Making Sense of Nonsense · Making Sense of Nonsense: An Analytical View of Eastern Idaho’s Labor Market. Data Revolution • Every Minute: 204 Million email messages 4 Million

Making Sense of Nonsense:An Analytical View of Eastern Idaho’s

Labor Market

Data Revolution

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What is “Big Data”?

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What is “Big Data”?

Source: CSC

Not-So-Noteworthy Findings

False confessions may lead to more errors

in evidence!!!

Source: Time Magazine


Freeway air is bad for mice brains!!!



Pigeons can discriminate between “good” and “bad”

paintings by children!!!Source: Time Magazine


Leaving a third of your food on the plate can cut calories by 33%!!!



University of Michigan• 1.3 million records spanning 10 years• If bitten by cat, 41.3% chance of being

diagnosed with Depression• 50% chance for women



Cats are the DEVIL!!!


Current Labor Market Conditions

Industry Makeup: 2015

1%

4%

3%

5%

6%

9%

9%

11%

14%

12%

17%

1%

3%

3%

3%

5%

6%

9%

10%

14%

17%

19%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Information

Financial Activities

Transportation…

Natural Resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Education

Leisure Hospitality

Health Care

Professional Business…

Trade

Ran

ked

by

Shar

e o

f Em

plo

ymen

t

Eastern Idaho

Idaho

Source: IDOL, QCEW 2015

Industry Wage by Share of Emp.

$34,864

$42,486

$35,151

$36,446

$37,887

$37,533

$33,300

$13,868

$34,464

$62,114

$31,928

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Information


Transportation…

Natural Resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Education

Leisure Hospitality

Health Care


Trade

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

Ran

ked

by

Shar

e o

f Em

plo

ymen

t

Source: IDOL, QCEW 2015

Employment by Wage – E.I.

7%

22%

12%

8%

8%

7%

5%

9%

7%

4%

3%

2%

2%

4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$51 or more

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, 2014

Avg. Wage:US: $51,360Idaho: $38,790EI: $37,530

9.0%

17.4%

22.7%

12.8%

49.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

U.S. Idaho Bonneville County Idaho Falls Ammon

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, EMSI

Population Growth: 2004-2014

Source: EMSI


2.6%

12.5%

26.8%

7.1%11.4%

17.9%

27.8%

45.5%42.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Nation Idaho BonnevilleCounty

15 and under 16-64 65 and over

Source: EMSI


4.1%

17.3%

37.0%

6.7% 13.1%20.5%

65.2%

100.5%90.3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

US Idaho Bonneville County

15 and under 16-64 65 and over

10.0% 9.7%

7.1%

5.0%3.8%

3.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

U.S. Idaho Bonneville County

Recession High Mar-16

Unemployment Rates

Oct 2009

June 2009

Nov 2010

Source: www.bls.gov

Tightening Labor Market

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Eastern Idaho’s Labor MarketTotal Unemployed Total Job Openings

Source: Help Wanted Analytics, Idaho Department of Labor

Tightening Labor Market

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Unemployed to Job Openings:Eastern Idaho

Source: HWOL, IDOL

Industry NeedsSkill gaps:• Mathematics• Writing• Engineering• Machining• Welding• Programming

• Soft Skills

Industry Needs

Socially Awkward!

Soft Skills GapAwkward Handshakes

Soft Skills GapPersonal Space

Soft Skills GapDon’t Pay Attention

Soft Skills Gap

Soft Skills Gap

Millennials

Millennials

Millennials

Millennials

Source: Goldman Sachs

Millennials


Millennials


Millennials


Millennials


Millennials

50%

16%

27%


Millennials

13%

38%

26%


Millennials

33%

44%

17%


Millennials

23%

35%37%


Millennials


U.S. Labor Force by Generation

Source: Pew Research Center

Idaho Projections

Projections Explained by a Millennial

Projections Explained by a Millennial

Idaho Jobs and Workforce Growth

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Workforce: Ages 16-64 Job Growth

Workforce Gap

109,000

17,600

91

,40

0

Population Forecasts - EMSI August 2014 and Jobs Forecast – Idaho Department of Labor, August 2014

Industry Projections: 2012-2022• Percent Growth

Source: IDOL

4.0%10.3%

11.0%12.5%

13.5%14.2%14.4%

15.9%17.3%

18.1%19.5%

24.2%26.5%

44.1%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Public Administration

Educational Services

Manufacturing

Transport/Warehousing

Wholesale Trade

Natural Resources & Mining

Information

Professional/Business Services

Utilities


Retail Trade

Leisure/Hospitality

Health Care/Social Assistance

Construction

14%

18%

10%

15%

16%

18%

24%

11%

26%

13%

44%

16%

7%

10%

14%

16%

18%

19%

20%

21%

23%

39%

53%

19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

InformationFinancial Activities

EducationNatural Resources

Professional Business…Trade

Leisure HospitalityManufacturing

Health CareTransportation…

ConstructionTotal

Projected Job Growth by Industry: 2012-2022

Eastern Idaho

Idaho

Regional Comparison

Source: IDOL, Regional Projections

2012-2022 Industry Projections

7%

10%

14%

16%

18%

19%

20%

21%

23%

39%

53%

19%

Information


Education

Natural Resources


Trade

Leisure Hospitality

Manufacturing

Health Care

Transportation…

Construction

Total Industry

Eastern Idaho’s Growth Rate by Industry


2012-2022 Industry Projections

90

280

460

930

940

1,080

1,540

1,980

2,310

2,500

2,990

16,540

Information


Natural Resources

Transportation…

Manufacturing

Education

Leisure Hospitality

Construction

Health Care


Trade

Total Industry

Eastern Idaho’s Net Growth by Industry


2012-2022 Occupation Projections

Source: IDOL, Regional Occupation Projections 110 190 250 280 300 390 400 440 510 640 740 780 800 810 880 970

1,210 1,410 1,500 1,670

1,940 16,540

LegalArts, Design,Entertainment,Sports…

Life, Physical,Social ScienceCommunity,Social Service

Protective ServiceArchitecture,Engineering

Building,Grounds Cleaning,MaintenanceHealthcare Support

Computer,MathematicalBusiness,Financial Operations

Installation,Maintenance,RepairPersonal Care Service

ProductionEducation, Training,Library

Healthcare Practitioners,TechnicalManagement

Food Preparation,Serving RelatedConstruction,Extraction

Transportation,Material MovingSales,Related

Office,Administrative SupportTotal

Eastern Idaho

110190

250

280

300

390

400

440

510

640

740

780

800

810

880

970

1,210

1,410

1,500

1,6701,940

LegalArts, Design,Entertainment,Sports…

Life, Physical,Social ScienceCommunity,Social Service

Protective ServiceArchitecture,Engineering

Building,Grounds Cleaning,MaintenanceHealthcare Support

Computer,MathematicalBusiness,Financial Operations

Installation,Maintenance,RepairPersonal Care Service

ProductionEducation, Training,Library

Healthcare Practitioners,TechnicalManagement

Food Preparation,Serving RelatedConstruction,Extraction

Transportation,Material MovingSales,Related

Office,Administrative Support

Eastern Idaho


2012-2022 Occupation Projections

2012-2022 Annual Openings by Occupation

LegalArts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, Media

Community, Social ServiceLife, Physical, Social Science

Computer, MathematicalProtective Service

Architecture, EngineeringHealthcare Support

Building, Grounds Cleaning, MaintenanceBusiness, Financial Operations

Personal Care, ServiceInstallation, Maintenance, Repair

ManagementProduction

Healthcare Practitioners, TechnicalEducation, Training, Library

Construction, ExtractionTransportation, Material Moving

Food Preparation, Serving RelatedSales, Related

Office, Administrative SupportTotal, All

Replacement

Growth

490420

360280

200190180170170150

120120

9090908080706040

20

3,510


2012-2022 Annual Openings by Occupation

1020

3050

30

50

50

40

50

60

40

80

80

90

90

11060

130240

260290

1020

3020

50

30

40

40

40

60

80

70

90

80

90

80140

150120

160200

LegalArts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, Media

Community, Social ServiceLife, Physical, Social Science

Computer, MathematicalProtective Service

Architecture, EngineeringHealthcare Support

Building, Grounds Cleaning, MaintenanceBusiness, Financial Operations

Personal Care, ServiceInstallation, Maintenance, Repair

ManagementProduction

Healthcare Practitioners, TechnicalEducation, Training, Library

Construction, ExtractionTransportation, Material Moving

Food Preparation, Serving RelatedSales, Related

Office, Administrative Support

Ran

k b

y To

tal A

nn

ual

Op

enin

gs

Replacement

Growth


How Are We Doing?

67

155

145

127

747

399

199

831

239

411

549

4,664

(108)

(34)

130

199

265

490

805

822

859

969

1,357

5,745

(1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

InformationNatural ResourcesFinancial Activities

Transportation WarehousingProfessional Business Services

EducationConstruction

TradeManufacturing

Leisure HospitalityHealth Care

Total Industry

Actual Vs Projected Growth in E.I.: 2012-2015

Actual

Projected

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, QCEW

How Are We Doing?

(200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Information

Natural Resources


Transportation Warehousing

Professional Business Services

Education

Construction

Trade

Manufacturing

Leisure Hospitality

Health Care

Actual Vs Projected Growth in E.I.: 2012-2015

Actual

Projected

810

560

620

(10)

610

90

(480)

70

(10)

(190)

(170)

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, QCEW

Rank Occupation2022

EmploymentAnnual

OpeningsPercentChange

2014 Median Wage

Typical Entry LevelEducation/Degree

1 Pharmacists 1,763 75 32.4% $55.31 Doctorate/Professional

2 Registered Nurses 15,511 562 26.4% $28.79 Associate’s

3 Physical Therapists 1,502 64 31.5% $37.96 Doctorate/Professional

4 Software Developers, Applications 2,117 60 22.2% $32.84 Bachelor’s

5 Physician Assistants 899 34 33.0% $43.91 Master’s

6 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2,336 107 30.6% $22.78 High School Diploma

7 Electricians 3,746 139 29.1% $21.81 High School Diploma

8 Dental Hygienists 1,357 53 21.6% $34.70 Associate’s

9 Market Research Analysts & Marketing Specialists 1,959 67 31.9% $23.55 Bachelor’s

10 Nurse Practitioners 723 28 30.0% $43.89 Master’s

11 Computer Systems Analysts 1,263 39 21.8% $36.47 Bachelor’s

11 Electrical Power-Line Installers & Repairers 1,002 47 21.2% $39.00 High School Diploma

13 Cost Estimators 1,241 62 35.6% $23.97 Bachelor’s Degree

14Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Except Technical &Scientific Products

7,223 229 18.0% $23.40 High School Diploma

15 Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 841 32 19.8% NA Doctorate/ProfessionalSource: Idaho Department of Labor, Communications & Research Division, 2012

Idaho Hot Jobs

1Hot Jobs: Jobs that on average rank high in three major criteria — the abundance of jobs in the economy, jobs that are growing the fastest and jobs with the highest pay. 2Average annual job openings include new jobs plus replacement jobs.

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Communications & Research Division, 2012

Rank Occupation2022

EmploymentAnnual

OpeningsPercent Change

2014 Median Wage

1 Software Developers, Applications 479 17 34% $27.302 Electricians 532 23 42% $21.373 Registered Nurses 1792 61 22% $26.324 Civil Engineers 330 13 27% $38.355 Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators 360 14 30% $23.716 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 2336 79 26% $16.747 Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 306 11 38% $25.478 Carpenters 935 33 37% $16.269 Computer User Support Specialists 477 17 30% $19.94

10 Software Developers, Systems Software 231 7 30% NA11 Dental Hygienists 193 9 35% $32.5212 Construction Laborers 1029 46 41% $13.1713 Logging Equipment Operators 310 11 30% NA14 Physical Therapists 176 8 35% $37.86

15 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Tech. & Sci. Products 1190 39 20% $21.84

East Idaho Hot Jobs

Education Utilization

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce

32%

10% 11% 12%

40%

34% 30% 24%

19%17%

18%

12%

8%10%

12%

9%

19% 21% 24%

7% 10% 11% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1973 1992 2010 2020

Required Training Level for U.S. Jobs

Master's degree orhigherBachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some college/no degree

All Postsecondary

High school diploma

Less than high school

28%

56% 59% 65%

Education “Go On” Rates

Source: Idaho State Board of Education, 2014

62%

52%48%

36%

45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

U.S. Idaho Counties Bonneville Bingham Bannock

% E

NR

OLL

ED 1

6 M

ON

THS

AFT

ER H

IGH

SC

HO

OL

GR

AD

UA

TIO

N

Idaho Jobs and Workforce Growth

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Workforce: Ages 16-64 Job Growth

Workforce Gap

109,000

17,600

91

,40

0

Population Forecasts - EMSI August 2014 and Jobs Forecast – Idaho Department of Labor, August 2014

Thank

you! Chris St. [email protected]

208.557.2500 ext. 3077

Documents

Making Sense of Nonsense · Making Sense of Nonsense: An Analytical View of Eastern Idaho’s Labor Market. Data Revolution • Every Minute: 204 Million email messages 4 Million