MacroEconomics Unemployment

8/11/2019 MacroEconomics Unemployment

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Desempleo


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Medicin del desempleo


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La relevancia de la tasa de desempleo

La tasa de desempleo (desocupacin) es un resumen de lasalud del mercado laboral.


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Calculando la Tasa de Desempleo

Cada tres meses el INEGI conduce la Encuesta Nacional de

Ocupacin y Empleo (ENOE) a 120,260 viviendas en Mxico para

recabar informacin sobre el mercado laboral.

ENOE Hogares


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Poblacion adulta

Ocupados Ninguno de los dosDesocupados

Fuerza Laboral Inactivos

La poblacion adulta no incluye a las personas institucionalizadas como aquellas

en las escuelas, prisiones y hospitales.



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DESEMPLEADOS:son las personas con ms de cierta edadespecificada y que durante el perodo de referencia estaban:

a) sin empleo para generar ingresos, es decir, no tenan un empleo asalariadoo un empleo independiente en una empresa orientada al mercado,

b) [corrientemente] disponibles para trabajar, es decir, disponibles paratrabajar en empleo asalariado o en empleo independiente durante el perodo

de referencia; yc) en busca de empleo, es decir, haban tomado medidas concretas para

buscar un empleo asalariado o un empleo independiente en un perodo

reciente especificado.


PALABRAS CLAVES EN LA DEFINICIN EDAD MINIMA

ESTAR SIN TRABAJO

ESTAR DISPONIBLE PARA TRABAJAR

HABER BUSCADO EMPLEO


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Poblacin adulta




DESEMPLEADO (desocupado INEGI): Personas que no estandoocupadas en la semana de referencia, buscaron activamente

incorporarse a alguna actividad econmica en algn momento del

ltimo mes transcurrido.


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Poblacin adulta




Fuerza Laboral [Poblacin Econmicamente Activa (PEA) - INEGI]:Personas que durante el periodo de referencia realizaron o tuvieron

una actividad econmica (poblacin ocupada) o buscaron

activamente realizar una en algn momento del mes anterior al da

de la entrevista (poblacin desocupada).


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Poblacin Adulta

Ocupada49,576,734

Ninguno de los dos35,842,634

Desocupada2,732,601

Fuerza Laboral52,309,335

Inactivo

Tasa de desempleo (desocupacin): Porcentaje de la poblacineconmicamente activa (PEA) que se encuentra sin trabajar, pero que

est buscando trabajo.


Tasa de desempleo=

Desocupados

Fuerza Laboral =

2,732,601

52,309,335 = 0.052 5.2%


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Ejercicios


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Limitaciones de la tasa de desempleo

La tasa de desempleo no nos dice nada sobre las

personas que estn trabajando por debajo de su

capacidad productiva.Subocupados

Tasa de desempleo=Desocupados

Fuerza Laboral=

2,732,601

52,309,335= 0.052 5.2%

Poblacin subocupada: Personas ocupadas con la necesidad ydisponibilidad de ofertar ms tiempo de trabajo de lo que su

ocupacin actual les permite.

d l d d l


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The unemployment rate does not tell us about people

who are working in jobs below their capability of for

fewer hours than they desire.

La tasa de desempleo no nos dice nada acerca de cuanto

tiempo el desempleo promedio permanece como tal, o si

el desempleo es causado por personas que estn

cambiando de empleo o por desempleo crnico.

Subocupados

Duracin


Fuerza Laboral=

2,732,601

52,309,335= 0.052 5.2%


i i i d l d d l


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Fuerza Laboral=

2,732,601

52,309,335= 0.052 5.2%

The unemployment rate does not tell us about people

who are working in jobs below their capability of for

fewer hours than they desire.

The unemployment rate does not tell us about how long

the spells of unemployment are, or whether the

unemployment is caused by people switching jobs or

chronic unemployment.

La tasa de desempleo no nos dice nada sobre los

trabajadores desalentados y que han dejado el mercado

laboral.

Subocupados

Duracin

Trabajadores

desalentados


C l l d l T d D l


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Poblacin Adulta

Ocupada49,576,734


Desocupada2,732,601


Inactivo


Tasa de participacin:Porcentaje que representa la poblacineconmicamente activa (PEA) respecto a la de 14 y ms aos de

edad.

Tasa de Participacion = Fuerza LaboralPoblacion Adulta

C l l d l T d D l


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Poblacin Adulta

Ocupada49,576,734


Desocupada2,732,601


Inactivo


Tasa de Participacion = Fuerza LaboralPoblacion Adulta

= 52,309,33588,151,969

= 0.593 59.3%

Es interesante estudiar los cambio de la tasa de participacin

laboral de diferentes grupos demogrficos y a travs del tiempo.


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Ejercicios

D hi V i ti i U l t


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Demographic Variations in Unemployment

Data shows that unemployment rates:

Do not vary much with gender.

Vary greatly with age; people under 25 have much higherrates of unemployment.

Vary quite a bit across ethnic groups; minorities havehigher unemployment rates.


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TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Measuring Unemployment

Fl i t d t f l t


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People made redundant

People sacked

People temporarily laid offPeople resigning

OUTFLOWS

(per period of time)To jobs To outside the

labour force

People taking new jobsPeople returning to old

jobs who had been

temporarily laid off

People who have become disheartenedand give up looking for a job

People who have reached retirement age

People who temporarily withdraw from

labour force (e.g. to raise a family)

People who emigrate

People who die

INFLOWS

(per period of time)

From jobs From outside the labour force

School/college leavers

People returning to the

labour force (e.g. afterraising children)

UNEMPLOYMENT

Flows into and out of unemployment

Categories of Unemployment


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Frictional (Search) Unemployment: Unemployment that occurs as a result ofimperfect information in the labour market. It often takes time for workers to find

jobs (even though there are vacancies) and in the meantime they are unemployed.

Frictional unemployment refers to unemployment caused by

people moving between jobs, careers and locations.



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Seasonal Unemployment: Unemployment that results from compositional changes

in the economy caused by changes in the production or regulations and policy.



Seasonal unemployment is a type of frictional unemployment

characterized by seasonal work.



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Structural Unemployment: Unemployment that results from compositional

changes in the economy caused by changes in production or regulations and policy.



Season unemployment is a type of frictional unemployment


Structural unemployment results from the compositionalchanges in the economy due to technological changes,

competition from abroad or changes in regulation in policy.



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Cyclical Unemployment: Unemployment that results from the recessions and

contraction in the business cycle.



Season unemployment is a type of frictional unemployment


Structural unemployment results from the compositionalchanges in the economy due to technological changes,

competition from abroad or changes in regulation in policy.

Cyclical unemployment is caused by downturns in thebusiness cycle.

Cyclical Unemployment and the Business Cycle


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Cyclical Unemployment and the Business Cycle

The graph shows that in each case, slowing of economic activity

was correlated with spikes in unemployment.

As recession ends, we see a decrease in unemployment.

Economic policy often seeks to smooth out business cycles or

address recessions when they occur.

Concerns about Unemployment


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Concerns about Unemployment

The unemployment rate is one simple number that covers a more

complex story.

Deeper questions include:

What is the cause of unemployment? Is it frictional,

structural or cyclical?

What demographic groups are most affected by

unemployment?

What policies can we adopt to help the unemployed?


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The Natural Rate of Unemployment


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UNDERSTANDING THE NATURALRATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT




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Recall:

Unemployment may be frictional, structural, or cyclical.

Much of the unemployment is caused by changes in the business cycle:

Booms result in people getting jobs and busts in people losing them.



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Recall:

Unemployment may be frictional, structural, or cyclical.

Much of the unemployment is caused by changes in the business cycle:

Booms result in people getting jobs and busts in people losing them.

If the business cycle were completely mitigated, the unemployment rate

left would be the natural rate.

Therefore the natural rate is a measure of frictional and structuralunemployment.

Natural Rate of Unemployment: it is the part of the unemployment rate thatremains after the cyclical component of unemployment has been excluded. It is a

measure of the frictional unemployment and structural unemployment at which

the economy operates efficiently.

Factors Affecting the Natural Rate of Unemployment


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Demographics Older workers tend to keep their jobs longer; as the

population grows older, frictional unemployment goes

down, and the natural rate of unemployment decreases.



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More job training leads people to new jobs sooner, and

so decreases the natural rate.

Policies pertaining to

job training and

unemployment insurance



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so decreases the natural rate; more unemployment

insurance decreases and individuals cost of being

unemployed and raises the natural rate of

unemployment.


job training and




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unemployment.

If regulations make it harder for firms to hire, the natural

rate of unemployment increases.

Policies that discourage

firms from hiring quickly


job training and




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unemployment.

If regulations make it harder for firms to hire, the natural

rate of unemployment increases.

Changes in the structure or composition of the economycan also affect the natural rate of unemployment.

Policies that discourage

firms from hiring quickly

Structural changes


job training and



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Case 15.1Do People Volunteer

to be Unemployed?The distinction between voluntary

and involuntary unemployment

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MacroEconomics Unemployment