Mainstreet Quebec Riding Polls

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 698 Ahuntsic Cartierville residents, 672 Mount Royal residents & 668 Richmond Arthabaska residents by Smart IVR™ on September 21, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a

mixture of landlines and cell phones. Ahuntsic Cartierville margin of error: +/- 3.7%; Mount Royal margin of error: +/- 3.76%, Richmond Arthabaska margin of error: +/- 3.77%, 19 times out of 20.

Results were weighed by age, language & gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

AHUNTSIC CARTIERVILLE, MOUNT ROYAL & RICHMOND ARTHABASKA

September 23, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls finds a strong lead for the Liberals in Mount Royal, the NDP leading in Ahunstic Cartierville and a strong lead for Conservative candidate Alain Rayes in Richmond-Arthabaska. Ahuntsic Cartierville margin of error: +/- 3.7%; Mount Royal margin of error: +/- 3.76%, Richmond Arthabaska margin of error: +/- 3.77%, 19 times out of 20.

AHUNTSIC CARTIERVILLE“This is one of Montréal’s most exciting races and right now it is a close race between the NDP‘s Maria Mourani and the Liberals’ Melanie Joly” said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. “Each brings past political strength to the table, Mourani as the former Bloc MP and incumbent, Joly as a former high-profile mayoral candidate. Mourani leads by 5% among all voters though that slips to just 3% when you look at just decided and leaning voters. This is one to watch.”

MOUNT ROYAL“Right now Anthony Housefather is running away with the race in Mount Royal” continued Valentin. “This has long been a Liberal fortress, and Housefather is holding a 15% lead among all voters. A significant amount of voters are leaning towards him as well (40%) - an unusually high number among undecided voters compared to other riding polls we have done. The Conservatives‘ best hope for a seat on the Island of Montréal looks out of reach for now.”

RICHMOND ARTHABASKA“The Conservatives are running a star candidate - Alain Rayes, mayor of Victoriaville and right now the political gamble for Rayes is paying o�. His 12% lead is all the more significant when you factor in a low level of undecided voters in the riding. Conservative numbers will need to hold up for Rayes to be successful, but with Conservative numbers so low in the province it looks like right now most of his support comes from his own personal personality.”

Please note: Mainstreet was unable to verify a Green Party candidate at the time this survey was conducted and the name of the 2011 Green Party candidate was substituted.

ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.

Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Available for phone interview: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

A2

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

A3

WILLIAM MOUGHRABI (CPC)MARIA MOURANI (NDP)MELANIE JOLY (LPC)NICOLAS BOURDON (BQ)GILLES MERCIER (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

WILLIAM MOUGHRABI (CPC)MARIA MOURANI (NDP)MELANIE JOLY (LPC)NICOLAS BOURDON (BQ)GILLES MERCIER (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain12%36%28%12%3%9%

Likely15%17%50%9%0%9%

Unlikely0%39%32%24%2%2%

Might24%38%27%5%0%7%

Moughrabi Mourani Joly Bourdon UndecidedMercier

AHUNTSIC CARTIERVILLE

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

All Voters Decided & Leaning

12%

35%

30%

12%

2% 9% 13%

37%

34%

13%

3%

18-3416%44%28%12%8%9%96

35-4911%42%19%11%1%

18%151

50-6410%27%32%12%1%

14%208

65+10%17%47%11%3%9%243

Female9%35%30%11%3%11%377

Male15%33%30%12%2%7%321

FR10%35%27%18%1%9%576

ENG11%13%56%0%3%16%122

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDON’T KNOW

CPC66%28%6%

NDP75%20%6%

BQ68%29%3%

LPC64%27%9%

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

A4

AHUNTSIC CARTIERVILLE

Moughrabi Mourani Joly Bourdon UndecidedMercier

3%

19%

3%

6%

70%


A5

ROBERT LIBMAN (CPC)MARIO JACINTO RIMBAO (NDP)ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER (LPC)JADE BOSSÉ-BÉLANGER (BQ)JOHN TROMP (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

ROBERT LIBMAN (CPC)MARIO JACINTO RIMBAO (NDP)ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER (LPC)JADE BOSSÉ-BÉLANGER (BQ)JOHN TROMP (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain25%12%39%6%1%

18%

Likely16%19%38%5%0%21%

Unlikely18%9%

47%4%0%22%

Might35%3%

37%0%0%26%

Libman Rimbao Housefather Bossé-Bélanger UndecidedTromp

MOUNT ROYAL

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0


24%

12%

39%

6% 1% 19%

27%

16%

50%

7% 2%

18-3412%14%48%5%1%

21%102

35-4931%13%36%7%1%

14%119

50-6429%12%31%7%0%21%200

65+29%9%38%5%0%19%250

Female21%11%43%5%1%

19%349

Male27%13%35%7%0%18%322

FR24%21%28%7%0%21%175

ENG28%7%

44%2%1%

18%496



CPC62%35%3%

NDP54%43%3%

BQ73%26%1%

LPC64%32%4%


A6

MOUNT ROYAL

Libman Rimbao Housefather Bossé-Bélanger UndecidedTromp

5%

14%

40%2%

38%


A7

ALAIN RAYES (CPC)MYRIAM BEAULIEU (NDP)MARC DESMARAIS (LPC)OLIVIER NOLIN (BQ)TOMY BOMBARDIER (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3450%39%6%6%2%2%85

35-4943%27%8%9%3%11%153

50-6435%26%11%12%1%

18%203

65+39%26%6%8%3%15%227

Female38%32%6%8%2%14%350

Male46%27%6%9%2%9%318

ALAIN RAYES (CPC)MYRIAM BEAULIEU (NDP)MARC DESMARAIS (LPC)OLIVIER NOLIN (BQ)TOMY BOMBARDIER (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain43%28%6%9%2%11%

Likely36%40%4%7%4%9%

Unlikely32%30%8%11%0%19%

Might37%39%3%6%0%16%

Rayes Beaulieu Desmarais Noulin UndecidedBombardier

RICHMOND ARTHABASKA

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0


42%

30%

6% 9%

2%

11%

46%

35%

7% 10% 2%



CPC71%18%12%

NDP69%18%13%

BQ71%19%10%

LPC78%16%6%


A8

RICHMOND ARTHABASKA

Rayes Beaulieu Desmarais Noulin UndecidedBombardier

5%

22%

7%

2%

64%

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?CertainLikelyMight

Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today? William Moughrabi of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Maria Mourani of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Melanie Joly of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Nicolas Bourdon of the Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe Gilles Mercier of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]William Moughrabi of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

Maria Mourani of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Melanie Joly of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Nicolas Bourdon of the Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe Gilles Mercier of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED ONLY]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Don’t know

AHUNTSIC CARTIERVILLE SCRIPT

A9


Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today? Robert Libman of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

Mario Jacinto Rimbao of the NDP led by Tom MulcairAnthony Housefather of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau

Jade Bossé-Bélanger of the Bloc Québécois led by Gilles DuceppeJohn Tromp of the Green Party led Elizabeth May

Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]Robert Libman of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

Mario Jacinto Rimbao of the NDP led by Tom MulcairAnthony Housefather of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau

Jade Bossé-Bélanger of the Bloc Québécois led by Gilles DuceppeJohn Tromp of the Green Party led Elizabeth May

Undecided



Don’t know

MOUNT ROYAL SCRIPT

A10


Unlikely

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today? Alain Rayes of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Myriam Beaulieu of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Marc Desmarais of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Olivier Nolin of the Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe Tomy Bombardier of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]Alain Rayes of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

Myriam Beaulieu of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Marc Desmarais of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Olivier Nolin of the Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe Tomy Bombardier of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided



Don’t know

RICHMOND ARTHABASKA SCRIPT

A11

© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.

Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Mainstreet Quebec Riding Polls