LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

MEXICOPART 2: SEVERE WINDSTORMS

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

MEXICO

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN MEXICODISASTERS IN MEXICO

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN MEXICODISASTERS IN MEXICO

FLOODS

SEVERE WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST BY BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST BY BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s atmospheric-hydrospheric-lithospheric interactions create SEVERE WINDSTORMS

SEVERE WINDSTORMS AFFECT BOTH COASTS OF

MEXICO ANNUALLY

TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES BEFORE, DURING, AND

AFTER LANDFALL ON BOTH THE GULF AND THE PACIFIC COASTS

OFTEN CAUSE DISASTERS

HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A SEVERE WINDSTORM

Entire communities;

People, property, infrastructure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

HURRICANE DEAN: A CATEGORY 2 STORM ON AUGUST 16, 2007

DEAN HEADED TOWARD MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO

• Hurricane Dean Intensified as it passed through the warmer Caribbean waters, making a projected landfall in Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula as a category 5 storm, a rare level, a very dangerous possibility.

CUBA PREPARED FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL ON AUGUST 19

• After earlier warnings by the US National Hurricane Center issued warnings for Cuba and other Caribbean island nations, the Cuban Government began evacuating 50,000 residents from three central and eastern provinces to shelters.

PREPARATION BY NASA FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL

• Fearing that Hurricane Dean might threaten the Houston home of Mission Control, NASA ordered space shuttle Endeavor that was docked at the International Space Station to return.

• Endeavor undocked on Sunday in order to arrive on Tuesday, August 21, before the projected arrival of Hurricane Dean.

PREPARATION IN TEXAS FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL

• Remembering the lessons learned in 2005 from the evacuation-traffic-jams before the arrival of Hurricane Rita, Texas Governor Rick Perry began full-scale preparations for Hurricane Dean days ahead.

• Fuel trucks were dispatched to coastal communities to facilitate evacuations, and other resources were positioned along evacuation routes.

TEXAS’ HURRICANE DEAN OPERATIONS CENTER

SOUTH TEXAS: PREPARING FOR EVACUATION, AUGUST 19

PREPARATION BY PRESIDENT BUSH FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL

• President Bush took a unique, pre-emptive strategic step of preparedness for Hurricane Dean on Saturday, August 18th by signing a pre-landfall disaster declaration, allowing the Federal Government to move in people, equipment, and supplies immediately if Hurricane Dean struck the south Texas-Mexico border, as was expected.

COORDINATED PLANNING BY USA, MEXICO, AND CANADA

• President Bush met with the leaders of Mexico and Canada on Monday, August 20th to facilitate coordinated planning of mutual assistance before the arrival of Hurricane Dean.

STOCKING UP IN CANCUN, MEXICO: AUGUST 19

REMEMBERING WILMA, TOURISTS LEAVE CANCUN: AUGUST 19

50,000 TOURISTS LEFT MEXICO BY AUGUST 20

CHETUMAL: TAKING SHELTER IN A SCHOOL; AUGUST 20

PEMEX OIL AND GAS PLATFORM IN GULF OF MEXICO

ADVANCE PREPARTIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

• The Gulf has 4,000 multi-million dollar oil and gas platforms and facilities that were at risk from hurricane Dean’s strong winds and the accompanying high waves that flooded oil refineries, toppled oil rigs, and cut pipelines in 2004 and 2005.

ADVANCE PREPARTIONS OF FACILITIES AT RISK IN THE GULF

• Pemex, Mexico’s oil company, began evacuating 13,500 workers from its oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, August 20.

• Petroleos Mexicanos evacuated all 18,000 offshore workers and shut down production rigs on the Bay of Campeche, resulting in a huge loss of revenue from 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day.

HURRICANE DEAN MADE LANDFALL AS CATEGORY 5 STORM: AUG 21

HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL: AUGUST 21

• Hurricane Dean made landfall at Majahual, Mexico as a category 5 storm with winds of 275 kn/hr (165 mi/hr).

HURRICANE DEAN’S LANDFALL: AUGUST 21

• Hurricane Dean’s landfall at Majahual, a port popular with cruise liners, was “good luck” for the people of Mexico.

• This location, a sparsely populated coastline, had already been evacuated.

• None of the major resorts took a direct hit.

MAJAHUAL LANDFALL: 270 KM/HR (165 MI/HR) WINDS; AUGUST 21

IMPACTS IN MAJAHUAL

• Hundreds of homes collapsed in Mexico’s second busiest cruise ship destination.

• Steel girders collapsed and wooden structures splintered from the force of the wind.

• About one-half the concrete dock washed away in the storm surge.

CHETUMAL: 165 MI/HR WINDS; AUGUST 21

CHETUMAL: FLOODING ON AUGUST 21

BACALAR: FLOODING; AUGUST 21

RESORT AREAS WERE SPARED A DIRECT HIT:

CANCUN: NO DAMAGE EXCEPT LOSS OF BEACH SAND; AUG 21

A THREAT TO THE MAYANS: AUGUST 21

• Hurricane Dean threatened the Yucatan’s mist vulnerable people — the Mayans--- who have not benefited from tourism or oil production, and who live simple lives, in wooden slat houses susceptible to wind damage and in low-lying areas prone to flooding.

LIMONES, A MAYAN COMMUNITY, WAS HIT HARD: AUGUST 22-23

MAYAN COMMUNITIES SEVERELY IMPACTED

• Mexico’s Mayan communities have survived many damaging storms and centuries of oppression, but surviving Hurricane Dean was one of their greatest challenges ever, because- - -

• The greatest impacts were NOT the thousands of destroyed Mayan homes, but the downed fruit-bearing trees and the destroyed corn crops they needed for daily existence.

HURRICANE DEAN’S SECOND LANDFALL: TECOLUTLA, MEXICO

THE SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO: AUGUST 22

• Hurricane Dean crossed the Bay of Campeche and made a second landfall as a category 2 storm on Wednesday, August 22.

• Landfall was at Tecolutla, a fishing town in the state of Veracruz on the Central Mexican coast, about 660 km (400 mi) from the border with Texas.

TECOLUTLA RESIDENTS EVACUATED BEFORE LANDFALL

STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL: AUGUST 22

• Hurricane Dean’s storm surge flooded Ciuidad del Carmen, a town of 120,000, with waist deep sea water.

• Heavy rainfall accompanying Dean, now a category 1 storm, caused rivers to rise rapidly in a region that had experienced flooding and landslides in 1999.

PRESIDENT FELIPE CALDERON VISITS CHETUMAL: AUGUST 22

DEAN BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON AUG 23

THE END OF HURRICANE DEAN

• As Hurricane Dean diminished to a tropical storm, its impacts in Mexico and South Texas were mainly flooding and landslides associated with and exacerbated by the runoff from the heavy rainfall accompanying the storm.

INSURED LOSSES FOR DEAN

• Caribbean island nations (Martinique, St Lucia, Dominica, Haiti, Barbados, Dominican Republic, especially Jamaica, and Cuba) were hit hard, with insured losses estimated at $ 1.5 to $ 3 billion.

• Insured losses in Mexico were estimated at $300 million.

THE FUTURE AFTER DEAN

• Mexico began its reconstruction and recovery program, with the future of the Mayan community a major unrsolved concern.

• Caribbean island nations began recovery and reconstruction programs

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: WORKING ON ERIN,THE NEXT STORM

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM INTERACT WITH MEXICO’S

COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM INTERACT WITH MEXICO’S

COMMUNITIES

HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)]

• DEBRIS

• STORM SURGE/FLOODS

• HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS

• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)

• COSTAL EROSION

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE

HURRICANESHURRICANES

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS

STORM SURGE

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

SITING PROBLEMS

FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A SEVERE WINDSTORM

DISASTER ISSEVERE WINDSTORM

DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A SEVERE WINDSTORM

DISASTER ISSEVERE WINDSTORM

DISASTER RESILIENCE

MEXICO’SMEXICO’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

MEXICO’SMEXICO’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•WINDSTORM HAZARDS•PEOPLE & BLDGS. •VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

SEVERE SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK WINDSTORM RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: SEVERE WIND-GOAL: SEVERE WIND-STORM DISASTER STORM DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., SEVERE WINDSTORMS,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST for long periods.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS.

• DISASTER-INTELLIGENT COMMUNITIES USE TIMELY CRITICAL INFORMATION TO RESPOND EFFICIENTLY.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION USUALLY TAKE LONGER THAN THOUGHT.