Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Macroeconomic Indicators

Real GDP (chained 2009 dollars, trillions) Real GDP growth (percentage change of log)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

14

15

16

2015 Q4: 16.5T

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−10

−5

0

5

2015 Q4: 1.0%

FRED: GDPC1 D1(ln(FRED: GDPC1))

Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index Non-manufacturing index

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201630

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Feb 2016: 49.5

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201630

40

50

60

70

Feb 2016: 57.8

Quandl: ISM/MAN PMI FRED: NMFBAI

Industrial production index (2007=100) Capacity utilization (percentage of capacity)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201685

90

95

100

105

110

Jan 2016: 106.8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201665

70

75

80

Jan 2016: 77.1

Quandl: FRED/INDPRO Quandl: FRED/TCU

briandew.wordpress.com — Updated: March 12, 2016

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Personal savings rate (percentage of disposable income) Inventories to sales ratio

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan 2016: 5.2%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

Dec 2015: 1.39

Quandl: FRED/PSAVERT Quandl: FRED/ISRATIO

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) (% of GDP) PCE on durable goods (percentage of GDP)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

66.5

67

67.5

68

68.5

69

Jan 2016: 69%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

Jan 2016: 7.5%

Quandl: FRED/PCE / FRED/GDP Quandl: FRED/PCEDG / FRED/GDP

Corporate profits after taxes (percentage of GDP) Corporate profits after taxes (growth of log)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

5

6

7

8

9

10

2015 Q3: 8.3%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−4

−2

0

2

4

2015 Q3: -0.2%

Quandl: FRED/CPATAX / FRED/GDP D1(ln(Quandl: FRED/CPATAX))

Updated: March 12, 2016 2

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Nonfinancial corporate liabilities (flow, percentage of GDP) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

2015 Q3: 1.9%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201650

60

70

80

90

100

110

Feb 2016: 91.7

Quandl: FED/FA104104005 Q / FRED/GDP University of Michigan Survey of Consumers

Labor Market Indicators

Unemployment rate Labor force participation rate

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Feb 2016: 4.9%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

62

63

64

65

66

67

Feb 2016: 62.9%

FRED: UNRATE FRED: CIVPART

New jobless claims (weekly, thousands) Real median weekly wage (1982–84 dollars)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016200

300

400

500

600

700

Mar 05, 2016: 259,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

330

335

340

345

2015 Q4: 345

FRED: ICSA FRED: LES1252881600Q

Updated: March 12, 2016 3

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Wages and output (nonfarm business, 2005=100) Labor share of output (nonfarm business, 2005=100)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

90

100

110

120

130

Wages

Output

2015 Q4: Wages: 128.4 Output: 118

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

96

98

100

102

104

2015 Q4: 99.3

Quandl: FRED/PRS85006063, FRED/OUTNFB Quandl: FRED/PRS85006173

Equity Market Indicators

S&P 500 Nasdaq Composite Index

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016500

1,000

1,500

2,000

50w ma

Mar 11, 2016: 2,022.19

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

50w ma

Mar 11, 2016: 4,748.47

Quandl: YAHOO/INDEX GSPC FRED: NASDAQCOM

Dow Jones Industrial Average (thousands) ...combined and indexed (2004=100)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

50w ma

Mar 11, 2016: 17,213.31

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

50

100

150

200

250

S&PNASDAQ

DJIA

Quandl: BCB/UDJIAD1

Updated: March 12, 2016 4

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

CBOE volatility index (VIX) Shiller index of price to earnings ratios

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160

20

40

60

80

Mar 11, 2016: 16.5

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

15

20

25

Feb 2016: 24.05

CBOE: VIX Quandl: MULTPL/SHILLER PE RATIO MONTH

Interest Rates and Bond Market Indicators

Effective fed funds rate Fed excess reserves of depository corporations (USD billion)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

quad Mar 10, 2016: 0.36%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Mar 02, 2016: 2,355B

Quandl: FRED/DFF Quandl: FRED/EXCSRESNW

Cash and cash equivalent deposits (M2) as percentage of GDP Average rate of return on M2

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

50

55

60

65

70

Feb 2016: 68.9%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Feb 2016: 0.09%

Quandl: FRED/M2 / FRED/GDP Quandl: FRED/M2OWN

Updated: March 12, 2016 5

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

5-yr treasuries, real yield curve rates 2- and 10-year treasury constant maturity rates

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−2

0

2

4

Mar 10, 2016: 0.10%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2yr

10yr

Mar 10, 2016:2yr: 0.93%; 10yr: 1.93%

Quandl: USTREASURY/REALYIELD Quandl: USTREASURY/YIELD

Yield spread (10 year treasury - 3 month t-bill) TED Spread (LIBOR over treasury)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−1

0

1

2

3

4

Mar 10, 2016: 1.62%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

Mar 04, 2016: 0.35%

Quandl: FRED/YIELD - FRED/BILLRATES Quandl: FRED/TEDRATE

AAA corporate bonds (yield) Corporate bonds total return index

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

3

4

5

6

Mar 04, 2016: 3.89%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

Mar 10, 2016: 2,618.91

Quandl: MOODY/WAAAYLD Quandl: ML/TRI

Updated: March 12, 2016 6

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

High yield corporate bonds (yield) High yield corporate bonds (spread over 10yr treasury)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

5

10

15

20

25

Mar 10, 2016: 8.57%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160

5

10

15

20

Mar 10, 2016: 6.64%

Quandl: ML/USTRI Quandl: ML/USTRI - USTREASURY/YIELD

Government and Policy Indicators

Total public debt (percentage of GDP) Economic policy uncertainty index

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

60

70

80

90

100

110

2015 Q3: 100.5%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

50

100

150

200

250

Feb 2016: 128.7

FRED: GFDEGDQ188S Baker, Bloom, and Davis: Economic Policy Uncertainty

Federal Government deficit (percentage of GDP) Defense and space IP (2012=100)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−12

−10

−8

−6

−4

−2

2015 Q3: -4.2%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

70

80

90

100

Dec 2015: 92.7

Quandl: FRED/ (GRECPT - GEXPEND) / GDP Quandl: FED/IP B52300 S

Updated: March 12, 2016 7

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Prices

Consumer price index (CPI), 12-month % change CPI major components, 12-month % change

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−2

0

2

4

6

Jan 2016: 1.3% −10 −5 0 5

Healthcare

Housing

All-Items CPI

Food

Apparel

Transportation

Energy

3

2.1

1.3

0.9

−0.6

−0.6

−6.5

2.6

2.1

0.7

0.8

−0.8

−4.4

−12.6

January 2016 December 2015

D1(FRED: CPIAUCSL) D1(FRED: CPI Indexes)

Producer price index (PPI), 12-month % change PPI selected components, 12-month % change

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016−20

−10

0

10

20

Jan 2016: -4.9% −20 −15 −10 −5 0

Chemicals

Lumber & Wood

Rubber & Plastic

All-commod. PPI

Farm Products

Metals

Energy

−1.8

−2.4

−2.6

−4.9

−7.9

−11

−14.7

−3.7

−2.2

−2.7

−6.7

−14.9

−11.4

−19.3

January 2016 December 2015

D1(FRED: PPIACO) D1(FRED: PPI Indexes)

Oil price (USD per barrel, WTI) PPI growth: metals (percentage change)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mar 11, 2016: $38.50

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−20

−10

0

10

20

Jan 2016: -11%

Quandl: CHRIS/CME CL1 FRED: WPU10

Updated: March 12, 2016 8

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Average sales price for new houses (thousands of USD) Food price (world, 2002–04=100)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

250

300

350

400

Jan 2016: $365,700

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Feb 2016: 150.2

Quandl: FRED/ASPNHSUS FAO: FFPI

Gold Price (USD) Silver Price (USD)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Mar 11, 2016: $1,262.25

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160

10

20

30

40

50

Mar 10, 2016: $15.27

Quandl: LBMA/GOLD Quandl: LBMA/SILVER

Trade and External Sector Indicators

Trade weighted dollar (1973=100) Indirect exchange rates (USD-CUR)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201665

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Mar 04, 2016: 92.35

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

EUR

GBP

CAD

JPY(100)

FRED: DTWEXM Quandl: CURRFX/USD(CUR)

Updated: March 12, 2016 9

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Current account balance (percentage of GDP) Net international investment position (USD, billion)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−6

−5

−4

−3

−2

2015 Q3: -2.7%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016−8,000

−6,000

−4,000

−2,000

2015 Q3: -7,270B

Quandl: FRED/NETFI / FRED/GDP FRED: IIPUSNETIA + IIPUSNETIQ

Balance on advanced tech. (percentage of GDP) Trade balance (percentage of GDP)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−0.5

−0.4

−0.3

−0.2

Dec 2015: -0.5%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−5

−4

−3

−2

Jan 2016: -2.5%

Quandl: USCENSUS/IE 0007 / FRED/GDP Quandl: FRED/BOPGSTB / FRED/GDP

Updated: March 12, 2016 10

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States

Exchange rates

Indirect exchange rates against the US Dollar

Currency As of: Rate1

1 year% ch.

1 month% ch.

1 week% ch.

1 day% ch.

1 yearhigh

1 yearlow

USD - EUR 2016-03-11 0.908 3.00 1.47 −0.14 1.51 0.946 0.863USD - GBP 2016-03-11 0.703 9.67 1.67 −0.02 0.49 0.721 0.630USD - JPY 2016-03-11 113.188 −5.28 −1.00 −0.54 0.29 125.629 111.880USD - CNY 2016-03-11 6.513 4.89 0.42 0.23 0.23 6.590 6.094USD - CAD 2016-03-11 1.332 10.25 −3.77 −0.08 −0.14 1.458 1.195USD - AUD 2016-03-11 1.339 7.97 −4.46 −0.74 −0.06 1.457 1.233USD - CHF 2016-03-11 0.996 7.92 1.02 0.19 1.14 1.030 0.913USD - DKK 2016-03-11 6.773 2.88 1.39 −0.18 1.45 7.058 6.445USD - NZD 2016-03-11 1.494 11.15 −0.68 1.41 −0.08 1.596 1.327USD - SEK 2016-03-11 8.451 2.50 −0.24 −0.38 0.92 8.766 8.099USD - NOK 2016-03-11 8.540 13.50 −0.81 0.58 0.39 8.946 7.317USD - RUB 2016-03-11 71.185 30.73 −8.87 −2.68 0.05 82.900 49.076USD - BRL 2016-03-11 3.696 17.84 −8.10 −1.98 2.21 4.175 2.990USD - TRY 2016-03-11 2.898 9.26 −1.65 −0.24 0.24 3.056 2.576USD - MXN 2016-03-11 17.806 14.27 −5.87 0.22 −0.20 19.140 15.003USD - ZAR 2016-03-11 15.299 22.32 −2.71 −0.02 −0.42 16.870 11.782USD - NGN 2016-03-11 198.965 0.03 0.11 1.44 1.55 200.086 1.000USD - EGP 2016-03-11 7.830 2.92 0.33 1.82 0.27 8.031 7.591USD - THB 2016-03-11 35.290 5.03 −0.83 1.84 0.25 36.495 33.374USD - INR 2016-03-11 67.186 4.68 −1.42 0.38 −0.18 68.797 63.267USD - MYR 2016-03-11 4.113 12.84 −0.29 1.42 −0.15 4.456 3.556USD - ARS 2016-03-11 15.377 41.82 3.78 1.60 0.32 15.815 8.931USD - PHP 2016-03-11 46.789 4.89 −0.99 0.38 0.11 47.889 44.273USD - ILS 2016-03-11 3.896 1.66 0.11 −0.34 0.56 3.975 3.744

Quandl: CURRFX/USD(CUR)

1 The number of units of foreign currency required to purchase one U.S. dollar.

Brian DewWashington, DC

briandew.wordpress.combrianwdew@gmail.com

Updated: March 12, 2016 11