Terrorismo

Mantova, 10 dicembre 2018

“…la guerra cerca di conquistareterritori e di occupare città;

il terrorismo cerca di fare del malea un po’ di gente e di spaventarnemolta, facendosene un dovere”

(NYTimes, 6 gen. 2000)

“Mettere l’orrore nella mente di chi ascolta, e non necessariamente sullo schermo”

MainMain RegionalRegional CrisisCrisis

ArcArc ofof CrisisCrisis

Conflicts

Ø Modalità d’azione antica di violenza politica (es., Zeloti di Giudea 6-73 d.C.; Britannici 66 – 72 d.C.; Assassini 1090-1275) che mira a ottenere un risultato con meccanismi psicologici: la paura.

Ø Tipo di violenza utilizzato in tempo di pace, di crisi e di conflitto per sovvertire un ordine statuale.

Ø Il terrorismo può essere nucleare, biologico, chimico, tradizionale e anche cyber.

Ø Non esiste una definizione unica a livello internazionale (ogni Stato, organizzazione ha la propria).

Ø L’ONU non ha mai coniato una definizione, anche per una certa comprensione di tali metodi di violenza in tanti ambienti (movimenti indipendentisti/guerre di liberazione, OLP, ecc.).

Ø Fattori scatenanti: sentimento d’ingiustizia, desiderio di crescita socio-economica e riferimenti alla religione.

Ø Sfrutta differenze culturali (modo di comportarsi, tradizioni, valori religiosi, ecc.) per creare fratture nella società e nella popolazione.

Ø Non tutti coloro che ricorrono a tattiche terroristiche sono gruppi terroristici.

Ø Termine che attribuisce maggiore enfasi negativa all’avversario piuttosto che all’insorto.

Il Il TerrorismoTerrorismo

Overall political violence risk levels worldwide increased for the third year in a row, with 17 countries receiving increased risk ratings and only six receiving reduced risk ratings

40% of countries are assessed as being exposed to terrorism and sabotage risks

60% of countries are exposed to strikes, riots and civil commotion risks (SRCCMD)

1/3 of countries are exposed to civil war, interstate war, or coup risks

The threat posed by Islamic State (IS) has stopped spreading, but has not yet receded

IS and its followers mounted attacks in 29 countries in 2017, the same as in 2016

In Western countries, Islamic State claimed fewer attacks in 2017 (14) compared to 2016 (19), and the number of IS-inspired attacks only rose by one (from 14 to 15)

In terms of the total number of terrorist attacks, the Middle East and South Asia were the two regions most affected by terrorism in 2017. Latin America and Eurasia were the least affected

The five countries with the highest number of terrorist attacks in 2017 were Iraq, India, Somalia, Pakistan, and Nigeria, in descending order

8% of all terrorist incidents in 2017 targeted businesses. Roughly 75% of these targeted oil and gas, mining, transport, construction, and critical infrastructure. The rest were directed at retail, media, finance and tourism

2018 2018 General General OverwiewOverwiew

1st -14th Century ADThe Zealots of Judea (6-73). Known to the Romans as sicarii, or dagger-men , they carried on an underground campaign of assassination of Roman occupation forces, as well as any Jews they felt had collaborated with the Romans.

The Assassins (1090-1275). A breakaway faction of Shia Islam called the Nizari Ismalis (islamicsect) adopted the tactic of assassination of enemy leaders because the cult's limited manpower prevented open combat. Their leader, Hassam-I Sabbah, based the cult in the mountains of Northern Iran. Their tactic of sending a lone assassin to successfully kill a key enemy leader at the certain sacrifice of his own life (the killers waited next to their victims to be killed or captured) inspired fearful awe in their enemies.

14th -18th CenturyUntil the rise of the modern nation state after the Treaty of Westphalia (1648), the sort of central authority and cohesive society that terrorism attempts to influence barely existed. Communications were inadequate and controlled, and the causes that might inspire terrorism (religious schism, insurrection, ethnic strife) led to open warfare. By the time kingdoms and principalities became nations, they had sufficient means to enforce their authority and suppress activities such as terrorism.

18th CenturyThe French Revolution provided the first uses of the words "Terrorist" and "Terrorism". Use of the word "terrorism" began in 1795 in reference to the Reign of Terror initiated by the Revolutionary government. The agents of the Committee of Public Safety and the National Convention that enforced the policies of "The Terror" were referred to as 'Terrorists".

The History of Terrorism 1/3The History of Terrorism 1/3

The History of Terrorism The History of Terrorism 22//33

19th CenturyAnarchists. Radical political theories spurred the formation of small groups of revolutionaries who attacked nation-states produced some striking successes, assassinating heads of state from Russia, France, Spain, Italy, and the United States.

Nationalists. Peoples conquered or colonized adopted terrorist actions as method of struggle(Irish; Carbonari, Russian Peoples Will).

Early 20th CenturySeveral nationalist groups chose terror as a method to conduct their struggle as part of their ongoing action for independence (IRA; Macedonians; Yugoslav).

In WWII partisan and resistance organizations used terrorist tactics as the means of struggle.

20th Century (Cold War)

After WWII, the struggle against foreign occupation and for independence from colonial rule occurred throughout the world, and many employed terrorism as a supporting tactic. Terrorism was used within the framework of larger movements, and coordinated with political, social, and military action.

The USSR supported revolutionary struggles everywhere, and to export revolution to non-communist countries, providing extremists willing to employ violence and terror as the means to realize their ambitions.

The History of Terrorism 3/3The History of Terrorism 3/3

20th Century (second half)

Palestinian groups (OLP; PFLP; Black September) struggling against Israel.Western European marxist groups (BR; Prima Linea; ON; NAR; RAF)Nationalist & separatist organizations (ETA, IRA; terroristi Alto Adige)Regional revolutionary movements (JRA; FARC, etc.).

Aspect of this internationalization is the cooperation between extremist organizations in conducting terrorist operations. Cooperative training between Palestinian groups and European radicals started as early as 1970, and joint operations between the PFLP and the Japanese Red Army (JRA) began in 1974. Since then international terrorist cooperation in training, operations, and support has continued to grow, and continues to this day. Motives range from the ideological, such as the 1980s alliance of the Western European Marxist-oriented groups, to financial, as when the IRA exported its expertise in bomb making as far afield as Colombia.

21th Century Transnational islamic terrorism & criminal organizations.

Information on over 170,000 terrorist attacksMore than 83,000 bombings, 18,000 assassinations, and 11,000 kidnappings since 1970

Characteristics New type. Different from the «traditional one». Asymmetric in the ways, not in the means.Unpredictable. Based upon an international network able to use WMD and exploit theweakness of the so-called failed states

Strategy • Campaigning to proliferate hate and despair and to strike fear in adversaries• Terrorizing through physical and psychological acts IOT destabilize areas with different social

systems• Targets are not only places universally recognized and known, as cultural icons and symbols

to destroy the identities, heritages, and belief systems that oppose their ideologies, but,above all, the centers of aggregation, tied to day-to-day life (people going to work, etc.)

Tactics • Combination of various tactics to reach their objectives• Threat could be coming from any direction and from anybody

Modalities • Complex actions (large scale) coordinated/supported from “outside” • Small actions (individual/autonomous) perpetrated with everyday objects (knives, trucks,

cars and homemade bombs)

Modus Operandi • Careful observers• Take advantage of local style of life• Aware of other’s psychological weakness • Pursue an additional social and economic end-state• Use of sophisticated comms means (social media, encrypted messaging apps, etc.)

Terrorism After 2001Terrorism After 2001

13

Evolution of Evolution of Contemporary Terrorism Contemporary Terrorism 11//22CHARACTERISTICS INTERNAL (EUROPEAN) INTERNATIONAL TRANSNATIONAL (AFTER 9/11)

AREA OF OPERATIONS

National and/or regional(Red Brigades, IRA, ETA, etc.)

World-wide (PLO, Black Sept/Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.)

World-wide (5 continents)(Al Qaeda, ISIS, etc.)

MOTIVATIONS Ideology/political Religion/ethnic Religious

OBJECTIVE• Autonomous and

independent• Subvert democratic states

Liberation of Palestine through armed struggle

Global jihad against Islamicapostates regimes or "notbelievers" to create a world-wide caliphate

ORGANIZATION National Regional based on common religious/ethnic/ideology

Transnational, with a world-wide network of autonomous groups

TACTICS, TECHNICS AND PROCEDURES

(TTP)

Criminal acts (homicides, kidnappings, etc.)

• Guerrilla strikes, • Plane hijackings• Criminal acts (homicides,

kidnappings, etc.)

• Complex attacks• Asymmetric actions• Indiscriminate actions of

opportunity (low tech-high value)

Evolution of Evolution of Contemporary Terrorism Contemporary Terrorism 2/22/2CHARACTERISTICS INTERNAL (EUROPEAN) INTERNATIONAL TRANSNATIONAL (AFTER 9/11)

EFFECT PURSUED High visibility – few victims (specific targets)

• High visibility• No matter of number of

victims

High visibility – lots of victims(psychological effect: continue terror and insecurity)

MODUS VIVENDI Isolation from society • Exploiting international support

• Cooperation with elements of internal terrorist groups

Hiding in chosen society (sleeping cell)

STRUCTURE Supported, directed and often exploited by foreigncountries

• Supported (covert) by countries opposed to Israel & allied and other terrorist groups with same ideology

• Autonomous command and control chain

• Autonomous command and control chain

• Own economic resources

The ThreatsThe Threats

Terrorist groups operate on different levels, within or outside state-armed conflicts and include youth and street gangs, criminal groups and organized crime as well as highly professionalized terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda, Daesh, or Al Shabaab or militia providing community security.

Terrorist Groups(Stanford University)

Le Le Icone della Lotta Armata JihadistaIcone della Lotta Armata Jihadista

Abd Allah al-Azzam(Al Qaeda)

Osma Bin Laden(Al Qaeda)

Mohammed Omar(Taleban)

Anwar Al- Awlaki(Al Qaeda)

Mustafa Setmariam Nasar- Abu Musab al-Suri(Al Qaeda)

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi(Al Qeda)

Abu Ayyub al-Masri(ISIS)

Abu Muhammad al-'Adnani(ISIS) Abu Waheeb

(ISIS)Abu Omar al-Shishani

(ISIS)

Le Le Icone Viventi della Icone Viventi della Jihad GlobaleJihad Globale

Abu Bakr al Baghdadi - ISIS Ayman al Zawahiri - Al Qaeda

The The CompetitionCompetition WithinWithin JihadismJihadism(ISIS & AQ (ISIS & AQ OperatingOperating AreasAreas))

Data: US Office of Director of National Intelligence

AQ vs ISISAQ vs ISIS

AL – QAEDA ISIS

MAIN ENEMIES United States (and their Allied) Arab apostate state regims (and theirAllied)

STRATEGIES Spectacular action to force U.S. to retreat from the muslim world

Control territory to build an islamicstate

TACTICS Long-scale attacks against strategicor simbolic targets

Conventional and unconventionalstruggle

SOCIAL ISSUES Sending written statment and videos

Use of new comms means (social media, apps, dark web, etc.)

The The DifferencesDifferences BetweenBetween ISIS & AQISIS & AQ

Data: US Office of Director of National Intelligence

EstimatedEstimated NumberNumber ofof AQ AQ fightersfighters Data: US Office of Director of National Intelligence

The The IslamicIslamic StateState

ØThe Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), Islamic State (IS) and by its Arabic languageacronym Daesh, is a Salafi jihadist terrorist organization that follows a fundamentalist, Salafi doctrine of Sunni Islam.

Ø ISIL gained global prominence in early 2014 when it drove Iraqi government forces out of key cities in its Western Iraq offensive, followed by its capture of Mosul.

Ø ISIL originated as Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999, which pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda and participated in the Iraqi insurgency following the 2003 invasion of Iraq by Western forces at the behest of the United States.

ØThe group proclaimed itself a worldwide caliphate and began referring to itself as the Islamic StateJune 2014. As a caliphate, it claims religious, political and military authority over all Muslimsworldwide.

Ø From 1885 the Mahdist regime maintained sovereignty and control over the Sudanese territories until its existencewas terminated by the Anglo-Egyptian forces in 1898, when the British reconquered the Sudan (battle ofOmdurman).

Ø Mohammed Ahmed al-Mahdi enlisted the people of Sudan in what he declared a jihad against the administrationbased in Khartoum, which was dominated by Egyptians and Turks.

Ø The Mahdi's power increased and his call spread throughout the Sudan, with his movement becoming known asthe Ansar.

Ø His successor Abdallahi ibn Muhammad consolidated the new state, with administrative and judiciary systemsbased in Islamic law.

Ø Sudan's economy was destroyed during Mahdist rule and famine, war and disease reduced the population by half.

The MahdiThe MahdiØ The Mahdist Sudan or Sudanese Mahdiyya was a religious and political movement,

launched in 1881 by Muammad Ahmad bin Abdullah (later Muhammad al-Mahdi)against the Khedivate of Egypt which had ruled the Sudan since 1821. After four yearsof struggle, the Mahdist overthrew the Ottoman-Egyptian administration andestablished their own "Islamic and national" government with its capital inOmdurman.

Ø ISIS originated as Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999, which pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda and participated in the Iraqi insurgency following the 2003 invasion by the United States and Western forces.

ØThe group proclaimed itself a worldwide caliphate and began referring to itself as the Islamic State June 2014 when it drove Iraqi forces out of key cities in its Western Iraq offensive, followed by the capture of Mosul.

ØAs a caliphate, it claimed religious, political and military authority over all Muslims worldwide.

Ø ISIS has 2 dimensions: a local one (military), and an international one (terrorism).

ØThree strategic threats: • capacity to fight a land war in Syria & Iraq.• capacity to attract ordinary people from all around the world, often radicalizing them through the

internet – including foreign fighters and “homegrown” terrorists.• capacity to build-up alliances with pre-existing Islamist factions beyond the Middle East.

DimensionDimension of ISISof ISIS

Ø Blended Tactics: combining conventional military capabilities with guerrilla tactics, asymmetric attacks, combined with terrorism and criminal activities, and highly mobile standoff engagement systems (hybrid threats).

Ø Simultaneity: employ different modes of conflict simultaneously in a coherent way.

Ø Fusion: comprised of a mix of professional soldiers, terrorists, guerrilla fighters, and criminal thugs. The main fighting formations consist of regular forces (jund), élite paramilitary troops (inghimasiyun) and death squads (dhabbihah).

Ø Flexible and adaptable structure: organizing paramilitary forces both in conventional & irregular formations.

The ISIS The ISIS Characteristics Characteristics 11//2 2

ØTerrorism: campaigning to proliferate hate and despair and to strike fear in adversaries.Target are cultural icons and symbols to destroy the identities, heritages, and beliefsystems that oppose their ideologies.

ØPropaganda & information warfare: exploiting global communications networks to spread jihadist schemes, raise funds, and recruit.

ØCriminal activities: use crime and fundraising as reliable sources of revenue to fight, train, recruit, govern, and sustain operations (in some cases, as a deliberate mode ofconflict).

ØDisregard for International Law: viewing (cynically) international laws as a constraintupon their adversaries that can be exploited.

The ISIS The ISIS Characteristics Characteristics 22//22

The terrorist groups, like Hezbollah, al Shabab, and other like-minded contemporaries, exhibits the above characteristics, combined with technological sophistication and a facility for autonomous sustained operations.

Global Terrorism Index 2015: 42 different militant groups have pledged support to ISIS

The The SouthernSouthern BeltBelt ofof InstabilityInstability

The The ArabArab SpringsSprings

Ø In less than seven years it has occurred an arc of instability passing for theMiddle East, Afghanistan-Pakistan and the Indian Ocean runs over the wholenorthern portion of the African continent up to the Gulf of Guinea (MENA-P).

Ø The MENA region is the riskiest region in the world, reflecting the ongoingconflicts and terrorism actions.

• 67 International organizations & groups are proscribed as terrorist elements, in addition other terrorist groups proscribed by specific regions; ISIS is most common threat and Boko Haram is the largest threat as a cause of deaths.

• 31 Terrorist groups are located in the Middle East.• 17 of these Terrorist groups are proscribed after 2014.• Several terrorist groups pledged allegiance to ISIS declaring their areas Islamic

states.

Turkey

Houthis - Proscribed by UAE November 2015

1.Islamic State of Iraq & the Levant (ISIL) - Syria2.Kateeba al-Kawthar (KaK)3.Jund al-Aqsa (JAA) a splinter group of Al Nusrah Front4.Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC)5.Abdallah Azzam Brigades, including the Ziyad al-Jarrah Battalions (AAB)`6.Hezbollah

1.Jund al Khalifa-Algeria (JaK-A) - Algeria

2.Al Murabitun – Algeria & Mali 1.Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM)

2.Ajnad Misr (Soldiers of Egypt)3.Muslim Brotherhood -

Proscribed by UAE 2015

Islamic State of Iraq & the Levant (ISIL)

1.Ansar al-Sharia-Tunisia (AAS-T)2.Oqba Battalion

Al Shabaab

The Peoples’ Liberation Party/Front of Turkey

Ansarul MusliminaFi Biladis Sudan`

1.Ansar al-Sharia-Benghazi (AAS-B)

2.Islam Shoura Counsel

New Terrorist Group in the MENA Region after New Terrorist Group in the MENA Region after 20112011

Source GTI 2015

Ø Jihadist organization based in NE Nigeria, also active in Chad, Niger and N Cameroon.

Ø Founded by Mohammed Yusuf in 2002, the group has been led by Abubakar Shekau since 2009.

ØWhen Boko Haram first formed, the actions was nonviolent (main goal was to “purify Islam in N Nigeria).

Ø Boko Haram's increasing radicalisation led to a brutal insurgency in July 2009.

Ø Since the insurgency started in 2009 Boko Haramhas killed tens of thousands and displaced over 2.3 million from their homes and was ranked as the world's deadliest terror group.

Ø From March 2015 the group was aligned with the ISIS.

TheThe Islamic State’s West Africa Province (Islamic State’s West Africa Province (BokoBoko HaramHaram until until 20152015) )

Nigeria Ethnic Religious ComplexityNigeria Ethnic Religious Complexity

ØNearly one third of the world Muslim population lives in Africa, mainly in North Africa, the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.ØMuslim population is nearly 45%

of total African population and 30% of SSA population(Christians are 55%-60%).

ReligiousReligious factorsfactors

Al Al ShababShabab –– Origini del MovimentoOrigini del MovimentoØ Islam politico presente in Somalia già dagli anni 60, minoranza Salafita si oppone a maggioranza Sufi

Ø Inizialmente repressa dal regime di Siad Barre, riemerge negli anni 90 trovando l’opposizione deiwarlord ma l’appoggio della società civile in cerca di sicurezza

Ø Sviluppo di diversi movimenti armati, Al Itihadal Islamia, Al Qaeda East Africa, Islamic Court Union

Ø Hizb Al Shabab (partito della gioventù) emerge tra il 2003 e il 2006 come l’ala più radicale delle CortiIslamiche, affiliata ad Al Qaeda, e con l’obiettivo di istituire in Somalia uno stato islamico fondatosulla Sharia

Ø 2003-2006, formazione dalle milizie armate delle Corti Islamiche

Ø 2007-2008, resistenza all’invasione etiope, infiltrazione a Mogadiscio, acquisizione autonomia daglialtri movimenti

Ø 2009-2010, creazione della struttura organizzativa, espansione nel sud del Paese, incremento delfondi e del network internazionale, successo con il ritiro delle forze etiopi

Ø 2011-2013, incapacità di governare, paura e repressione della popolazione, rivalità interne, sconfittesul terreno inflitte da AMISOM

Al Al ShababShabab 2014 2014 -- 20182018Ø subisce numerose sconfitte da AMISOM che acquisisce terreno, diversi leader sono vittime di attacchi

aereiØ In contrasto con ISIS che dal 2015 prova a inserirsi nel PaeseØ Continue rivalità interne e l’uscita di importanti rappresentanti (ad es. Robow, attuale candidato alle

elezioni del South West State)Ø Si riorganizza nei safe heaven del sud del Paese (Jubbaland, Lower Shabelle) e all’estero (Kenya,

Etiopia)Ø Non ha reali possibilità di successo ma costituisce il maggior fattore di destabilizzazione nel PaeseØ si finanzia con tasse ed estorsioni e sfrutta le relazioni claniche per acquisire informazioni e

mantenere libertà di movimentoØ ricerca obiettivi per massimizzare i risultati in scarsità di risorse, normalmente contro strutture del

Governo Federale, della società civile, militari delle Forze di Sicurezza Somale/AMISOM, lavoratori diditte straniere

Ø utilizza prevalentemente omicidi mirati, attacchi con Improvised Explosive Device, attacchi complessi,fuoco diretto/indiretto

Ø Responsabile di circa il 50% degli attacchi effettuati nel Paese, per la maggior parte nell’area diMogadiscio

The The TalibanTalibanØ The Taliban (students), who refer to themselves as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, are a Sunni Islamic

fundamentalist movement in Afg currently waging an insurgency, or jihad within that country

Ø From 1996 to 2001, the Taliban held power over ¾ of Afghanistan, and enforced a strict interpretation of Sharia, or Islamic law. The Talib emerged in 1994 as one of the prominent factions in the Afghan Civil War and largely consisted of students (talib) from the Pashtun areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan who had been educated in traditional Islamic schools, and fought during the Soviet–Afghan War

Ø Under the leadership of Mohammed Omar, the movement spread throughout most of Afghanistan, sequestering power from the Mujahideen warlords. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was established in 1996 and the Afghan capital was transferred from Kabul to Kandahar. It held control of most of the country until being overthrown after the American-led invasion of Afghanistan in Nov 2001 following the September 11 attacks. At its peak, formal diplomatic recognition of the Taliban's government was acknowledged by only three nations: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The group later regrouped as an insurgency movement to fight the American-backed Karzai administration and the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).

Ø The Taliban's ideology has been described as combining an "innovative" form of sharia Islamic law basedon Deobandi fundamentalism and the militant Islamism and Salafi jihadism of Osama bin Laden with Pashtunsocial and cultural norms known as Pashtunwali,] as most Taliban are Pashtun tribesmen

Codice consuetudinario ed etico non scritto e stile di vita tradizionale del popolo pashtunnato in tempi preistorici e preservato ancora oggi, perlopiù nelle aree tribali rurali. Il suosignificato può essere interpretato come "la via dei Pashtun" o "il codice della vita". Leorigini del Pastunwali risalgono al periodo pre-islamico. È stato adottato anche da altreetnie afghane o pakistane.

Ø Nang: onore (e vergogna)Ø Melmastiya: ospitalità (asilo)Ø Ghairat: dignità (onore)Ø Badal: vendetta (faida)Ø Namus: onore delle donne

Il Il PashtunwaliPashtunwali

Composition Methodology ofIntervention

Asymmetry ofactions (not means)

Contemporary (internet, social network) and traditional (night letters, word of mouth) Mass-

Media

Traditional Warfare (terrorism, guerrilla, conventional attacks)

AfghanAfghan InsurgencyInsurgency

International Terrorism

(AQ, IMU, DAESH)

Regional Terrorism(HIG, TTP, HQN, LET)

Local/Rural Insurgency and Drug Trade Criminality (TB)

Ø Before Sep 11th weak and failing states were primarily seen as a humanitarian problem, not a security threat.

Ø After Sep 11th terrorists exploited their weakness to establish safe havens where they can recruit and train terrorist, plan attacks, raise funds through the exploitation of natural resources and/or criminal activities (smuggling and drug trafficking) and seek refuge from counter-terrorist campaigns.

Ø Weak states, even if do not directly support terrorists, may be unable to prevent terrorists from bribing their officials or infiltrating their institutions to obtain passports and other official documents, buy weapons, obtain intelligence about potential targets, information about counter-terrorist campaigns, etc..

Ø Weak state governments may also enter into direct cooperation with terrorists, and even come to depend on their support to stay in power, as was the case with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

FailedFailed StatesStates

UnemploymentUnemployment AmongAmong Young People Young People 20162016

Climate Change, Fragility & ConflictsClimate Change, Fragility & ConflictsØ Climate change increasingly contributes to fragility, mainly by

contributing to conflicts surrounding natural resources and livelihood insecurity. NSAGs proliferate and can operate more easily in these fragile and conflict-affected environments where the state has little to no authority (‘ungoverned space’) and is lacking legitimacy. Sometimes, NSAGs also try to fill the gap left by the state by providing basic services in order to gain legitimacy and secure trust and support among the local population.

Ø Climate change has increasingly negative impacts on livelihoods in many countries and regions, e.g. through food insecurity or water/land scarcities. This makes the affected population groups more vulnerable not only to deteriorating negative climate impacts but also to recruitment from NSAGs. These groups can offer alternative livelihoods and economic incentives and/or respond to political and socio-economic grievances.

Ø NSAGs use natural resources as a weapon of war. In resource-scarce and fragile environments, NSAGs can use natural resources such as water as a weapon of war, or inhibit access to natural resources. This in turn further compounds and exacerbates climate-induced resource scarcities. This dynamic might become exacerbated as climate change increases the scarcity of natural resources in certain regions of the world; the scarcer resources become, the more power goes to those who control them.

the Butterfly Effect is the sensitive dependance on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can resultin large differences in a later state.

World Climate ChangeWorld Climate Change

Ø Water scarcity affects more than 40% of the global populationØ At least 1.8 billion people use a source of drinking water that is contaminatedØ Over 1.7 billion people are currently living in river basins where water use exceeds rechargeØ 2.4 billion people lack access to basic sanitation services, such as toilets or latrinesØ More than 80% of wastewater resulting from human activities is discharged into rivers or

sea without any pollution removalØ Hydropower is the most important and widely-used renewable source of energy and as of

2011, represented 16 per cent of total electricity production worldwideØ Approximately 70% of all water from rivers, lakes and aquifers is used for irrigationØ Increasingly negative impacts on livelihoods in many countries and regions (food insecurity

or water/land scarcities). This makes the affected populations more vulnerable to recruitment by NSAGs. These groups can offer alternative livelihoods and economic incentives and/or respond to political and socio-economic grievances

Source: UN Sustainable Development 2017

Water Scarcity: a Threat MultiplierWater Scarcity: a Threat Multiplier

WHO/Unicef Joint Monitoring Programme 2017

Ø Limited Access to Potable WaterØ Malnutrition Ø Under-nutrition

Drinking Water World Situation

663 million people are still without drinking water

TerroristTerrorist AttacksAttacks byby RegionRegion 20162016

• + 14% terrorist attacks(4.151 vs 3.633 year 2015)

• + 174% in Western Countries(96 vs 35 year 2015)

2016 Most Frequent Targets

2016 2016 TerrorismTerrorism Impact Impact byby Business SectorBusiness Sector

7. Turism

International International ArrivalsArrivals in in MedMed CountriesCountries –– 2015 2015 vs vs 2016 2016

W. Europe, N. America, Australia (numbers of victims vs numbers of attacks) – War on the Rocks

Nonostante l'incompetenza di alcune sue reclute lo Stato Islamico in 17 attacchi nell'Unione Europea tra il 2015 e il 2017 ha provocato 317 morti e 1.458 feriti. A questi vanno aggiunti più di 1.500 morti nel resto del mondo

Financer Ensures financial support for the acquisition of right material, the necessary assembly ofequipment, the recruitment of personnel and the conduct of the planned action

Planner Plans and coordinate all cell activities

Recruiter Recruits all personnel to conduct the attack

Trainer Trains all members chosen to conduct the attack

Supplier Obtains all necessary components and materials to build an explosive device. Alternatively, makes it available already assembled

Transporter Makes available components and materials (or assembled device) at the right time and place.

Bomb-maker Manufactures the explosive device

Emplacer Places the explosive device

Trigger Detonates the explosive device

Exploiter Takes footage of the attack and effectively disseminates it to maximize the effect

Strike Cell CompositionStrike Cell Composition

Cyber Domain Cyber Domain Cyber warfare has added new dimensions to politically based threats, scalability of tactics deniability of action and strategies of containment – all made possible, and performed remotely, with a new weapon: the computer.

Ø Espionage: the most frequent activity, and also the most important. It refers to the use of computer to gain access to classified information. Can be perpetrated by States, terrorist organizations or from individuals.

Ø Terrorism: the continuous proliferation of computer espionage reinforces the expansion of cyber-terrorism. It generally concerns attacks of political nature on computer systems, in order to create social heavy discomforts, civil unrest or riots.

Ø War: although less visible than traditional acts of war, computer war is a state-level attack from a country or from a high level organization in order to damage the infrastructures or other fundamental components of another nation. It generally concerns some coordinated attacks perpetrated in parallel with more traditional military actions.

Ø Hacktivism: is the act of hacking, or breaking into a computer system, for a politically or sociallymotivated purpose. The individual who performs an act of hacktivism is said to be a hacktivist.

Ø Cyber effects everything that we do.

Ø Cyber security looks to the protection of Infrastructures, Industrial Systems, Platforms, and the communication and interconnection of all of those.

Ø Cyber is the heart of the matter everything is connected: • network, computer, phone, platform, vehicle, etc.• it is the soldiers walking down with full communication system on their back.

Ø The cyber threat to our infrastructures is dynamic and rapidly evolving.

The Cyber Challenge The Cyber Challenge

Extremists and Extremists and Terrorist are Often Tech SavvyTerrorist are Often Tech SavvyØ Terrorist groups have deliberately recruited among individuals with tech skills

and who are sophisticated since before 9/11 at using social media and internet

Ø These skills are used not just for propaganda and recruitment purposes but also for fundraising

Ø This activity is often carried out in easily accessible fora and is not confined to the Dark Web

Ø As billions worldwide used encrypted social media such as WhatsApp—the communications will be harder to penetrate

Ø Websites such as Reddit can be used--Dark Net Markets (teach online how to use the dark web)

Ø Cyberworld may be increasingly important to terrorists in their operations and fundraising in the future

Data: TraCCC Research Center

The The ThreatThreat of of NuclearNuclear & & RadiologicalRadiological TerrorismTerrorism

Nuclear Terrorism(low probability event)

(Weapons of mass destruction)

Seizing an Intact Nuclear Weapon

Acquire nuke weapon from an arsenal of a nuclear-armedstate

Making an Improvised Nuclear Device (IND)

Acquire (sufficient) fissile material (HEU, plutonium) to build an IND

Radiological Terrorism(more likely to occur)

(Weapons of mass disruption)

Dispersing Radioactive Materials (so-called dirtybomb)

Radioactive material dispersedby use of conventionalexplosives or with other means

Attacking Nuclear Facilities Attack or sabotage of a nuclearfacility (nuke power plant or waste storage)

Source: Federation of American Scientists (FAS)

BiologicalBiological & & ChemicalChemical TerrorismTerrorismØ Biological & Chemical weapons are less expensive than nuclear weapons (and

easier to have or produce)

Ø The weapons can be manufactured in ways that use civilian technology and materials (manufacturing them does not require large observable infrastructures to be established, thus making it hard to detect their production)

Ø Biological weapon would have a more devastating impact since people infected with a biological agent can spread the disease for months and over a broad geographical region

Ø Chemical weapon would only affect people who are near the place of its release (the chemical would dissipate with time) (i.e., Tokio subway sarin attack – 1995)

ForeignForeign FightersFighters

Source Soufan Group Oct 2017

Estimated more than 40.000 FF from110 Countries

Source: Thomas Hegghammer

Returnees Categories (different level of risk)Returnees Categories (different level of risk)Ø Those who left early or after only a short stay and were never particularly integrated with IS

Ø Those who stayed longer, but did not agree with everything that IS was doing

Ø Those who had no qualms about their role or IS tactics and strategy, but decided to move on

Ø Those who were fully committed to IS but forced out by circumstances, such as the loss of territory, or were captured and sent to their home countries

Ø Those who were sent home or abroad by IS to fight for the caliphate elsewhere

Remaining members with ISIS are knowledgeable experts in communication, explosivesand other expertise needed.

CategorizationCategorization ofof HomegrownHomegrown TerroristsTerrorists 11//3 3

Relevance LevelVisibility Inspired (by ideology)

Predictability Enabled

Capability Directed

Isolated

Connected

Networked

Supported

Category Characteristics

Isolated(lone actors)

• Socially isolated and inspired by the ideology (even if connected to other extremists and terrorists through social media)

• Despite a tendency to reveal their beliefs and sometimes even their plans to other people, tend to be less visible due to their absence from or comparatively peripheral position within known extremist networks

• Untrained individuals who act independently of any terrorist organization to plan and conduct attacks largely by themselves

• Due to lack of training, also tend to be much less capable on the whole and typically rely on readily-available, low-tech weaponry

• tend to be unpredictable• More likely to slip through the counter-terrorism net and actually execute their plans, but

are less likely to achieve large-scale destruction and fatalities

Connected(autonomous groups)

• Link to others (terrorists) yet operationally independent from them• Only the most basic level of skill• Possible connection with local criminality

CategorizationCategorization ofof HomegrownHomegrown TerroristsTerrorists 2/3 2/3

Category Characteristics

Networked(remotly-enabled)

• Embedded within and coordinate their activities together with broader extremist networks• More visible than lone-actor terrorists (despite their frequent use of encrypted

communications) • The degree of support is indicative of the level of organizational connection• The encouragement and guidance they receive almost certainly makes a difference to their

willingness to conduct attacks and to their operational decision-making• Closer to acts of lone-actor terrorism in terms of physical destruction than to organizationally

supported attacks• Possible connection with local criminality

Organizationally Supported

• Trained, funded, and logistically supported by (networked) foreign terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State or al-Qaeda

• internationally connected with fellow extremists (through social media)• Trained in camps abroad with weapons, explosives and construction of IED• Large combat experience• Received ongoing financial and logistical support• Most devastating form of jihadist terrorism

CategorizationCategorization ofof HomegrownHomegrown TerroristsTerrorists 3/3/33

Spectrum of HomeSpectrum of Home--grown Islamist Terrorism in Western Countriesgrown Islamist Terrorism in Western Countries

(FTO = Foreign Terrorist Organization)

Identikit of Average Terrorist (in Europe) Identikit of Average Terrorist (in Europe)

Ø Young age: men of 20-30 years

Ø Strongly influenced (ideologically and religiously)

Ø Fully available for direct actions

Ø Do not question orders

Ø Available for extreme sacrifice (martyrdom - not all)

Ø Capability, speed of movement and environmental adaptability

Ø Ability to support stress and isolation

Ø Deep contempt/hate for the Western world

Ø About 50% with a criminal past (Source: International Center for the Study of Radicalization ICSR)

Zakat (charity) Donations from wealthy people (might be unwilling)

Pro-combatants funds Money, weapons or goods provided by national or international network

Ransoms Kidnapping of non-combatant citizens (often westerners)

Illegal activities Escort and protection to convoys, weapons commerce, etc.

Human being trafficking Managements of migration flows

Ghanima (spoils of war) Looting and pillaging (historical exhibits)

Oil smuggling Oil illegal trade and market

Government funding Funds ensured to fighting factions from various states

Ways of Funding Ways of Funding ISIS & OthersISIS & Others

ISIS Financial ISIS Financial SourcesSources

Data: Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

The The HawalaHawala SystemSystem

RelationshipRelationship BetweenBetween CriminalCriminal OrganizationsOrganizations and and TerrorismTerrorism

Ø The absence of frontiers, the open markets and a great facility of transportation and communication have favored both terrorists and criminals. Thanks to the progress of the technology, communication, finance and transports, the nets of terrorists and criminal organized groups can easily connect and operate at international level by sharing their resources and competences (also tactics).

Ø The traffic of immigrants/human beings and drug, the movement of weapons and others items (i.e. documents), and money recycling have become integral part of convergent activities with terrorist organizations, using revenue to fight, recruit, govern and sustain operations.

Ø Lack of full cooperation between different countries (share information, judiciary & police sectors, normative convergence among crime laws).

Source: Joint Research Center of Transnational Crime

OrganizedOrganized Crime Crime GroupsGroups in in EuropeEurope

Ø Drug trafficking

Ø Weapons (small arms) trafficking

Ø Illegal fishing

Ø Kidnapping (and ransom)

Ø Extortion

Ø Human trafficking (acquisition by improper means) & migrants smuggling (illegal entry into a State)

Ø Smuggling (oil, tobacco, cars, antiquities, rice, sugar, pharmaceuticals, etc.)

Ø Forged documents, counterfeit or real

Ø Money laundering

Illegal/Criminal Illegal/Criminal ActivitiesActivities

ØTransnational criminal networks profit from trafficking and illegal trades in drugs, arms, persons, toxic waste, natural resources, counterfeit consumer goods, and wildlife.

ØBillions of dollars from these activities flow through the global economy each year distorting local economies, diminishing legitimate business revenues, deteriorating social conditions and fueling conflicts

Ø Illicit trade has a negative impact on economic stability, social welfare, public health, public safety & our environment - examples include:

• Health & Safety - narcotics, fake medicines & foods, defective materials.• Environment - endanger wildlife & rain-forests through illegal environmental crimes.• Exploitation - forced human trafficking, prostitution and slavery.• Terrorism - financing criminality and terrorism.• Government - reduction of tax revenues & legitimate employment.

Illicit Trade Illicit Trade -- A TransA Trans--national Problemnational Problem

New Trends in FundingNew Trends in FundingØ Natural resources and environmental crime are the fastest growing form of illicit

trade and terrorists have benefited as well, this is very valuable for terrorists because it is hard to trace the provenance of oil, timber, minerals, etc.

Ø Centrality of cybercrime and also of abuse of social media—helps avoid clearly criminal association because it is online

Ø Role of Natural Resources—oil, minerals, timber evident in Middle East, Afghanistan, in West Africa

Ø Facebook and weapons trade in Libya

Ø Sale of cigarettes that may be funding source for illicit actors goes through Facebook and other social media

Ø Involvement of different forms of social media eBay—1990s (internet trade) 2000s— Facebook, Snapchat, WhatsApp, Instagram (mobile and social media trade)—some of these are encrypted

106

ISIL ISIL ReducingReducing RevenuesRevenues and and ExpensesExpenses(data from the report World Atlas of Illicit flows - Nellemann, C et al., 2018)

Ø Territory: ISIS as one of the few terrorist groups identified in a territory

Ø Many sources: from imposing taxes to illegal trafficking in many differentsectors and petty crimes

Ø ISIS was unique in recent history as one of the few terrorist groups to generatemost of its funding from the territory it held—revenues amassed from taxationand extortion, sale of oil and various oil-related products, looting, confiscationof property and cash, and fines levied against the population by the religiouspolice for a litany of offenses

Ø Expenditures toward the elite, the military and the population

ISIS ISIS OldOld Business Business ModelModel

Data: www.transcrime.it

Ø Moving versus a new business model: more media, more trafficking and, in thefuture, more organised crime, cybercrime and infiltration in the legitimateeconomy of the area (i.e., exploiting reconstruction and extorting constructioncompanies).

ØWhile ISIS territorial control has declined, the financial power still retains; ISISsurviving leadership is alleged to have smuggled as much as $ 400 million outof Iraq & Syria and used it to invest in legitimate businesses—hotels, hospitals,farms, and car dealerships— throughout the region, including in Turkey, wheresome militants have also reportedly made large purchases of gold.

Ø ISIS financial holdings and funding model have made it the wealthiestinsurgent group in history. Its diversified funding portfolio and ability to raisemoney through criminal activities provides it with an opportunity to survive.

Changing the Changing the Business Business ModelModel

2012-2016 Illicit Trade

The Drug trafficking The Drug trafficking

TransTrans--SaharaSahara TraffickingTrafficking NovNov 20162016

Source Norwegian Centre for Global Analyses

Al-Mourabitoun

2016: 65 mil people in movement

• Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (AQIM)• Al-Mourabitoun• Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS)• Boko Haram (Islamic State West Africa Province/ISWAP)

Antiquities CommerceAntiquities CommerceØDecades ago the illicit trade in antiquities was a smaller number of

high value items sold through dealers

ØToday, the transactions are more numerous—individuals buy through websites and use various payment forms including Bitcoinand crypto-currency in general

ØFor example, large number of coins are sold where the provenance is not clear and can be obscured, also counterfeit coins, manipulate cuneiform, false provenance (subterfuge)

Data: TraCCC Research Center

Antiquities Routes Antiquities Routes of Tradeof Trade

Ø Syria, Iraq, Libya (origin)Ø Turkey, Lebanon, Bulgaria, Israel, UAE, Thailand (transit

countries)Ø USA, Europe ( ultimate destination for some of the

antiquities)Ø Also demand of higher end items is presumed in the Middle

East

Data: TraCCC Research Center

The World’s The World’s PiracyPiracy HotspotsHotspots

Lo Lo Stato Islamico Stato Islamico OggiOggiØ ISIS controlla ancora territori in Siria e in Iraq

Ø Si registra l’espansione in Estremo Oriente

Ø Attività nelle Filippine, Malesia e in diverse isole dell’Indonesia dove vige già la Sharia (legge islamica)

Ø Forte crescita nel Sub-continente indiano (Maldive e Bangladesh)

Ø In Africa dove è in competizione con Al Qaeda per la supremazia territoriale

Ø Attività e attentati in Sudan, Ciad, Nigeria, Somalia, Mali, Cameroun, Eritrea, Mozambico, Etiopia, Mauritania, Niger. Cellule in Egitto, Tunisia, Marocco, Libia e in Algeria

Destroyed safe haven andbasis of operations

.

EuropeEurope: : LessLess OperationalOperational ActivitiesActivities -- More Social Media More Social Media Ø ISIS continues to use social media to urge its sympathizers in

Europe to conduct attacks in their country of residence.

ØThe group continues to disseminate various attack methodologies, as well as instructions for creating bombs and explosive vests.

ØThe recent trend is far from directed and enabled attacks and moving towards inspired attacks, which is the result of the degradation of the external operational capabilities of ISIS.

ØNevertheless, both ISIS and Al-Qaeda have recently shown interest in more sophisticated attacks, including attacks with chemical materials or remotely controlled improvised explosive devices.

DaeshDaesh ContinuesContinues toto Focus on Focus on IncitingInciting TerrorismTerrorism

2015Germany: Safia S. stabs pllicemanU.S.: San Bernardino California, 14 dead

2016Turkey: female suicide bomber kills 1 policeman

in IstanbulLibya: all-women units, ‘hundreds’ trained for

combat, suicide opsFrance: 4 women and Notre Dame bomb

attemptFrance: 2 teenagers detained on suspicion of

terrorist attackKenya: 3 women stab police officerMorocco: 10 women and suicide plot during

electionsIndonesia: 4 women in suicide plot on

Presidential palace

2017• Iran: female detained in coordinated attack

(mausoleum)• Mosul: 38 female suicide bombers (some

with children)• Philippines: women in combat• Tunisia: possible security threat, women

banned from Emirates flights from UAE?

Source: Joana Cook

New New ProfilesProfiles, New , New ActorsActors Create Create UncertaintyUncertainty: Women : Women

New New ProfilesProfiles, New , New ActorsActors Create Create UncertaintyUncertainty

Gangsters Copycat CBRN

Source: ICSR, Basra and Neumann (2016)

Women Reciprocal Radicalisation