphology / Development•Chemistry•Unnatural products•Stress tolerance • / Bio-overhead•Safety

•Tillage•Planting•Fertilizer•Water•Pest control•Crop rotation•Sustainability

•Optimal catchment•In-field processing (e.g., pelletizing)•Transport energetics•Storage•Waste utilization

•Cellulose (bugs/ enzymes/ chems)•Microbial engineering •Plant integration / optimization•Co-products•Role of gasification

•Blends•Additives•Distribution•Engine mods

Exploration Production Transport Refining Blending

Petroleum Value Chain:

Germplasm Cultivation Harvest/Transport

Processing A real fuel

Biofuels Value Chain:

Germplasm Cultivation Harvest Process Distribution

Agricultural Value Chain:

Page 41: Lecture Slide Presentation

BP Energy Biosciences Institute to pursue these opportunities

• Dedicated research organization to explore application of biology and biotechnology to energy issues

• Sited at University of California – Berkeley and it’s partners, University of Illinois Urbana-Champagne and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

• Open “basic” and proprietary “applied” research

• Initial focus on the entire biofuels production chain

− Smaller programmes in Oil Recovery, hydrocarbon conversion, carbon sequestration

• Involvement of BP, academia, biotechnology firms, government

• $500M, 10-year commitment; operations commencing June `07

Page 42: Lecture Slide Presentation

evaluating power optionsC

on

cern

over

Fu

ture

A

vailab

ilit

y o

f O

il a

nd

G

as

High

High

Low

Low

Hydro

Nuclear

Solar

Wind

Biomass

power sector

Coal

Gas CCGT

Geothermal

Hydrogen Power

Unconventional Gas

- power generation options- supply option

Key:

Concern relating to Threat of Climate

Change

Page 43: Lecture Slide Presentation

Source: IEA WEO 2006

Gas19.60%

Oil6.67%

Hydro16.14%

Biomass1.30%

Other2.13%

Coal39.73%

Nuclear15.74%

Geothermal0.32%

Wind0.47%

Solar0.02%Tidal/Wave

0.01%

electricity generation shares by fuel - 2004

Page 44: Lecture Slide Presentation

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225CCG

T, g

as$4

/mm

btu

Coal

$40

/tonne

Hyd

rogen

Pow

erG

as, $

4/m

mbtu

Hyd

rogen

Pow

erCoal

$40

/tonne

Nucl

ear

Onsh

ore

Win

d

Offsh

ore

Win

d

Bio

mas

sG

asifi

cation

Wav

e / Tid

al

Sola

r (R

etai

l Cost

)

levelised costs of electricity generation

Low/Zero carbon energy source Renewable energy sourceFossil energy source

Source: BP Estimates, Navigant Consulting

Cost

of

Ele

ctr

icit

y

Gen

era

tion

9%

IR

R

($/M

Wh

)

Page 45: Lecture Slide Presentation

impact of CO2 cost on levelised Cost of Electricity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

CO2 Cost ($/tonne)Source: IEA Technology Perspectives 2006, IEA WEO 2006 and BAH analysis

Notes: 1) Add solar 2) $40/tonne CO2 cost or tax is $0.35/gallon of gasoline or $0.09 (or 5p)/litre

Cos

t of E

lect

ricity

($/M

W-h

r)

Conventional Coal

Natural Gas ($5/MMBTU)

CCS

Nuclear

Onshore Wind

Area where options multiply

$0.35/gal or 5 p/l

Solar PV

~$250

Page 46: Lecture Slide Presentation

potential of demand side reduction

Low Energy Buildings

• Buildings represent 40-50% of final energy consumption

• Technology exists to reduce energy demand by at least 50%

• Challenges are consumer behaviour, policy and business models

Urban Energy Systems

• 75% of the world’s population will be urbanised by 2030

• Are there opportunities to integrate and optimise energy use on a city wide basis?

Page 47: Lecture Slide Presentation

likely 30-year energy future

• Hydrocarbons will continue to dominate transportation (high energy density)

− Conventional crude / heavy oils / biofuels / CTL and GTL ensure continuity of supply at reasonable cost

− Vehicle efficiency can be at least doubled (hybrids, plug-in hybrids, HCCI, diesel)

− local pollution controllable at cost; CO2 emissions now ~20% of the total

− Hydrogen in vehicles is a long way off, if it’s there at all

− No production method simultaneously satisfies economy, security, emissions

− Technical and economic barriers to distribution / on-board storage / fuel cells

− Benefits are largely realizable by plausible evolution of existing technologies

• Coal (security) and gas (cleanliness) will continue to dominate heat and power

− Capture and storage (H2 power) practiced if CO2 concern is to be addressed

− Nuclear (energy security, CO2) will be a fixed, if not growing, fraction of the mix

− Renewables will find some application but will remain a small fraction of the total

− Advanced solar a wildcard

• Demand reduction will happen where economically effective or via policy

• CO2 emissions (and concentrations) continue to rise absent dramatic global action

Page 48: Lecture Slide Presentation

necessary steps around the technology

• Technically informed, coherent, stable government policies

− Educated decision-makers and public

− For short/mid-term technologies

− Avoid picking winners/losers (emissions trading)

− Level playing field for all applicable technologies

− For longer-term technologies

− Support for pre-competitive research

− Hydrates, fusion, advanced [fission, PV, biofuels, …]

• Business needs reasonable expectation of “price of carbon”

• Universities/labs must recognize and act on importance of energy research

− Technology and policy

Page 49: Lecture Slide Presentation

Questions/Comments/Discussion

Page 50: Lecture Slide Presentation