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Low Voltage IHP MotorsWorld & Chinese Market Updates
Alex Chausovsky – Research Director
Wilmer Zhou – Senior AnalystMarch 2012
Research Methodology Description World Market for Low Voltage IHP Motors
Presented by Alex Chausovsky
Chinese Market for Low Voltage IHP Motors Presented by Wilmer Zhou
Questions
Presentation Overview
Research Methodology DescriptionBase Year Data: Primary Research
Collect sales revenues and unit shipments from leading suppliers to each product market via Excel-based questionnaires: high participation rates
Supplement data collection with extensive interviews with strategic marketing and product management personnel
Consult with leading industry trade, distributor and end-user associations
Consider data from various quarterly market trackers
Forecasting: Primary & Secondary Research
Economic forecasts (GDP) sourced from IMF Machinery Production (MP) forecasts are sourced from IMS
Research’s annual Worldwide Machinery Production Yearbook study
Interviews provide insight into which market segments will outperform or underperform in the future
Products Covered:IE1 (Standard Efficiency)
Eff2 and below; Below EPAct
IE2 (High Efficiency)Eff1; EPAct
IE3 (Premium Efficiency)Above Eff1; NEMA Premium
IE4 (Super Premium Efficiency)Much higher than Eff1; Above NEMA Premium
Other Non-classified8 / 10 / 12 pole motors>375kWSubmersible motorsFire pump motorsAll motors that fall outside NEMA and/or IEC
DC Motors*
The World Market for Low Voltage IHP Motors
≈ 44 million low voltage motors shipped in 2010
$13,541.2
$10,912.8$12,471.9
$14,975.0
$17,444.9
$20,121.9
$22,969.7
$26,068.6
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
0
5,000
10,000
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Grow
th (%)
Reve
nues
($M
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Low Voltage Motors MarketMarket Size ($M) and Growth
Revenues
Growth
The World Market for Low Voltage IHP Motors
Low Voltage IHP Motors – Legislative Timeline
Source: IMS Research Feb-12
Timeline for Motor Efficiency Class Transitions Around the World
IE2: Canada & US
IE2: Mexico
EuP Directive signed in EU
IE2: Oceania
EISA signed in US
IE1: China (Grade 1,2,3)
IE2: S. Korea, Phase 1
ErP Directive signed in EU
IE2: Brazil
IE2: S. Korea, Phase 2
IE3: US
IE2: EU, Phase 1
IE3: Canada
IE2+: China
IE3: EU, Phase 2
IE3: EU, Phase 3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Low Voltage IHP Motors – World Data
IE1$6,833.9 54.8%
IE2$3,805.3 30.5%
IE3$401.1 3.2%
IE4$137.0 1.1%
DC$510.7 4.1%
Others$783.9 6.3%
2010 Low Voltage Motors MarketProduct Type Breakdown ($M)
IE1, 54.8%
IE1, 8.2%
IE2, 30.5%
IE2, 58.8%
IE3, 3.2%
IE3, 19.9%
IE4 (PM), 1.1% IE4 (PM), 4.8%DC, 4.1% DC, 1.5%
Others, 6.3% Others, 6.8%
0%
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100%
2010 2015
Low Voltage Motors MarketProduct Type Composition 2010 vs. 2015
Low Voltage IHP Motors – World Data
EMEA$4,129.6 33.1%
Americas$3,554.9 28.5%
Rest of Asia$2,106.5 16.9%
China$2,680.9 21.5%
2010 Low Voltage Motors MarketRegional Breakdown ($M)
Low Voltage IHP Motors – World Data
Low Voltage IHP Motors – World Data
EMEA, 33.1% EMEA, 29.1%
Americas, 28.5%Americas, 26.0%
Asia Pacific, 16.9%Asia Pacific, 18.9%
China, 21.5% China, 26.1%
0%
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2010 2015
Low Voltage Motors MarketRegional Composition 2010 vs. 2015
Low Voltage IHP Motors – World Data
Top Industry SectorsCommercial HVAC (30%)Food, Beverage & Tobacco (13%)Mining (6%)Utilities (5%)Paper & PaperboardElevators & EscalatorsConveyorsAutomotiveChemicals & PetroleumPackaging & LabelingRubber & Plastics
Top SuppliersSiemens (8.5%)Baldor (7.0%)ABB (6.0%)WEGRegal BeloitTeco (Teco-Westinghouse)Leroy Somer (Emerson)ToshibaHuali
≈ 12.5 million low voltage motors shipped in 2010
The Chinese Market for Low Voltage IHP Motors
$2,126.3$2,291.4
$2,680.9
$3,104.5
$3,554.6
$4,098.5
$4,770.6
$5,619.8
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
0
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2,000
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4,000
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6,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Grow
th (%)
Reve
nues
($M
)
Chinese Low Voltage AC Motors MarketMarket Size ($M) and Growth
Revenues
Growth
Low Voltage IHP Motors – China Data
IE1$2,375.3 88.6%
IE2$230.6 8.6%
IE3$5.4 0.2%
IE4$16.1 0.6%
Others$53.6 2.0%
2010 Chinese Low Voltage AC Motors MarketProduct Type Breakdown ($M)
Low Voltage IHP Motors – China Data
IE1, 57.8%
IE1, 88.6%
IE2, 36.0%
IE2, 8.6%IE3, 2.9% IE3, 0.2%IE4 (PM), 0.9% IE4 (PM), 0.6%
Other Non-classified, 2.4%
Other Non-classified, 2.0%
0%
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100%
World China
Low Voltage AC Motors MarketProduct Type Composition World vs. China in 2010
GB 18613 – 2006 revised to GB 18613 – 201x
The old grade 3 in GB 18613 – 2006 will become void
Grade 2 from GB 18613 – 2006 will become grade 3 in GB 18613 – 201x (correspond to the IE2 )
The new grade 2 will directly correspond to the IE3
The new grade 1 will refer to IE4 (IEC 60034-31) The new grade 3 and grade 2 will be enforced in
4 years and 6 years later respectively after the GB 18613 – 201x released.
GB 18613 – 201x has been delivered to the Standardization Administration of China for approval and will be issued in 2012.
Low Voltage IHP Motors – China Data
Top Industry SectorsCommercial HVAC (17.5%)Mining (13.5%)Cranes & Hoists (10%)Food, Beverage & Tobacco (7.5%)Conveyors (6%)Elevators & EscalatorsChemicals & PetroleumMachine ToolsMetalsPaper & Paperboard
Top SuppliersHuali (6.5%)Siemens (6%)Luan JiangHuai (5%)ABB (5%)Anhui WannanTech Full SimoHengshui (OX)JiamusiNanyang Explosion
Speaker contact information
Alex ChausovskyResearch Director - Motors & Mechanical Power TransmissionIMS ResearchAustin, Texas, USAPhone: +1 512 582 2012E-mail: [email protected]
Wilmer ZhouSenior Analyst – China AutomationIMS ResearchShanghai, ChinaPhone: +86 21 62701823E-mail: [email protected]
www.imsresearch.com
Questions?
